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Mar 10

ST-LINK: Spatially-Aware Large Language Models for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

Traffic forecasting represents a crucial problem within intelligent transportation systems. In recent research, Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a promising method, but their intrinsic design, tailored primarily for sequential token processing, introduces notable challenges in effectively capturing spatial dependencies. Specifically, the inherent limitations of LLMs in modeling spatial relationships and their architectural incompatibility with graph-structured spatial data remain largely unaddressed. To overcome these limitations, we introduce ST-LINK, a novel framework that enhances the capability of Large Language Models to capture spatio-temporal dependencies. Its key components are Spatially-Enhanced Attention (SE-Attention) and the Memory Retrieval Feed-Forward Network (MRFFN). SE-Attention extends rotary position embeddings to integrate spatial correlations as direct rotational transformations within the attention mechanism. This approach maximizes spatial learning while preserving the LLM's inherent sequential processing structure. Meanwhile, MRFFN dynamically retrieves and utilizes key historical patterns to capture complex temporal dependencies and improve the stability of long-term forecasting. Comprehensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that ST-LINK surpasses conventional deep learning and LLM approaches, and effectively captures both regular traffic patterns and abrupt changes.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 17, 2025 1

HPNet: Dynamic Trajectory Forecasting with Historical Prediction Attention

Predicting the trajectories of road agents is essential for autonomous driving systems. The recent mainstream methods follow a static paradigm, which predicts the future trajectory by using a fixed duration of historical frames. These methods make the predictions independently even at adjacent time steps, which leads to potential instability and temporal inconsistency. As successive time steps have largely overlapping historical frames, their forecasting should have intrinsic correlation, such as overlapping predicted trajectories should be consistent, or be different but share the same motion goal depending on the road situation. Motivated by this, in this work, we introduce HPNet, a novel dynamic trajectory forecasting method. Aiming for stable and accurate trajectory forecasting, our method leverages not only historical frames including maps and agent states, but also historical predictions. Specifically, we newly design a Historical Prediction Attention module to automatically encode the dynamic relationship between successive predictions. Besides, it also extends the attention range beyond the currently visible window benefitting from the use of historical predictions. The proposed Historical Prediction Attention together with the Agent Attention and Mode Attention is further formulated as the Triple Factorized Attention module, serving as the core design of HPNet.Experiments on the Argoverse and INTERACTION datasets show that HPNet achieves state-of-the-art performance, and generates accurate and stable future trajectories. Our code are available at https://github.com/XiaolongTang23/HPNet.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 9, 2024

Frequency-domain MLPs are More Effective Learners in Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting has played the key role in different industrial, including finance, traffic, energy, and healthcare domains. While existing literatures have designed many sophisticated architectures based on RNNs, GNNs, or Transformers, another kind of approaches based on multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) are proposed with simple structure, low complexity, and {superior performance}. However, most MLP-based forecasting methods suffer from the point-wise mappings and information bottleneck, which largely hinders the forecasting performance. To overcome this problem, we explore a novel direction of applying MLPs in the frequency domain for time series forecasting. We investigate the learned patterns of frequency-domain MLPs and discover their two inherent characteristic benefiting forecasting, (i) global view: frequency spectrum makes MLPs own a complete view for signals and learn global dependencies more easily, and (ii) energy compaction: frequency-domain MLPs concentrate on smaller key part of frequency components with compact signal energy. Then, we propose FreTS, a simple yet effective architecture built upon Frequency-domain MLPs for Time Series forecasting. FreTS mainly involves two stages, (i) Domain Conversion, that transforms time-domain signals into complex numbers of frequency domain; (ii) Frequency Learning, that performs our redesigned MLPs for the learning of real and imaginary part of frequency components. The above stages operated on both inter-series and intra-series scales further contribute to channel-wise and time-wise dependency learning. Extensive experiments on 13 real-world benchmarks (including 7 benchmarks for short-term forecasting and 6 benchmarks for long-term forecasting) demonstrate our consistent superiority over state-of-the-art methods.

  • 10 authors
·
Nov 10, 2023

Geographic Location Encoding with Spherical Harmonics and Sinusoidal Representation Networks

Learning feature representations of geographical space is vital for any machine learning model that integrates geolocated data, spanning application domains such as remote sensing, ecology, or epidemiology. Recent work mostly embeds coordinates using sine and cosine projections based on Double Fourier Sphere (DFS) features -- these embeddings assume a rectangular data domain even on global data, which can lead to artifacts, especially at the poles. At the same time, relatively little attention has been paid to the exact design of the neural network architectures these functional embeddings are combined with. This work proposes a novel location encoder for globally distributed geographic data that combines spherical harmonic basis functions, natively defined on spherical surfaces, with sinusoidal representation networks (SirenNets) that can be interpreted as learned Double Fourier Sphere embedding. We systematically evaluate the cross-product of positional embeddings and neural network architectures across various classification and regression benchmarks and synthetic evaluation datasets. In contrast to previous approaches that require the combination of both positional encoding and neural networks to learn meaningful representations, we show that both spherical harmonics and sinusoidal representation networks are competitive on their own but set state-of-the-art performances across tasks when combined. We provide source code at www.github.com/marccoru/locationencoder

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 10, 2023

NSTR: Neural Spectral Transport Representation for Space-Varying Frequency Fields

Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) have emerged as a powerful paradigm for representing signals such as images, audio, and 3D scenes. However, existing INR frameworks -- including MLPs with Fourier features, SIREN, and multiresolution hash grids -- implicitly assume a global and stationary spectral basis. This assumption is fundamentally misaligned with real-world signals whose frequency characteristics vary significantly across space, exhibiting local high-frequency textures, smooth regions, and frequency drift phenomena. We propose Neural Spectral Transport Representation (NSTR), the first INR framework that explicitly models a spatially varying local frequency field. NSTR introduces a learnable frequency transport equation, a PDE that governs how local spectral compositions evolve across space. Given a learnable local spectrum field S(x) and a frequency transport network F_θ enforcing nabla S(x) approx F_θ(x, S(x)), NSTR reconstructs signals by spatially modulating a compact set of global sinusoidal bases. This formulation enables strong local adaptivity and offers a new level of interpretability via visualizing frequency flows. Experiments on 2D image regression, audio reconstruction, and implicit 3D geometry show that NSTR achieves significantly better accuracy-parameter trade-offs than SIREN, Fourier-feature MLPs, and Instant-NGP. NSTR requires fewer global frequencies, converges faster, and naturally explains signal structure through spectral transport fields. We believe NSTR opens a new direction in INR research by introducing explicit modeling of space-varying spectrum.

  • 1 authors
·
Nov 23, 2025

Spectral Bottleneck in Deep Neural Networks: Noise is All You Need

Deep neural networks are known to exhibit a spectral learning bias, wherein low-frequency components are learned early in training, while high-frequency modes emerge more gradually in later epochs. However, when the target signal lacks low-frequency components and is dominated by broadband high frequencies, training suffers from a 'spectral bottleneck', and the model fails to reconstruct the entire signal, including the frequency components that lie within the network's representational capacity. We examine such a scenario in the context of implicit neural representations (INRs) with sinusoidal representation networks (SIRENs), focusing on the challenge of fitting high-frequency-dominant signals that are susceptible to spectral bottleneck. To effectively fit any target signal irrespective of it's frequency content, we propose a generalized target-aware 'weight perturbation scheme' (WINNER - weight initialization with noise for neural representations) for network initialization. The scheme perturbs uniformly initialized weights with Gaussian noise, where the noise scales are adaptively determined by the spectral centroid of the target signal. We show that the noise scales can provide control over the spectra of network activations and the eigenbasis of the empirical neural tangent kernel. This method not only addresses the spectral bottleneck but also yields faster convergence and with improved representation accuracy, outperforming state-of-the-art approaches in audio fitting and achieving notable gains in image fitting and denoising tasks. Beyond signal reconstruction, our approach opens new directions for adaptive weight initialization strategies in computer vision and scientific machine learning.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 9, 2025

Scaling Implicit Fields via Hypernetwork-Driven Multiscale Coordinate Transformations

Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) have emerged as a powerful paradigm for representing signals such as images, 3D shapes, signed distance fields, and radiance fields. While significant progress has been made in architecture design (e.g., SIREN, FFC, KAN-based INRs) and optimization strategies (meta-learning, amortization, distillation), existing approaches still suffer from two core limitations: (1) a representation bottleneck that forces a single MLP to uniformly model heterogeneous local structures, and (2) limited scalability due to the absence of a hierarchical mechanism that dynamically adapts to signal complexity. This work introduces Hyper-Coordinate Implicit Neural Representations (HC-INR), a new class of INRs that break the representational bottleneck by learning signal-adaptive coordinate transformations using a hypernetwork. HC-INR decomposes the representation task into two components: (i) a learned multiscale coordinate transformation module that warps the input domain into a disentangled latent space, and (ii) a compact implicit field network that models the transformed signal with significantly reduced complexity. The proposed model introduces a hierarchical hypernetwork architecture that conditions coordinate transformations on local signal features, enabling dynamic allocation of representation capacity. We theoretically show that HC-INR strictly increases the upper bound of representable frequency bands while maintaining Lipschitz stability. Extensive experiments across image fitting, shape reconstruction, and neural radiance field approximation demonstrate that HC-INR achieves up to 4 times higher reconstruction fidelity than strong INR baselines while using 30--60\% fewer parameters.

  • 1 authors
·
Nov 23, 2025

NeuRBF: A Neural Fields Representation with Adaptive Radial Basis Functions

We present a novel type of neural fields that uses general radial bases for signal representation. State-of-the-art neural fields typically rely on grid-based representations for storing local neural features and N-dimensional linear kernels for interpolating features at continuous query points. The spatial positions of their neural features are fixed on grid nodes and cannot well adapt to target signals. Our method instead builds upon general radial bases with flexible kernel position and shape, which have higher spatial adaptivity and can more closely fit target signals. To further improve the channel-wise capacity of radial basis functions, we propose to compose them with multi-frequency sinusoid functions. This technique extends a radial basis to multiple Fourier radial bases of different frequency bands without requiring extra parameters, facilitating the representation of details. Moreover, by marrying adaptive radial bases with grid-based ones, our hybrid combination inherits both adaptivity and interpolation smoothness. We carefully designed weighting schemes to let radial bases adapt to different types of signals effectively. Our experiments on 2D image and 3D signed distance field representation demonstrate the higher accuracy and compactness of our method than prior arts. When applied to neural radiance field reconstruction, our method achieves state-of-the-art rendering quality, with small model size and comparable training speed.

  • 7 authors
·
Sep 27, 2023 2

The Principles of Deep Learning Theory

This book develops an effective theory approach to understanding deep neural networks of practical relevance. Beginning from a first-principles component-level picture of networks, we explain how to determine an accurate description of the output of trained networks by solving layer-to-layer iteration equations and nonlinear learning dynamics. A main result is that the predictions of networks are described by nearly-Gaussian distributions, with the depth-to-width aspect ratio of the network controlling the deviations from the infinite-width Gaussian description. We explain how these effectively-deep networks learn nontrivial representations from training and more broadly analyze the mechanism of representation learning for nonlinear models. From a nearly-kernel-methods perspective, we find that the dependence of such models' predictions on the underlying learning algorithm can be expressed in a simple and universal way. To obtain these results, we develop the notion of representation group flow (RG flow) to characterize the propagation of signals through the network. By tuning networks to criticality, we give a practical solution to the exploding and vanishing gradient problem. We further explain how RG flow leads to near-universal behavior and lets us categorize networks built from different activation functions into universality classes. Altogether, we show that the depth-to-width ratio governs the effective model complexity of the ensemble of trained networks. By using information-theoretic techniques, we estimate the optimal aspect ratio at which we expect the network to be practically most useful and show how residual connections can be used to push this scale to arbitrary depths. With these tools, we can learn in detail about the inductive bias of architectures, hyperparameters, and optimizers.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 18, 2021

Block-Recurrent Dynamics in Vision Transformers

As Vision Transformers (ViTs) become standard vision backbones, a mechanistic account of their computational phenomenology is essential. Despite architectural cues that hint at dynamical structure, there is no settled framework that interprets Transformer depth as a well-characterized flow. In this work, we introduce the Block-Recurrent Hypothesis (BRH), arguing that trained ViTs admit a block-recurrent depth structure such that the computation of the original L blocks can be accurately rewritten using only k ll L distinct blocks applied recurrently. Across diverse ViTs, between-layer representational similarity matrices suggest few contiguous phases. To determine whether these phases reflect genuinely reusable computation, we train block-recurrent surrogates of pretrained ViTs: Recurrent Approximations to Phase-structured TransfORmers (Raptor). In small-scale, we demonstrate that stochastic depth and training promote recurrent structure and subsequently correlate with our ability to accurately fit Raptor. We then provide an empirical existence proof for BRH by training a Raptor model to recover 96% of DINOv2 ImageNet-1k linear probe accuracy in only 2 blocks at equivalent computational cost. Finally, we leverage our hypothesis to develop a program of Dynamical Interpretability. We find i) directional convergence into class-dependent angular basins with self-correcting trajectories under small perturbations, ii) token-specific dynamics, where cls executes sharp late reorientations while patch tokens exhibit strong late-stage coherence toward their mean direction, and iii) a collapse to low rank updates in late depth, consistent with convergence to low-dimensional attractors. Altogether, we find a compact recurrent program emerges along ViT depth, pointing to a low-complexity normative solution that enables these models to be studied through principled dynamical systems analysis.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 22, 2025

FRCRN: Boosting Feature Representation using Frequency Recurrence for Monaural Speech Enhancement

Convolutional recurrent networks (CRN) integrating a convolutional encoder-decoder (CED) structure and a recurrent structure have achieved promising performance for monaural speech enhancement. However, feature representation across frequency context is highly constrained due to limited receptive fields in the convolutions of CED. In this paper, we propose a convolutional recurrent encoder-decoder (CRED) structure to boost feature representation along the frequency axis. The CRED applies frequency recurrence on 3D convolutional feature maps along the frequency axis following each convolution, therefore, it is capable of catching long-range frequency correlations and enhancing feature representations of speech inputs. The proposed frequency recurrence is realized efficiently using a feedforward sequential memory network (FSMN). Besides the CRED, we insert two stacked FSMN layers between the encoder and the decoder to model further temporal dynamics. We name the proposed framework as Frequency Recurrent CRN (FRCRN). We design FRCRN to predict complex Ideal Ratio Mask (cIRM) in complex-valued domain and optimize FRCRN using both time-frequency-domain and time-domain losses. Our proposed approach achieved state-of-the-art performance on wideband benchmark datasets and achieved 2nd place for the real-time fullband track in terms of Mean Opinion Score (MOS) and Word Accuracy (WAcc) in the ICASSP 2022 Deep Noise Suppression (DNS) challenge (https://github.com/alibabasglab/FRCRN).

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 15, 2022

Deconstructing Recurrence, Attention, and Gating: Investigating the transferability of Transformers and Gated Recurrent Neural Networks in forecasting of dynamical systems

Machine learning architectures, including transformers and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have revolutionized forecasting in applications ranging from text processing to extreme weather. Notably, advanced network architectures, tuned for applications such as natural language processing, are transferable to other tasks such as spatiotemporal forecasting tasks. However, there is a scarcity of ablation studies to illustrate the key components that enable this forecasting accuracy. The absence of such studies, although explainable due to the associated computational cost, intensifies the belief that these models ought to be considered as black boxes. In this work, we decompose the key architectural components of the most powerful neural architectures, namely gating and recurrence in RNNs, and attention mechanisms in transformers. Then, we synthesize and build novel hybrid architectures from the standard blocks, performing ablation studies to identify which mechanisms are effective for each task. The importance of considering these components as hyper-parameters that can augment the standard architectures is exhibited on various forecasting datasets, from the spatiotemporal chaotic dynamics of the multiscale Lorenz 96 system, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, as well as standard real world time-series benchmarks. A key finding is that neural gating and attention improves the performance of all standard RNNs in most tasks, while the addition of a notion of recurrence in transformers is detrimental. Furthermore, our study reveals that a novel, sparsely used, architecture which integrates Recurrent Highway Networks with neural gating and attention mechanisms, emerges as the best performing architecture in high-dimensional spatiotemporal forecasting of dynamical systems.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 3, 2024

Rotary Positional Embeddings as Phase Modulation: Theoretical Bounds on the RoPE Base for Long-Context Transformers

Rotary positional embeddings (RoPE) are widely used in large language models to encode token positions through multiplicative rotations, yet their behavior at long context lengths remains poorly characterized. In this work, we reinterpret RoPE as phase modulation applied to a bank of complex oscillators, enabling analysis through classical signal processing theory. Under this formulation, we derive principled lower bounds on the RoPE base parameter that are necessary to preserve positional coherence over a target context length. These include a fundamental aliasing bound, analogous to a Nyquist limit, and a DC-component stability bound that constrains phase drift in low-frequency positional modes. We further extend this analysis to deep transformers, showing that repeated rotary modulation across layers compounds angular misalignment, tightening the base requirement as depth increases. Complementing these results, we derive a precision-dependent upper bound on the RoPE base arising from finite floating-point resolution. Beyond this limit, incremental phase updates become numerically indistinguishable, leading to positional erasure even in the absence of aliasing. Together, the lower and upper bounds define a precision- and depth-dependent feasibility region a Goldilocks zone for long-context transformers. We validate the framework through a comprehensive case study of state-of-the-art models, including LLaMA, Mistral, and DeepSeek variants, showing that observed successes, failures, and community retrofits align closely with the predicted bounds. Notably, models that violate the stability bound exhibit attention collapse and long-range degradation, while attempts to scale beyond one million tokens encounter a hard precision wall independent of architecture or training.

  • 1 authors
·
Feb 11

GMAN: A Graph Multi-Attention Network for Traffic Prediction

Long-term traffic prediction is highly challenging due to the complexity of traffic systems and the constantly changing nature of many impacting factors. In this paper, we focus on the spatio-temporal factors, and propose a graph multi-attention network (GMAN) to predict traffic conditions for time steps ahead at different locations on a road network graph. GMAN adapts an encoder-decoder architecture, where both the encoder and the decoder consist of multiple spatio-temporal attention blocks to model the impact of the spatio-temporal factors on traffic conditions. The encoder encodes the input traffic features and the decoder predicts the output sequence. Between the encoder and the decoder, a transform attention layer is applied to convert the encoded traffic features to generate the sequence representations of future time steps as the input of the decoder. The transform attention mechanism models the direct relationships between historical and future time steps that helps to alleviate the error propagation problem among prediction time steps. Experimental results on two real-world traffic prediction tasks (i.e., traffic volume prediction and traffic speed prediction) demonstrate the superiority of GMAN. In particular, in the 1 hour ahead prediction, GMAN outperforms state-of-the-art methods by up to 4% improvement in MAE measure. The source code is available at https://github.com/zhengchuanpan/GMAN.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 11, 2019

U6G XL-MIMO Radiomap Prediction: Multi-Config Dataset and Beam Map Approach

The upper 6 GHz (U6G) band with XL-MIMO is a key enabler for sixth-generation wireless systems, yet intelligent radiomap prediction for such systems remains challenging. Existing datasets support only small-scale arrays (up to 8x8) with predominantly isotropic antennas, far from the 1024-element directional arrays envisioned for 6G. Moreover, current methods encode array configurations as scalar parameters, forcing neural networks to extrapolate array-specific radiation patterns, which fails when predicting radiomaps for configurations absent from training data. To jointly address data scarcity and generalization limitations, this paper advances XL-MIMO radiomap prediction from three aspects. To overcome data limitations, we construct the first XL-MIMO radiomap dataset containing 78400 radiomaps across 800 urban scenes, five frequency bands (1.8-6.7 GHz), and nine array configurations up to 32x32 uniform planar arrays with directional elements. To enable systematic evaluation, we establish a comprehensive benchmark framework covering practical scenarios from coverage estimation without field measurements to generalization across unseen configurations and environments. To enable generalization to arbitrary beam configurations without retraining, we propose the beam map, a physics-informed spatial feature that analytically computes array-specific coverage patterns. By decoupling deterministic array radiation from data learned multipath propagation, beam maps shift generalization from neural network extrapolation to physics-based computation. Integrating beam maps into existing architectures reduces mean absolute error by up to 60.0% when generalizing to unseen configurations and up to 50.5% when transferring to unseen environments. The complete dataset and code are publicly available at https://lxj321.github.io/MulticonfigRadiomapDataset/.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 6

Outliers with Opposing Signals Have an Outsized Effect on Neural Network Optimization

We identify a new phenomenon in neural network optimization which arises from the interaction of depth and a particular heavy-tailed structure in natural data. Our result offers intuitive explanations for several previously reported observations about network training dynamics. In particular, it implies a conceptually new cause for progressive sharpening and the edge of stability; we also highlight connections to other concepts in optimization and generalization including grokking, simplicity bias, and Sharpness-Aware Minimization. Experimentally, we demonstrate the significant influence of paired groups of outliers in the training data with strong opposing signals: consistent, large magnitude features which dominate the network output throughout training and provide gradients which point in opposite directions. Due to these outliers, early optimization enters a narrow valley which carefully balances the opposing groups; subsequent sharpening causes their loss to rise rapidly, oscillating between high on one group and then the other, until the overall loss spikes. We describe how to identify these groups, explore what sets them apart, and carefully study their effect on the network's optimization and behavior. We complement these experiments with a mechanistic explanation on a toy example of opposing signals and a theoretical analysis of a two-layer linear network on a simple model. Our finding enables new qualitative predictions of training behavior which we confirm experimentally. It also provides a new lens through which to study and improve modern training practices for stochastic optimization, which we highlight via a case study of Adam versus SGD.

  • 2 authors
·
Nov 7, 2023

Spatial-Temporal Transformer Networks for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Traffic forecasting has emerged as a core component of intelligent transportation systems. However, timely accurate traffic forecasting, especially long-term forecasting, still remains an open challenge due to the highly nonlinear and dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies of traffic flows. In this paper, we propose a novel paradigm of Spatial-Temporal Transformer Networks (STTNs) that leverages dynamical directed spatial dependencies and long-range temporal dependencies to improve the accuracy of long-term traffic forecasting. Specifically, we present a new variant of graph neural networks, named spatial transformer, by dynamically modeling directed spatial dependencies with self-attention mechanism to capture realtime traffic conditions as well as the directionality of traffic flows. Furthermore, different spatial dependency patterns can be jointly modeled with multi-heads attention mechanism to consider diverse relationships related to different factors (e.g. similarity, connectivity and covariance). On the other hand, the temporal transformer is utilized to model long-range bidirectional temporal dependencies across multiple time steps. Finally, they are composed as a block to jointly model the spatial-temporal dependencies for accurate traffic prediction. Compared to existing works, the proposed model enables fast and scalable training over a long range spatial-temporal dependencies. Experiment results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves competitive results compared with the state-of-the-arts, especially forecasting long-term traffic flows on real-world PeMS-Bay and PeMSD7(M) datasets.

  • 7 authors
·
Jan 9, 2020 1

Rank-DETR for High Quality Object Detection

Modern detection transformers (DETRs) use a set of object queries to predict a list of bounding boxes, sort them by their classification confidence scores, and select the top-ranked predictions as the final detection results for the given input image. A highly performant object detector requires accurate ranking for the bounding box predictions. For DETR-based detectors, the top-ranked bounding boxes suffer from less accurate localization quality due to the misalignment between classification scores and localization accuracy, thus impeding the construction of high-quality detectors. In this work, we introduce a simple and highly performant DETR-based object detector by proposing a series of rank-oriented designs, combinedly called Rank-DETR. Our key contributions include: (i) a rank-oriented architecture design that can prompt positive predictions and suppress the negative ones to ensure lower false positive rates, as well as (ii) a rank-oriented loss function and matching cost design that prioritizes predictions of more accurate localization accuracy during ranking to boost the AP under high IoU thresholds. We apply our method to improve the recent SOTA methods (e.g., H-DETR and DINO-DETR) and report strong COCO object detection results when using different backbones such as ResNet-50, Swin-T, and Swin-L, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach. Code is available at https://github.com/LeapLabTHU/Rank-DETR.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 13, 2023

OLinear: A Linear Model for Time Series Forecasting in Orthogonally Transformed Domain

This paper presents OLinear, a linear-based multivariate time series forecasting model that operates in an orthogonally transformed domain. Recent forecasting models typically adopt the temporal forecast (TF) paradigm, which directly encode and decode time series in the time domain. However, the entangled step-wise dependencies in series data can hinder the performance of TF. To address this, some forecasters conduct encoding and decoding in the transformed domain using fixed, dataset-independent bases (e.g., sine and cosine signals in the Fourier transform). In contrast, we utilize OrthoTrans, a data-adaptive transformation based on an orthogonal matrix that diagonalizes the series' temporal Pearson correlation matrix. This approach enables more effective encoding and decoding in the decorrelated feature domain and can serve as a plug-in module to enhance existing forecasters. To enhance the representation learning for multivariate time series, we introduce a customized linear layer, NormLin, which employs a normalized weight matrix to capture multivariate dependencies. Empirically, the NormLin module shows a surprising performance advantage over multi-head self-attention, while requiring nearly half the FLOPs. Extensive experiments on 24 benchmarks and 140 forecasting tasks demonstrate that OLinear consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Notably, as a plug-in replacement for self-attention, the NormLin module consistently enhances Transformer-based forecasters. The code and datasets are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/OLinear

  • 8 authors
·
May 12, 2025

FutureDepth: Learning to Predict the Future Improves Video Depth Estimation

In this paper, we propose a novel video depth estimation approach, FutureDepth, which enables the model to implicitly leverage multi-frame and motion cues to improve depth estimation by making it learn to predict the future at training. More specifically, we propose a future prediction network, F-Net, which takes the features of multiple consecutive frames and is trained to predict multi-frame features one time step ahead iteratively. In this way, F-Net learns the underlying motion and correspondence information, and we incorporate its features into the depth decoding process. Additionally, to enrich the learning of multiframe correspondence cues, we further leverage a reconstruction network, R-Net, which is trained via adaptively masked auto-encoding of multiframe feature volumes. At inference time, both F-Net and R-Net are used to produce queries to work with the depth decoder, as well as a final refinement network. Through extensive experiments on several benchmarks, i.e., NYUDv2, KITTI, DDAD, and Sintel, which cover indoor, driving, and open-domain scenarios, we show that FutureDepth significantly improves upon baseline models, outperforms existing video depth estimation methods, and sets new state-of-the-art (SOTA) accuracy. Furthermore, FutureDepth is more efficient than existing SOTA video depth estimation models and has similar latencies when comparing to monocular models

  • 9 authors
·
Mar 19, 2024

MetaMixer Is All You Need

Transformer, composed of self-attention and Feed-Forward Network, has revolutionized the landscape of network design across various vision tasks. FFN is a versatile operator seamlessly integrated into nearly all AI models to effectively harness rich representations. Recent works also show that FFN functions like key-value memories. Thus, akin to the query-key-value mechanism within self-attention, FFN can be viewed as a memory network, where the input serves as query and the two projection weights operate as keys and values, respectively. We hypothesize that the importance lies in query-key-value framework itself rather than in self-attention. To verify this, we propose converting self-attention into a more FFN-like efficient token mixer with only convolutions while retaining query-key-value framework, namely FFNification. Specifically, FFNification replaces query-key and attention coefficient-value interactions with large kernel convolutions and adopts GELU activation function instead of softmax. The derived token mixer, FFNified attention, serves as key-value memories for detecting locally distributed spatial patterns, and operates in the opposite dimension to the ConvNeXt block within each corresponding sub-operation of the query-key-value framework. Building upon the above two modules, we present a family of Fast-Forward Networks. Our FFNet achieves remarkable performance improvements over previous state-of-the-art methods across a wide range of tasks. The strong and general performance of our proposed method validates our hypothesis and leads us to introduce MetaMixer, a general mixer architecture that does not specify sub-operations within the query-key-value framework. We show that using only simple operations like convolution and GELU in the MetaMixer can achieve superior performance.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 4, 2024

Why Do Transformers Fail to Forecast Time Series In-Context?

Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging and largely unsolved problem in machine learning, despite significant recent efforts leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs), which predominantly rely on Transformer architectures. Empirical evidence consistently shows that even powerful Transformers often fail to outperform much simpler models, e.g., linear models, on TSF tasks; however, a rigorous theoretical understanding of this phenomenon remains limited. In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis of Transformers' limitations for TSF through the lens of In-Context Learning (ICL) theory. Specifically, under AR(p) data, we establish that: (1) Linear Self-Attention (LSA) models cannot achieve lower expected MSE than classical linear models for in-context forecasting; (2) as the context length approaches to infinity, LSA asymptotically recovers the optimal linear predictor; and (3) under Chain-of-Thought (CoT) style inference, predictions collapse to the mean exponentially. We empirically validate these findings through carefully designed experiments. Our theory not only sheds light on several previously underexplored phenomena but also offers practical insights for designing more effective forecasting architectures. We hope our work encourages the broader research community to revisit the fundamental theoretical limitations of TSF and to critically evaluate the direct application of increasingly sophisticated architectures without deeper scrutiny.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 10, 2025 2

FreSh: Frequency Shifting for Accelerated Neural Representation Learning

Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) have recently gained attention as a powerful approach for continuously representing signals such as images, videos, and 3D shapes using multilayer perceptrons (MLPs). However, MLPs are known to exhibit a low-frequency bias, limiting their ability to capture high-frequency details accurately. This limitation is typically addressed by incorporating high-frequency input embeddings or specialized activation layers. In this work, we demonstrate that these embeddings and activations are often configured with hyperparameters that perform well on average but are suboptimal for specific input signals under consideration, necessitating a costly grid search to identify optimal settings. Our key observation is that the initial frequency spectrum of an untrained model's output correlates strongly with the model's eventual performance on a given target signal. Leveraging this insight, we propose frequency shifting (or FreSh), a method that selects embedding hyperparameters to align the frequency spectrum of the model's initial output with that of the target signal. We show that this simple initialization technique improves performance across various neural representation methods and tasks, achieving results comparable to extensive hyperparameter sweeps but with only marginal computational overhead compared to training a single model with default hyperparameters.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 7, 2024

Unfolding AIS transmission behavior for vessel movement modeling on noisy data leveraging machine learning

The oceans are a source of an impressive mixture of complex data that could be used to uncover relationships yet to be discovered. Such data comes from the oceans and their surface, such as Automatic Identification System (AIS) messages used for tracking vessels' trajectories. AIS messages are transmitted over radio or satellite at ideally periodic time intervals but vary irregularly over time. As such, this paper aims to model the AIS message transmission behavior through neural networks for forecasting upcoming AIS messages' content from multiple vessels, particularly in a simultaneous approach despite messages' temporal irregularities as outliers. We present a set of experiments comprising multiple algorithms for forecasting tasks with horizon sizes of varying lengths. Deep learning models (e.g., neural networks) revealed themselves to adequately preserve vessels' spatial awareness regardless of temporal irregularity. We show how convolutional layers, feed-forward networks, and recurrent neural networks can improve such tasks by working together. Experimenting with short, medium, and large-sized sequences of messages, our model achieved 36/37/38% of the Relative Percentage Difference - the lower, the better, whereas we observed 92/45/96% on the Elman's RNN, 51/52/40% on the GRU, and 129/98/61% on the LSTM. These results support our model as a driver for improving the prediction of vessel routes when analyzing multiple vessels of diverging types simultaneously under temporally noise data.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 24, 2022

Training the Untrainable: Introducing Inductive Bias via Representational Alignment

We demonstrate that architectures which traditionally are considered to be ill-suited for a task can be trained using inductive biases from another architecture. Networks are considered untrainable when they overfit, underfit, or converge to poor results even when tuning their hyperparameters. For example, plain fully connected networks overfit on object recognition while deep convolutional networks without residual connections underfit. The traditional answer is to change the architecture to impose some inductive bias, although what that bias is remains unknown. We introduce guidance, where a guide network guides a target network using a neural distance function. The target is optimized to perform well and to match its internal representations, layer-by-layer, to those of the guide; the guide is unchanged. If the guide is trained, this transfers over part of the architectural prior and knowledge of the guide to the target. If the guide is untrained, this transfers over only part of the architectural prior of the guide. In this manner, we can investigate what kinds of priors different architectures place on untrainable networks such as fully connected networks. We demonstrate that this method overcomes the immediate overfitting of fully connected networks on vision tasks, makes plain CNNs competitive to ResNets, closes much of the gap between plain vanilla RNNs and Transformers, and can even help Transformers learn tasks which RNNs can perform more easily. We also discover evidence that better initializations of fully connected networks likely exist to avoid overfitting. Our method provides a mathematical tool to investigate priors and architectures, and in the long term, may demystify the dark art of architecture creation, even perhaps turning architectures into a continuous optimizable parameter of the network.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 25, 2024

Extracting Low-/High- Frequency Knowledge from Graph Neural Networks and Injecting it into MLPs: An Effective GNN-to-MLP Distillation Framework

Recent years have witnessed the great success of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) in handling graph-related tasks. However, MLPs remain the primary workhorse for practical industrial applications due to their desirable inference efficiency and scalability. To reduce their gaps, one can directly distill knowledge from a well-designed teacher GNN to a student MLP, which is termed as GNN-to-MLP distillation. However, the process of distillation usually entails a loss of information, and ``which knowledge patterns of GNNs are more likely to be left and distilled into MLPs?" becomes an important question. In this paper, we first factorize the knowledge learned by GNNs into low- and high-frequency components in the spectral domain and then derive their correspondence in the spatial domain. Furthermore, we identified a potential information drowning problem for existing GNN-to-MLP distillation, i.e., the high-frequency knowledge of the pre-trained GNNs may be overwhelmed by the low-frequency knowledge during distillation; we have described in detail what it represents, how it arises, what impact it has, and how to deal with it. In this paper, we propose an efficient Full-Frequency GNN-to-MLP (FF-G2M) distillation framework, which extracts both low-frequency and high-frequency knowledge from GNNs and injects it into MLPs. Extensive experiments show that FF-G2M improves over the vanilla MLPs by 12.6% and outperforms its corresponding teacher GNNs by 2.6% averaged over six graph datasets and three common GNN architectures.

  • 5 authors
·
May 18, 2023

Pre-training on Synthetic Driving Data for Trajectory Prediction

Accumulating substantial volumes of real-world driving data proves pivotal in the realm of trajectory forecasting for autonomous driving. Given the heavy reliance of current trajectory forecasting models on data-driven methodologies, we aim to tackle the challenge of learning general trajectory forecasting representations under limited data availability. We propose a pipeline-level solution to mitigate the issue of data scarcity in trajectory forecasting. The solution is composed of two parts: firstly, we adopt HD map augmentation and trajectory synthesis for generating driving data, and then we learn representations by pre-training on them. Specifically, we apply vector transformations to reshape the maps, and then employ a rule-based model to generate trajectories on both original and augmented scenes; thus enlarging the driving data without collecting additional real ones. To foster the learning of general representations within this augmented dataset, we comprehensively explore the different pre-training strategies, including extending the concept of a Masked AutoEncoder (MAE) for trajectory forecasting. Without bells and whistles, our proposed pipeline-level solution is general, simple, yet effective: we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of our data expansion and pre-training strategies, which outperform the baseline prediction model by large margins, e.g. 5.04%, 3.84% and 8.30% in terms of MR_6, minADE_6 and minFDE_6. The pre-training dataset and the codes for pre-training and fine-tuning are released at https://github.com/yhli123/Pretraining_on_Synthetic_Driving_Data_for_Trajectory_Prediction.

  • 8 authors
·
Sep 18, 2023

Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks: A Critical Assessment of Claims, Performance, and Practical Viability

Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) have gained significant attention as an alternative to traditional multilayer perceptrons, with proponents claiming superior interpretability and performance through learnable univariate activation functions. However, recent systematic evaluations reveal substantial discrepancies between theoretical claims and empirical evidence. This critical assessment examines KANs' actual performance across diverse domains using fair comparison methodologies that control for parameters and computational costs. Our analysis demonstrates that KANs outperform MLPs only in symbolic regression tasks, while consistently underperforming in machine learning, computer vision, and natural language processing benchmarks. The claimed advantages largely stem from B-spline activation functions rather than architectural innovations, and computational overhead (1.36-100x slower) severely limits practical deployment. Furthermore, theoretical claims about breaking the "curse of dimensionality" lack rigorous mathematical foundation. We systematically identify the conditions under which KANs provide value versus traditional approaches, establish evaluation standards for future research, and propose a priority-based roadmap for addressing fundamental limitations. This work provides researchers and practitioners with evidence-based guidance for the rational adoption of KANs while highlighting critical research gaps that must be addressed for broader applicability.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 13, 2024

Directional Message Passing for Molecular Graphs

Graph neural networks have recently achieved great successes in predicting quantum mechanical properties of molecules. These models represent a molecule as a graph using only the distance between atoms (nodes). They do not, however, consider the spatial direction from one atom to another, despite directional information playing a central role in empirical potentials for molecules, e.g. in angular potentials. To alleviate this limitation we propose directional message passing, in which we embed the messages passed between atoms instead of the atoms themselves. Each message is associated with a direction in coordinate space. These directional message embeddings are rotationally equivariant since the associated directions rotate with the molecule. We propose a message passing scheme analogous to belief propagation, which uses the directional information by transforming messages based on the angle between them. Additionally, we use spherical Bessel functions and spherical harmonics to construct theoretically well-founded, orthogonal representations that achieve better performance than the currently prevalent Gaussian radial basis representations while using fewer than 1/4 of the parameters. We leverage these innovations to construct the directional message passing neural network (DimeNet). DimeNet outperforms previous GNNs on average by 76% on MD17 and by 31% on QM9. Our implementation is available online.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 6, 2020

Graph-based Multi-ODE Neural Networks for Spatio-Temporal Traffic Forecasting

There is a recent surge in the development of spatio-temporal forecasting models in the transportation domain. Long-range traffic forecasting, however, remains a challenging task due to the intricate and extensive spatio-temporal correlations observed in traffic networks. Current works primarily rely on road networks with graph structures and learn representations using graph neural networks (GNNs), but this approach suffers from over-smoothing problem in deep architectures. To tackle this problem, recent methods introduced the combination of GNNs with residual connections or neural ordinary differential equations (ODE). However, current graph ODE models face two key limitations in feature extraction: (1) they lean towards global temporal patterns, overlooking local patterns that are important for unexpected events; and (2) they lack dynamic semantic edges in their architectural design. In this paper, we propose a novel architecture called Graph-based Multi-ODE Neural Networks (GRAM-ODE) which is designed with multiple connective ODE-GNN modules to learn better representations by capturing different views of complex local and global dynamic spatio-temporal dependencies. We also add some techniques like shared weights and divergence constraints into the intermediate layers of distinct ODE-GNN modules to further improve their communication towards the forecasting task. Our extensive set of experiments conducted on six real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of GRAM-ODE compared with state-of-the-art baselines as well as the contribution of different components to the overall performance. The code is available at https://github.com/zbliu98/GRAM-ODE

  • 3 authors
·
May 29, 2023

MoHETS: Long-term Time Series Forecasting with Mixture-of-Heterogeneous-Experts

Real-world multivariate time series can exhibit intricate multi-scale structures, including global trends, local periodicities, and non-stationary regimes, which makes long-horizon forecasting challenging. Although sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) approaches improve scalability and specialization, they typically rely on homogeneous MLP experts that poorly capture the diverse temporal dynamics of time series data. We address these limitations with MoHETS, an encoder-only Transformer that integrates sparse Mixture-of-Heterogeneous-Experts (MoHE) layers. MoHE routes temporal patches to a small subset of expert networks, combining a shared depthwise-convolution expert for sequence-level continuity with routed Fourier-based experts for patch-level periodic structures. MoHETS further improves robustness to non-stationary dynamics by incorporating exogenous information via cross-attention over covariate patch embeddings. Finally, we replace parameter-heavy linear projection heads with a lightweight convolutional patch decoder, improving parameter efficiency, reducing training instability, and allowing a single model to generalize across arbitrary forecast horizons. We validate across seven multivariate benchmarks and multiple horizons, with MoHETS consistently achieving state-of-the-art performance, reducing the average MSE by 12% compared to strong recent baselines, demonstrating effective heterogeneous specialization for long-term forecasting.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 29 1

Towards Robust and Adaptive Motion Forecasting: A Causal Representation Perspective

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 29, 2021

Activation Space Selectable Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

The multilayer perceptron (MLP), a fundamental paradigm in current artificial intelligence, is widely applied in fields such as computer vision and natural language processing. However, the recently proposed Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN), based on nonlinear additive connections, has been proven to achieve performance comparable to MLPs with significantly fewer parameters. Despite this potential, the use of a single activation function space results in reduced performance of KAN and related works across different tasks. To address this issue, we propose an activation space Selectable KAN (S-KAN). S-KAN employs an adaptive strategy to choose the possible activation mode for data at each feedforward KAN node. Our approach outperforms baseline methods in seven representative function fitting tasks and significantly surpasses MLP methods with the same level of parameters. Furthermore, we extend the structure of S-KAN and propose an activation space selectable Convolutional KAN (S-ConvKAN), which achieves leading results on four general image classification datasets. Our method mitigates the performance variability of the original KAN across different tasks and demonstrates through extensive experiments that feedforward KANs with selectable activations can achieve or even exceed the performance of MLP-based methods. This work contributes to the understanding of the data-centric design of new AI paradigms and provides a foundational reference for innovations in KAN-based network architectures.

  • 5 authors
·
Aug 15, 2024

DeltaProduct: Improving State-Tracking in Linear RNNs via Householder Products

Linear Recurrent Neural Networks (linear RNNs) have emerged as competitive alternatives to Transformers for sequence modeling, offering efficient training and linear-time inference. However, existing architectures face a fundamental trade-off between expressivity and efficiency, dictated by the structure of their state-transition matrices. Diagonal matrices, used in models such as Mamba, GLA, or mLSTM, yield fast runtime but have limited expressivity. To address this, recent architectures such as DeltaNet and RWKV-7 adopted a diagonal plus rank-1 structure, which allows simultaneous token and channel mixing, improving associative recall and, as recently shown, state-tracking when allowing negative eigenvalues in the state-transition matrices. Building on the interpretation of DeltaNet's recurrence as performing one step of online gradient descent per token on an associative recall loss, we introduce DeltaProduct, which instead takes multiple (n_h) steps per token. This naturally leads to diagonal plus rank-n_h state-transition matrices, formed as products of n_h generalized Householder transformations, providing a tunable mechanism to balance expressivity and efficiency. We provide a detailed theoretical characterization of the state-tracking capability of DeltaProduct in finite precision, showing how it improves by increasing n_h. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that DeltaProduct outperforms DeltaNet in both state-tracking and language modeling, while also showing significantly improved length extrapolation capabilities.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 14, 2025

TS-RAG: Retrieval-Augmented Generation based Time Series Foundation Models are Stronger Zero-Shot Forecaster

Large Language Models (LLMs) and Foundation Models (FMs) have recently become prevalent for time series forecasting tasks. While fine-tuning LLMs enables domain adaptation, they often struggle to generalize across diverse and unseen datasets. Moreover, existing Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) still face challenges in handling non-stationary dynamics and distribution shifts, largely due to the lack of effective mechanisms for adaptation. To this end, we present TS-RAG, a retrieval-augmented generation framework for time series forecasting that enhances the generalization and interpretability of TSFMs. Specifically, TS-RAG leverages pre-trained time series encoders to retrieve semantically relevant segments from a dedicated knowledge base, enriching the contextual representation of the input query. Furthermore, we propose an Adaptive Retrieval Mixer (ARM) module that dynamically fuses the retrieved patterns with the TSFM's internal representation, improving forecasting accuracy without requiring task-specific fine-tuning. Thorough empirical studies on seven public benchmark datasets demonstrate that TS-RAG achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot forecasting performance, outperforming the existing TSFMs by up to 6.84% across diverse domains while also providing desirable interpretability. Our code and data are available at: https://github.com/UConn-DSIS/TS-RAG

  • 10 authors
·
Mar 6, 2025

MIMO Is All You Need : A Strong Multi-In-Multi-Out Baseline for Video Prediction

The mainstream of the existing approaches for video prediction builds up their models based on a Single-In-Single-Out (SISO) architecture, which takes the current frame as input to predict the next frame in a recursive manner. This way often leads to severe performance degradation when they try to extrapolate a longer period of future, thus limiting the practical use of the prediction model. Alternatively, a Multi-In-Multi-Out (MIMO) architecture that outputs all the future frames at one shot naturally breaks the recursive manner and therefore prevents error accumulation. However, only a few MIMO models for video prediction are proposed and they only achieve inferior performance due to the date. The real strength of the MIMO model in this area is not well noticed and is largely under-explored. Motivated by that, we conduct a comprehensive investigation in this paper to thoroughly exploit how far a simple MIMO architecture can go. Surprisingly, our empirical studies reveal that a simple MIMO model can outperform the state-of-the-art work with a large margin much more than expected, especially in dealing with longterm error accumulation. After exploring a number of ways and designs, we propose a new MIMO architecture based on extending the pure Transformer with local spatio-temporal blocks and a new multi-output decoder, namely MIMO-VP, to establish a new standard in video prediction. We evaluate our model in four highly competitive benchmarks (Moving MNIST, Human3.6M, Weather, KITTI). Extensive experiments show that our model wins 1st place on all the benchmarks with remarkable performance gains and surpasses the best SISO model in all aspects including efficiency, quantity, and quality. We believe our model can serve as a new baseline to facilitate the future research of video prediction tasks. The code will be released.

  • 8 authors
·
Dec 8, 2022

Context-aware Rotary Position Embedding

Positional encoding is a vital component of Transformer architectures, enabling models to incorporate sequence order into self-attention mechanisms. Rotary Positional Embeddings (RoPE) have become a widely adopted solution due to their compatibility with relative position encoding and computational efficiency. However, RoPE relies on static, input-independent sinusoidal frequency patterns, limiting its ability to model context-sensitive relationships. In this work, we propose CARoPE (Context-Aware Rotary Positional Embedding), a novel generalization of RoPE that dynamically generates head-specific frequency patterns conditioned on token embeddings. This design introduces token- and context-sensitive positional representations while preserving RoPE efficiency and architectural simplicity. CARoPE computes input-dependent phase shifts using a bounded transformation of token embeddings and integrates them into the rotary mechanism across attention heads. We evaluate CARoPE on the FineWeb-Edu-10B dataset using GPT-2 variants trained on next-token prediction tasks. Experimental results show that CARoPE consistently outperforms RoPE and other common positional encoding baselines, achieving significantly lower perplexity, even at longer context lengths. Additionally, CARoPE enables faster training throughput without sacrificing model stability. These findings demonstrate that CARoPE offers a scalable, expressive, and efficient upgrade to existing positional encoding strategies in Transformer models.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 30, 2025

Magnitude Invariant Parametrizations Improve Hypernetwork Learning

Hypernetworks, neural networks that predict the parameters of another neural network, are powerful models that have been successfully used in diverse applications from image generation to multi-task learning. Unfortunately, existing hypernetworks are often challenging to train. Training typically converges far more slowly than for non-hypernetwork models, and the rate of convergence can be very sensitive to hyperparameter choices. In this work, we identify a fundamental and previously unidentified problem that contributes to the challenge of training hypernetworks: a magnitude proportionality between the inputs and outputs of the hypernetwork. We demonstrate both analytically and empirically that this can lead to unstable optimization, thereby slowing down convergence, and sometimes even preventing any learning. We present a simple solution to this problem using a revised hypernetwork formulation that we call Magnitude Invariant Parametrizations (MIP). We demonstrate the proposed solution on several hypernetwork tasks, where it consistently stabilizes training and achieves faster convergence. Furthermore, we perform a comprehensive ablation study including choices of activation function, normalization strategies, input dimensionality, and hypernetwork architecture; and find that MIP improves training in all scenarios. We provide easy-to-use code that can turn existing networks into MIP-based hypernetworks.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 15, 2023

OpenSTL: A Comprehensive Benchmark of Spatio-Temporal Predictive Learning

Spatio-temporal predictive learning is a learning paradigm that enables models to learn spatial and temporal patterns by predicting future frames from given past frames in an unsupervised manner. Despite remarkable progress in recent years, a lack of systematic understanding persists due to the diverse settings, complex implementation, and difficult reproducibility. Without standardization, comparisons can be unfair and insights inconclusive. To address this dilemma, we propose OpenSTL, a comprehensive benchmark for spatio-temporal predictive learning that categorizes prevalent approaches into recurrent-based and recurrent-free models. OpenSTL provides a modular and extensible framework implementing various state-of-the-art methods. We conduct standard evaluations on datasets across various domains, including synthetic moving object trajectory, human motion, driving scenes, traffic flow and weather forecasting. Based on our observations, we provide a detailed analysis of how model architecture and dataset properties affect spatio-temporal predictive learning performance. Surprisingly, we find that recurrent-free models achieve a good balance between efficiency and performance than recurrent models. Thus, we further extend the common MetaFormers to boost recurrent-free spatial-temporal predictive learning. We open-source the code and models at https://github.com/chengtan9907/OpenSTL.

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 19, 2023

Activity-aware Human Mobility Prediction with Hierarchical Graph Attention Recurrent Network

Human mobility prediction is a fundamental task essential for various applications in urban planning, location-based services and intelligent transportation systems. Existing methods often ignore activity information crucial for reasoning human preferences and routines, or adopt a simplified representation of the dependencies between time, activities and locations. To address these issues, we present Hierarchical Graph Attention Recurrent Network (HGARN) for human mobility prediction. Specifically, we construct a hierarchical graph based on past mobility records and employ a Hierarchical Graph Attention Module to capture complex time-activity-location dependencies. This way, HGARN can learn representations with rich human travel semantics to model user preferences at the global level. We also propose a model-agnostic history-enhanced confidence (MAHEC) label to incorporate each user's individual-level preferences. Finally, we introduce a Temporal Module, which employs recurrent structures to jointly predict users' next activities and their associated locations, with the former used as an auxiliary task to enhance the latter prediction. For model evaluation, we test the performance of HGARN against existing state-of-the-art methods in both the recurring (i.e., returning to a previously visited location) and explorative (i.e., visiting a new location) settings. Overall, HGARN outperforms other baselines significantly in all settings based on two real-world human mobility data benchmarks. These findings confirm the important role that human activities play in determining mobility decisions, illustrating the need to develop activity-aware intelligent transportation systems. Source codes of this study are available at https://github.com/YihongT/HGARN.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 14, 2022