Daily Papers

Code Agent development is an extremely active research area, where a reliable performance metric is critical for tracking progress and guiding new developments. This demand is underscored by the meteoric rise in popularity of SWE-Bench. This benchmark challenges code agents to generate patches addressing GitHub issues given the full repository as context. The correctness of generated patches is then evaluated by executing a human-written test suite extracted from the repository after the issue's resolution. However, constructing benchmarks like SWE-Bench requires substantial manual effort to set up historically accurate execution environments for testing. Crucially, this severely limits the number of considered repositories, e.g., just 12 for SWE-Bench. Considering so few repositories, selected for their popularity runs the risk of leading to a distributional mismatch, i.e., the measured performance may not be representative of real-world scenarios potentially misguiding development efforts. In this work, we address this challenge and introduce SetUpAgent, a fully automated system capable of historically accurate dependency setup, test execution, and result parsing. Using SetUpAgent, we generate two new datasets: (i) SWEE-Bench an extended version of SWE-Bench encompassing hundreds of repositories, and (ii) SWA-Bench a benchmark focusing on applications rather than libraries. Comparing these datasets to SWE-Bench with respect to their characteristics and code agent performance, we find significant distributional differences, including lower issue description quality and detail level, higher fix complexity, and most importantly up to 40% lower agent success rates.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems have advanced large language models (LLMs) in complex deep search scenarios requiring multi-step reasoning and iterative information retrieval. However, existing approaches face critical limitations that lack high-quality training trajectories or suffer from the distributional mismatches in simulated environments and prohibitive computational costs for real-world deployment. This paper introduces SimpleDeepSearcher, a lightweight yet effective framework that bridges this gap through strategic data engineering rather than complex training paradigms. Our approach synthesizes high-quality training data by simulating realistic user interactions in live web search environments, coupled with a multi-criteria curation strategy that optimizes the diversity and quality of input and output side. Experiments on five benchmarks across diverse domains demonstrate that SFT on only 871 curated samples yields significant improvements over RL-based baselines. Our work establishes SFT as a viable pathway by systematically addressing the data-scarce bottleneck, offering practical insights for efficient deep search systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/RUCAIBox/SimpleDeepSearcher.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Reward (RLVR) has significantly advanced the complex reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, it struggles to break through the inherent capability boundaries of the base LLM, due to its essentially on-policy strategy coupled with LLM's immense action space and sparse reward. Critically, RLVR can lead to the capability boundary collapse, narrowing the LLM's problem-solving scope. To address this problem, we propose RL-PLUS, a novel hybrid-policy optimization approach for LLMs that synergizes internal exploitation with external data to achieve stronger reasoning capabilities and surpass the boundaries of base models. RL-PLUS integrates two core components, i.e., Multiple Importance Sampling to address distributional mismatch from external data, and Exploration-Based Advantage Function to guide the model towards high-value, unexplored reasoning paths. We provide both theoretical analysis and extensive experiments to demonstrate the superiority and generalizability of our approach. Compared with existing RLVR methods, RL-PLUS achieves 1) state-of-the-art performance on six math reasoning benchmarks; 2) superior performance on six out-of-distribution reasoning tasks; 3) consistent and significant gains across diverse model families, with average relative improvements up to 69.2\%. Moreover, the analysis of Pass@k curves indicates that RL-PLUS effectively resolves the capability boundary collapse problem.

In this work, we propose Reciprocal Distribution Alignment (RDA) to address semi-supervised learning (SSL), which is a hyperparameter-free framework that is independent of confidence threshold and works with both the matched (conventionally) and the mismatched class distributions. Distribution mismatch is an often overlooked but more general SSL scenario where the labeled and the unlabeled data do not fall into the identical class distribution. This may lead to the model not exploiting the labeled data reliably and drastically degrade the performance of SSL methods, which could not be rescued by the traditional distribution alignment. In RDA, we enforce a reciprocal alignment on the distributions of the predictions from two classifiers predicting pseudo-labels and complementary labels on the unlabeled data. These two distributions, carrying complementary information, could be utilized to regularize each other without any prior of class distribution. Moreover, we theoretically show that RDA maximizes the input-output mutual information. Our approach achieves promising performance in SSL under a variety of scenarios of mismatched distributions, as well as the conventional matched SSL setting. Our code is available at: https://github.com/NJUyued/RDA4RobustSSL.

A diffusion model learns to predict a vector field of gradients. We propose to apply chain rule on the learned gradients, and back-propagate the score of a diffusion model through the Jacobian of a differentiable renderer, which we instantiate to be a voxel radiance field. This setup aggregates 2D scores at multiple camera viewpoints into a 3D score, and repurposes a pretrained 2D model for 3D data generation. We identify a technical challenge of distribution mismatch that arises in this application, and propose a novel estimation mechanism to resolve it. We run our algorithm on several off-the-shelf diffusion image generative models, including the recently released Stable Diffusion trained on the large-scale LAION dataset.

Dataset distillation has emerged as a powerful approach for reducing data requirements in deep learning. Among various methods, distribution matching-based approaches stand out for their balance of computational efficiency and strong performance. However, existing distance metrics used in distribution matching often fail to accurately capture distributional differences, leading to unreliable measures of discrepancy. In this paper, we reformulate dataset distillation as a minmax optimization problem and introduce Neural Characteristic Function Discrepancy (NCFD), a comprehensive and theoretically grounded metric for measuring distributional differences. NCFD leverages the Characteristic Function (CF) to encapsulate full distributional information, employing a neural network to optimize the sampling strategy for the CF's frequency arguments, thereby maximizing the discrepancy to enhance distance estimation. Simultaneously, we minimize the difference between real and synthetic data under this optimized NCFD measure. Our approach, termed Neural Characteristic Function Matching (), inherently aligns the phase and amplitude of neural features in the complex plane for both real and synthetic data, achieving a balance between realism and diversity in synthetic samples. Experiments demonstrate that our method achieves significant performance gains over state-of-the-art methods on both low- and high-resolution datasets. Notably, we achieve a 20.5\% accuracy boost on ImageSquawk. Our method also reduces GPU memory usage by over 300times and achieves 20times faster processing speeds compared to state-of-the-art methods. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to achieve lossless compression of CIFAR-100 on a single NVIDIA 2080 Ti GPU using only 2.3 GB of memory.

Language models (LMs) are increasingly used as simulacra for people, yet their ability to match the distribution of views of a specific demographic group and be distributionally aligned remains uncertain. This notion of distributional alignment is complex, as there is significant variation in the types of attributes that are simulated. Prior works have underexplored the role of three critical variables -- the question domain, steering method, and distribution expression method -- which motivates our contribution of a benchmark explicitly addressing these dimensions. We construct a dataset expanding beyond political values, create human baselines for this task, and evaluate the extent to which an LM can align with a particular group's opinion distribution to inform design choices of such simulation systems. Our analysis reveals open problems regarding if, and how, LMs can be used to simulate humans, and that LLMs can more accurately describe the opinion distribution than simulate such distributions.

Models trained on different datasets can be merged by a weighted-averaging of their parameters, but why does it work and when can it fail? Here, we connect the inaccuracy of weighted-averaging to mismatches in the gradients and propose a new uncertainty-based scheme to improve the performance by reducing the mismatch. The connection also reveals implicit assumptions in other schemes such as averaging, task arithmetic, and Fisher-weighted averaging. Our new method gives consistent improvements for large language models and vision transformers, both in terms of performance and robustness to hyperparameters.

Distribution shifts -- where the training distribution differs from the test distribution -- can substantially degrade the accuracy of machine learning (ML) systems deployed in the wild. Despite their ubiquity in the real-world deployments, these distribution shifts are under-represented in the datasets widely used in the ML community today. To address this gap, we present WILDS, a curated benchmark of 10 datasets reflecting a diverse range of distribution shifts that naturally arise in real-world applications, such as shifts across hospitals for tumor identification; across camera traps for wildlife monitoring; and across time and location in satellite imaging and poverty mapping. On each dataset, we show that standard training yields substantially lower out-of-distribution than in-distribution performance. This gap remains even with models trained by existing methods for tackling distribution shifts, underscoring the need for new methods for training models that are more robust to the types of distribution shifts that arise in practice. To facilitate method development, we provide an open-source package that automates dataset loading, contains default model architectures and hyperparameters, and standardizes evaluations. Code and leaderboards are available at https://wilds.stanford.edu.

The rapid adoption of text-to-image diffusion models in society underscores an urgent need to address their biases. Without interventions, these biases could propagate a skewed worldview and restrict opportunities for minority groups. In this work, we frame fairness as a distributional alignment problem. Our solution consists of two main technical contributions: (1) a distributional alignment loss that steers specific characteristics of the generated images towards a user-defined target distribution, and (2) adjusted direct finetuning of diffusion model's sampling process (adjusted DFT), which leverages an adjusted gradient to directly optimize losses defined on the generated images. Empirically, our method markedly reduces gender, racial, and their intersectional biases for occupational prompts. Gender bias is significantly reduced even when finetuning just five soft tokens. Crucially, our method supports diverse perspectives of fairness beyond absolute equality, which is demonstrated by controlling age to a 75% young and 25% old distribution while simultaneously debiasing gender and race. Finally, our method is scalable: it can debias multiple concepts at once by simply including these prompts in the finetuning data. We share code and various fair diffusion model adaptors at https://sail-sg.github.io/finetune-fair-diffusion/.

As black-box models increasingly power high-stakes applications, a variety of data-driven explanation methods have been introduced. Meanwhile, machine learning models are constantly challenged by distributional shifts. A question naturally arises: Are data-driven explanations robust against out-of-distribution data? Our empirical results show that even though predict correctly, the model might still yield unreliable explanations under distributional shifts. How to develop robust explanations against out-of-distribution data? To address this problem, we propose an end-to-end model-agnostic learning framework Distributionally Robust Explanations (DRE). The key idea is, inspired by self-supervised learning, to fully utilizes the inter-distribution information to provide supervisory signals for the learning of explanations without human annotation. Can robust explanations benefit the model's generalization capability? We conduct extensive experiments on a wide range of tasks and data types, including classification and regression on image and scientific tabular data. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly improves the model's performance in terms of explanation and prediction robustness against distributional shifts.

Transferring reasoning capabilities from larger language models to smaller ones through supervised fine-tuning often fails counterintuitively, with performance degrading despite access to high-quality teacher demonstrations. We identify that this failure stems from distributional misalignment: reasoning traces from larger models contain tokens that are low probability under the student's distribution, exceeding the internal representation capacity of smaller architectures and creating learning barriers rather than helpful guidance. We propose Reverse Speculative Decoding (RSD), a mechanism for generating student-friendly reasoning traces in which the teacher model proposes candidate tokens but the student model determines acceptance based on its own probability distributions, filtering low probability tokens. When applied to Qwen3-0.6B, direct distillation of s1K-1.1 reasoning trace data degrades average performance across major reasoning benchmarks by 20.5\%, while the same model trained on RSD-generated reasoning traces achieves meaningful improvements of 4.9\%. Our analysis reveals that low probability tokens constitute the critical bottleneck in reasoning ability transfer. However, cross-model experiments demonstrate that RSD traces are model-specific rather than universally applicable, indicating that distributional alignment must be tailored for each student architecture's unique internal representation.

Understanding the performance of machine learning (ML) models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Despite recent empirical studies positing a near-perfect linear correlation between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracies, we empirically demonstrate that this correlation is more nuanced under subpopulation shifts. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis across a variety of datasets, models, and training epochs, we demonstrate that OOD performance often has a nonlinear correlation with ID performance in subpopulation shifts. Our findings, which contrast previous studies that have posited a linear correlation in model performance during distribution shifts, reveal a "moon shape" correlation (parabolic uptrend curve) between the test performance on the majority subpopulation and the minority subpopulation. This non-trivial nonlinear correlation holds across model architectures, hyperparameters, training durations, and the imbalance between subpopulations. Furthermore, we found that the nonlinearity of this "moon shape" is causally influenced by the degree of spurious correlations in the training data. Our controlled experiments show that stronger spurious correlation in the training data creates more nonlinear performance correlation. We provide complementary experimental and theoretical analyses for this phenomenon, and discuss its implications for ML reliability and fairness. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear effects of model improvement on performance in different subpopulations, and has the potential to inform the development of more equitable and responsible machine learning models.

Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates x) of training and testing samples p_tr(x) and p_te(x) are different but the label conditionals coincide. Existing approaches address such covariate shift by either using the ratio p_te(x)/p_tr(x) to weight training samples (reweighted methods) or using the ratio p_tr(x)/p_te(x) to weight testing samples (robust methods). However, the performance of such approaches can be poor under support mismatch or when the above ratios take large values. We propose a minimax risk classification (MRC) approach for covariate shift adaptation that avoids such limitations by weighting both training and testing samples. In addition, we develop effective techniques that obtain both sets of weights and generalize the conventional kernel mean matching method. We provide novel generalization bounds for our method that show a significant increase in the effective sample size compared with reweighted methods. The proposed method also achieves enhanced classification performance in both synthetic and empirical experiments.

Aligning large language models with human preferences is critical for creating reliable and controllable AI systems. A human preference can be visualized as a high-dimensional vector where different directions represent trade-offs between desired attributes (e.g., helpfulness vs. verbosity). Yet, because the training data often reflects dominant, average preferences, LLMs tend to perform well on common requests but fall short in specific, individual needs. This mismatch creates a preference coverage gap. Existing methods often address this through costly retraining, which may not be generalized to the full spectrum of diverse preferences. This brittleness means that when a user's request reflects a nuanced preference deviating from the training data's central tendency, model performance can degrade unpredictably. To address this challenge, we introduce Robust Preference Selection (RPS), a post-hoc, training-free method by leveraging directional neighborhood consensus. Instead of forcing a model to generate a response from a single, highly specific preference, RPS samples multiple responses from a local neighborhood of related preferences to create a superior candidate pool. It then selects the response that best aligns with the user's original intent. We provide a theoretical framework showing our neighborhood generation strategy is provably superior to a strong baseline that also samples multiple candidates. Comprehensive experiments across three distinct alignment paradigms (DPA, DPO, and SFT) demonstrate that RPS consistently improves robustness against this baseline, achieving win rates of up to 69% on challenging preferences from under-represented regions of the space without any model retraining. Our work presents a practical, theoretically-grounded solution for enhancing the reliability of preference-aligned models.

Most visual generative models compress images into a latent space before applying diffusion or autoregressive modelling. Yet, existing approaches such as VAEs and foundation model aligned encoders implicitly constrain the latent space without explicitly shaping its distribution, making it unclear which types of distributions are optimal for modeling. We introduce Distribution-Matching VAE (DMVAE), which explicitly aligns the encoder's latent distribution with an arbitrary reference distribution via a distribution matching constraint. This generalizes beyond the Gaussian prior of conventional VAEs, enabling alignment with distributions derived from self-supervised features, diffusion noise, or other prior distributions. With DMVAE, we can systematically investigate which latent distributions are more conducive to modeling, and we find that SSL-derived distributions provide an excellent balance between reconstruction fidelity and modeling efficiency, reaching gFID equals 3.2 on ImageNet with only 64 training epochs. Our results suggest that choosing a suitable latent distribution structure (achieved via distribution-level alignment), rather than relying on fixed priors, is key to bridging the gap between easy-to-model latents and high-fidelity image synthesis. Code is avaliable at https://github.com/sen-ye/dmvae.

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

In machine learning, generalization against distribution shifts -- where deployment conditions diverge from the training scenarios -- is crucial, particularly in fields like climate modeling, biomedicine, and autonomous driving. The emergence of foundation models, distinguished by their extensive pretraining and task versatility, has led to an increased interest in their adaptability to distribution shifts. GPT-4V(ision) acts as the most advanced publicly accessible multimodal foundation model, with extensive applications across various domains, including anomaly detection, video understanding, image generation, and medical diagnosis. However, its robustness against data distributions remains largely underexplored. Addressing this gap, this study rigorously evaluates GPT-4V's adaptability and generalization capabilities in dynamic environments, benchmarking against prominent models like CLIP and LLaVA. We delve into GPT-4V's zero-shot generalization across 13 diverse datasets spanning natural, medical, and molecular domains. We further investigate its adaptability to controlled data perturbations and examine the efficacy of in-context learning as a tool to enhance its adaptation. Our findings delineate GPT-4V's capability boundaries in distribution shifts, shedding light on its strengths and limitations across various scenarios. Importantly, this investigation contributes to our understanding of how AI foundation models generalize to distribution shifts, offering pivotal insights into their adaptability and robustness. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/jameszhou-gl/gpt-4v-distribution-shift.

When the performance of a machine learning model varies over groups defined by sensitive attributes (e.g., gender or ethnicity), the performance disparity can be expressed in terms of the probability distributions of the input and output variables over each group. In this paper, we exploit this fact to reduce the disparate impact of a fixed classification model over a population of interest. Given a black-box classifier, we aim to eliminate the performance gap by perturbing the distribution of input variables for the disadvantaged group. We refer to the perturbed distribution as a counterfactual distribution, and characterize its properties for common fairness criteria. We introduce a descent algorithm to learn a counterfactual distribution from data. We then discuss how the estimated distribution can be used to build a data preprocessor that can reduce disparate impact without training a new model. We validate our approach through experiments on real-world datasets, showing that it can repair different forms of disparity without a significant drop in accuracy.

Semi-Supervised Learning (SSL) under class distribution mismatch aims to tackle a challenging problem wherein unlabeled data contain lots of unknown categories unseen in the labeled ones. In such mismatch scenarios, traditional SSL suffers severe performance damage due to the harmful invasion of the instances with unknown categories into the target classifier. In this study, by strict mathematical reasoning, we reveal that the SSL error under class distribution mismatch is composed of pseudo-labeling error and invasion error, both of which jointly bound the SSL population risk. To alleviate the SSL error, we propose a robust SSL framework called Weight-Aware Distillation (WAD) that, by weights, selectively transfers knowledge beneficial to the target task from unsupervised contrastive representation to the target classifier. Specifically, WAD captures adaptive weights and high-quality pseudo labels to target instances by exploring point mutual information (PMI) in representation space to maximize the role of unlabeled data and filter unknown categories. Theoretically, we prove that WAD has a tight upper bound of population risk under class distribution mismatch. Experimentally, extensive results demonstrate that WAD outperforms five state-of-the-art SSL approaches and one standard baseline on two benchmark datasets, CIFAR10 and CIFAR100, and an artificial cross-dataset. The code is available at https://github.com/RUC-DWBI-ML/research/tree/main/WAD-master.

Large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT have exhibited remarkable performance in generating human-like texts. However, machine-generated texts (MGTs) may carry critical risks, such as plagiarism issues, misleading information, or hallucination issues. Therefore, it is very urgent and important to detect MGTs in many situations. Unfortunately, it is challenging to distinguish MGTs and human-written texts because the distributional discrepancy between them is often very subtle due to the remarkable performance of LLMs. In this paper, we seek to exploit maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) to address this issue in the sense that MMD can well identify distributional discrepancies. However, directly training a detector with MMD using diverse MGTs will incur a significantly increased variance of MMD since MGTs may contain multiple text populations due to various LLMs. This will severely impair MMD's ability to measure the difference between two samples. To tackle this, we propose a novel multi-population aware optimization method for MMD called MMD-MP, which can avoid variance increases and thus improve the stability to measure the distributional discrepancy. Relying on MMD-MP, we develop two methods for paragraph-based and sentence-based detection, respectively. Extensive experiments on various LLMs, \eg, GPT2 and ChatGPT, show superior detection performance of our MMD-MP. The source code is available at https://github.com/ZSHsh98/MMD-MP.

Distributional shift is a central challenge in the deployment of machine learning models as they can be ill-equipped for real-world data. This is particularly evident in text-to-audio generation where the encoded representations are easily undermined by unseen prompts, which leads to the degradation of generated audio -- the limited set of the text-audio pairs remains inadequate for conditional audio generation in the wild as user prompts are under-specified. In particular, we observe a consistent audio quality degradation in generated audio samples with user prompts, as opposed to training set prompts. To this end, we present a retrieval-based in-context prompt editing framework that leverages the training captions as demonstrative exemplars to revisit the user prompts. We show that the framework enhanced the audio quality across the set of collected user prompts, which were edited with reference to the training captions as exemplars.

Recent approaches have shown promises distilling diffusion models into efficient one-step generators. Among them, Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD) produces one-step generators that match their teacher in distribution, without enforcing a one-to-one correspondence with the sampling trajectories of their teachers. However, to ensure stable training, DMD requires an additional regression loss computed using a large set of noise-image pairs generated by the teacher with many steps of a deterministic sampler. This is costly for large-scale text-to-image synthesis and limits the student's quality, tying it too closely to the teacher's original sampling paths. We introduce DMD2, a set of techniques that lift this limitation and improve DMD training. First, we eliminate the regression loss and the need for expensive dataset construction. We show that the resulting instability is due to the fake critic not estimating the distribution of generated samples accurately and propose a two time-scale update rule as a remedy. Second, we integrate a GAN loss into the distillation procedure, discriminating between generated samples and real images. This lets us train the student model on real data, mitigating the imperfect real score estimation from the teacher model, and enhancing quality. Lastly, we modify the training procedure to enable multi-step sampling. We identify and address the training-inference input mismatch problem in this setting, by simulating inference-time generator samples during training time. Taken together, our improvements set new benchmarks in one-step image generation, with FID scores of 1.28 on ImageNet-64x64 and 8.35 on zero-shot COCO 2014, surpassing the original teacher despite a 500X reduction in inference cost. Further, we show our approach can generate megapixel images by distilling SDXL, demonstrating exceptional visual quality among few-step methods.

Deep learning has achieved tremendous success with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. However, the performance of neural networks often degenerates drastically when encountering out-of-distribution (OoD) data, i.e., when training and test data are sampled from different distributions. While a plethora of algorithms have been proposed for OoD generalization, our understanding of the data used to train and evaluate these algorithms remains stagnant. In this work, we first identify and measure two distinct kinds of distribution shifts that are ubiquitous in various datasets. Next, through extensive experiments, we compare OoD generalization algorithms across two groups of benchmarks, each dominated by one of the distribution shifts, revealing their strengths on one shift as well as limitations on the other shift. Overall, we position existing datasets and algorithms from different research areas seemingly unconnected into the same coherent picture. It may serve as a foothold that can be resorted to by future OoD generalization research. Our code is available at https://github.com/ynysjtu/ood_bench.

Aligning language models with preferences can be posed as approximating a target distribution representing some desired behavior. Existing approaches differ both in the functional form of the target distribution and the algorithm used to approximate it. For instance, Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) corresponds to minimizing a reverse KL from an implicit target distribution arising from a KL penalty in the objective. On the other hand, Generative Distributional Control (GDC) has an explicit target distribution and minimizes a forward KL from it using the Distributional Policy Gradient (DPG) algorithm. In this paper, we propose a new approach, f-DPG, which allows the use of any f-divergence to approximate any target distribution that can be evaluated. f-DPG unifies both frameworks (RLHF, GDC) and the approximation methods (DPG, RL with KL penalties). We show the practical benefits of various choices of divergence objectives and demonstrate that there is no universally optimal objective but that different divergences present different alignment and diversity trade-offs. We show that Jensen-Shannon divergence strikes a good balance between these objectives, and frequently outperforms forward KL divergence by a wide margin, leading to significant improvements over prior work. These distinguishing characteristics between divergences persist as the model size increases, highlighting the importance of selecting appropriate divergence objectives.

Aligning generative models with human preference via RLHF typically suffers from overoptimization, where an imperfectly learned reward model can misguide the generative model to output undesired responses. We investigate this problem in a principled manner by identifying the source of the misalignment as a form of distributional shift and uncertainty in learning human preferences. To mitigate overoptimization, we first propose a theoretical algorithm that chooses the best policy for an adversarially chosen reward model; one that simultaneously minimizes the maximum likelihood estimation of the loss and a reward penalty term. Here, the reward penalty term is introduced to prevent the policy from choosing actions with spurious high proxy rewards, resulting in provable sample efficiency of the algorithm under a partial coverage style condition. Moving from theory to practice, the proposed algorithm further enjoys an equivalent but surprisingly easy-to-implement reformulation. Using the equivalence between reward models and the corresponding optimal policy, the algorithm features a simple objective that combines: (i) a preference optimization loss that directly aligns the policy with human preference, and (ii) a supervised learning loss that explicitly imitates the policy with a (suitable) baseline distribution. In the context of aligning large language models (LLM), this objective fuses the direct preference optimization (DPO) loss with the supervised fune-tuning (SFT) loss to help mitigate the overoptimization towards undesired responses, for which we name the algorithm Regularized Preference Optimization (RPO). Experiments of aligning LLMs demonstrate the improved performance of RPO compared with DPO baselines. Our work sheds light on the interplay between preference optimization and SFT in tuning LLMs with both theoretical guarantees and empirical evidence.

ML models often exhibit unexpectedly poor behavior when they are deployed in real-world domains. We identify underspecification as a key reason for these failures. An ML pipeline is underspecified when it can return many predictors with equivalently strong held-out performance in the training domain. Underspecification is common in modern ML pipelines, such as those based on deep learning. Predictors returned by underspecified pipelines are often treated as equivalent based on their training domain performance, but we show here that such predictors can behave very differently in deployment domains. This ambiguity can lead to instability and poor model behavior in practice, and is a distinct failure mode from previously identified issues arising from structural mismatch between training and deployment domains. We show that this problem appears in a wide variety of practical ML pipelines, using examples from computer vision, medical imaging, natural language processing, clinical risk prediction based on electronic health records, and medical genomics. Our results show the need to explicitly account for underspecification in modeling pipelines that are intended for real-world deployment in any domain.

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite intervals, circles, cylinders, spheres, other manifolds, and graphs. This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences between two collections of distributions over such general domains. To this end, we propose the intrinsic slicing construction that yields a novel class of Wasserstein distances on manifolds and graphs. These distances are Hilbert embeddable, allowing us to reduce the distribution collection comparison problem to a more familiar mean testing problem in a Hilbert space. We provide two testing procedures one based on resampling and another on combining p-values from coordinate-wise tests. Our experiments in various synthetic and real data settings show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated.

Masked language models (MLM) do not explicitly define a distribution over language, i.e., they are not language models per se. However, recent work has implicitly treated them as such for the purposes of generation and scoring. This paper studies methods for deriving explicit joint distributions from MLMs, focusing on distributions over two tokens, which makes it possible to calculate exact distributional properties. We find that an approach based on identifying joints whose conditionals are closest to those of the MLM works well and outperforms existing Markov random field-based approaches. We further find that this derived model's conditionals can even occasionally outperform the original MLM's conditionals.

Despite diffusion models' superior capabilities in modeling complex distributions, there are still non-trivial distributional discrepancies between generated and ground-truth images, which has resulted in several notable problems in image generation, including missing object errors in text-to-image generation and low image quality. Existing methods that attempt to address these problems mostly do not tend to address the fundamental cause behind these problems, which is the distributional discrepancies, and hence achieve sub-optimal results. In this paper, we propose a particle filtering framework that can effectively address both problems by explicitly reducing the distributional discrepancies. Specifically, our method relies on a set of external guidance, including a small set of real images and a pre-trained object detector, to gauge the distribution gap, and then design the resampling weight accordingly to correct the gap. Experiments show that our methods can effectively correct missing object errors and improve image quality in various image generation tasks. Notably, our method outperforms the existing strongest baseline by 5% in object occurrence and 1.0 in FID on MS-COCO. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/UCSB-NLP-Chang/diffusion_resampling.git.

Many real-world problems require reasoning across multiple scales, demanding models which operate not on single data points, but on entire distributions. We introduce generative distribution embeddings (GDE), a framework that lifts autoencoders to the space of distributions. In GDEs, an encoder acts on sets of samples, and the decoder is replaced by a generator which aims to match the input distribution. This framework enables learning representations of distributions by coupling conditional generative models with encoder networks which satisfy a criterion we call distributional invariance. We show that GDEs learn predictive sufficient statistics embedded in the Wasserstein space, such that latent GDE distances approximately recover the W_2 distance, and latent interpolation approximately recovers optimal transport trajectories for Gaussian and Gaussian mixture distributions. We systematically benchmark GDEs against existing approaches on synthetic datasets, demonstrating consistently stronger performance. We then apply GDEs to six key problems in computational biology: learning representations of cell populations from lineage-tracing data (150K cells), predicting perturbation effects on single-cell transcriptomes (1M cells), predicting perturbation effects on cellular phenotypes (20M single-cell images), modeling tissue-specific DNA methylation patterns (253M sequences), designing synthetic yeast promoters (34M sequences), and spatiotemporal modeling of viral protein sequences (1M sequences).

Recent advances in language modeling consist in pretraining highly parameterized neural networks on extremely large web-mined text corpora. Training and inference with such models can be costly in practice, which incentivizes the use of smaller counterparts. However, it has been observed that smaller models can suffer from saturation, characterized as a drop in performance at some advanced point in training followed by a plateau. In this paper, we find that such saturation can be explained by a mismatch between the hidden dimension of smaller models and the high rank of the target contextual probability distribution. This mismatch affects the performance of the linear prediction head used in such models through the well-known softmax bottleneck phenomenon. We measure the effect of the softmax bottleneck in various settings and find that models based on less than 1000 hidden dimensions tend to adopt degenerate latent representations in late pretraining, which leads to reduced evaluation performance.

State-of-the-art flow models achieve remarkable quality but require slow, iterative sampling. To accelerate this, flow maps can be distilled from pre-trained teachers, a procedure that conventionally requires sampling from an external dataset. We argue that this data-dependency introduces a fundamental risk of Teacher-Data Mismatch, as a static dataset may provide an incomplete or even misaligned representation of the teacher's full generative capabilities. This leads us to question whether this reliance on data is truly necessary for successful flow map distillation. In this work, we explore a data-free alternative that samples only from the prior distribution, a distribution the teacher is guaranteed to follow by construction, thereby circumventing the mismatch risk entirely. To demonstrate the practical viability of this philosophy, we introduce a principled framework that learns to predict the teacher's sampling path while actively correcting for its own compounding errors to ensure high fidelity. Our approach surpasses all data-based counterparts and establishes a new state-of-the-art by a significant margin. Specifically, distilling from SiT-XL/2+REPA, our method reaches an impressive FID of 1.45 on ImageNet 256x256, and 1.49 on ImageNet 512x512, both with only 1 sampling step. We hope our work establishes a more robust paradigm for accelerating generative models and motivates the broader adoption of flow map distillation without data.

A distribution shift can have fundamental consequences such as signaling a change in the operating environment or significantly reducing the accuracy of downstream models. Thus, understanding distribution shifts is critical for examining and hopefully mitigating the effect of such a shift. Most prior work focuses on merely detecting if a shift has occurred and assumes any detected shift can be understood and handled appropriately by a human operator. We hope to aid in these manual mitigation tasks by explaining the distribution shift using interpretable transportation maps from the original distribution to the shifted one. We derive our interpretable mappings from a relaxation of optimal transport, where the candidate mappings are restricted to a set of interpretable mappings. We then inspect multiple quintessential use-cases of distribution shift in real-world tabular, text, and image datasets to showcase how our explanatory mappings provide a better balance between detail and interpretability than baseline explanations by both visual inspection and our PercentExplained metric.

Diffusion models generate high-quality images but require dozens of forward passes. We introduce Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD), a procedure to transform a diffusion model into a one-step image generator with minimal impact on image quality. We enforce the one-step image generator match the diffusion model at distribution level, by minimizing an approximate KL divergence whose gradient can be expressed as the difference between 2 score functions, one of the target distribution and the other of the synthetic distribution being produced by our one-step generator. The score functions are parameterized as two diffusion models trained separately on each distribution. Combined with a simple regression loss matching the large-scale structure of the multi-step diffusion outputs, our method outperforms all published few-step diffusion approaches, reaching 2.62 FID on ImageNet 64x64 and 11.49 FID on zero-shot COCO-30k, comparable to Stable Diffusion but orders of magnitude faster. Utilizing FP16 inference, our model generates images at 20 FPS on modern hardware.

Small sample sizes are common in many disciplines, which necessitates pooling roughly similar datasets across multiple institutions to study weak but relevant associations between images and disease outcomes. Such data often manifest shift/imbalance in covariates (i.e., secondary non-imaging data). Controlling for such nuisance variables is common within standard statistical analysis, but the ideas do not directly apply to overparameterized models. Consequently, recent work has shown how strategies from invariant representation learning provides a meaningful starting point, but the current repertoire of methods is limited to accounting for shifts/imbalances in just a couple of covariates at a time. In this paper, we show how viewing this problem from the perspective of Category theory provides a simple and effective solution that completely avoids elaborate multi-stage training pipelines that would otherwise be needed. We show the effectiveness of this approach via extensive experiments on real datasets. Further, we discuss how this style of formulation offers a unified perspective on at least 5+ distinct problem settings, from self-supervised learning to matching problems in 3D reconstruction.

In this paper, we introduce a new distributional method for modeling predicate-argument thematic fit judgments. We use a syntax-based DSM to build a prototypical representation of verb-specific roles: for every verb, we extract the most salient second order contexts for each of its roles (i.e. the most salient dimensions of typical role fillers), and then we compute thematic fit as a weighted overlap between the top features of candidate fillers and role prototypes. Our experiments show that our method consistently outperforms a baseline re-implementing a state-of-the-art system, and achieves better or comparable results to those reported in the literature for the other unsupervised systems. Moreover, it provides an explicit representation of the features characterizing verb-specific semantic roles.

A growing trend for value-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms is to capture more information than scalar value functions in the value network. One of the most well-known methods in this branch is distributional RL, which models return distribution instead of scalar value. In another line of work, hybrid reward architectures (HRA) in RL have studied to model source-specific value functions for each source of reward, which is also shown to be beneficial in performance. To fully inherit the benefits of distributional RL and hybrid reward architectures, we introduce Multi-Dimensional Distributional DQN (MD3QN), which extends distributional RL to model the joint return distribution from multiple reward sources. As a by-product of joint distribution modeling, MD3QN can capture not only the randomness in returns for each source of reward, but also the rich reward correlation between the randomness of different sources. We prove the convergence for the joint distributional Bellman operator and build our empirical algorithm by minimizing the Maximum Mean Discrepancy between joint return distribution and its Bellman target. In experiments, our method accurately models the joint return distribution in environments with richly correlated reward functions, and outperforms previous RL methods utilizing multi-dimensional reward functions in the control setting.

While fusing heterogeneous open-source LLMs with varying architectures and sizes can potentially integrate the strengths of different models, existing fusion methods face significant challenges, such as vocabulary alignment and merging distribution matrices. These procedures are not only complex but also prone to introducing noise and errors. In this paper, we propose an implicit fusion method, Weighted-Reward Preference Optimization (WRPO), which leverages preference optimization between the source LLMs and the target LLM to transfer their capabilities effectively. WRPO eliminates the need for vocabulary alignment and matrix fusion and can be efficiently scaled to accommodate various LLMs. To address distributional deviations between the source and target LLMs, WRPO introduces a progressive adaptation strategy that gradually shifts reliance on preferred examples from the target LLM to the source LLMs. Extensive experiments on the MT-Bench, AlpacaEval-2, and Arena-Hard benchmarks demonstrate that WRPO consistently outperforms existing knowledge fusion methods and various fine-tuning baselines. When applied to LLaMA3-8B-Instruct as the target model, WRPO achieves a length-controlled win rate of 55.9% against GPT-4-Preview-1106 on AlpacaEval-2 and a win rate of 46.2% against GPT-4-0314 on Arena-Hard. Our code is available at https://github.com/SLIT-AI/WRPO.

We propose to extract meaning representations from autoregressive language models by considering the distribution of all possible trajectories extending an input text. This strategy is prompt-free, does not require fine-tuning, and is applicable to any pre-trained autoregressive model. Moreover, unlike vector-based representations, distribution-based representations can also model asymmetric relations (e.g., direction of logical entailment, hypernym/hyponym relations) by using algebraic operations between likelihood functions. These ideas are grounded in distributional perspectives on semantics and are connected to standard constructions in automata theory, but to our knowledge they have not been applied to modern language models. We empirically show that the representations obtained from large models align well with human annotations, outperform other zero-shot and prompt-free methods on semantic similarity tasks, and can be used to solve more complex entailment and containment tasks that standard embeddings cannot handle. Finally, we extend our method to represent data from different modalities (e.g., image and text) using multimodal autoregressive models. Our code is available at: https://github.com/tianyu139/meaning-as-trajectories

Many existing conditional score-based data generation methods utilize Bayes' theorem to decompose the gradients of a log posterior density into a mixture of scores. These methods facilitate the training procedure of conditional score models, as a mixture of scores can be separately estimated using a score model and a classifier. However, our analysis indicates that the training objectives for the classifier in these methods may lead to a serious score mismatch issue, which corresponds to the situation that the estimated scores deviate from the true ones. Such an issue causes the samples to be misled by the deviated scores during the diffusion process, resulting in a degraded sampling quality. To resolve it, we formulate a novel training objective, called Denoising Likelihood Score Matching (DLSM) loss, for the classifier to match the gradients of the true log likelihood density. Our experimental evidence shows that the proposed method outperforms the previous methods on both Cifar-10 and Cifar-100 benchmarks noticeably in terms of several key evaluation metrics. We thus conclude that, by adopting DLSM, the conditional scores can be accurately modeled, and the effect of the score mismatch issue is alleviated.

Sampling from diffusion models involves a slow iterative process that hinders their practical deployment, especially for interactive applications. To accelerate generation speed, recent approaches distill a multi-step diffusion model into a single-step student generator via variational score distillation, which matches the distribution of samples generated by the student to the teacher's distribution. However, these approaches use the reverse Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence for distribution matching which is known to be mode seeking. In this paper, we generalize the distribution matching approach using a novel f-divergence minimization framework, termed f-distill, that covers different divergences with different trade-offs in terms of mode coverage and training variance. We derive the gradient of the f-divergence between the teacher and student distributions and show that it is expressed as the product of their score differences and a weighting function determined by their density ratio. This weighting function naturally emphasizes samples with higher density in the teacher distribution, when using a less mode-seeking divergence. We observe that the popular variational score distillation approach using the reverse-KL divergence is a special case within our framework. Empirically, we demonstrate that alternative f-divergences, such as forward-KL and Jensen-Shannon divergences, outperform the current best variational score distillation methods across image generation tasks. In particular, when using Jensen-Shannon divergence, f-distill achieves current state-of-the-art one-step generation performance on ImageNet64 and zero-shot text-to-image generation on MS-COCO. Project page: https://research.nvidia.com/labs/genair/f-distill

We show that the effectiveness of the well celebrated Mixup [Zhang et al., 2018] can be further improved if instead of using it as the sole learning objective, it is utilized as an additional regularizer to the standard cross-entropy loss. This simple change not only provides much improved accuracy but also significantly improves the quality of the predictive uncertainty estimation of Mixup in most cases under various forms of covariate shifts and out-of-distribution detection experiments. In fact, we observe that Mixup yields much degraded performance on detecting out-of-distribution samples possibly, as we show empirically, because of its tendency to learn models that exhibit high-entropy throughout; making it difficult to differentiate in-distribution samples from out-distribution ones. To show the efficacy of our approach (RegMixup), we provide thorough analyses and experiments on vision datasets (ImageNet & CIFAR-10/100) and compare it with a suite of recent approaches for reliable uncertainty estimation.

We propose a Distributional Approach for addressing Controlled Text Generation from pre-trained Language Models (LMs). This approach permits to specify, in a single formal framework, both "pointwise" and "distributional" constraints over the target LM -- to our knowledge, the first model with such generality -- while minimizing KL divergence from the initial LM distribution. The optimal target distribution is then uniquely determined as an explicit EBM (Energy-Based Model) representation. From that optimal representation we then train a target controlled Autoregressive LM through an adaptive distributional variant of Policy Gradient. We conduct a first set of experiments over pointwise constraints showing the advantages of our approach over a set of baselines, in terms of obtaining a controlled LM balancing constraint satisfaction with divergence from the initial LM. We then perform experiments over distributional constraints, a unique feature of our approach, demonstrating its potential as a remedy to the problem of Bias in Language Models. Through an ablation study, we show the effectiveness of our adaptive technique for obtaining faster convergence. (Code available at https://github.com/naver/gdc)

Recent Large Language Model (LLM) post-training methods rely on token-level clipping mechanisms during Reinforcement Learning (RL). However, we identify a fundamental flaw in this Outcome-Supervised RL (OSRL) paradigm: the Importance Sampling (IS) ratios of positive-advantage tokens are mismatched, leading to unbalanced token weighting for positive and negative tokens. This mismatch suppresses the update of low-probability tokens while over-amplifying already high-probability ones. To address this, we propose Asymmetric Importance Sampling Policy Optimization (ASPO), which uses a simple yet effective strategy that flips the IS ratios of positive-advantage tokens, aligning their update direction with the learning dynamics of negative ones. AIS further incorporates a soft dual-clipping mechanism to stabilize extreme updates while maintaining gradient flow. Comprehensive experiments on coding and mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that ASPO significantly mitigates premature convergence, improves training stability, and enhances final performance over strong GRPO-based baselines. Our analysis provides new insights into the role of token-level weighting in OSRL and highlights the critical importance of correcting IS in LLM RL. The code and models of ASPO are available at https://github.com/wizard-III/Archer2.0.

Recent diffusion model advancements have enabled high-fidelity images to be generated using text prompts. However, a domain gap exists between generated images and real-world images, which poses a challenge in generating high-quality variations of real-world images. Our investigation uncovers that this domain gap originates from a latents' distribution gap in different diffusion processes. To address this issue, we propose a novel inference pipeline called Real-world Image Variation by ALignment (RIVAL) that utilizes diffusion models to generate image variations from a single image exemplar. Our pipeline enhances the generation quality of image variations by aligning the image generation process to the source image's inversion chain. Specifically, we demonstrate that step-wise latent distribution alignment is essential for generating high-quality variations. To attain this, we design a cross-image self-attention injection for feature interaction and a step-wise distribution normalization to align the latent features. Incorporating these alignment processes into a diffusion model allows RIVAL to generate high-quality image variations without further parameter optimization. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed approach outperforms existing methods with respect to semantic-condition similarity and perceptual quality. Furthermore, this generalized inference pipeline can be easily applied to other diffusion-based generation tasks, such as image-conditioned text-to-image generation and example-based image inpainting.

We introduce four new real-world distribution shift datasets consisting of changes in image style, image blurriness, geographic location, camera operation, and more. With our new datasets, we take stock of previously proposed methods for improving out-of-distribution robustness and put them to the test. We find that using larger models and artificial data augmentations can improve robustness on real-world distribution shifts, contrary to claims in prior work. We find improvements in artificial robustness benchmarks can transfer to real-world distribution shifts, contrary to claims in prior work. Motivated by our observation that data augmentations can help with real-world distribution shifts, we also introduce a new data augmentation method which advances the state-of-the-art and outperforms models pretrained with 1000 times more labeled data. Overall we find that some methods consistently help with distribution shifts in texture and local image statistics, but these methods do not help with some other distribution shifts like geographic changes. Our results show that future research must study multiple distribution shifts simultaneously, as we demonstrate that no evaluated method consistently improves robustness.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown promising capabilities but struggle under distribution shifts, where evaluation data differ from instruction tuning distributions. Although previous works have provided empirical evaluations, we argue that establishing a formal framework that can characterize and quantify the risk of MLLMs is necessary to ensure the safe and reliable application of MLLMs in the real world. By taking an information-theoretic perspective, we propose the first theoretical framework that enables the quantification of the maximum risk of MLLMs under distribution shifts. Central to our framework is the introduction of Effective Mutual Information (EMI), a principled metric that quantifies the relevance between input queries and model responses. We derive an upper bound for the EMI difference between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) data, connecting it to visual and textual distributional discrepancies. Extensive experiments on real benchmark datasets, spanning 61 shift scenarios empirically validate our theoretical insights.

Arbitrary style transfer (AST) and domain generalization (DG) are important yet challenging visual learning tasks, which can be cast as a feature distribution matching problem. With the assumption of Gaussian feature distribution, conventional feature distribution matching methods usually match the mean and standard deviation of features. However, the feature distributions of real-world data are usually much more complicated than Gaussian, which cannot be accurately matched by using only the first-order and second-order statistics, while it is computationally prohibitive to use high-order statistics for distribution matching. In this work, we, for the first time to our best knowledge, propose to perform Exact Feature Distribution Matching (EFDM) by exactly matching the empirical Cumulative Distribution Functions (eCDFs) of image features, which could be implemented by applying the Exact Histogram Matching (EHM) in the image feature space. Particularly, a fast EHM algorithm, named Sort-Matching, is employed to perform EFDM in a plug-and-play manner with minimal cost. The effectiveness of our proposed EFDM method is verified on a variety of AST and DG tasks, demonstrating new state-of-the-art results. Codes are available at https://github.com/YBZh/EFDM.

Machine learning models often struggle with distribution shifts in real-world scenarios, whereas humans exhibit robust adaptation. Models that better align with human perception may achieve higher out-of-distribution generalization. In this study, we investigate how various characteristics of large-scale computer vision models influence their alignment with human capabilities and robustness. Our findings indicate that increasing model and data size and incorporating rich semantic information and multiple modalities enhance models' alignment with human perception and their overall robustness. Our empirical analysis demonstrates a strong correlation between out-of-distribution accuracy and human alignment.

Deep generative models have been demonstrated as state-of-the-art density estimators. Yet, recent work has found that they often assign a higher likelihood to data from outside the training distribution. This seemingly paradoxical behavior has caused concerns over the quality of the attained density estimates. In the context of hierarchical variational autoencoders, we provide evidence to explain this behavior by out-of-distribution data having in-distribution low-level features. We argue that this is both expected and desirable behavior. With this insight in hand, we develop a fast, scalable and fully unsupervised likelihood-ratio score for OOD detection that requires data to be in-distribution across all feature-levels. We benchmark the method on a vast set of data and model combinations and achieve state-of-the-art results on out-of-distribution detection.

We conduct a large empirical evaluation to investigate the landscape of distributional robustness in question answering. Our investigation spans over 350 models and 16 question answering datasets, including a diverse set of architectures, model sizes, and adaptation methods (e.g., fine-tuning, adapter tuning, in-context learning, etc.). We find that, in many cases, model variations do not affect robustness and in-distribution performance alone determines out-of-distribution performance. Moreover, our findings indicate that i) zero-shot and in-context learning methods are more robust to distribution shifts than fully fine-tuned models; ii) few-shot prompt fine-tuned models exhibit better robustness than few-shot fine-tuned span prediction models; iii) parameter-efficient and robustness enhancing training methods provide no significant robustness improvements. In addition, we publicly release all evaluations to encourage researchers to further analyze robustness trends for question answering models.

Typical neural network trainings have substantial variance in test-set performance between repeated runs, impeding hyperparameter comparison and training reproducibility. We present the following results towards understanding this variation. (1) Despite having significant variance on their test-sets, we demonstrate that standard CIFAR-10 and ImageNet trainings have very little variance in their performance on the test-distributions from which those test-sets are sampled, suggesting that variance is less of a practical issue than previously thought. (2) We present a simplifying statistical assumption which closely approximates the structure of the test-set accuracy distribution. (3) We argue that test-set variance is inevitable in the following two senses. First, we show that variance is largely caused by high sensitivity of the training process to initial conditions, rather than by specific sources of randomness like the data order and augmentations. Second, we prove that variance is unavoidable given the observation that ensembles of trained networks are well-calibrated. (4) We conduct preliminary studies of distribution-shift, fine-tuning, data augmentation and learning rate through the lens of variance between runs.

Instruction tuning improves the ability of large language models (LLMs) to follow diverse human instructions, but achieving strong performance on specific target tasks remains challenging. A critical bottleneck is selecting the most relevant data to maximize task-specific performance. Existing data selection approaches include unstable influence-based methods and more stable distribution alignment methods, the latter of which critically rely on the underlying sample representation. In practice, most distribution alignment methods, from shallow features (e.g., BM25) to neural embeddings (e.g., BGE, LLM2Vec), may fail to capture how the model internally processes samples. To bridge this gap, we adopt a model-centric strategy in which each sample is represented by its neuronal activation pattern in the model, directly reflecting internal computation. However, directly using raw neuron activations leads to spurious similarity between unrelated samples due to neuron polysemanticity, where a single neuron may respond to multiple, unrelated concepts. To address this, we employ sparse autoencoders to disentangle polysemantic activations into sparse, monosemantic representations, and introduce a dedicated similarity metric for this space to better identify task-relevant data. Comprehensive experiments across multiple instruction datasets, models, tasks, and selection ratios show that our approach consistently outperforms existing data selection baselines in both stability and task-specific performance.

Language model post-training has enhanced instruction-following and performance on many downstream tasks, but also comes with an often-overlooked cost on tasks with many possible valid answers. We characterize three desiderata for conditional distributional modeling: in-context steerability, valid output space coverage, and distributional alignment, and document across three model families how current post-training can reduce these properties. In particular, we disambiguate between two kinds of in-context learning: ICL for eliciting existing underlying knowledge or capabilities, and in-context steerability, where a model must use in-context information to override its priors and steer to a novel data generating distribution. To better evaluate and improve these desiderata, we introduce Spectrum Suite, a large-scale resource compiled from >40 data sources and spanning >90 tasks requiring models to steer to and match diverse distributions ranging from varied human preferences to numerical distributions and more. We find that while current post-training techniques help elicit underlying capabilities and knowledge, they hurt models' ability to flexibly steer in-context. To mitigate these issues, we propose Spectrum Tuning, a post-training method using Spectrum Suite to improve steerability and distributional coverage. We find that Spectrum Tuning often improves over pretrained models and their instruction-tuned counterparts, enhancing steerability, spanning more of the output space, and improving distributional alignment on held-out datasets.

Current LLM alignment techniques use pairwise human preferences at a sample level, and as such, they do not imply an alignment on the distributional level. We propose in this paper Alignment via Optimal Transport (AOT), a novel method for distributional preference alignment of LLMs. AOT aligns LLMs on unpaired preference data by making the reward distribution of the positive samples stochastically dominant in the first order on the distribution of negative samples. We introduce a convex relaxation of this first-order stochastic dominance and cast it as an optimal transport problem with a smooth and convex cost. Thanks to the one-dimensional nature of the resulting optimal transport problem and the convexity of the cost, it has a closed-form solution via sorting on empirical measures. We fine-tune LLMs with this AOT objective, which enables alignment by penalizing the violation of the stochastic dominance of the reward distribution of the positive samples on the reward distribution of the negative samples. We analyze the sample complexity of AOT by considering the dual of the OT problem and show that it converges at the parametric rate. Empirically, we show on a diverse set of alignment datasets and LLMs that AOT leads to state-of-the-art models in the 7B family of models when evaluated with Open LLM Benchmarks and AlpacaEval.

Mixup is a highly successful technique to improve generalization of neural networks by augmenting the training data with combinations of random pairs. Selective mixup is a family of methods that apply mixup to specific pairs, e.g. only combining examples across classes or domains. These methods have claimed remarkable improvements on benchmarks with distribution shifts, but their mechanisms and limitations remain poorly understood. We examine an overlooked aspect of selective mixup that explains its success in a completely new light. We find that the non-random selection of pairs affects the training distribution and improve generalization by means completely unrelated to the mixing. For example in binary classification, mixup across classes implicitly resamples the data for a uniform class distribution - a classical solution to label shift. We show empirically that this implicit resampling explains much of the improvements in prior work. Theoretically, these results rely on a regression toward the mean, an accidental property that we identify in several datasets. We have found a new equivalence between two successful methods: selective mixup and resampling. We identify limits of the former, confirm the effectiveness of the latter, and find better combinations of their respective benefits.

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized the role of AI, yet also pose potential risks of propagating unethical content. Alignment technologies have been introduced to steer LLMs towards human preference, gaining increasing attention. Despite notable breakthroughs in this direction, existing methods heavily rely on high-quality positive-negative training pairs, suffering from noisy labels and the marginal distinction between preferred and dispreferred response data. Given recent LLMs' proficiency in generating helpful responses, this work pivots towards a new research focus: achieving alignment using solely human-annotated negative samples, preserving helpfulness while reducing harmfulness. For this purpose, we propose Distributional Dispreference Optimization (D^2O), which maximizes the discrepancy between the generated responses and the dispreferred ones to effectively eschew harmful information. We theoretically demonstrate that D^2O is equivalent to learning a distributional instead of instance-level preference model reflecting human dispreference against the distribution of negative responses. Besides, D^2O integrates an implicit Jeffrey Divergence regularization to balance the exploitation and exploration of reference policies and converges to a non-negative one during training. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves comparable generation quality and surpasses the latest baselines in producing less harmful and more informative responses with better training stability and faster convergence.

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly transforming social science research by enabling the automation of labor-intensive tasks like data annotation and text analysis. However, LLM outputs vary significantly depending on the implementation choices made by researchers (e.g., model selection, prompting strategy, or temperature settings). Such variation can introduce systematic biases and random errors, which propagate to downstream analyses and cause Type I, Type II, Type S, or Type M errors. We call this LLM hacking. We quantify the risk of LLM hacking by replicating 37 data annotation tasks from 21 published social science research studies with 18 different models. Analyzing 13 million LLM labels, we test 2,361 realistic hypotheses to measure how plausible researcher choices affect statistical conclusions. We find incorrect conclusions based on LLM-annotated data in approximately one in three hypotheses for state-of-the-art models, and in half the hypotheses for small language models. While our findings show that higher task performance and better general model capabilities reduce LLM hacking risk, even highly accurate models do not completely eliminate it. The risk of LLM hacking decreases as effect sizes increase, indicating the need for more rigorous verification of findings near significance thresholds. Our extensive analysis of LLM hacking mitigation techniques emphasizes the importance of human annotations in reducing false positive findings and improving model selection. Surprisingly, common regression estimator correction techniques are largely ineffective in reducing LLM hacking risk, as they heavily trade off Type I vs. Type II errors. Beyond accidental errors, we find that intentional LLM hacking is unacceptably simple. With few LLMs and just a handful of prompt paraphrases, anything can be presented as statistically significant.

Diffusion model distillation has emerged as a powerful technique for creating efficient few-step and single-step generators. Among these, Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD) and its variants stand out for their impressive performance, which is widely attributed to their core mechanism of matching the student's output distribution to that of a pre-trained teacher model. In this work, we challenge this conventional understanding. Through a rigorous decomposition of the DMD training objective, we reveal that in complex tasks like text-to-image generation, where CFG is typically required for desirable few-step performance, the primary driver of few-step distillation is not distribution matching, but a previously overlooked component we identify as CFG Augmentation (CA). We demonstrate that this term acts as the core ``engine'' of distillation, while the Distribution Matching (DM) term functions as a ``regularizer'' that ensures training stability and mitigates artifacts. We further validate this decoupling by demonstrating that while the DM term is a highly effective regularizer, it is not unique; simpler non-parametric constraints or GAN-based objectives can serve the same stabilizing function, albeit with different trade-offs. This decoupling of labor motivates a more principled analysis of the properties of both terms, leading to a more systematic and in-depth understanding. This new understanding further enables us to propose principled modifications to the distillation process, such as decoupling the noise schedules for the engine and the regularizer, leading to further performance gains. Notably, our method has been adopted by the Z-Image ( https://github.com/Tongyi-MAI/Z-Image ) project to develop a top-tier 8-step image generation model, empirically validating the generalization and robustness of our findings.

In contrast to classical reinforcement learning, distributional reinforcement learning algorithms aim to learn the distribution of returns rather than their expected value. Since the nature of the return distribution is generally unknown a priori or arbitrarily complex, a common approach finds approximations within a set of representable, parametric distributions. Typically, this involves a projection of the unconstrained distribution onto the set of simplified distributions. We argue that this projection step entails a strong inductive bias when coupled with neural networks and gradient descent, thereby profoundly impacting the generalization behavior of learned models. In order to facilitate reliable uncertainty estimation through diversity, this work studies the combination of several different projections and representations in a distributional ensemble. We establish theoretical properties of such projection ensembles and derive an algorithm that uses ensemble disagreement, measured by the average 1-Wasserstein distance, as a bonus for deep exploration. We evaluate our algorithm on the behavior suite benchmark and find that diverse projection ensembles lead to significant performance improvements over existing methods on a wide variety of tasks with the most pronounced gains in directed exploration problems.

Formal and distributional semantic models offer complementary benefits in modeling meaning. The categorical compositional distributional (DisCoCat) model of meaning of Coecke et al. (arXiv:1003.4394v1 [cs.CL]) combines aspected of both to provide a general framework in which meanings of words, obtained distributionally, are composed using methods from the logical setting to form sentence meaning. Concrete consequences of this general abstract setting and applications to empirical data are under active study (Grefenstette et al., arxiv:1101.0309; Grefenstette and Sadrzadeh, arXiv:1106.4058v1 [cs.CL]). . In this paper, we extend this study by examining transitive verbs, represented as matrices in a DisCoCat. We discuss three ways of constructing such matrices, and evaluate each method in a disambiguation task developed by Grefenstette and Sadrzadeh (arXiv:1106.4058v1 [cs.CL]).

Given a classifier, the inherent property of semantic Out-of-Distribution (OOD) samples is that their contents differ from all legal classes in terms of semantics, namely semantic mismatch. There is a recent work that directly applies it to OOD detection, which employs a conditional Generative Adversarial Network (cGAN) to enlarge semantic mismatch in the image space. While achieving remarkable OOD detection performance on small datasets, it is not applicable to ImageNet-scale datasets due to the difficulty in training cGANs with both input images and labels as conditions. As diffusion models are much easier to train and amenable to various conditions compared to cGANs, in this work, we propose to directly use pre-trained diffusion models for semantic mismatch-guided OOD detection, named DiffGuard. Specifically, given an OOD input image and the predicted label from the classifier, we try to enlarge the semantic difference between the reconstructed OOD image under these conditions and the original input image. We also present several test-time techniques to further strengthen such differences. Experimental results show that DiffGuard is effective on both Cifar-10 and hard cases of the large-scale ImageNet, and it can be easily combined with existing OOD detection techniques to achieve state-of-the-art OOD detection results.

While diffusion distillation has enabled one-step generation through methods like Variational Score Distillation, adapting distilled models to emerging new controls -- such as novel structural constraints or latest user preferences -- remains challenging. Conventional approaches typically requires modifying the base diffusion model and redistilling it -- a process that is both computationally intensive and time-consuming. To address these challenges, we introduce Joint Distribution Matching (JDM), a novel approach that minimizes the reverse KL divergence between image-condition joint distributions. By deriving a tractable upper bound, JDM decouples fidelity learning from condition learning. This asymmetric distillation scheme enables our one-step student to handle controls unknown to the teacher model and facilitates improved classifier-free guidance (CFG) usage and seamless integration of human feedback learning (HFL). Experimental results demonstrate that JDM surpasses baseline methods such as multi-step ControlNet by mere one-step in most cases, while achieving state-of-the-art performance in one-step text-to-image synthesis through improved usage of CFG or HFL integration.

Anomaly detection (AD) is a crucial machine learning task that aims to learn patterns from a set of normal training samples to identify abnormal samples in test data. Most existing AD studies assume that the training and test data are drawn from the same data distribution, but the test data can have large distribution shifts arising in many real-world applications due to different natural variations such as new lighting conditions, object poses, or background appearances, rendering existing AD methods ineffective in such cases. In this paper, we consider the problem of anomaly detection under distribution shift and establish performance benchmarks on three widely-used AD and out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization datasets. We demonstrate that simple adaptation of state-of-the-art OOD generalization methods to AD settings fails to work effectively due to the lack of labeled anomaly data. We further introduce a novel robust AD approach to diverse distribution shifts by minimizing the distribution gap between in-distribution and OOD normal samples in both the training and inference stages in an unsupervised way. Our extensive empirical results on the three datasets show that our approach substantially outperforms state-of-the-art AD methods and OOD generalization methods on data with various distribution shifts, while maintaining the detection accuracy on in-distribution data.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of interventions. One use of RCTs is to study the causes of global poverty -- a subject explicitly cited in the 2019 Nobel Memorial Prize awarded to Duflo, Banerjee, and Kremer "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty." Because the ATE is a population summary, anti-poverty experiments often seek to unpack the effect variation around the ATE by conditioning (CATE) on tabular variables such as age and ethnicity that were measured during the RCT data collection. Although such variables are key to unpacking CATE, using only such variables may fail to capture historical, geographical, or neighborhood-specific contributors to effect variation, as tabular RCT data are often only observed near the time of the experiment. In global poverty research, when the location of the experiment units is approximately known, satellite imagery can provide a window into such factors important for understanding heterogeneity. However, there is no method that specifically enables applied researchers to analyze CATE from images. In this paper, using a deep probabilistic modeling framework, we develop such a method that estimates latent clusters of images by identifying images with similar treatment effects distributions. Our interpretable image CATE model also includes a sensitivity factor that quantifies the importance of image segments contributing to the effect cluster prediction. We compare the proposed methods against alternatives in simulation; also, we show how the model works in an actual RCT, estimating the effects of an anti-poverty intervention in northern Uganda and obtaining a posterior predictive distribution over effects for the rest of the country where no experimental data was collected. We make all models available in open-source software.

With the growing interest in large language models, the need for evaluating the quality of machine text compared to reference (typically human-generated) text has become focal attention. Most recent works focus either on task-specific evaluation metrics or study the properties of machine-generated text captured by the existing metrics. In this work, we propose a new evaluation scheme to model human judgments in 7 NLP tasks, based on the fine-grained mismatches between a pair of texts. Inspired by the recent efforts in several NLP tasks for fine-grained evaluation, we introduce a set of 13 mismatch error types such as spatial/geographic errors, entity errors, etc, to guide the model for better prediction of human judgments. We propose a neural framework for evaluating machine texts that uses these mismatch error types as auxiliary tasks and re-purposes the existing single-number evaluation metrics as additional scalar features, in addition to textual features extracted from the machine and reference texts. Our experiments reveal key insights about the existing metrics via the mismatch errors. We show that the mismatch errors between the sentence pairs on the held-out datasets from 7 NLP tasks align well with the human evaluation.

Large language models (LLMs) have enabled the development of numerous specialized, task-specific variants. However, the maintenance and deployment of these individual models present substantial challenges in terms of resource utilization and operational efficiency. In this work, we propose the Mixture of Distributions (MoD) framework, a novel approach for merging LLMs that operates directly on their output probability distributions, rather than on model weights. Unlike traditional weight-averaging methods, MoD effectively preserves the specialized capabilities of individual models while enabling efficient knowledge sharing across tasks. Through extensive experimentation on mathematical reasoning benchmarks using Qwen2.5 models, we demonstrate that MoD significantly outperforms existing model merging techniques across multiple benchmarks. All code, data, and experimental materials are published at https://github.com/knovel-eng/mod.

We consider the two related problems of detecting if an example is misclassified or out-of-distribution. We present a simple baseline that utilizes probabilities from softmax distributions. Correctly classified examples tend to have greater maximum softmax probabilities than erroneously classified and out-of-distribution examples, allowing for their detection. We assess performance by defining several tasks in computer vision, natural language processing, and automatic speech recognition, showing the effectiveness of this baseline across all. We then show the baseline can sometimes be surpassed, demonstrating the room for future research on these underexplored detection tasks.

In this work, we connect two distinct concepts for unsupervised domain adaptation: feature distribution alignment between domains by utilizing the task-specific decision boundary and the Wasserstein metric. Our proposed sliced Wasserstein discrepancy (SWD) is designed to capture the natural notion of dissimilarity between the outputs of task-specific classifiers. It provides a geometrically meaningful guidance to detect target samples that are far from the support of the source and enables efficient distribution alignment in an end-to-end trainable fashion. In the experiments, we validate the effectiveness and genericness of our method on digit and sign recognition, image classification, semantic segmentation, and object detection.

Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) is a fundamental tool for modeling combinatorial optimization problems. Recently, a growing body of research has used machine learning to accelerate MILP solving. Despite the increasing popularity of this approach, there is a lack of a common repository that provides distributions of similar MILP instances across different domains, at different hardness levels, with standardized test sets. In this paper, we introduce Distributional MIPLIB, a multi-domain library of problem distributions for advancing ML-guided MILP methods. We curate MILP distributions from existing work in this area as well as real-world problems that have not been used, and classify them into different hardness levels. It will facilitate research in this area by enabling comprehensive evaluation on diverse and realistic domains. We empirically illustrate the benefits of using Distributional MIPLIB as a research vehicle in two ways. We evaluate the performance of ML-guided variable branching on previously unused distributions to identify potential areas for improvement. Moreover, we propose to learn branching policies from a mix of distributions, demonstrating that mixed distributions achieve better performance compared to homogeneous distributions when there is limited data and generalize well to larger instances. The dataset is publicly available at https://sites.google.com/usc.edu/distributional-miplib/home.

Understanding how machine learning models respond to distributional shifts is a key research challenge. Mazes serve as an excellent testbed due to varied generation algorithms offering a nuanced platform to simulate both subtle and pronounced distributional shifts. To enable systematic investigations of model behavior on out-of-distribution data, we present maze-dataset, a comprehensive library for generating, processing, and visualizing datasets consisting of maze-solving tasks. With this library, researchers can easily create datasets, having extensive control over the generation algorithm used, the parameters fed to the algorithm of choice, and the filters that generated mazes must satisfy. Furthermore, it supports multiple output formats, including rasterized and text-based, catering to convolutional neural networks and autoregressive transformer models. These formats, along with tools for visualizing and converting between them, ensure versatility and adaptability in research applications.

Causal effects are usually studied in terms of the means of counterfactual distributions, which may be insufficient in many scenarios. Given a class of densities known up to normalizing constants, we propose to model counterfactual distributions by minimizing kernel Stein discrepancies in a doubly robust manner. This enables the estimation of counterfactuals over large classes of distributions while exploiting the desired double robustness. We present a theoretical analysis of the proposed estimator, providing sufficient conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality, as well as an examination of its empirical performance.

Large language models perform near-Bayesian inference yet violate permutation invariance on exchangeable data. We resolve this by showing transformers minimize expected conditional description length (cross-entropy) over orderings, E_pi[ell(Y mid Gamma_pi(X))], which admits a Kolmogorov-complexity interpretation up to additive constants, rather than the permutation-invariant description length ell(Y mid X). This makes them Bayesian in expectation, not in realization. We derive (i) a Quantified Martingale Violation bound showing order-induced deviations scale as O(log n) with constants; (ii) the Expectation-level Decompression Law linking information budgets to reliability for Bernoulli predicates; and (iii) deployable planners (B2T/RoH/ISR) for answer/abstain decisions. Empirically, permutation dispersion follows a+bln n (Qwen2-7B b approx 0.377, Llama-3.1-8B b approx 0.147); permutation mixtures improve ground-truth likelihood/accuracy; and randomized dose-response shows hallucinations drop by sim 0.13 per additional nat. A pre-specified audit with a fixed ISR=1.0 achieves near-0\% hallucinations via calibrated refusal at 24\% abstention. The framework turns hallucinations into predictable compression failures and enables principled information budgeting.

Learning representations that generalize under distribution shifts is critical for building robust machine learning models. However, despite significant efforts in recent years, algorithmic advances in this direction have been limited. In this work, we seek to understand the fundamental difficulty of out-of-distribution generalization with deep neural networks. We first empirically show that perhaps surprisingly, even allowing a neural network to explicitly fit the representations obtained from a teacher network that can generalize out-of-distribution is insufficient for the generalization of the student network. Then, by a theoretical study of two-layer ReLU networks optimized by stochastic gradient descent (SGD) under a structured feature model, we identify a fundamental yet unexplored feature learning proclivity of neural networks, feature contamination: neural networks can learn uncorrelated features together with predictive features, resulting in generalization failure under distribution shifts. Notably, this mechanism essentially differs from the prevailing narrative in the literature that attributes the generalization failure to spurious correlations. Overall, our results offer new insights into the non-linear feature learning dynamics of neural networks and highlight the necessity of considering inductive biases in out-of-distribution generalization.

Supervised learning datasets may contain multiple cues that explain the training set equally well, i.e., learning any of them would lead to the correct predictions on the training data. However, many of them can be spurious, i.e., lose their predictive power under a distribution shift and consequently fail to generalize to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Recently developed "diversification" methods (Lee et al., 2023; Pagliardini et al., 2023) approach this problem by finding multiple diverse hypotheses that rely on different features. This paper aims to study this class of methods and identify the key components contributing to their OOD generalization abilities. We show that (1) diversification methods are highly sensitive to the distribution of the unlabeled data used for diversification and can underperform significantly when away from a method-specific sweet spot. (2) Diversification alone is insufficient for OOD generalization. The choice of the used learning algorithm, e.g., the model's architecture and pretraining, is crucial. In standard experiments (classification on Waterbirds and Office-Home datasets), using the second-best choice leads to an up to 20\% absolute drop in accuracy. (3) The optimal choice of learning algorithm depends on the unlabeled data and vice versa i.e. they are co-dependent. (4) Finally, we show that, in practice, the above pitfalls cannot be alleviated by increasing the number of diverse hypotheses, the major feature of diversification methods. These findings provide a clearer understanding of the critical design factors influencing the OOD generalization abilities of diversification methods. They can guide practitioners in how to use the existing methods best and guide researchers in developing new, better ones.

With the growing utilization of large language models (LLMs) across domains, alignment towards human preferences has become one of the most critical aspects of training models. At the forefront of state-of-the-art human alignment methods are preference optimization methods (*PO). However, prior research has often concentrated on identifying the best-performing method, typically involving a grid search over hyperparameters, which can be impractical for general practitioners. In this paper, we aim to identify the algorithm that, while being performant, is simultaneously more robust to varying hyperparameters, thereby increasing the likelihood of achieving better results. We focus on a realistic out-of-distribution (OOD) scenario that mirrors real-world applications of human alignment, offering practical insights into the strengths and weaknesses of these methods. Furthermore, to better understand the shortcomings of generations from the different methods, we analyze the model generations through the lens of KL divergence of the SFT model and the response length statistics. Our analysis reveals that the widely adopted DPO method consistently produces lengthy responses of inferior quality that are very close to the SFT responses. Motivated by these findings, we propose an embarrassingly simple extension to the DPO algorithm, LN-DPO, resulting in more concise responses without sacrificing quality compared to the policy obtained by vanilla DPO.

We propose an alternate approach to quantifying how well language models learn natural language: we ask how well they match the statistical tendencies of natural language. To answer this question, we analyze whether text generated from language models exhibits the statistical tendencies present in the human-generated text on which they were trained. We provide a framework--paired with significance tests--for evaluating the fit of language models to these trends. We find that neural language models appear to learn only a subset of the tendencies considered, but align much more closely with empirical trends than proposed theoretical distributions (when present). Further, the fit to different distributions is highly-dependent on both model architecture and generation strategy. As concrete examples, text generated under the nucleus sampling scheme adheres more closely to the type--token relationship of natural language than text produced using standard ancestral sampling; text from LSTMs reflects the natural language distributions over length, stopwords, and symbols surprisingly well.

Machine learning systems often experience a distribution shift between training and testing. In this paper, we introduce a simple variational objective whose optima are exactly the set of all representations on which risk minimizers are guaranteed to be robust to any distribution shift that preserves the Bayes predictor, e.g., covariate shifts. Our objective has two components. First, a representation must remain discriminative for the task, i.e., some predictor must be able to simultaneously minimize the source and target risk. Second, the representation's marginal support needs to be the same across source and target. We make this practical by designing self-supervised objectives that only use unlabelled data and augmentations to train robust representations. Our objectives give insights into the robustness of CLIP, and further improve CLIP's representations to achieve SOTA results on DomainBed.

Despite much work on advanced deep learning and generative modeling techniques for tabular data generation and imputation, traditional methods have continued to win on imputation benchmarks. We herein present UnmaskingTrees, a simple method for tabular imputation (and generation) employing gradient-boosted decision trees which are used to incrementally unmask individual features. On a benchmark for out-of-the-box performance on 27 small tabular datasets, UnmaskingTrees offers leading performance on imputation; state-of-the-art performance on generation given data with missingness; and competitive performance on vanilla generation given data without missingness. To solve the conditional generation subproblem, we propose a tabular probabilistic prediction method, BaltoBot, which fits a balanced tree of boosted tree classifiers. Unlike older methods, it requires no parametric assumption on the conditional distribution, accommodating features with multimodal distributions; unlike newer diffusion methods, it offers fast sampling, closed-form density estimation, and flexible handling of discrete variables. We finally consider our two approaches as meta-algorithms, demonstrating in-context learning-based generative modeling with TabPFN.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is a critical task for reliable predictions over text. Fine-tuning with pre-trained language models has been a de facto procedure to derive OOD detectors with respect to in-distribution (ID) data. Despite its common use, the understanding of the role of fine-tuning and its necessity for OOD detection is largely unexplored. In this paper, we raise the question: is fine-tuning necessary for OOD detection? We present a study investigating the efficacy of directly leveraging pre-trained language models for OOD detection, without any model fine-tuning on the ID data. We compare the approach with several competitive fine-tuning objectives, and offer new insights under various types of distributional shifts. Extensive evaluations on 8 diverse ID-OOD dataset pairs demonstrate near-perfect OOD detection performance (with 0% FPR95 in many cases), strongly outperforming its fine-tuned counterparts. We show that using distance-based detection methods, pre-trained language models are near-perfect OOD detectors when the distribution shift involves a domain change. Furthermore, we study the effect of fine-tuning on OOD detection and identify how to balance ID accuracy with OOD detection performance. Our code is publically available at https://github.com/Uppaal/lm-ood.

Advancements in text-to-image diffusion models have broadened extensive downstream practical applications, but such models often encounter misalignment issues between text and image. Taking the generation of a combination of two disentangled concepts as an example, say given the prompt "a tea cup of iced coke", existing models usually generate a glass cup of iced coke because the iced coke usually co-occurs with the glass cup instead of the tea one during model training. The root of such misalignment is attributed to the confusion in the latent semantic space of text-to-image diffusion models, and hence we refer to the "a tea cup of iced coke" phenomenon as Latent Concept Misalignment (LC-Mis). We leverage large language models (LLMs) to thoroughly investigate the scope of LC-Mis, and develop an automated pipeline for aligning the latent semantics of diffusion models to text prompts. Empirical assessments confirm the effectiveness of our approach, substantially reducing LC-Mis errors and enhancing the robustness and versatility of text-to-image diffusion models. The code and dataset are here: https://github.com/RossoneriZhao/iced_coke.

Dataset Distillation is used to create a concise, yet informative, synthetic dataset that can replace the original dataset for training purposes. Some leading methods in this domain prioritize long-range matching, involving the unrolling of training trajectories with a fixed number of steps (NS) on the synthetic dataset to align with various expert training trajectories. However, traditional long-range matching methods possess an overfitting-like problem, the fixed step size NS forces synthetic dataset to distortedly conform seen expert training trajectories, resulting in a loss of generality-especially to those from unencountered architecture. We refer to this as the Accumulated Mismatching Problem (AMP), and propose a new approach, Automatic Training Trajectories (ATT), which dynamically and adaptively adjusts trajectory length NS to address the AMP. Our method outperforms existing methods particularly in tests involving cross-architectures. Moreover, owing to its adaptive nature, it exhibits enhanced stability in the face of parameter variations.

Modern deep neural networks can achieve high accuracy when the training distribution and test distribution are identically distributed, but this assumption is frequently violated in practice. When the train and test distributions are mismatched, accuracy can plummet. Currently there are few techniques that improve robustness to unforeseen data shifts encountered during deployment. In this work, we propose a technique to improve the robustness and uncertainty estimates of image classifiers. We propose AugMix, a data processing technique that is simple to implement, adds limited computational overhead, and helps models withstand unforeseen corruptions. AugMix significantly improves robustness and uncertainty measures on challenging image classification benchmarks, closing the gap between previous methods and the best possible performance in some cases by more than half.

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the fundamental question of ``what are the most effective algorithms for OOD generalization'' remains open even under the standard setting of covariate shift. This paper addresses this fundamental question by proving that, surprisingly, classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) purely using source data (without any modification) achieves the minimax optimality for covariate shift under the well-specified setting. That is, no algorithm performs better than MLE in this setting (up to a constant factor), justifying MLE is all you need. Our result holds for a very rich class of parametric models, and does not require any boundedness condition on the density ratio. We illustrate the wide applicability of our framework by instantiating it to three concrete examples -- linear regression, logistic regression, and phase retrieval. This paper further complement the study by proving that, under the misspecified setting, MLE is no longer the optimal choice, whereas Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimator (MWLE) emerges as minimax optimal in certain scenarios.

Misalignment between model predictions and intended usage can be detrimental for the deployment of computer vision models. The issue is exacerbated when the task involves complex structured outputs, as it becomes harder to design procedures which address this misalignment. In natural language processing, this is often addressed using reinforcement learning techniques that align models with a task reward. We adopt this approach and show its surprising effectiveness across multiple computer vision tasks, such as object detection, panoptic segmentation, colorization and image captioning. We believe this approach has the potential to be widely useful for better aligning models with a diverse range of computer vision tasks.

Modern machine learning models deployed in the wild can encounter both covariate and semantic shifts, giving rise to the problems of out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization and OOD detection respectively. While both problems have received significant research attention lately, they have been pursued independently. This may not be surprising, since the two tasks have seemingly conflicting goals. This paper provides a new unified approach that is capable of simultaneously generalizing to covariate shifts while robustly detecting semantic shifts. We propose a margin-based learning framework that exploits freely available unlabeled data in the wild that captures the environmental test-time OOD distributions under both covariate and semantic shifts. We show both empirically and theoretically that the proposed margin constraint is the key to achieving both OOD generalization and detection. Extensive experiments show the superiority of our framework, outperforming competitive baselines that specialize in either OOD generalization or OOD detection. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/deeplearning-wisc/scone.

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.

Modern deep convolutional networks (CNNs) are often criticized for not generalizing under distributional shifts. However, several recent breakthroughs in transfer learning suggest that these networks can cope with severe distribution shifts and successfully adapt to new tasks from a few training examples. In this work we study the interplay between out-of-distribution and transfer performance of modern image classification CNNs for the first time and investigate the impact of the pre-training data size, the model scale, and the data preprocessing pipeline. We find that increasing both the training set and model sizes significantly improve the distributional shift robustness. Furthermore, we show that, perhaps surprisingly, simple changes in the preprocessing such as modifying the image resolution can significantly mitigate robustness issues in some cases. Finally, we outline the shortcomings of existing robustness evaluation datasets and introduce a synthetic dataset SI-Score we use for a systematic analysis across factors of variation common in visual data such as object size and position.

Dataset Distillation (DD) emerges as a powerful strategy to encapsulate the expansive information of large datasets into significantly smaller, synthetic equivalents, thereby preserving model performance with reduced computational overhead. Pursuing this objective, we introduce the Wasserstein distance, a metric grounded in optimal transport theory, to enhance distribution matching in DD. Our approach employs the Wasserstein barycenter to provide a geometrically meaningful method for quantifying distribution differences and capturing the centroid of distribution sets efficiently. By embedding synthetic data in the feature spaces of pretrained classification models, we facilitate effective distribution matching that leverages prior knowledge inherent in these models. Our method not only maintains the computational advantages of distribution matching-based techniques but also achieves new state-of-the-art performance across a range of high-resolution datasets. Extensive testing demonstrates the effectiveness and adaptability of our method, underscoring the untapped potential of Wasserstein metrics in dataset distillation.

Coecke, Sadrzadeh, and Clark (arXiv:1003.4394v1 [cs.CL]) developed a compositional model of meaning for distributional semantics, in which each word in a sentence has a meaning vector and the distributional meaning of the sentence is a function of the tensor products of the word vectors. Abstractly speaking, this function is the morphism corresponding to the grammatical structure of the sentence in the category of finite dimensional vector spaces. In this paper, we provide a concrete method for implementing this linear meaning map, by constructing a corpus-based vector space for the type of sentence. Our construction method is based on structured vector spaces whereby meaning vectors of all sentences, regardless of their grammatical structure, live in the same vector space. Our proposed sentence space is the tensor product of two noun spaces, in which the basis vectors are pairs of words each augmented with a grammatical role. This enables us to compare meanings of sentences by simply taking the inner product of their vectors.

While recent preference alignment algorithms for language models have demonstrated promising results, supervised fine-tuning (SFT) remains imperative for achieving successful convergence. In this paper, we study the crucial role of SFT within the context of preference alignment, emphasizing that a minor penalty for the disfavored generation style is sufficient for preference-aligned SFT. Building on this foundation, we introduce a straightforward and innovative reference model-free monolithic odds ratio preference optimization algorithm, ORPO, eliminating the necessity for an additional preference alignment phase. We demonstrate, both empirically and theoretically, that the odds ratio is a sensible choice for contrasting favored and disfavored styles during SFT across the diverse sizes from 125M to 7B. Specifically, fine-tuning Phi-2 (2.7B), Llama-2 (7B), and Mistral (7B) with ORPO on the UltraFeedback alone surpasses the performance of state-of-the-art language models with more than 7B and 13B parameters: achieving up to 12.20% on AlpacaEval_{2.0} (Figure 1), 66.19% on IFEval (instruction-level loose, Table 6), and 7.32 in MT-Bench (Figure 12). We release code and model checkpoints for Mistral-ORPO-alpha (7B) and Mistral-ORPO-beta (7B).

We propose a novel framework for incorporating unlabeled data into semi-supervised classification problems, where scenarios involving the minimization of either i) adversarially robust or ii) non-robust loss functions have been considered. Notably, we allow the unlabeled samples to deviate slightly (in total variation sense) from the in-domain distribution. The core idea behind our framework is to combine Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) with self-supervised training. As a result, we also leverage efficient polynomial-time algorithms for the training stage. From a theoretical standpoint, we apply our framework on the classification problem of a mixture of two Gaussians in R^d, where in addition to the m independent and labeled samples from the true distribution, a set of n (usually with ngg m) out of domain and unlabeled samples are given as well. Using only the labeled data, it is known that the generalization error can be bounded by proptoleft(d/mright)^{1/2}. However, using our method on both isotropic and non-isotropic Gaussian mixture models, one can derive a new set of analytically explicit and non-asymptotic bounds which show substantial improvement on the generalization error compared to ERM. Our results underscore two significant insights: 1) out-of-domain samples, even when unlabeled, can be harnessed to narrow the generalization gap, provided that the true data distribution adheres to a form of the ``cluster assumption", and 2) the semi-supervised learning paradigm can be regarded as a special case of our framework when there are no distributional shifts. We validate our claims through experiments conducted on a variety of synthetic and real-world datasets.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

We present SwD, a scale-wise distillation framework for diffusion models (DMs), which effectively employs next-scale prediction ideas for diffusion-based few-step generators. In more detail, SwD is inspired by the recent insights relating diffusion processes to the implicit spectral autoregression. We suppose that DMs can initiate generation at lower data resolutions and gradually upscale the samples at each denoising step without loss in performance while significantly reducing computational costs. SwD naturally integrates this idea into existing diffusion distillation methods based on distribution matching. Also, we enrich the family of distribution matching approaches by introducing a novel patch loss enforcing finer-grained similarity to the target distribution. When applied to state-of-the-art text-to-image diffusion models, SwD approaches the inference times of two full resolution steps and significantly outperforms the counterparts under the same computation budget, as evidenced by automated metrics and human preference studies.

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

A new trend uses LLMs as dense text encoders via contrastive learning. However, since LLM embeddings predict the probability distribution of the next token, they are inherently generative and distributive, conflicting with contrastive learning, which requires embeddings to capture full-text semantics and align via cosine similarity. This discrepancy hinders the full utilization of LLMs' pre-training capabilities, resulting in inefficient learning. In response to this issue, we propose AutoRegEmbed, a new contrastive learning method built on embedding conditional probability distributions, which integrates two core tasks: information compression and conditional distribution alignment. The information compression task encodes text into the embedding space, ensuring that the embedding vectors capture global semantics. The conditional distribution alignment task focuses on aligning text embeddings with positive samples embeddings by leveraging the conditional distribution of embeddings while simultaneously reducing the likelihood of generating negative samples from text embeddings, thereby achieving embedding alignment and uniformity. Experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms traditional contrastive learning approaches and achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art models when using the same amount of data.

Large language models follow a lineage of many NLP applications that were directly inspired by distributional semantics, but do not seem to be closely related to it anymore. In this paper, we propose to employ the distributional theory of meaning once again. Using Independent Component Analysis to overcome some of its challenging aspects, we show that large language models represent semantic features in their hidden states.

Interpretability research now offers a variety of techniques for identifying abstract internal mechanisms in neural networks. Can such techniques be used to predict how models will behave on out-of-distribution examples? In this work, we provide a positive answer to this question. Through a diverse set of language modeling tasks--including symbol manipulation, knowledge retrieval, and instruction following--we show that the most robust features for correctness prediction are those that play a distinctive causal role in the model's behavior. Specifically, we propose two methods that leverage causal mechanisms to predict the correctness of model outputs: counterfactual simulation (checking whether key causal variables are realized) and value probing (using the values of those variables to make predictions). Both achieve high AUC-ROC in distribution and outperform methods that rely on causal-agnostic features in out-of-distribution settings, where predicting model behaviors is more crucial. Our work thus highlights a novel and significant application for internal causal analysis of language models.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

Modern alignment techniques based on human preferences, such as RLHF and DPO, typically employ divergence regularization relative to the reference model to ensure training stability. However, this often limits the flexibility of models during alignment, especially when there is a clear distributional discrepancy between the preference data and the reference model. In this paper, we focus on the alignment of recent text-to-image diffusion models, such as Stable Diffusion XL (SDXL), and find that this "reference mismatch" is indeed a significant problem in aligning these models due to the unstructured nature of visual modalities: e.g., a preference for a particular stylistic aspect can easily induce such a discrepancy. Motivated by this observation, we propose a novel and memory-friendly preference alignment method for diffusion models that does not depend on any reference model, coined margin-aware preference optimization (MaPO). MaPO jointly maximizes the likelihood margin between the preferred and dispreferred image sets and the likelihood of the preferred sets, simultaneously learning general stylistic features and preferences. For evaluation, we introduce two new pairwise preference datasets, which comprise self-generated image pairs from SDXL, Pick-Style and Pick-Safety, simulating diverse scenarios of reference mismatch. Our experiments validate that MaPO can significantly improve alignment on Pick-Style and Pick-Safety and general preference alignment when used with Pick-a-Pic v2, surpassing the base SDXL and other existing methods. Our code, models, and datasets are publicly available via https://mapo-t2i.github.io

We propose a new approach for propagating stable probability distributions through neural networks. Our method is based on local linearization, which we show to be an optimal approximation in terms of total variation distance for the ReLU non-linearity. This allows propagating Gaussian and Cauchy input uncertainties through neural networks to quantify their output uncertainties. To demonstrate the utility of propagating distributions, we apply the proposed method to predicting calibrated confidence intervals and selective prediction on out-of-distribution data. The results demonstrate a broad applicability of propagating distributions and show the advantages of our method over other approaches such as moment matching.

Several studies have compared the in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of models in computer vision and NLP. They report a frequent positive correlation and some surprisingly never even observe an inverse correlation indicative of a necessary trade-off. The possibility of inverse patterns is important to determine whether ID performance can serve as a proxy for OOD generalization capabilities. This paper shows with multiple datasets that inverse correlations between ID and OOD performance do happen in real-world data - not only in theoretical worst-case settings. We also explain theoretically how these cases can arise even in a minimal linear setting, and why past studies could miss such cases due to a biased selection of models. Our observations lead to recommendations that contradict those found in much of the current literature. - High OOD performance sometimes requires trading off ID performance. - Focusing on ID performance alone may not lead to optimal OOD performance. It may produce diminishing (eventually negative) returns in OOD performance. - In these cases, studies on OOD generalization that use ID performance for model selection (a common recommended practice) will necessarily miss the best-performing models, making these studies blind to a whole range of phenomena.

Visual recognition models are prone to learning spurious correlations induced by a biased training set where certain conditions B (\eg, Indoors) are over-represented in certain classes Y (\eg, Big Dogs). Synthetic data from off-the-shelf large-scale generative models offers a promising direction to mitigate this issue by augmenting underrepresented subgroups in the real dataset. However, by using a mixed distribution of real and synthetic data, we introduce another source of bias due to distributional differences between synthetic and real data (\eg synthetic artifacts). As we will show, prior work's approach for using synthetic data to resolve the model's bias toward B do not correct the model's bias toward the pair (B, G), where G denotes whether the sample is real or synthetic. Thus, the model could simply learn signals based on the pair (B, G) (\eg, Synthetic Indoors) to make predictions about Y (\eg, Big Dogs). To address this issue, we propose a simple, easy-to-implement, two-step training pipeline that we call From Fake to Real (FFR). The first step of FFR pre-trains a model on balanced synthetic data to learn robust representations across subgroups. In the second step, FFR fine-tunes the model on real data using ERM or common loss-based bias mitigation methods. By training on real and synthetic data separately, FFR does not expose the model to the statistical differences between real and synthetic data and thus avoids the issue of bias toward the pair (B, G). Our experiments show that FFR improves worst group accuracy over the state-of-the-art by up to 20\% over three datasets. Code available: https://github.com/mqraitem/From-Fake-to-Real

We present a method for making neural network predictions robust to shifts from the training data distribution. The proposed method is based on making predictions via a diverse set of cues (called 'middle domains') and ensembling them into one strong prediction. The premise of the idea is that predictions made via different cues respond differently to a distribution shift, hence one should be able to merge them into one robust final prediction. We perform the merging in a straightforward but principled manner based on the uncertainty associated with each prediction. The evaluations are performed using multiple tasks and datasets (Taskonomy, Replica, ImageNet, CIFAR) under a wide range of adversarial and non-adversarial distribution shifts which demonstrate the proposed method is considerably more robust than its standard learning counterpart, conventional deep ensembles, and several other baselines.

The alignment problem in the context of large language models must consider the plurality of human values in our world. Whilst there are many resonant and overlapping values amongst the world's cultures, there are also many conflicting, yet equally valid, values. It is important to observe which cultural values a model exhibits, particularly when there is a value conflict between input prompts and generated outputs. We discuss how the co-creation of language and cultural value impacts large language models (LLMs). We explore the constitution of the training data for GPT-3 and compare that to the world's language and internet access demographics, as well as to reported statistical profiles of dominant values in some Nation-states. We stress tested GPT-3 with a range of value-rich texts representing several languages and nations; including some with values orthogonal to dominant US public opinion as reported by the World Values Survey. We observed when values embedded in the input text were mutated in the generated outputs and noted when these conflicting values were more aligned with reported dominant US values. Our discussion of these results uses a moral value pluralism (MVP) lens to better understand these value mutations. Finally, we provide recommendations for how our work may contribute to other current work in the field.

Unfairness in mortgage lending has created generational inequality among racial and ethnic groups in the US. Many studies address this problem, but most existing work focuses on correlation-based techniques. In our work, we use the framework of counterfactual fairness to train fair machine learning models. We propose a new causal graph for the variables available in the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data. We use a matching-based approach instead of the latent variable modeling approach, because the former approach does not rely on any modeling assumptions. Furthermore, matching provides us with counterfactual pairs in which the race variable is isolated. We first demonstrate the unfairness in mortgage approval and interest rates between African-American and non-Hispanic White sub-populations. Then, we show that having balanced data using matching does not guarantee perfect counterfactual fairness of the machine learning models.

Feature attribution methods identify which features of an input most influence a model's output. Most widely-used feature attribution methods (such as SHAP, LIME, and Grad-CAM) are "class-dependent" methods in that they generate a feature attribution vector as a function of class. In this work, we demonstrate that class-dependent methods can "leak" information about the selected class, making that class appear more likely than it is. Thus, an end user runs the risk of drawing false conclusions when interpreting an explanation generated by a class-dependent method. In contrast, we introduce "distribution-aware" methods, which favor explanations that keep the label's distribution close to its distribution given all features of the input. We introduce SHAP-KL and FastSHAP-KL, two baseline distribution-aware methods that compute Shapley values. Finally, we perform a comprehensive evaluation of seven class-dependent and three distribution-aware methods on three clinical datasets of different high-dimensional data types: images, biosignals, and text.

Fine-tuning large language models on narrow datasets can cause them to develop broadly misaligned behaviours: a phenomena known as emergent misalignment. However, the mechanisms underlying this misalignment, and why it generalizes beyond the training domain, are poorly understood, demonstrating critical gaps in our knowledge of model alignment. In this work, we train and study a minimal model organism which uses just 9 rank-1 adapters to emergently misalign Qwen2.5-14B-Instruct. Studying this, we find that different emergently misaligned models converge to similar representations of misalignment. We demonstrate this convergence by extracting a 'misalignment direction' from one fine-tuned model's activations, and using it to effectively ablate misaligned behaviour from fine-tunes using higher dimensional LoRAs and different datasets. Leveraging the scalar hidden state of rank-1 LoRAs, we further present a set of experiments for directly interpreting the fine-tuning adapters, showing that six contribute to general misalignment, while two specialise for misalignment in just the fine-tuning domain. Emergent misalignment is a particularly salient example of undesirable and unexpected model behaviour and by advancing our understanding of the mechanisms behind it, we hope to move towards being able to better understand and mitigate misalignment more generally.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

Language models (LM) are capable of remarkably complex linguistic tasks; however, numerical reasoning is an area in which they frequently struggle. An important but rarely evaluated form of reasoning is understanding probability distributions. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of LMs using idealized and real-world statistical distributions. We perform a systematic evaluation of state-of-the-art LMs on three tasks: estimating percentiles, drawing samples, and calculating probabilities. We evaluate three ways to provide context to LMs 1) anchoring examples from within a distribution or family of distributions, 2) real-world context, 3) summary statistics on which to base a Normal approximation. Models can make inferences about distributions, and can be further aided by the incorporation of real-world context, example shots and simplified assumptions, even if these assumptions are incorrect or misspecified. To conduct this work, we developed a comprehensive benchmark distribution dataset with associated question-answer pairs that we will release publicly.

Many real-world scenarios in which DNN-based recognition systems are deployed have inherently fine-grained attributes (e.g., bird-species recognition, medical image classification). In addition to achieving reliable accuracy, a critical subtask for these models is to detect Out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. Given the nature of the deployment environment, one may expect such OOD inputs to also be fine-grained w.r.t. the known classes (e.g., a novel bird species), which are thus extremely difficult to identify. Unfortunately, OOD detection in fine-grained scenarios remains largely underexplored. In this work, we aim to fill this gap by first carefully constructing four large-scale fine-grained test environments, in which existing methods are shown to have difficulties. Particularly, we find that even explicitly incorporating a diverse set of auxiliary outlier data during training does not provide sufficient coverage over the broad region where fine-grained OOD samples locate. We then propose Mixture Outlier Exposure (MixOE), which mixes ID data and training outliers to expand the coverage of different OOD granularities, and trains the model such that the prediction confidence linearly decays as the input transitions from ID to OOD. Extensive experiments and analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of MixOE for building up OOD detector in fine-grained environments. The code is available at https://github.com/zjysteven/MixOE.

Ensuring equitable treatment (fairness) across protected attributes (such as gender or ethnicity) is a critical issue in machine learning. Most existing literature focuses on binary classification, but achieving fairness in regression tasks-such as insurance pricing or hiring score assessments-is equally important. Moreover, anti-discrimination laws also apply to continuous attributes, such as age, for which many existing methods are not applicable. In practice, multiple protected attributes can exist simultaneously; however, methods targeting fairness across several attributes often overlook so-called "fairness gerrymandering", thereby ignoring disparities among intersectional subgroups (e.g., African-American women or Hispanic men). In this paper, we propose a distance covariance regularisation framework that mitigates the association between model predictions and protected attributes, in line with the fairness definition of demographic parity, and that captures both linear and nonlinear dependencies. To enhance applicability in the presence of multiple protected attributes, we extend our framework by incorporating two multivariate dependence measures based on distance covariance: the previously proposed joint distance covariance (JdCov) and our novel concatenated distance covariance (CCdCov), which effectively address fairness gerrymandering in both regression and classification tasks involving protected attributes of various types. We discuss and illustrate how to calibrate regularisation strength, including a method based on Jensen-Shannon divergence, which quantifies dissimilarities in prediction distributions across groups. We apply our framework to the COMPAS recidivism dataset and a large motor insurance claims dataset.

The recent trend towards Personalized Federated Learning (PFL) has garnered significant attention as it allows for the training of models that are tailored to each client while maintaining data privacy. However, current PFL techniques primarily focus on modeling the conditional distribution heterogeneity (i.e. concept shift), which can result in suboptimal performance when the distribution of input data across clients diverges (i.e. covariate shift). Additionally, these techniques often lack the ability to adapt to unseen data, further limiting their effectiveness in real-world scenarios. To address these limitations, we propose a novel approach, FedGMM, which utilizes Gaussian mixture models (GMM) to effectively fit the input data distributions across diverse clients. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood estimation utilizing a federated Expectation-Maximization algorithm, which is solved in closed form and does not assume gradient similarity. Furthermore, FedGMM possesses an additional advantage of adapting to new clients with minimal overhead, and it also enables uncertainty quantification. Empirical evaluations on synthetic and benchmark datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method in both PFL classification and novel sample detection.

Large language models achieve high performance on many but not all downstream tasks. The interaction between pretraining data and task data is commonly assumed to determine this variance: a task with data that is more similar to a model's pretraining data is assumed to be easier for that model. We test whether distributional and example-specific similarity measures (embedding-, token- and model-based) correlate with language model performance through a large-scale comparison of the Pile and C4 pretraining datasets with downstream benchmarks. Similarity correlates with performance for multilingual datasets, but in other benchmarks, we surprisingly find that similarity metrics are not correlated with accuracy or even each other. This suggests that the relationship between pretraining data and downstream tasks is more complex than often assumed.

There is a long history, as well as a recent explosion of interest, in statistical and generative modeling approaches based on score functions -- derivatives of the log-likelihood of a distribution. In seminal works, Hyv\"arinen proposed vanilla score matching as a way to learn distributions from data by computing an estimate of the score function of the underlying ground truth, and established connections between this method and established techniques like Contrastive Divergence and Pseudolikelihood estimation. It is by now well-known that vanilla score matching has significant difficulties learning multimodal distributions. Although there are various ways to overcome this difficulty, the following question has remained unanswered -- is there a natural way to sample multimodal distributions using just the vanilla score? Inspired by a long line of related experimental works, we prove that the Langevin diffusion with early stopping, initialized at the empirical distribution, and run on a score function estimated from data successfully generates natural multimodal distributions (mixtures of log-concave distributions).

This paper studies distributional model risk in marginal problems, where each marginal measure is assumed to lie in a Wasserstein ball centered at a fixed reference measure with a given radius. Theoretically, we establish several fundamental results including strong duality, finiteness of the proposed Wasserstein distributional model risk, and the existence of an optimizer at each radius. In addition, we show continuity of the Wasserstein distributional model risk as a function of the radius. Using strong duality, we extend the well-known Makarov bounds for the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with given marginals to Wasserstein distributionally robust Markarov bounds. Practically, we illustrate our results on four distinct applications when the sample information comes from multiple data sources and only some marginal reference measures are identified. They are: partial identification of treatment effects; externally valid treatment choice via robust welfare functions; Wasserstein distributionally robust estimation under data combination; and evaluation of the worst aggregate risk measures.

A common approach for aligning language models to human preferences is to first learn a reward model from preference data, and then use this reward model to update the language model. We study two closely related problems that arise in this approach. First, any monotone transformation of the reward model preserves preference ranking; is there a choice that is ``better'' than others? Second, we often wish to align language models to multiple properties: how should we combine multiple reward models? Using a probabilistic interpretation of the alignment procedure, we identify a natural choice for transformation for (the common case of) rewards learned from Bradley-Terry preference models. This derived transformation has two important properties. First, it emphasizes improving poorly-performing outputs, rather than outputs that already score well. This mitigates both underfitting (where some prompts are not improved) and reward hacking (where the model learns to exploit misspecification of the reward model). Second, it enables principled aggregation of rewards by linking summation to logical conjunction: the sum of transformed rewards corresponds to the probability that the output is ``good'' in all measured properties, in a sense we make precise. Experiments aligning language models to be both helpful and harmless using RLHF show substantial improvements over the baseline (non-transformed) approach.

We present a straightforward statistical test to detect certain violations of the assumption that the data are Independent and Identically Distributed (IID). The specific form of violation considered is common across real-world applications: whether the examples are ordered in the dataset such that almost adjacent examples tend to have more similar feature values (e.g. due to distributional drift, or attractive interactions between datapoints). Based on a k-Nearest Neighbors estimate, our approach can be used to audit any multivariate numeric data as well as other data types (image, text, audio, etc.) that can be numerically represented, perhaps with model embeddings. Compared with existing methods to detect drift or auto-correlation, our approach is both applicable to more types of data and also able to detect a wider variety of IID violations in practice. Code: https://github.com/cleanlab/cleanlab

Conventional wisdom suggests that neural network predictions tend to be unpredictable and overconfident when faced with out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. Our work reassesses this assumption for neural networks with high-dimensional inputs. Rather than extrapolating in arbitrary ways, we observe that neural network predictions often tend towards a constant value as input data becomes increasingly OOD. Moreover, we find that this value often closely approximates the optimal constant solution (OCS), i.e., the prediction that minimizes the average loss over the training data without observing the input. We present results showing this phenomenon across 8 datasets with different distributional shifts (including CIFAR10-C and ImageNet-R, S), different loss functions (cross entropy, MSE, and Gaussian NLL), and different architectures (CNNs and transformers). Furthermore, we present an explanation for this behavior, which we first validate empirically and then study theoretically in a simplified setting involving deep homogeneous networks with ReLU activations. Finally, we show how one can leverage our insights in practice to enable risk-sensitive decision-making in the presence of OOD inputs.