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shchuro commited on
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169601b
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1 Parent(s): d4397a6

Update results per group

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  1. pages/fev_bench.py +11 -11
  2. src/task_groups.py +91 -60
  3. tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv +15 -15
  4. tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv +15 -15
  5. tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +15 -15
  6. tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv +15 -15
  7. tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv +215 -215
  8. tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv +214 -214
  9. tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv +215 -215
  10. tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv +215 -215
  11. tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv +15 -15
  12. tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv +15 -15
  13. tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +15 -15
  14. tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv +15 -15
  15. tables/domain_econ/pairwise_MASE.csv +215 -215
  16. tables/domain_econ/pairwise_SQL.csv +214 -214
  17. tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv +215 -215
  18. tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WQL.csv +215 -215
  19. tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv +15 -15
  20. tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv +15 -15
  21. tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +15 -15
  22. tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv +15 -15
  23. tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv +214 -214
  24. tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv +214 -214
  25. tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv +214 -214
  26. tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv +216 -216
  27. tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv +15 -15
  28. tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv +15 -15
  29. tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +15 -15
  30. tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv +15 -15
  31. tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv +214 -214
  32. tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv +214 -214
  33. tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv +216 -216
  34. tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv +215 -215
  35. tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv +15 -15
  36. tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv +15 -15
  37. tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +15 -15
  38. tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv +15 -15
  39. tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv +213 -213
  40. tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv +214 -214
  41. tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv +214 -214
  42. tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv +213 -213
  43. tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv +15 -15
  44. tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv +15 -15
  45. tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +15 -15
  46. tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv +15 -15
  47. tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv +212 -212
  48. tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv +210 -210
  49. tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv +211 -211
  50. tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv +210 -210
pages/fev_bench.py CHANGED
@@ -38,14 +38,14 @@ SORT_COL = "win_rate"
38
  AVAILABLE_METRICS = ["SQL", "MASE", "WQL", "WAPE"]
39
 
40
  # Group type options
41
- GROUP_TYPES = ["Full benchmark", "fev-bench-mini", "By frequency", "By domain"]
42
  FREQUENCY_OPTIONS = list(FREQUENCY_GROUPS.keys())
43
  DOMAIN_OPTIONS = list(DOMAIN_GROUPS.keys())
44
 
45
  # Mapping from UI selections to table directory names
46
  GROUP_DIR_MAPPING = {
47
- "Full benchmark": "full",
48
- "fev-bench-mini": "mini",
49
  "Sub-hourly": "frequency_sub_hourly",
50
  "Hourly": "frequency_hourly",
51
  "Daily": "frequency_daily",
@@ -80,13 +80,8 @@ def get_pivot_table(metric_name: str) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, pd.DataFrame, pd.Da
80
 
81
 
82
  with st.sidebar:
83
- selected_metric = st.selectbox("Evaluation Metric", options=AVAILABLE_METRICS, format_func=format_metric_name)
84
- st.caption(get_metric_description(selected_metric))
85
-
86
- st.divider()
87
-
88
  # Task group selection
89
- selected_group_type = st.selectbox("Task Group", options=GROUP_TYPES)
90
 
91
  # Conditional sub-selection for frequency/domain
92
  selected_subgroup = None
@@ -96,9 +91,9 @@ with st.sidebar:
96
  selected_subgroup = st.selectbox("Domain", options=DOMAIN_OPTIONS)
97
 
98
  # Determine the directory to load tables from
99
- if selected_group_type in ["Full benchmark", "fev-bench-mini"]:
100
  group_dir = GROUP_DIR_MAPPING[selected_group_type]
101
- task_list = ALL_TASKS if selected_group_type == "Full benchmark" else MINI_TASKS
102
  else:
103
  group_dir = GROUP_DIR_MAPPING[selected_subgroup]
104
  if selected_group_type == "By frequency":
@@ -108,6 +103,11 @@ with st.sidebar:
108
 
109
  st.caption(f"{len(task_list)} tasks")
110
 
 
 
 
 
 
111
  cols = st.columns(spec=[0.025, 0.95, 0.025])
112
 
113
  with cols[1] as main_container:
 
38
  AVAILABLE_METRICS = ["SQL", "MASE", "WQL", "WAPE"]
39
 
40
  # Group type options
41
+ GROUP_TYPES = ["Full (100 tasks)", "Mini (20 tasks)", "By frequency", "By domain"]
42
  FREQUENCY_OPTIONS = list(FREQUENCY_GROUPS.keys())
43
  DOMAIN_OPTIONS = list(DOMAIN_GROUPS.keys())
44
 
45
  # Mapping from UI selections to table directory names
46
  GROUP_DIR_MAPPING = {
47
+ "Full (100 tasks)": "full",
48
+ "Mini (20 tasks)": "mini",
49
  "Sub-hourly": "frequency_sub_hourly",
50
  "Hourly": "frequency_hourly",
51
  "Daily": "frequency_daily",
 
80
 
81
 
82
  with st.sidebar:
 
 
 
 
 
83
  # Task group selection
84
+ selected_group_type = st.selectbox("Subset", options=GROUP_TYPES)
85
 
86
  # Conditional sub-selection for frequency/domain
87
  selected_subgroup = None
 
91
  selected_subgroup = st.selectbox("Domain", options=DOMAIN_OPTIONS)
92
 
93
  # Determine the directory to load tables from
94
+ if selected_group_type in ["Full (100 tasks)", "Mini (20 tasks)"]:
95
  group_dir = GROUP_DIR_MAPPING[selected_group_type]
96
+ task_list = ALL_TASKS if selected_group_type == "Full (100 tasks)" else MINI_TASKS
97
  else:
98
  group_dir = GROUP_DIR_MAPPING[selected_subgroup]
99
  if selected_group_type == "By frequency":
 
103
 
104
  st.caption(f"{len(task_list)} tasks")
105
 
106
+ st.divider()
107
+
108
+ selected_metric = st.selectbox("Evaluation Metric", options=AVAILABLE_METRICS, format_func=format_metric_name)
109
+ st.caption(get_metric_description(selected_metric))
110
+
111
  cols = st.columns(spec=[0.025, 0.95, 0.025])
112
 
113
  with cols[1] as main_container:
src/task_groups.py CHANGED
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
1
  """Task groupings for filtering the leaderboard by subsets."""
2
 
3
- # All tasks in the benchmark
4
  ALL_TASKS = [
5
  "ETT_15T", "ETT_1D", "ETT_1H", "ETT_1W",
6
  "LOOP_SEATTLE_1D", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1H", "LOOP_SEATTLE_5T",
@@ -41,56 +41,88 @@ ALL_TASKS = [
41
  "world_co2_emissions", "world_life_expectancy", "world_tourism",
42
  ]
43
 
44
- # Mini benchmark - representative subset
45
  MINI_TASKS = [
46
- "ETT_1H", "ETT_1D",
47
- "LOOP_SEATTLE_1H",
48
- "entsoe_1H",
49
- "epf_de",
50
- "ercot_1D",
51
- "favorita_stores_1D",
52
- "hospital",
53
  "jena_weather_1H",
54
- "m5_1D",
 
 
 
55
  "rossmann_1D",
56
- "solar_1D",
57
- "walmart",
58
- "australian_tourism",
59
- "gvar",
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
60
  ]
61
 
62
  # Frequency-based groupings
63
  FREQUENCY_GROUPS = {
64
  "Sub-hourly": [
65
- "ETT_15T", "LOOP_SEATTLE_5T", "SZ_TAXI_15T", "bizitobs_l2c_5T",
66
- "entsoe_15T", "entsoe_30T", "jena_weather_10T", "kdd_cup_2022_10T",
67
- "kdd_cup_2022_30T", "redset_15T", "redset_5T", "solar_with_weather_15T",
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
68
  ],
69
  "Hourly": [
70
  "ETT_1H", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1H", "M_DENSE_1H", "SZ_TAXI_1H",
71
- "bizitobs_l2c_1H", "entsoe_1H", "ercot_1H", "jena_weather_1H",
 
 
 
72
  "redset_1H", "solar_with_weather_1H", "uci_air_quality_1H",
 
73
  ],
74
  "Daily": [
75
- "ETT_1D", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1D", "M_DENSE_1D", "ercot_1D",
76
- "favorita_stores_1D", "favorita_transactions_1D", "hierarchical_sales_1D",
77
- "hospital_admissions_1D", "jena_weather_1D", "kdd_cup_2022_1D",
78
- "m5_1D", "rohlik_orders_1D", "rohlik_sales_1D", "rossmann_1D",
79
- "solar_1D", "uci_air_quality_1D", "uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative",
80
- "uk_covid_nation_1D/new", "uk_covid_utla_1D/new",
 
 
 
81
  ],
82
  "Weekly": [
83
- "ETT_1W", "ercot_1W", "favorita_stores_1W", "favorita_transactions_1W",
84
- "hierarchical_sales_1W", "hospital_admissions_1W", "m5_1W",
85
- "rohlik_orders_1W", "rohlik_sales_1W", "rossmann_1W", "solar_1W",
86
- "uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative", "uk_covid_nation_1W/new",
87
- "uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative",
 
 
 
88
  ],
89
  "Monthly+": [
90
- "ercot_1M", "favorita_stores_1M", "favorita_transactions_1M", "m5_1M",
91
- "us_consumption_1M", "us_consumption_1Q", "us_consumption_1Y",
92
- "fred_md_2025/cee", "fred_md_2025/macro", "fred_qd_2025/cee", "fred_qd_2025/macro",
93
- "australian_tourism", "ecdc_ili", "gvar", "hospital", "restaurant",
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
94
  "world_co2_emissions", "world_life_expectancy", "world_tourism",
95
  ],
96
  }
@@ -106,48 +138,47 @@ DOMAIN_GROUPS = {
106
  "proenfo_gfc12", "proenfo_gfc14", "proenfo_gfc17",
107
  "solar_1D", "solar_1W", "solar_with_weather_15T", "solar_with_weather_1H",
108
  ],
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
109
  "Nature": [
110
  "jena_weather_10T", "jena_weather_1D", "jena_weather_1H",
111
  "uci_air_quality_1D", "uci_air_quality_1H",
112
- "world_co2_emissions", "world_life_expectancy",
113
  ],
114
  "Cloud": [
115
  "bizitobs_l2c_1H", "bizitobs_l2c_5T",
 
 
 
116
  "redset_15T", "redset_1H", "redset_5T",
117
- "M_DENSE_1D", "M_DENSE_1H",
118
- ],
119
- "Mobility": [
120
- "LOOP_SEATTLE_1D", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1H", "LOOP_SEATTLE_5T",
121
- "SZ_TAXI_15T", "SZ_TAXI_1H",
122
- "world_tourism",
123
- ],
124
- "Econ": [
125
- "fred_md_2025/cee", "fred_md_2025/macro",
126
- "fred_qd_2025/cee", "fred_qd_2025/macro",
127
- "us_consumption_1M", "us_consumption_1Q", "us_consumption_1Y",
128
- "gvar",
129
  ],
130
  "Health": [
131
- "hospital", "hospital_admissions_1D", "hospital_admissions_1W",
132
  "ecdc_ili",
 
133
  "uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative", "uk_covid_nation_1D/new",
134
  "uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative", "uk_covid_nation_1W/new",
135
  "uk_covid_utla_1D/new", "uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative",
136
  ],
137
- "Retail": [
138
  "australian_tourism",
139
- "favorita_stores_1D", "favorita_stores_1M", "favorita_stores_1W",
140
- "favorita_transactions_1D", "favorita_transactions_1M", "favorita_transactions_1W",
141
- "hierarchical_sales_1D", "hierarchical_sales_1W",
142
- "m5_1D", "m5_1M", "m5_1W",
143
- "restaurant",
144
- "rohlik_orders_1D", "rohlik_orders_1W", "rohlik_sales_1D", "rohlik_sales_1W",
145
- "rossmann_1D", "rossmann_1W",
146
- "walmart",
147
- "hermes",
148
- "boomlet_1062", "boomlet_1209", "boomlet_1225", "boomlet_1230", "boomlet_1282",
149
- "boomlet_1487", "boomlet_1631", "boomlet_1676", "boomlet_1855", "boomlet_1975",
150
- "boomlet_2187", "boomlet_285", "boomlet_619", "boomlet_772", "boomlet_963",
151
  ],
152
  }
153
 
 
1
  """Task groupings for filtering the leaderboard by subsets."""
2
 
3
+ # All tasks in the benchmark (100 tasks)
4
  ALL_TASKS = [
5
  "ETT_15T", "ETT_1D", "ETT_1H", "ETT_1W",
6
  "LOOP_SEATTLE_1D", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1H", "LOOP_SEATTLE_5T",
 
41
  "world_co2_emissions", "world_life_expectancy", "world_tourism",
42
  ]
43
 
44
+ # Mini benchmark - representative subset (20 tasks)
45
  MINI_TASKS = [
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
46
  "jena_weather_1H",
47
+ "M_DENSE_1D",
48
+ "bizitobs_l2c_5T",
49
+ "rohlik_orders_1D",
50
+ "boomlet_1282",
51
  "rossmann_1D",
52
+ "rossmann_1W",
53
+ "boomlet_1676",
54
+ "solar_with_weather_1H",
55
+ "boomlet_619",
56
+ "uci_air_quality_1H",
57
+ "uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative",
58
+ "us_consumption_1Y",
59
+ "epf_np",
60
+ "world_co2_emissions",
61
+ "ETT_15T",
62
+ "ETT_1H",
63
+ "proenfo_gfc14",
64
+ "hospital_admissions_1D",
65
+ "hospital_admissions_1W",
66
  ]
67
 
68
  # Frequency-based groupings
69
  FREQUENCY_GROUPS = {
70
  "Sub-hourly": [
71
+ # T (1 minute)
72
+ "boomlet_1225", "boomlet_1282", "boomlet_285", "boomlet_619", "boomlet_772", "boomlet_963",
73
+ # 5T (5 minutes)
74
+ "LOOP_SEATTLE_5T", "bizitobs_l2c_5T", "redset_5T",
75
+ "boomlet_1062", "boomlet_1209", "boomlet_1230", "boomlet_1487",
76
+ # 10T (10 minutes)
77
+ "jena_weather_10T", "kdd_cup_2022_10T",
78
+ # 15T (15 minutes)
79
+ "ETT_15T", "SZ_TAXI_15T", "entsoe_15T", "redset_15T", "solar_with_weather_15T",
80
+ # 30T (30 minutes)
81
+ "entsoe_30T", "kdd_cup_2022_30T", "boomlet_1631", "boomlet_1676",
82
  ],
83
  "Hourly": [
84
  "ETT_1H", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1H", "M_DENSE_1H", "SZ_TAXI_1H",
85
+ "bizitobs_l2c_1H", "entsoe_1H", "ercot_1H",
86
+ "epf_be", "epf_de", "epf_fr", "epf_np", "epf_pjm",
87
+ "jena_weather_1H",
88
+ "proenfo_gfc12", "proenfo_gfc14", "proenfo_gfc17",
89
  "redset_1H", "solar_with_weather_1H", "uci_air_quality_1H",
90
+ "boomlet_1855", "boomlet_1975", "boomlet_2187",
91
  ],
92
  "Daily": [
93
+ "ETT_1D", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1D", "M_DENSE_1D",
94
+ "ercot_1D", "kdd_cup_2022_1D", "solar_1D",
95
+ "favorita_stores_1D", "favorita_transactions_1D",
96
+ "hierarchical_sales_1D", "m5_1D",
97
+ "restaurant",
98
+ "rohlik_orders_1D", "rohlik_sales_1D", "rossmann_1D",
99
+ "jena_weather_1D", "uci_air_quality_1D",
100
+ "hospital_admissions_1D",
101
+ "uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative", "uk_covid_nation_1D/new", "uk_covid_utla_1D/new",
102
  ],
103
  "Weekly": [
104
+ "ETT_1W", "ercot_1W", "solar_1W",
105
+ "favorita_stores_1W", "favorita_transactions_1W",
106
+ "hierarchical_sales_1W", "m5_1W",
107
+ "hermes", "walmart",
108
+ "rohlik_orders_1W", "rohlik_sales_1W", "rossmann_1W",
109
+ "ecdc_ili",
110
+ "hospital_admissions_1W",
111
+ "uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative", "uk_covid_nation_1W/new", "uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative",
112
  ],
113
  "Monthly+": [
114
+ # Monthly
115
+ "ercot_1M",
116
+ "favorita_stores_1M", "favorita_transactions_1M", "m5_1M",
117
+ "fred_md_2025/cee", "fred_md_2025/macro",
118
+ "hospital",
119
+ "us_consumption_1M",
120
+ # Quarterly
121
+ "australian_tourism", "gvar",
122
+ "fred_qd_2025/cee", "fred_qd_2025/macro",
123
+ "us_consumption_1Q",
124
+ # Yearly
125
+ "us_consumption_1Y",
126
  "world_co2_emissions", "world_life_expectancy", "world_tourism",
127
  ],
128
  }
 
138
  "proenfo_gfc12", "proenfo_gfc14", "proenfo_gfc17",
139
  "solar_1D", "solar_1W", "solar_with_weather_15T", "solar_with_weather_1H",
140
  ],
141
+ "Retail": [
142
+ "favorita_stores_1D", "favorita_stores_1M", "favorita_stores_1W",
143
+ "favorita_transactions_1D", "favorita_transactions_1M", "favorita_transactions_1W",
144
+ "hermes",
145
+ "hierarchical_sales_1D", "hierarchical_sales_1W",
146
+ "m5_1D", "m5_1M", "m5_1W",
147
+ "restaurant",
148
+ "rohlik_orders_1D", "rohlik_orders_1W", "rohlik_sales_1D", "rohlik_sales_1W",
149
+ "rossmann_1D", "rossmann_1W",
150
+ "walmart",
151
+ ],
152
  "Nature": [
153
  "jena_weather_10T", "jena_weather_1D", "jena_weather_1H",
154
  "uci_air_quality_1D", "uci_air_quality_1H",
 
155
  ],
156
  "Cloud": [
157
  "bizitobs_l2c_1H", "bizitobs_l2c_5T",
158
+ "boomlet_1062", "boomlet_1209", "boomlet_1225", "boomlet_1230", "boomlet_1282",
159
+ "boomlet_1487", "boomlet_1631", "boomlet_1676", "boomlet_1855", "boomlet_1975",
160
+ "boomlet_2187", "boomlet_285", "boomlet_619", "boomlet_772", "boomlet_963",
161
  "redset_15T", "redset_1H", "redset_5T",
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
162
  ],
163
  "Health": [
 
164
  "ecdc_ili",
165
+ "hospital", "hospital_admissions_1D", "hospital_admissions_1W",
166
  "uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative", "uk_covid_nation_1D/new",
167
  "uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative", "uk_covid_nation_1W/new",
168
  "uk_covid_utla_1D/new", "uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative",
169
  ],
170
+ "Econ": [
171
  "australian_tourism",
172
+ "fred_md_2025/cee", "fred_md_2025/macro",
173
+ "fred_qd_2025/cee", "fred_qd_2025/macro",
174
+ "gvar",
175
+ "us_consumption_1M", "us_consumption_1Q", "us_consumption_1Y",
176
+ "world_co2_emissions", "world_life_expectancy", "world_tourism",
177
+ ],
178
+ "Mobility": [
179
+ "LOOP_SEATTLE_1D", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1H", "LOOP_SEATTLE_5T",
180
+ "M_DENSE_1D", "M_DENSE_1H",
181
+ "SZ_TAXI_15T", "SZ_TAXI_1H",
 
 
182
  ],
183
  }
184
 
tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Chronos-2,91.83673469387756,38.05245966764596,0.0,1.1918681776984126,0.0,0.0
3
- TimesFM-2.5,90.81632653061226,36.140871018314456,0.0,5.796362790254237,0.0,0.0
4
- TiRex,72.44897959183675,28.401200313055885,0.0,0.5035950857142858,0.0,0.0
5
- Toto-1.0,72.44897959183672,29.457840087014375,0.0,51.15623996325397,0.0,0.0
6
- TabPFN-TS,67.3469387755102,23.42201367210007,0.0,187.34055617133333,0.0,0.0
7
- Sundial-Base,65.3061224489796,28.041386853187323,0.0,7.982507160666666,0.0,0.0
8
- Moirai-2.0,63.26530612244898,27.355195223904172,0.0,1.205957883968254,0.5714285714285714,0.0
9
- Chronos-Bolt,48.9795918367347,15.519602291715417,0.0,0.5222312566666667,0.0,0.0
10
- Stat. Ensemble,40.306122448979586,1.8933676693514423,0.0,537.2896767779606,0.0,14.285714285714285
11
- AutoARIMA,33.163265306122454,-1.7785743452331637,0.0,413.94069237515214,0.0,14.285714285714285
12
- AutoETS,29.59183673469387,3.9948381437565517,0.0,7.19858586,0.0,28.57142857142857
13
- Seasonal Naive,28.57142857142857,0.0,0.0,0.6601822176666666,0.0,0.0
14
- AutoTheta,22.448979591836736,-12.949758939559475,0.0,4.9961080071428565,0.0,0.0
15
- Naive,19.387755102040813,-155.35963356905293,0.0,0.7404548423333334,0.0,0.0
16
- Drift,4.081632653061225,-174.3872081501419,0.0,0.7429390493333333,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Toto-1.0,91.42857142857143,41.8883400084654,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,89.64285714285714,42.5157996441094,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0
4
+ TimesFM-2.5,82.85714285714286,40.26605685743614,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0
5
+ TiRex,77.14285714285714,38.09940067233815,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0
6
+ Moirai-2.0,65.00000000000001,35.579899495667256,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0
7
+ Sundial-Base,61.07142857142858,34.44493255866505,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0
8
+ Chronos-Bolt,59.285714285714285,30.890375999745544,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0
9
+ TabPFN-TS,57.857142857142854,31.63477113942893,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0
10
+ Stat. Ensemble,33.75,10.28649321258931,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0
11
+ AutoARIMA,32.32142857142858,11.154754181413495,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0
12
+ AutoTheta,27.500000000000004,6.832233342669413,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0
13
+ AutoETS,24.107142857142858,9.00813293024486,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0
14
+ Naive,23.214285714285715,-25.50199780067157,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0
15
+ Seasonal Naive,15.892857142857144,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0
16
+ Drift,8.928571428571429,-32.85429096552939,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Chronos-2,93.87755102040816,49.490930346405136,0.0,1.1918681776984126,0.0,0.0
3
- TimesFM-2.5,88.77551020408163,47.50014141652608,0.0,5.796362790254237,0.0,0.0
4
- TiRex,75.51020408163265,41.22969676780125,0.0,0.5035950857142858,0.0,0.0
5
- Toto-1.0,73.46938775510203,41.85090900496293,0.0,51.15623996325397,0.0,0.0
6
- TabPFN-TS,70.40816326530611,40.949152552893196,0.0,187.34055617133333,0.0,0.0
7
- Moirai-2.0,64.28571428571426,38.16384284705047,0.0,1.205957883968254,0.5714285714285714,0.0
8
- Sundial-Base,62.244897959183675,38.72536792163377,0.0,7.982507160666666,0.0,0.0
9
- Chronos-Bolt,51.020408163265316,29.529054869503735,0.0,0.5222312566666667,0.0,0.0
10
- Stat. Ensemble,40.30612244897959,3.5776890137698247,0.0,537.2896767779606,0.0,14.285714285714285
11
- AutoARIMA,35.204081632653065,7.303665966467543,0.0,413.94069237515214,0.0,14.285714285714285
12
- AutoETS,26.530612244897956,-62.75686000684577,0.0,7.19858586,0.0,28.57142857142857
13
- Seasonal Naive,23.46938775510204,0.0,0.0,0.6601822176666666,0.0,0.0
14
- AutoTheta,19.387755102040813,-81.00666949062581,0.0,4.9961080071428565,0.0,0.0
15
- Naive,19.387755102040813,-229.40102452200532,0.0,0.7404548423333334,0.0,0.0
16
- Drift,6.122448979591836,-246.64002849728638,0.0,0.7429390493333333,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Toto-1.0,91.78571428571428,63.05871546601058,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,91.42857142857143,63.92789671191335,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0
4
+ TimesFM-2.5,83.57142857142857,61.98663044796851,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0
5
+ TiRex,80.35714285714285,60.87156591539495,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0
6
+ Moirai-2.0,68.21428571428572,58.41610987284718,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0
7
+ Sundial-Base,59.64285714285715,56.647735223836015,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0
8
+ Chronos-Bolt,58.57142857142858,54.85929055283013,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0
9
+ TabPFN-TS,57.50000000000001,53.05789136035014,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0
10
+ AutoARIMA,38.03571428571428,32.58752067086065,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0
11
+ Stat. Ensemble,34.82142857142856,20.1052436267542,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0
12
+ AutoETS,28.035714285714285,-26.853793211441058,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0
13
+ AutoTheta,22.142857142857146,-2.1145171067117996,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0
14
+ Seasonal Naive,19.107142857142854,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0
15
+ Naive,13.571428571428573,-102.14853969808834,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0
16
+ Drift,3.214285714285715,-110.2431874466197,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Chronos-2,98.9795918367347,56.03346299319774,0.0,1.1918681776984126,0.0,0.0
3
- TimesFM-2.5,81.63265306122449,48.21786745822298,0.0,5.796362790254237,0.0,0.0
4
- TabPFN-TS,81.63265306122447,48.7000590002878,0.0,187.34055617133333,0.0,0.0
5
- Moirai-2.0,71.42857142857142,43.82087074087539,0.0,1.205957883968254,0.5714285714285714,0.0
6
- Toto-1.0,68.36734693877553,41.61099035591892,0.0,51.15623996325397,0.0,0.0
7
- TiRex,66.32653061224491,43.211573262995806,0.0,0.5035950857142858,0.0,0.0
8
- Chronos-Bolt,63.26530612244898,41.3524784258674,0.0,0.5222312566666667,0.0,0.0
9
- Sundial-Base,63.26530612244898,44.73884694559522,0.0,7.982507160666666,0.0,0.0
10
- Stat. Ensemble,34.183673469387756,14.464019735134869,0.0,537.2896767779606,0.0,14.285714285714285
11
- AutoETS,28.57142857142857,-14.23026831192631,0.0,7.19858586,0.0,28.57142857142857
12
- AutoARIMA,26.02040816326531,5.087762742948254,0.0,413.94069237515214,0.0,14.285714285714285
13
- Naive,21.428571428571423,-20.643758684236204,0.0,0.7404548423333334,0.0,0.0
14
- Seasonal Naive,20.408163265306122,0.0,0.0,0.6601822176666666,0.0,0.0
15
- AutoTheta,18.36734693877551,3.978899086144194,0.0,4.9961080071428565,0.0,0.0
16
- Drift,6.1224489795918355,-31.5302295862653,0.0,0.7429390493333333,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Chronos-2,91.78571428571428,50.572763239812836,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0
3
+ Toto-1.0,91.07142857142858,47.121114882947566,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0
4
+ TimesFM-2.5,81.42857142857142,46.247719637805126,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0
5
+ TiRex,77.49999999999999,44.52063533547439,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0
6
+ Moirai-2.0,67.5,42.792548583451826,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0
7
+ TabPFN-TS,66.78571428571429,43.22422155533027,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0
8
+ Chronos-Bolt,60.71428571428571,39.893668788246494,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0
9
+ Sundial-Base,60.71428571428571,41.96635843416393,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0
10
+ Stat. Ensemble,32.32142857142857,15.58065226385924,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0
11
+ AutoARIMA,28.392857142857142,14.643401272886948,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0
12
+ AutoETS,23.75,5.6618608592632125,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0
13
+ AutoTheta,23.57142857142857,12.660865629460227,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0
14
+ Naive,23.21428571428571,4.49837332329478,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0
15
+ Seasonal Naive,12.321428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0
16
+ Drift,8.928571428571429,-1.7537851144645122,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Chronos-2,98.9795918367347,65.98215550494277,0.0,1.1918681776984126,0.0,0.0
3
- TimesFM-2.5,83.67346938775509,59.57802369715834,0.0,5.796362790254237,0.0,0.0
4
- TabPFN-TS,82.6530612244898,60.40100082559561,0.0,187.34055617133333,0.0,0.0
5
- TiRex,75.51020408163266,55.598937937465834,0.0,0.5035950857142858,0.0,0.0
6
- Moirai-2.0,70.40816326530611,55.32886174057864,0.0,1.205957883968254,0.5714285714285714,0.0
7
- Toto-1.0,66.32653061224491,54.42827487532307,0.0,51.15623996325397,0.0,0.0
8
- Chronos-Bolt,63.26530612244898,53.22642686457293,0.0,0.5222312566666667,0.0,0.0
9
- Sundial-Base,59.18367346938776,55.40077093761375,0.0,7.982507160666666,0.0,0.0
10
- Stat. Ensemble,34.183673469387756,10.25845553392335,0.0,537.2896767779606,0.0,14.285714285714285
11
- AutoARIMA,30.102040816326525,12.554876196379128,0.0,413.94069237515214,0.0,14.285714285714285
12
- Seasonal Naive,21.428571428571427,0.0,0.0,0.6601822176666666,0.0,0.0
13
- AutoTheta,19.387755102040813,-33.30969552158369,0.0,4.9961080071428565,0.0,0.0
14
- AutoETS,18.36734693877551,-109.16593122552642,0.0,7.19858586,0.0,28.57142857142857
15
- Naive,18.36734693877551,-89.49216169864154,0.0,0.7404548423333334,0.0,0.0
16
- Drift,8.16326530612245,-99.7014127864285,0.0,0.7429390493333333,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Chronos-2,92.5,66.94397676110452,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0
3
+ Toto-1.0,90.35714285714286,64.45690397421868,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0
4
+ TimesFM-2.5,82.14285714285712,63.753748722726,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0
5
+ TiRex,80.71428571428571,62.74382048051918,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0
6
+ Moirai-2.0,68.92857142857143,61.08750955081813,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0
7
+ TabPFN-TS,65.00000000000001,59.171399643395425,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0
8
+ Chronos-Bolt,60.357142857142854,58.158162956775406,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0
9
+ Sundial-Base,58.928571428571445,59.213728716592804,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0
10
+ AutoARIMA,36.25,33.35224855510223,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0
11
+ Stat. Ensemble,32.67857142857142,20.842955409190168,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0
12
+ AutoETS,24.82142857142857,-39.99504769759261,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0
13
+ AutoTheta,22.142857142857146,7.361982670066736,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0
14
+ Seasonal Naive,18.035714285714285,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0
15
+ Naive,13.214285714285715,-64.97889014234586,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0
16
+ Drift,3.9285714285714293,-71.7471743876533,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.03,-0.022,0.079
4
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.135,0.046,0.229
5
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.122,0.038,0.203
6
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.191,0.061,0.341
7
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.139,0.048,0.214
8
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.147,0.067,0.233
9
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.15,0.363
10
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.233,0.499
11
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.391,0.271,0.505
12
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.355,0.25,0.46
13
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.238,0.51
14
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.35,0.551
15
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.757,0.551,0.886
16
- Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.588,0.89
17
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.031,-0.085,0.022
18
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.108,0.049,0.176
20
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.095,0.034,0.149
21
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.166,0.024,0.347
22
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.113,-0.009,0.213
23
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.121,0.059,0.189
24
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.122,0.35
25
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.227,0.474
26
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.266,0.479
27
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.224,0.453
28
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.224,0.486
29
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.435,0.324,0.53
30
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.75,0.518,0.887
31
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.767,0.558,0.891
32
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.156,-0.297,-0.049
33
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.121,-0.213,-0.052
34
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.015,-0.072,0.045
36
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.065,-0.129,0.262
37
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.005,-0.2,0.132
38
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.014,-0.031,0.05
39
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.152,-0.001,0.287
40
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.27,0.12,0.406
41
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.176,0.414
42
- TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.254,0.108,0.403
43
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.155,0.42
44
- TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.366,0.233,0.475
45
- TiRex,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.72,0.431,0.876
46
- TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.739,0.489,0.882
47
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.139,-0.254,-0.04
48
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.105,-0.176,-0.035
49
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.015,-0.047,0.067
50
- Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.079,-0.086,0.285
52
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.02,-0.16,0.156
53
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.029,-0.053,0.092
54
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.165,-0.02,0.309
55
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.129,0.43
56
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.307,0.186,0.439
57
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.265,0.136,0.391
58
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.295,0.179,0.422
59
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.375,0.221,0.491
60
- Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.724,0.434,0.876
61
- Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.743,0.489,0.883
62
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.236,-0.517,-0.065
63
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.199,-0.53,-0.024
64
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.07,-0.356,0.114
65
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.086,-0.399,0.08
66
- TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.064,-0.24,0.078
68
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.054,-0.294,0.11
69
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.094,-0.113,0.281
70
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.219,-0.094,0.447
71
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.248,-0.066,0.455
72
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.202,-0.092,0.392
73
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.234,-0.09,0.436
74
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.322,0.125,0.49
75
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.7,0.48,0.83
76
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.721,0.526,0.84
77
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.162,-0.273,-0.05
78
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.127,-0.27,0.009
79
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.005,-0.152,0.166
80
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.02,-0.184,0.138
81
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.06,-0.084,0.194
82
- Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,0.009,-0.115,0.172
84
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.148,-0.01,0.289
85
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.267,0.09,0.417
86
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.293,0.117,0.433
87
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.25,0.076,0.398
88
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.28,0.066,0.452
89
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.257,0.47
90
- Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.718,0.504,0.857
91
- Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.738,0.546,0.864
92
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.173,-0.304,-0.072
93
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.138,-0.233,-0.063
94
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.015,-0.053,0.03
95
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.03,-0.101,0.05
96
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.051,-0.124,0.227
97
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,-0.01,-0.208,0.103
98
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.5,0.857,0.14,0.0,0.266
100
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.26,0.086,0.418
101
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.286,0.143,0.422
102
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.243,0.077,0.408
103
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.274,0.108,0.436
104
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.209,0.476
105
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.716,0.444,0.869
106
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.735,0.49,0.876
107
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.364,-0.571,-0.176
108
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.538,-0.138
109
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.18,-0.403,0.001
110
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.198,-0.448,0.02
111
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.103,-0.392,0.101
112
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.174,-0.407,0.01
113
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.143,0.5,-0.163,-0.362,0.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
114
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.139,-0.14,0.36
116
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.17,-0.089,0.376
117
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.12,-0.149,0.358
118
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.155,-0.161,0.412
119
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.252,0.033,0.435
120
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.669,0.403,0.834
121
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.692,0.463,0.841
122
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.584,-0.995,-0.304
123
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.536,-0.903,-0.294
124
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.37,-0.683,-0.137
125
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.391,-0.756,-0.148
126
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.281,-0.808,0.086
127
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.363,-0.714,-0.099
128
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.35,-0.719,-0.094
129
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.161,-0.563,0.122
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.643,0.286,0.929,0.036,-0.002,0.08
132
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.786,0.5,1.0,-0.022,-0.307,0.137
133
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.643,0.286,1.0,0.019,-0.25,0.205
134
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.131,0.062,0.216
135
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.616,0.223,0.838
136
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.642,0.294,0.848
137
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.643,-1.019,-0.372
138
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-0.92,-0.363
139
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.422,-0.707,-0.213
140
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.443,-0.781,-0.229
141
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.329,-0.835,0.062
142
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.414,-0.762,-0.132
143
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.401,-0.729,-0.167
144
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.205,-0.603,0.082
145
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.357,0.071,0.714,-0.037,-0.086,0.002
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.5,0.143,0.857,-0.06,-0.331,0.114
148
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.643,0.286,1.0,-0.018,-0.265,0.149
149
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.099,-0.004,0.2
150
- AutoARIMA,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.601,0.194,0.836
151
- AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.629,0.256,0.844
152
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.55,-0.852,-0.333
153
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.503,-0.828,-0.288
154
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.341,-0.675,-0.121
155
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.361,-0.642,-0.158
156
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.254,-0.646,0.084
157
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.334,-0.661,-0.082
158
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.322,-0.688,-0.083
159
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.136,-0.557,0.13
160
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,0.021,-0.159,0.235
161
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.143,0.857,0.057,-0.129,0.248
162
- AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.04,-0.118,0.167
164
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.15,-0.034,0.329
165
- AutoETS,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.624,0.235,0.842
166
- AutoETS,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.65,0.295,0.85
167
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.614,-1.041,-0.312
168
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.947,-0.288
169
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.397,-0.724,-0.183
170
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.418,-0.729,-0.218
171
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.306,-0.774,0.082
172
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.39,-0.824,-0.071
173
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.377,-0.774,-0.121
174
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.184,-0.7,0.139
175
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.357,0.0,0.714,-0.019,-0.258,0.2
176
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.357,0.0,0.714,0.017,-0.176,0.209
177
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.042,-0.2,0.106
178
- Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.115,-0.146,0.312
180
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.608,0.1,0.842
181
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.636,0.176,0.852
182
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.823,-1.225,-0.538
183
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.769,-1.127,-0.48
184
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.578,-0.905,-0.304
185
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.601,-0.964,-0.284
186
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.475,-0.96,-0.142
187
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-0.885,-0.346
188
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.907,-0.264
189
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.337,-0.769,-0.035
190
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.151,-0.275,-0.066
191
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.11,-0.25,0.004
192
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.176,-0.49,0.033
193
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.129,-0.453,0.128
194
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- AutoTheta,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.558,0.164,0.798
196
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.588,0.228,0.807
197
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.122,-7.783,-1.228
198
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.999,-7.824,-1.076
199
- Naive,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-2.567,-7.063,-0.758
200
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.62,-7.093,-0.765
201
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.335,-4.873,-0.923
202
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.549,-5.988,-1.015
203
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-2.515,-6.605,-0.798
204
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-2.023,-5.038,-0.675
205
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.603,-5.179,-0.287
206
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.509,-5.089,-0.241
207
- Naive,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.66,-5.31,-0.307
208
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.554,-5.327,-0.111
209
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.261,-3.954,-0.196
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.069,0.026,0.121
212
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.429,-8.131,-1.426
213
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.297,-8.213,-1.264
214
- Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.832,-7.478,-0.955
215
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.89,-7.513,-0.958
216
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.583,-5.236,-1.108
217
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.813,-6.342,-1.203
218
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.777,-7.089,-0.959
219
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.248,-5.291,-0.864
220
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.797,-5.563,-0.417
221
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.696,-5.426,-0.344
222
- Drift,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.858,-5.652,-0.418
223
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.744,-5.776,-0.214
224
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.429,-4.187,-0.296
225
- Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.075,-0.138,-0.027
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
+ Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.011,-0.063,0.027
4
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.027,-0.02,0.072
5
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.061,0.027,0.114
6
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.098,0.053,0.164
7
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.114,0.037,0.182
8
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.094,0.224
9
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.15,0.075,0.231
10
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.266,0.45
11
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.264,0.448
12
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.295,0.468
13
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.267,0.469
14
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.537,0.377,0.689
15
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.323,0.529
16
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.563,0.414,0.702
17
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.011,-0.028,0.059
18
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.038,0.009,0.071
20
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.071,0.022,0.128
21
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.168
22
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.123,0.07,0.182
23
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.101,0.231
24
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.092,0.234
25
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.272,0.454
26
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.266,0.453
27
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.296,0.47
28
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.281,0.468
29
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.386,0.689
30
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.425,0.331,0.534
31
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.567,0.421,0.704
32
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.028,-0.078,0.02
33
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.039,-0.077,-0.009
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.035,-0.0,0.077
36
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.073,0.035,0.115
37
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.089,0.041,0.137
38
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.136,0.068,0.199
39
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.126,0.059,0.207
40
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.334,0.261,0.415
41
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.254,0.415
42
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.283,0.436
43
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.268,0.433
44
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.524,0.366,0.676
45
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.318,0.501
46
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.402,0.69
47
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.065,-0.129,-0.028
48
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.077,-0.146,-0.022
49
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.036,-0.083,0.0
50
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.039,0.014,0.065
52
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.056,-0.026,0.115
53
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.104,0.038,0.166
54
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.095,0.018,0.172
55
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.31,0.233,0.392
56
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.231,0.382
57
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.263,0.412
58
+ TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.235,0.41
59
+ TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.507,0.342,0.658
60
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.295,0.476
61
+ TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.534,0.385,0.676
62
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.109,-0.196,-0.056
63
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.121,-0.202,-0.056
64
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.078,-0.13,-0.036
65
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.041,-0.07,-0.015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
66
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.017,-0.056,0.065
68
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.425,0.825,0.068,-0.002,0.135
69
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.058,-0.02,0.138
70
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.282,0.201,0.366
71
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.275,0.203,0.354
72
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.237,0.386
73
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.292,0.208,0.382
74
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.487,0.322,0.638
75
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.356,0.268,0.451
76
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.515,0.369,0.657
77
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.223,-0.038
78
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.14,-0.222,-0.075
79
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.097,-0.159,-0.043
80
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.059,-0.129,0.025
81
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.018,-0.069,0.053
82
+ Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.051,-0.023,0.126
84
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.041,-0.034,0.11
85
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.269,0.182,0.361
86
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.262,0.175,0.353
87
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.22,0.377
88
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.28,0.184,0.379
89
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.478,0.322,0.626
90
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.344,0.246,0.453
91
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.507,0.358,0.646
92
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.288,-0.104
93
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.3,-0.112
94
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.157,-0.248,-0.073
95
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.116,-0.198,-0.039
96
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.175,0.575,-0.073,-0.156,0.002
97
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.054,-0.144,0.022
98
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.011,-0.128,0.086
100
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.23,0.124,0.336
101
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.222,0.121,0.337
102
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.258,0.171,0.353
103
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.24,0.131,0.358
104
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.449,0.297,0.601
105
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.309,0.185,0.434
106
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.48,0.341,0.624
107
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.176,-0.301,-0.081
108
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.305,-0.102
109
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.144,-0.261,-0.063
110
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.104,-0.208,-0.019
111
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.061,-0.161,0.019
112
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.043,-0.123,0.033
113
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.011,-0.095,0.114
114
+ TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.238,0.095,0.36
116
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.231,0.096,0.351
117
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.266,0.154,0.375
118
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.249,0.114,0.367
119
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.455,0.285,0.6
120
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.316,0.178,0.443
121
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.485,0.326,0.621
122
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.544,-0.817,-0.362
123
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.561,-0.833,-0.374
124
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.502,-0.711,-0.353
125
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.449,-0.646,-0.304
126
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.393,-0.578,-0.251
127
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.369,-0.564,-0.223
128
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.298,-0.505,-0.141
129
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.312,-0.562,-0.106
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.475,0.274,0.675,-0.01,-0.058,0.025
132
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.037,-0.013,0.087
133
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.775,0.6,0.95,0.014,-0.091,0.087
134
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.285,0.06,0.51
135
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.775,0.624,0.925,0.103,-0.009,0.19
136
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.325,0.11,0.536
137
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.529,-0.811,-0.358
138
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.546,-0.83,-0.363
139
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.487,-0.708,-0.341
140
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.435,-0.619,-0.301
141
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.379,-0.548,-0.255
142
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.355,-0.545,-0.212
143
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.286,-0.508,-0.137
144
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.3,-0.541,-0.106
145
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.525,0.325,0.726,0.01,-0.026,0.055
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.046,-0.017,0.107
148
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.725,0.549,0.9,0.024,-0.086,0.103
149
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.292,0.063,0.513
150
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.825,0.675,0.95,0.112,0.008,0.197
151
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.331,0.115,0.536
152
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.603,-0.881,-0.419
153
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.887,-0.421
154
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.56,-0.774,-0.394
155
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.701,-0.356
156
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.446,-0.628,-0.31
157
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.606,-0.282
158
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.348,-0.546,-0.206
159
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.363,-0.6,-0.182
160
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.039,-0.096,0.013
161
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.049,-0.12,0.017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
162
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.024,-0.139,0.055
164
+ AutoTheta,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.258,0.05,0.468
165
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.068,-0.06,0.171
166
+ AutoTheta,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.299,0.104,0.491
167
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.883,-0.364
168
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.881,-0.391
169
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.523,-0.762,-0.366
170
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.47,-0.695,-0.307
171
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.412,-0.619,-0.262
172
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.388,-0.611,-0.225
173
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.317,-0.559,-0.151
174
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.331,-0.581,-0.129
175
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.225,0.05,0.4,-0.014,-0.096,0.083
176
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.275,0.1,0.451,-0.024,-0.115,0.079
177
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.023,-0.058,0.122
178
+ AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.275,0.032,0.5
180
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.09,0.026,0.154
181
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.315,0.081,0.528
182
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.16,-2.211,-0.604
183
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.183,-2.214,-0.628
184
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.101,-2.085,-0.578
185
+ Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.027,-1.923,-0.52
186
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.948,-1.762,-0.475
187
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.914,-1.673,-0.476
188
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.816,-1.505,-0.423
189
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.836,-1.501,-0.399
190
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.399,-1.041,-0.063
191
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.413,-1.052,-0.067
192
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.347,-0.881,-0.053
193
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.379,-1.0,-0.033
194
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.425,0.775,-0.255,-0.874,0.087
196
+ Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.031,0.085
197
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.721,-1.122,-0.477
198
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.74,-1.148,-0.496
199
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.674,-1.003,-0.466
200
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-0.909,-0.418
201
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.552,-0.822,-0.365
202
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.525,-0.83,-0.326
203
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.447,-0.766,-0.228
204
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.463,-0.796,-0.216
205
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.225,0.075,0.376,-0.115,-0.235,0.009
206
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.175,0.05,0.325,-0.126,-0.245,-0.008
207
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.073,-0.206,0.057
208
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.099,-0.181,-0.027
209
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.225,0.575,0.203,-0.096,0.466
210
+ Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.247,-0.04,0.497
212
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.286,-2.359,-0.705
213
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.311,-2.381,-0.728
214
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.224,-2.223,-0.673
215
+ Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.146,-2.086,-0.627
216
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.062,-1.913,-0.584
217
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.027,-1.828,-0.559
218
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.922,-1.659,-0.517
219
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.943,-1.639,-0.484
220
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.481,-1.157,-0.124
221
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.495,-1.156,-0.13
222
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.426,-0.966,-0.116
223
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.46,-1.12,-0.088
224
+ Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.059,-0.093,-0.032
225
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.329,-0.989,0.038
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.038,-0.013,0.083
4
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.141,0.045,0.25
5
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.131,0.049,0.216
6
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.145,0.064,0.222
7
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.183,0.08,0.301
8
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.176,0.087,0.25
9
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.283,0.156,0.383
10
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.476,0.357,0.605
11
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.362,0.547
12
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.689,0.409,0.903
13
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.495,0.41,0.577
14
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.721,0.554,0.828
15
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.847,0.671,0.926
16
- Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.854,0.688,0.929
17
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.039,-0.09,0.013
18
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.107,0.042,0.193
20
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.097,0.031,0.159
21
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.111,0.016,0.222
22
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.151,0.056,0.255
23
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.143,0.031,0.235
24
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.119,0.358
25
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.335,0.58
26
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.434,0.349,0.516
27
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.675,0.381,0.9
28
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.475,0.393,0.554
29
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.71,0.524,0.828
30
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.841,0.644,0.926
31
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.849,0.665,0.928
32
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.164,-0.333,-0.047
33
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.119,-0.239,-0.043
34
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.011,-0.07,0.045
36
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.005,-0.158,0.135
37
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.05,-0.011,0.106
38
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.041,-0.183,0.164
39
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.166,0.028,0.28
40
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.39,0.229,0.529
41
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.366,0.261,0.461
42
- TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.266,0.895
43
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.322,0.511
44
- TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.675,0.439,0.811
45
- TiRex,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.822,0.574,0.919
46
- TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.83,0.605,0.921
47
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.151,-0.275,-0.051
48
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.108,-0.189,-0.032
49
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.048,0.066
50
- Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.015,-0.11,0.148
52
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.06,-0.039,0.143
53
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.051,-0.127,0.174
54
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.175,-0.003,0.312
55
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.238,0.545
56
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.263,0.479
57
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.643,0.288,0.894
58
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.345,0.504
59
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.679,0.445,0.81
60
- Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.823,0.583,0.919
61
- Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.832,0.605,0.922
62
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.169,-0.286,-0.069
63
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.125,-0.285,-0.016
64
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.005,-0.156,0.137
65
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.016,-0.174,0.099
66
- TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.045,-0.07,0.18
68
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.036,-0.064,0.119
69
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.162,0.017,0.303
70
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.388,0.23,0.557
71
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.363,0.235,0.492
72
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.637,0.269,0.893
73
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.409,0.281,0.516
74
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.674,0.495,0.785
75
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.821,0.612,0.909
76
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.83,0.64,0.913
77
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.224,-0.431,-0.087
78
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.178,-0.342,-0.06
79
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.052,-0.118,0.011
80
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.063,-0.167,0.038
81
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.047,-0.219,0.065
82
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,-0.009,-0.25,0.122
84
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.5,0.857,0.123,0.0,0.24
85
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.359,0.173,0.523
86
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.333,0.203,0.452
87
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.62,0.193,0.892
88
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.254,0.508
89
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.658,0.412,0.793
90
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.812,0.556,0.911
91
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.822,0.59,0.914
92
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.213,-0.333,-0.095
93
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.167,-0.307,-0.032
94
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.043,-0.196,0.155
95
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.054,-0.211,0.113
96
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.038,-0.135,0.06
97
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,0.009,-0.139,0.2
98
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.13,-0.06,0.302
100
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.23,0.506
101
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.227,0.45
102
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.624,0.262,0.887
103
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.265,0.493
104
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.661,0.48,0.781
105
- Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.814,0.612,0.904
106
- Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.823,0.641,0.91
107
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.395,-0.62,-0.185
108
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.342,-0.559,-0.135
109
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.199,-0.389,-0.029
110
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.212,-0.453,0.003
111
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.193,-0.435,-0.017
112
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.143,0.5,-0.14,-0.316,0.0
113
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.15,-0.432,0.056
114
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.269,0.043,0.463
116
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.24,0.05,0.401
117
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.567,0.067,0.881
118
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.295,0.076,0.483
119
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.611,0.35,0.762
120
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.786,0.537,0.893
121
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.797,0.571,0.897
122
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.909,-1.534,-0.555
123
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.837,-1.378,-0.504
124
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.641,-1.125,-0.296
125
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.658,-1.196,-0.312
126
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.633,-1.256,-0.298
127
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.559,-1.098,-0.209
128
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.574,-1.026,-0.299
129
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.368,-0.862,-0.045
130
- Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.143,0.857,-0.04,-0.15,0.05
132
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.408,-0.284,0.823
133
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.036,-0.256,0.214
134
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.467,0.186,0.686
135
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.707,0.404,0.867
136
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.722,0.433,0.871
137
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.835,-1.206,-0.568
138
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.766,-1.068,-0.536
139
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.577,-0.855,-0.354
140
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-0.919,-0.356
141
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.57,-0.97,-0.308
142
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.499,-0.826,-0.255
143
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.513,-0.818,-0.293
144
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.315,-0.669,-0.052
145
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.143,0.857,0.039,-0.053,0.13
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.643,0.286,0.929,0.43,-0.147,0.827
148
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.073,-0.106,0.208
149
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.488,0.194,0.692
150
- AutoARIMA,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.719,0.393,0.871
151
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.733,0.428,0.875
152
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.219,-9.31,-0.693
153
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.074,-8.951,-0.617
154
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.767,-8.555,-0.363
155
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.799,-8.419,-0.405
156
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.756,-8.384,-0.369
157
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.632,-8.245,-0.239
158
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.656,-7.873,-0.356
159
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.31,-7.438,-0.072
160
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.688,-4.665,0.221
161
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.357,0.071,0.714,-0.756,-4.782,0.128
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
162
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.628,-4.036,0.139
164
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.101,-2.03,0.639
165
- AutoETS,Naive,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.506,-1.139,0.856
166
- AutoETS,Drift,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.53,-0.97,0.863
167
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.98,-1.367,-0.696
168
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.905,-1.245,-0.648
169
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.702,-1.046,-0.475
170
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.72,-1.016,-0.528
171
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.693,-1.067,-0.391
172
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-1.032,-0.341
173
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.632,-0.974,-0.36
174
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.419,-0.932,-0.082
175
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.037,-0.272,0.204
176
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.079,-0.263,0.096
177
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.386,-0.161,0.801
178
- Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.448,0.054,0.678
180
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.696,0.264,0.868
181
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.712,0.302,0.875
182
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.584,-4.814,-1.242
183
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.448,-4.81,-1.1
184
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.08,-4.283,-0.781
185
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.113,-4.254,-0.802
186
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.065,-3.645,-0.982
187
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.927,-3.826,-0.699
188
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.954,-3.565,-0.923
189
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.569,-3.209,-0.539
190
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.877,-2.184,-0.228
191
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.953,-2.242,-0.241
192
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.112,-1.773,0.67
193
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.81,-2.102,-0.057
194
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- AutoTheta,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.45,0.184,0.614
196
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.478,0.227,0.628
197
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.522,-12.534,-2.038
198
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.274,-12.423,-1.812
199
- Naive,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-4.605,-11.349,-1.348
200
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.665,-11.417,-1.395
201
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.578,-9.958,-1.578
202
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-4.327,-10.207,-1.251
203
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.376,-9.408,-1.578
204
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-3.674,-8.348,-1.161
205
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-2.416,-6.491,-0.679
206
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-2.554,-6.751,-0.649
207
- Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.857,-1.024,-5.956,0.533
208
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-2.294,-6.6,-0.359
209
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.82,-1.588,-0.226
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.05,0.02,0.089
212
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.863,-13.014,-2.205
213
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.603,-12.834,-1.982
214
- Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.898,-11.729,-1.534
215
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.961,-11.889,-1.529
216
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.87,-10.504,-1.78
217
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.606,-10.633,-1.441
218
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.657,-10.09,-1.786
219
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.919,-8.711,-1.333
220
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.595,-6.774,-0.764
221
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-2.74,-7.009,-0.748
222
- Drift,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.714,-1.13,-6.314,0.492
223
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-2.466,-6.978,-0.433
224
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.915,-1.691,-0.293
225
- Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.052,-0.098,-0.02
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
+ Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.024,-0.08,0.018
4
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.028,-0.024,0.076
5
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.056,0.022,0.104
6
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.112,0.064,0.169
7
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.148,0.071,0.211
8
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.182,0.124,0.236
9
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.213,0.131,0.291
10
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.369,0.537
11
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.448,0.619
12
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.666,0.482,0.815
13
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.638,0.54,0.72
14
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.631,0.521,0.73
15
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.817,0.735,0.877
16
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.824,0.744,0.882
17
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.024,-0.018,0.074
18
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.051,0.017,0.09
20
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.078,0.024,0.139
21
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.133,0.069,0.2
22
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.118,0.222
23
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.134,0.261
24
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.232,0.162,0.3
25
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.465,0.381,0.55
26
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.549,0.47,0.623
27
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.674,0.501,0.819
28
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.647,0.555,0.727
29
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.533,0.735
30
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.822,0.746,0.879
31
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.828,0.756,0.883
32
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.029,-0.082,0.024
33
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.054,-0.099,-0.017
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.028,-0.014,0.08
36
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.038,0.143
37
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.123,0.079,0.165
38
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.158,0.095,0.217
39
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.19,0.124,0.257
40
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.436,0.367,0.511
41
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.524,0.451,0.594
42
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.657,0.476,0.811
43
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.628,0.534,0.71
44
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.519,0.713
45
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.812,0.731,0.872
46
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.819,0.742,0.877
47
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.059,-0.116,-0.023
48
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.085,-0.162,-0.025
49
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.029,-0.086,0.013
50
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.059,0.03,0.09
52
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.097,0.013,0.151
53
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.073,0.186
54
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.166,0.079,0.247
55
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.343,0.497
56
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.425,0.585
57
+ TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.647,0.453,0.808
58
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.513,0.698
59
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.609,0.499,0.709
60
+ TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.806,0.72,0.869
61
+ TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.814,0.729,0.874
62
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.126,-0.203,-0.068
63
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.153,-0.249,-0.074
64
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.094,-0.167,-0.039
65
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.063,-0.099,-0.03
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
66
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.041,-0.045,0.091
68
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.079,0.017,0.14
69
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.114,0.03,0.194
70
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.305,0.459
71
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.48,0.391,0.559
72
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.628,0.423,0.798
73
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.593,0.49,0.673
74
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.469,0.689
75
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.794,0.704,0.859
76
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.802,0.716,0.864
77
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.174,-0.268,-0.077
78
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.285,-0.134
79
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.14,-0.198,-0.085
80
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.108,-0.178,-0.013
81
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.043,-0.1,0.043
82
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.04,-0.037,0.117
84
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.076,0.006,0.138
85
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.281,0.436
86
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.378,0.534
87
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.404,0.793
88
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.575,0.487,0.657
89
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.566,0.454,0.668
90
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.704,0.848
91
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.794,0.716,0.854
92
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.222,-0.31,-0.142
93
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.352,-0.155
94
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.187,-0.277,-0.105
95
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.229,-0.079
96
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.086,-0.162,-0.017
97
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.041,-0.133,0.036
98
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.851,0.038,-0.082,0.139
100
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.33,0.236,0.434
101
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.435,0.328,0.531
102
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.597,0.372,0.786
103
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.558,0.453,0.645
104
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.549,0.413,0.67
105
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.777,0.686,0.844
106
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.7,0.851
107
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.271,-0.41,-0.151
108
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.301,-0.429,-0.193
109
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.235,-0.346,-0.141
110
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.2,-0.328,-0.086
111
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.129,-0.24,-0.03
112
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.083,-0.161,-0.006
113
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.149,0.5,-0.04,-0.162,0.076
114
+ TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.304,0.205,0.404
116
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.412,0.312,0.505
117
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.586,0.354,0.779
118
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.54,0.433,0.639
119
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.531,0.407,0.643
120
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.681,0.835
121
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.777,0.696,0.841
122
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.825,-1.161,-0.584
123
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.869,-1.222,-0.615
124
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.773,-1.043,-0.58
125
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-0.989,-0.521
126
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.848,-0.438
127
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.773,-0.392
128
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.493,-0.768,-0.309
129
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.436,-0.677,-0.258
130
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.725,0.525,0.875,0.156,0.073,0.244
132
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.775,0.6,0.95,0.434,0.08,0.713
133
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.34,0.203,0.476
134
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.326,0.18,0.457
135
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.667,0.521,0.764
136
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.679,0.545,0.773
137
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.163,-1.625,-0.811
138
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.215,-1.654,-0.887
139
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.102,-1.466,-0.82
140
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.042,-1.411,-0.739
141
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.921,-1.267,-0.642
142
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.843,-1.145,-0.609
143
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.77,-1.134,-0.488
144
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.702,-1.019,-0.454
145
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.275,0.125,0.475,-0.185,-0.323,-0.078
146
+ Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.363,-0.063,0.684
148
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.218,0.089,0.375
149
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.201,-0.013,0.369
150
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.605,0.443,0.725
151
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.465,0.735
152
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.991,-4.394,-0.932
153
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.072,-4.534,-1.004
154
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.92,-4.291,-0.907
155
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.837,-4.196,-0.83
156
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.688,-3.95,-0.734
157
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.595,-3.825,-0.677
158
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.484,-3.678,-0.591
159
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-1.414,-3.528,-0.549
160
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.225,0.05,0.4,-0.767,-2.48,-0.087
161
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.569,-2.162,0.059
162
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.25,-1.708,0.289
164
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.875,-0.269,-1.702,0.285
165
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.34,-0.612,0.679
166
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.363,-0.555,0.692
167
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.764,-2.575,-1.173
168
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.831,-2.661,-1.245
169
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.686,-2.451,-1.145
170
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.61,-2.316,-1.054
171
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.456,-2.054,-0.962
172
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.355,-1.914,-0.951
173
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.262,-1.821,-0.828
174
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.175,-1.772,-0.765
175
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.515,-0.908,-0.255
176
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.278,-0.6,-0.097
177
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.2,-0.407,0.631
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
178
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.021,-0.413,0.245
180
+ AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.495,0.359,0.605
181
+ AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.514,0.382,0.62
182
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.707,-2.709,-1.086
183
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.772,-2.77,-1.139
184
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.631,-2.486,-1.077
185
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.556,-2.437,-0.997
186
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.405,-2.214,-0.883
187
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.307,-2.016,-0.832
188
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.215,-2.027,-0.704
189
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.13,-1.801,-0.687
190
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.483,-0.841,-0.219
191
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.252,-0.585,0.013
192
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.125,0.475,0.212,-0.398,0.63
193
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.021,-0.325,0.292
194
+ Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.7,0.525,0.85,0.505,0.274,0.671
196
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.524,0.302,0.688
197
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.472,-7.119,-2.772
198
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.604,-7.24,-2.94
199
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.318,-6.839,-2.721
200
+ Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-4.166,-6.661,-2.569
201
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-3.861,-6.072,-2.376
202
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.663,-5.597,-2.374
203
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-3.478,-5.427,-2.188
204
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.306,-5.057,-2.139
205
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.999,-3.24,-1.086
206
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.53,-2.642,-0.795
207
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.516,-2.117,0.38
208
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.98,-1.531,-0.56
209
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.15,0.475,-1.021,-2.041,-0.378
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.023,0.057
212
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.691,-7.48,-2.9
213
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.828,-7.54,-3.102
214
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.531,-7.137,-2.871
215
+ Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.373,-6.957,-2.696
216
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.056,-6.361,-2.518
217
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.85,-5.831,-2.522
218
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.658,-5.689,-2.332
219
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.479,-5.272,-2.287
220
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-2.119,-3.399,-1.198
221
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.632,-2.779,-0.87
222
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.569,-2.25,0.357
223
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.059,-1.634,-0.617
224
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.15,0.0,0.35,-1.102,-2.206,-0.433
225
+ Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.061,-0.024
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.143,0.073,0.258
4
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.151,0.044,0.279
5
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.079,0.395
6
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.105,0.4
7
- Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.226,0.074,0.415
8
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.25,0.114,0.416
9
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.204,0.15,0.253
10
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.486,0.352,0.613
11
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.409,0.773
12
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.537,0.385,0.676
13
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.636,0.563,0.714
14
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.56,0.364,0.726
15
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.424,0.654
16
- Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.666,0.598,0.736
17
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.167,-0.347,-0.079
18
- TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.009,-0.052,0.048
20
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.087,-0.001,0.19
21
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.121,0.026,0.223
22
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.097,-0.008,0.215
23
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.125,0.032,0.214
24
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.072,-0.049,0.162
25
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.278,0.551
26
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.31,0.74
27
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.46,0.317,0.624
28
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.575,0.464,0.682
29
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.311,0.666
30
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.362,0.592
31
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.61,0.53,0.699
32
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.178,-0.388,-0.046
33
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.009,-0.051,0.049
34
- TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.078,0.009,0.172
36
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.113,0.034,0.196
37
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.088,-0.004,0.199
38
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.117,0.05,0.198
39
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.063,-0.055,0.138
40
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.268,0.544
41
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.547,0.309,0.739
42
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.454,0.31,0.615
43
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.571,0.445,0.686
44
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.31,0.655
45
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.461,0.344,0.588
46
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.606,0.516,0.701
47
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.278,-0.654,-0.086
48
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.095,-0.234,0.001
49
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.085,-0.208,-0.009
50
- Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.038,-0.036,0.119
52
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.011,-0.014,0.036
53
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.5,0.857,0.042,0.0,0.081
54
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,-0.017,-0.27,0.116
55
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.18,0.52
56
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.508,0.216,0.728
57
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.408,0.247,0.593
58
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.534,0.353,0.67
59
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.276,0.628
60
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.283,0.564
61
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.573,0.448,0.687
62
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.328,-0.668,-0.117
63
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.138,-0.286,-0.026
64
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.128,-0.244,-0.036
65
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.039,-0.136,0.034
66
  Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.028,-0.117,0.054
68
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.004,-0.111,0.096
69
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.057,-0.279,0.086
70
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.317,0.171,0.463
71
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.222,0.72
72
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.238,0.552
73
- Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.355,0.644
74
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.269,0.58
75
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.277,0.509
76
- Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.451,0.663
77
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.292,-0.708,-0.08
78
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.107,-0.273,0.008
79
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.097,-0.248,0.004
80
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.011,-0.037,0.014
81
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.027,-0.057,0.105
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
82
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.032,-0.024,0.081
84
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,-0.028,-0.31,0.12
85
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.336,0.169,0.515
86
- TiRex,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.503,0.197,0.728
87
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.239,0.583
88
- TiRex,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.529,0.338,0.668
89
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.275,0.621
90
- TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.272,0.554
91
- TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.434,0.684
92
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.334,-0.712,-0.129
93
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.143,-0.273,-0.033
94
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.133,-0.247,-0.053
95
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.143,0.5,-0.044,-0.089,0.0
96
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.004,-0.106,0.1
97
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.033,-0.089,0.024
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
98
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,1.0,-0.061,-0.315,0.078
100
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.149,0.506
101
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.176,0.713
102
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.222,0.572
103
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.514,0.325,0.662
104
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.414,0.22,0.62
105
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.389,0.252,0.546
106
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.554,0.421,0.679
107
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.257,-0.338,-0.176
108
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.077,-0.194,0.046
109
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.067,-0.16,0.052
110
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,0.016,-0.131,0.213
111
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.054,-0.094,0.218
112
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,0.027,-0.137,0.237
113
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.0,0.857,0.058,-0.084,0.239
114
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.354,0.211,0.501
116
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.278,0.71
117
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.418,0.253,0.577
118
- Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.447,0.641
119
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.447,0.235,0.637
120
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.424,0.298,0.546
121
- Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.58,0.489,0.675
122
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.945,-1.584,-0.543
123
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.667,-1.228,-0.385
124
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.652,-1.193,-0.367
125
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.523,-1.081,-0.22
126
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.465,-0.863,-0.207
127
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.506,-1.06,-0.203
128
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-1.024,-0.175
129
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.548,-1.004,-0.267
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.5,0.143,0.857,0.251,-0.089,0.59
132
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.099,0.04,0.168
133
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.291,0.111,0.457
134
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.145,-0.022,0.297
135
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.065,0.156
136
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.35,0.197,0.488
137
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.598,-3.4,-0.691
138
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.227,-2.843,-0.449
139
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.206,-2.835,-0.447
140
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.033,-2.679,-0.276
141
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.956,-2.566,-0.285
142
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.012,-2.671,-0.245
143
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.948,-2.49,-0.213
144
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.067,-2.451,-0.385
145
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.143,0.857,-0.335,-1.439,0.081
146
- AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.143,0.857,-0.204,-1.249,0.206
148
- AutoETS,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.053,-0.64,0.366
149
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.142,-1.244,0.281
150
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.19,-1.086,0.162
151
- AutoETS,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.132,-0.519,0.422
152
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.159,-2.083,-0.626
153
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.85,-1.659,-0.465
154
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.833,-1.598,-0.45
155
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.689,-1.455,-0.327
156
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.626,-1.233,-0.313
157
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.671,-1.397,-0.314
158
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-1.338,-0.285
159
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.718,-1.366,-0.338
160
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.11,-0.202,-0.041
161
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.5,0.143,0.857,0.169,-0.259,0.555
162
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoARIMA,Naive,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.213,-0.059,0.433
164
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.051,-0.11,0.186
165
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.012,-0.104,0.097
166
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.278,0.031,0.461
167
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.744,-2.501,-1.289
168
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.352,-2.14,-0.866
169
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.33,-2.188,-0.802
170
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.147,-2.033,-0.547
171
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.066,-1.806,-0.551
172
- Naive,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.124,-2.011,-0.509
173
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.057,-1.958,-0.481
174
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.183,-1.785,-0.809
175
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.41,-0.84,-0.125
176
- Naive,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.056,-0.578,0.39
177
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.271,-0.765,0.055
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
178
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.206,-0.723,0.161
180
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.256,-0.611,0.007
181
- Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.023,0.169
182
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.274,-2.646,-0.572
183
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.949,-1.993,-0.45
184
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.931,-1.902,-0.449
185
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.78,-1.688,-0.381
186
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.713,-1.383,-0.368
187
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.761,-1.636,-0.38
188
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.705,-1.63,-0.282
189
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.81,-1.758,-0.308
190
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.169,-0.423,0.021
191
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.125,-0.391,0.554
192
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.054,-0.228,0.099
193
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.171,-0.191,0.42
194
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.041,-0.261,0.126
196
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.24,-0.1,0.453
197
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.184,-1.892,-0.736
198
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.872,-1.448,-0.566
199
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.854,-1.43,-0.524
200
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.709,-1.292,-0.396
201
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.645,-1.035,-0.382
202
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.691,-1.241,-0.374
203
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.637,-1.201,-0.336
204
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.738,-1.202,-0.425
205
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.185,-0.069
206
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.159,-0.193,0.521
207
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.012,-0.107,0.095
208
- AutoTheta,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.204,-0.007,0.379
209
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.04,-0.144,0.207
210
- AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.27,0.119,0.414
212
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.992,-2.789,-1.486
213
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.564,-2.319,-1.127
214
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.54,-2.349,-1.066
215
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.341,-2.19,-0.813
216
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.253,-1.965,-0.822
217
- Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.316,-2.16,-0.765
218
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.243,-2.11,-0.727
219
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.38,-2.08,-0.956
220
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.538,-0.954,-0.246
221
- Drift,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.151,-0.731,0.341
222
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.386,-0.854,-0.032
223
- Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.09,-0.204,-0.024
224
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.315,-0.828,0.091
225
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.37,-0.705,-0.135
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.065,-0.014,0.173
4
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.08,0.03,0.14
5
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.109,0.032,0.209
6
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.136,0.059,0.226
7
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.129,0.084,0.186
8
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.103,0.259
9
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.148,0.099,0.198
10
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.319,0.51
11
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.312,0.531
12
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.476,0.341,0.599
13
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.434,0.333,0.532
14
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.382,0.572
15
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.506,0.388,0.617
16
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.514,0.42,0.599
17
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.07,-0.21,0.014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
18
  Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.016,-0.048,0.069
20
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.047,-0.0,0.1
21
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.076,0.017,0.14
22
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.069,-0.015,0.137
23
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.12,0.053,0.182
24
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.089,-0.011,0.164
25
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.288,0.473
26
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.29,0.482
27
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.315,0.574
28
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.314,0.488
29
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.446,0.353,0.545
30
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.37,0.581
31
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.48,0.397,0.565
32
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.088,-0.162,-0.031
33
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.017,-0.074,0.046
34
+ TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.031,-0.009,0.083
36
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.06,0.024,0.101
37
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.053,0.014,0.094
38
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.065,0.148
39
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.074,0.024,0.112
40
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.285,0.453
41
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.28,0.472
42
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.307,0.558
43
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.303,0.473
44
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.35,0.527
45
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.462,0.364,0.568
46
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.472,0.391,0.548
47
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.122,-0.264,-0.033
48
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.049,-0.111,0.0
49
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.032,-0.091,0.009
50
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.03,0.004,0.056
52
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.023,-0.05,0.081
53
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.077,0.03,0.124
54
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,0.95,0.044,-0.063,0.112
55
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.343,0.258,0.427
56
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.265,0.443
57
+ TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.412,0.283,0.547
58
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.286,0.45
59
+ TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.419,0.321,0.511
60
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.445,0.35,0.545
61
+ TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.377,0.533
62
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.157,-0.292,-0.062
63
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.082,-0.162,-0.017
64
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.064,-0.112,-0.025
65
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.031,-0.06,-0.004
66
+ Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.008,-0.075,0.05
68
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.048,0.003,0.096
69
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.014,-0.074,0.068
70
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.322,0.239,0.411
71
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.244,0.426
72
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.265,0.533
73
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.345,0.268,0.435
74
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.401,0.311,0.491
75
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.428,0.333,0.532
76
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.36,0.513
77
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.149,-0.229,-0.091
78
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.074,-0.159,0.015
79
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.056,-0.103,-0.015
80
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.023,-0.089,0.048
81
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.008,-0.053,0.07
82
+ TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.055,-0.022,0.125
84
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.022,-0.044,0.083
85
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.226,0.427
86
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.224,0.447
87
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.398,0.258,0.535
88
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.35,0.246,0.448
89
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.295,0.51
90
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.311,0.55
91
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.442,0.337,0.534
92
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.216,-0.349,-0.115
93
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.137,-0.223,-0.056
94
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.118,-0.174,-0.069
95
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.083,-0.141,-0.031
96
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.051,-0.106,-0.003
97
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.059,-0.143,0.022
98
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.036,-0.131,0.028
100
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.207,0.384
101
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.204,0.41
102
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.23,0.509
103
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.234,0.407
104
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.371,0.282,0.464
105
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.295,0.512
106
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.333,0.49
107
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.174,-0.247,-0.11
108
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.097,-0.196,0.011
109
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.08,-0.126,-0.024
110
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.15,0.05,0.3,-0.046,-0.126,0.059
111
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.014,-0.073,0.069
112
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.022,-0.09,0.042
113
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.034,-0.029,0.116
114
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.227,0.408
116
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.224,0.423
117
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.251,0.518
118
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.245,0.426
119
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.306,0.478
120
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.312,0.53
121
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.347,0.507
122
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.708,-1.042,-0.469
123
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.596,-0.898,-0.404
124
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.571,-0.828,-0.398
125
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.522,-0.746,-0.348
126
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.476,-0.699,-0.314
127
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.487,-0.746,-0.292
128
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.624,-0.261
129
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.455,-0.688,-0.293
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.525,0.325,0.725,0.011,-0.045,0.063
132
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.105,-0.033,0.285
133
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.033,-0.007,0.072
134
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.116,0.037,0.193
135
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.156,0.072,0.236
136
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.17,0.096,0.237
137
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.727,-1.133,-0.453
138
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.614,-0.93,-0.408
139
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.895,-0.389
140
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.539,-0.797,-0.361
141
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.492,-0.744,-0.323
142
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.503,-0.808,-0.289
143
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.42,-0.694,-0.256
144
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-0.734,-0.288
145
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.475,0.275,0.675,-0.011,-0.067,0.043
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.095,-0.068,0.276
148
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.023,-0.039,0.083
149
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.106,-0.005,0.204
150
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.146,0.061,0.226
151
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.161,0.062,0.25
152
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.909,-1.495,-0.517
153
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.784,-1.345,-0.461
154
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.755,-1.264,-0.444
155
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.7,-1.21,-0.394
156
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.649,-1.141,-0.36
157
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.662,-1.151,-0.347
158
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-1.035,-0.299
159
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.626,-1.074,-0.334
160
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.117,-0.399,0.032
161
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.105,-0.381,0.063
162
+ AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.08,-0.32,0.051
164
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.012,-0.2,0.142
165
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.057,-0.196,0.202
166
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.073,-0.137,0.197
167
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.767,-1.135,-0.5
168
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.652,-0.955,-0.458
169
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.625,-0.898,-0.434
170
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.574,-0.817,-0.401
171
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.527,-0.77,-0.366
172
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.538,-0.812,-0.326
173
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.453,-0.687,-0.305
174
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.741,-0.324
175
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.035,-0.077,0.007
176
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.023,-0.09,0.037
177
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.074,-0.054,0.242
178
+ AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoTheta,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.085,0.008,0.16
180
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.127,0.043,0.209
181
+ AutoTheta,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.142,0.077,0.202
182
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.932,-1.338,-0.617
183
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.806,-1.198,-0.545
184
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.777,-1.112,-0.538
185
+ Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.721,-1.045,-0.472
186
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.669,-0.964,-0.452
187
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.682,-1.039,-0.417
188
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.589,-0.866,-0.392
189
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.646,-0.915,-0.441
190
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.131,-0.239,-0.038
191
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.119,-0.256,0.005
192
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.012,-0.166,0.167
193
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.093,-0.19,-0.008
194
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.425,0.775,0.045,-0.064,0.152
196
+ Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.061,0.032,0.1
197
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.023,-1.609,-0.634
198
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.891,-1.385,-0.588
199
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.86,-1.313,-0.572
200
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.802,-1.198,-0.539
201
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.748,-1.138,-0.499
202
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.761,-1.22,-0.452
203
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.664,-1.049,-0.418
204
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-1.13,-0.453
205
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.185,-0.309,-0.078
206
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.172,-0.293,-0.065
207
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.06,-0.252,0.164
208
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.145,-0.264,-0.045
209
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.225,0.575,-0.047,-0.179,0.06
210
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.017,-0.096,0.115
212
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.059,-1.492,-0.723
213
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.924,-1.3,-0.659
214
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.893,-1.214,-0.641
215
+ Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.834,-1.143,-0.606
216
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.779,-1.054,-0.562
217
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.792,-1.147,-0.508
218
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.693,-0.96,-0.5
219
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.753,-1.028,-0.532
220
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.205,-0.311,-0.106
221
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.192,-0.333,-0.066
222
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.079,-0.245,0.12
223
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.165,-0.253,-0.083
224
+ Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.065,-0.111,-0.033
225
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.018,-0.129,0.088
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.158,0.043,0.301
4
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.141,0.07,0.248
5
- Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.066,0.44
6
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.238,0.081,0.442
7
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.254,0.095,0.423
8
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.116,0.461
9
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.176,0.3
10
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.621,0.505,0.718
11
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.611,0.469,0.728
12
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.66,0.518,0.784
13
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.745,0.662,0.803
14
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.836,0.613,0.945
15
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.82,0.76,0.862
16
- Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.83,0.773,0.869
17
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.188,-0.43,-0.044
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
18
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.021,-0.079,0.042
20
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.09,-0.007,0.207
21
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.095,0.015,0.207
22
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.113,0.03,0.202
23
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.136,0.054,0.235
24
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.094,-0.049,0.187
25
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.434,0.665
26
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.423,0.656
27
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.596,0.478,0.721
28
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.697,0.588,0.781
29
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.803,0.518,0.937
30
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.787,0.675,0.848
31
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.798,0.698,0.855
32
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.164,-0.329,-0.075
33
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.02,-0.044,0.073
34
- TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.108,-0.007,0.257
36
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.114,0.004,0.261
37
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.131,0.027,0.239
38
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.153,0.034,0.286
39
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.112,0.012,0.19
40
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.448,0.667
41
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.547,0.416,0.665
42
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.604,0.48,0.73
43
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.703,0.608,0.775
44
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.811,0.538,0.939
45
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.791,0.695,0.848
46
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.802,0.717,0.856
47
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.785,-0.071
48
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.098,-0.261,0.007
49
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.121,-0.347,0.007
50
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.006,-0.015,0.026
52
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.026,-0.065,0.105
53
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.051,-0.006,0.102
54
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.004,-0.311,0.159
55
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.348,0.638
56
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.356,0.628
57
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.436,0.696
58
- TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.667,0.5,0.768
59
- TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.428,0.936
60
- TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.766,0.607,0.845
61
- TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.637,0.852
62
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.313,-0.793,-0.088
63
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.105,-0.261,-0.015
64
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.128,-0.353,-0.004
65
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.006,-0.027,0.015
66
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.02,-0.073,0.112
68
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.5,0.857,0.045,0.0,0.086
69
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,-0.002,-0.318,0.152
70
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.502,0.345,0.643
71
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.353,0.631
72
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.553,0.432,0.699
73
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.665,0.496,0.769
74
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.426,0.936
75
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.764,0.605,0.843
76
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.776,0.637,0.849
77
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.34,-0.735,-0.106
78
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.127,-0.253,-0.031
79
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.151,-0.315,-0.028
80
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.026,-0.117,0.061
81
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.02,-0.127,0.068
82
- Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.026,-0.104,0.134
84
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.022,-0.267,0.12
85
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.353,0.615
86
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.352,0.593
87
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.544,0.442,0.668
88
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.658,0.504,0.757
89
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.782,0.435,0.933
90
- Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.603,0.842
91
- Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.772,0.634,0.848
92
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.375,-0.856,-0.131
93
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.157,-0.308,-0.057
94
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.181,-0.401,-0.035
95
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.053,-0.114,0.006
96
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.143,0.5,-0.047,-0.095,0.0
97
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.026,-0.155,0.094
98
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,-0.049,-0.364,0.121
100
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.332,0.621
101
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.465,0.332,0.614
102
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.532,0.395,0.691
103
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.649,0.48,0.764
104
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.408,0.935
105
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.596,0.83
106
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.766,0.629,0.838
107
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.311,-0.428,-0.214
108
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.103,-0.23,0.047
109
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.126,-0.234,-0.012
110
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.004,-0.189,0.237
111
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,0.002,-0.18,0.241
112
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.021,-0.136,0.211
113
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.714,0.046,-0.138,0.267
114
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.382,0.61
116
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.49,0.347,0.613
117
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.554,0.401,0.692
118
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.665,0.562,0.745
119
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.787,0.484,0.931
120
- Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.765,0.679,0.824
121
- Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.777,0.699,0.835
122
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.638,-2.549,-1.019
123
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.22,-1.982,-0.767
124
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.266,-2.003,-0.812
125
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.021,-1.759,-0.534
126
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.009,-1.797,-0.527
127
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.969,-1.597,-0.546
128
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.919,-1.639,-0.498
129
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.012,-1.565,-0.619
130
- Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.357,0.071,0.714,-0.026,-0.137,0.079
132
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.103,-0.137,0.273
133
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.129,0.506
134
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.571,-0.123,0.874
135
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.526,0.309,0.661
136
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.346,0.676
137
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.571,-2.67,-0.884
138
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.163,-1.91,-0.732
139
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.208,-1.987,-0.714
140
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.969,-1.687,-0.553
141
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.958,-1.712,-0.546
142
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.919,-1.457,-0.544
143
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.87,-1.59,-0.497
144
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.961,-1.586,-0.531
145
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.643,0.286,0.929,0.026,-0.086,0.12
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.126,-0.016,0.237
148
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.344,0.113,0.535
149
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.643,0.286,0.929,0.582,-0.076,0.877
150
- AutoARIMA,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.539,0.261,0.693
151
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.562,0.308,0.706
152
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.94,-3.623,-1.073
153
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.474,-2.58,-0.915
154
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.525,-2.706,-0.924
155
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.252,-2.289,-0.773
156
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.239,-2.318,-0.76
157
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.194,-2.015,-0.792
158
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.138,-2.239,-0.653
159
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.242,-2.242,-0.669
160
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.114,-0.376,0.12
161
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.144,-0.311,0.016
162
- Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.25,-0.111,0.492
164
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.522,-0.233,0.857
165
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.472,0.081,0.676
166
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.499,0.138,0.694
167
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.919,-4.075,-1.959
168
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.298,-3.568,-1.429
169
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.366,-3.443,-1.552
170
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.002,-3.313,-1.0
171
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.984,-3.334,-0.983
172
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.925,-3.109,-1.016
173
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.85,-3.232,-0.923
174
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.989,-2.914,-1.285
175
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-1.025,-0.148
176
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.524,-1.15,-0.128
177
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.333,-0.969,0.1
178
- AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.363,-0.461,0.761
180
- AutoTheta,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.296,0.088,0.445
181
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.332,0.147,0.469
182
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.088,-17.122,-1.586
183
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.089,-14.995,-1.073
184
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.282,-15.397,-1.163
185
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.67,-14.714,-0.747
186
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.642,-14.63,-0.741
187
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.581,-13.954,-0.769
188
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.433,-14.301,-0.69
189
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.69,-13.577,-0.939
190
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-1.331,-6.945,0.109
191
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.357,0.071,0.714,-1.392,-7.151,0.071
192
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,-1.092,-5.975,0.189
193
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.569,-3.185,0.315
194
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- AutoETS,Naive,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.104,-2.134,0.59
196
- AutoETS,Drift,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.047,-1.991,0.607
197
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.57,-6.236,-3.164
198
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.688,-5.601,-2.08
199
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.785,-5.587,-2.277
200
- Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.268,-5.471,-1.541
201
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.242,-5.379,-1.534
202
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.158,-5.33,-1.519
203
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.051,-4.881,-1.477
204
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.249,-4.689,-2.112
205
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.112,-1.946,-0.447
206
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.167,-2.26,-0.353
207
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.895,-2.089,-0.088
208
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.421,-0.8,-0.096
209
- Naive,AutoETS,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.094,-1.439,0.681
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.051,0.019,0.095
212
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.87,-6.635,-3.397
213
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.94,-5.907,-2.31
214
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.043,-5.924,-2.539
215
- Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.498,-5.77,-1.756
216
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.47,-5.631,-1.752
217
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.382,-5.586,-1.731
218
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.27,-5.155,-1.698
219
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.478,-5.044,-2.324
220
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.225,-2.087,-0.528
221
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.284,-2.398,-0.445
222
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.997,-2.273,-0.16
223
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.498,-0.882,-0.172
224
- Drift,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.045,-1.547,0.666
225
- Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.054,-0.105,-0.02
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.07,-0.014,0.185
4
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.088,0.033,0.155
5
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.113,0.032,0.222
6
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.151,0.066,0.248
7
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.134,0.247
8
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.21,0.134,0.3
9
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.145,0.236
10
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.504,0.412,0.597
11
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.505,0.655
12
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.573,0.855
13
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.643,0.566,0.707
14
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.669,0.582,0.746
15
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.8,0.757,0.837
16
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.808,0.765,0.845
17
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.075,-0.227,0.013
18
+ Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.019,-0.047,0.073
20
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.046,0.0,0.095
21
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.087,0.03,0.145
22
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,0.024,0.218
23
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.151,0.089,0.21
24
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.129,0.024,0.201
25
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.467,0.398,0.544
26
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.473,0.628
27
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.709,0.535,0.843
28
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.616,0.541,0.683
29
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.562,0.725
30
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.726,0.829
31
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.793,0.736,0.838
32
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.097,-0.183,-0.034
33
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.02,-0.079,0.045
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.018,0.086
36
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.069,0.028,0.116
37
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.112,0.044,0.188
38
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.134,0.092,0.179
39
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.111,0.06,0.148
40
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.384,0.539
41
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.468,0.619
42
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.704,0.532,0.841
43
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.609,0.535,0.678
44
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.638,0.557,0.714
45
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.78,0.727,0.825
46
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.789,0.739,0.832
47
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.127,-0.285,-0.033
48
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.048,-0.105,-0.0
49
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.095,0.018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
50
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.043,0.019,0.07
52
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.087,-0.014,0.174
53
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.11,0.064,0.155
54
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.087,-0.025,0.153
55
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.376,0.512
56
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.452,0.602
57
+ TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.697,0.514,0.839
58
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.598,0.521,0.663
59
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.627,0.54,0.71
60
+ TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.712,0.821
61
+ TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.783,0.724,0.829
62
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.177,-0.33,-0.071
63
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.095,-0.169,-0.031
64
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.074,-0.131,-0.029
65
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.044,-0.075,-0.02
66
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.047,-0.055,0.137
68
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.699,0.975,0.07,0.023,0.118
69
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.046,-0.056,0.104
70
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.347,0.496
71
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.508,0.423,0.589
72
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.685,0.494,0.835
73
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.58,0.498,0.651
74
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.611,0.523,0.693
75
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.764,0.7,0.813
76
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.773,0.715,0.821
77
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.235,-0.329,-0.154
78
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.149,-0.279,-0.025
79
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.126,-0.232,-0.046
80
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.096,-0.211,0.014
81
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.049,-0.159,0.053
82
+ TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.024,-0.094,0.121
84
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.001,-0.093,0.08
85
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.387,0.274,0.491
86
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.484,0.39,0.568
87
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.676,0.465,0.829
88
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.468,0.641
89
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.483,0.685
90
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.698,0.798
91
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.762,0.711,0.806
92
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.266,-0.429,-0.154
93
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.177,-0.266,-0.097
94
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.218,-0.101
95
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.123,-0.183,-0.069
96
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.025,0.301,-0.075,-0.134,-0.024
97
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.025,-0.137,0.086
98
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.026,-0.135,0.046
100
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.287,0.466
101
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.385,0.561
102
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.664,0.456,0.823
103
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.464,0.625
104
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.486,0.675
105
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.682,0.796
106
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.756,0.698,0.805
107
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.234,-0.309,-0.169
108
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.148,-0.251,-0.025
109
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.125,-0.173,-0.063
110
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.095,-0.18,0.025
111
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.048,-0.116,0.053
112
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.001,-0.086,0.085
113
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.025,-0.048,0.119
114
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.302,0.48
116
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.485,0.404,0.566
117
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.672,0.475,0.826
118
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.56,0.48,0.633
119
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.504,0.674
120
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.702,0.798
121
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.763,0.715,0.808
122
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.016,-1.48,-0.701
123
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.875,-1.195,-0.66
124
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.839,-1.168,-0.623
125
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.789,-1.05,-0.601
126
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.713,-0.984,-0.532
127
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.632,-0.965,-0.378
128
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.873,-0.403
129
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.634,-0.922,-0.434
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
130
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.775,0.6,0.925,0.158,0.066,0.258
132
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.775,0.6,0.95,0.493,0.136,0.747
133
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.281,0.178,0.381
134
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.334,0.206,0.456
135
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.596,0.479,0.687
136
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.612,0.496,0.7
137
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.395,-1.901,-1.02
138
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.227,-1.689,-0.897
139
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.184,-1.624,-0.88
140
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.125,-1.511,-0.826
141
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.034,-1.432,-0.734
142
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.939,-1.317,-0.639
143
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.892,-1.278,-0.626
144
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.941,-1.304,-0.678
145
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.225,0.075,0.4,-0.188,-0.348,-0.07
146
+ Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.432,0.004,0.725
148
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.146,0.088,0.213
149
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.208,-0.0,0.366
150
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.52,0.395,0.624
151
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.421,0.64
152
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.71,-5.874,-1.34
153
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.437,-5.367,-1.149
154
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.382,-5.287,-1.137
155
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.298,-5.196,-1.056
156
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.171,-5.048,-0.977
157
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-2.09,-4.847,-0.87
158
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.974,-4.644,-0.837
159
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.046,-4.752,-0.906
160
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.225,0.05,0.4,-0.971,-2.951,-0.157
161
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.759,-2.642,-0.004
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
162
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.532,-2.194,0.136
164
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.875,-0.4,-1.897,0.22
165
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.097,-1.154,0.533
166
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.128,-1.084,0.55
167
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.802,-2.419,-1.302
168
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.606,-2.154,-1.18
169
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.556,-2.107,-1.153
170
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.487,-1.971,-1.087
171
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.381,-1.863,-0.992
172
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.269,-1.786,-0.878
173
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.214,-1.668,-0.867
174
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.271,-1.728,-0.922
175
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.39,-0.615,-0.216
176
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.17,-0.271,-0.097
177
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.347,-0.157,0.687
178
+ AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.074,-0.208,0.273
180
+ AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.438,0.308,0.555
181
+ AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.461,0.336,0.574
182
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.025,-2.936,-1.394
183
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.813,-2.641,-1.285
184
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.759,-2.495,-1.259
185
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.684,-2.448,-1.175
186
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.57,-2.259,-1.095
187
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.449,-2.176,-0.936
188
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.39,-2.073,-0.945
189
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.452,-2.065,-1.017
190
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.5,-0.839,-0.259
191
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.263,-0.577,0.0
192
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.125,0.475,0.286,-0.282,0.655
193
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.079,-0.376,0.172
194
+ Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.7,0.525,0.85,0.394,0.19,0.555
196
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.418,0.219,0.575
197
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.991,-5.118,-3.118
198
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.642,-4.863,-2.647
199
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.552,-4.721,-2.668
200
+ Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.428,-4.591,-2.469
201
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.24,-4.339,-2.329
202
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.041,-3.961,-2.314
203
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.943,-3.911,-2.141
204
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.045,-3.943,-2.361
205
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.475,-2.196,-0.918
206
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.084,-1.66,-0.654
207
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.107,-1.141,0.536
208
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.781,-1.246,-0.445
209
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.15,0.475,-0.65,-1.249,-0.234
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.023,0.06
212
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.196,-5.431,-3.251
213
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.832,-5.185,-2.788
214
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.738,-4.957,-2.832
215
+ Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.61,-4.86,-2.621
216
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.414,-4.579,-2.506
217
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.207,-4.157,-2.457
218
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.105,-4.13,-2.31
219
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.211,-4.217,-2.506
220
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.577,-2.334,-0.985
221
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.17,-1.781,-0.726
222
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.147,-1.224,0.52
223
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.854,-1.347,-0.507
224
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.717,-1.355,-0.28
225
+ Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.041,-0.064,-0.024
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Stat. Ensemble,90.17857142857143,45.72271417010185,0.0,122.9322408277356,0.0,0.0
3
- TiRex,77.67857142857143,44.68528567939526,0.0,0.18221935274193551,0.0,0.0
4
- AutoETS,75.0,43.8562914987522,0.0,5.3983249310847565,0.0,0.0
5
- Toto-1.0,72.32142857142857,43.03907891600834,0.0,7.622120549525617,0.25,0.0
6
- Chronos-2,71.42857142857143,43.58823324343927,0.0,0.16078357790322584,0.0,0.0
7
- Drift,54.46428571428571,39.92981801659404,0.0,0.5798891508064516,0.0,0.0
8
- AutoARIMA,52.67857142857143,40.48569891732045,0.0,22.892829618333334,0.0,0.0
9
- AutoTheta,51.78571428571429,39.29970062283895,0.0,1.519237516948134,0.0,0.0
10
- TimesFM-2.5,50.89285714285714,40.2381308594362,0.0,0.3558541395777989,0.25,0.0
11
- Moirai-2.0,50.0,38.98358451041862,0.0,0.23928379935483873,0.25,0.0
12
- Chronos-Bolt,45.535714285714285,39.07806454283599,0.0,0.20812267177419355,0.0,0.0
13
- TabPFN-TS,26.785714285714285,31.96593439462625,0.0,31.315901102580646,0.0,0.0
14
- Sundial-Base,16.964285714285715,27.148269806722414,0.0,8.033898541935486,0.0,0.0
15
- Naive,13.839285714285715,25.907009582259498,0.0,0.6308955793548388,0.0,0.0
16
- Seasonal Naive,0.4464285714285714,0.0,0.0,0.6923838372580645,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Stat. Ensemble,86.30952380952381,38.477174892111854,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0
3
+ TiRex,75.5952380952381,36.87592043229662,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0
4
+ Chronos-2,72.61904761904762,36.307128150625054,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0
5
+ AutoETS,70.23809523809524,35.90887063284529,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0
6
+ Toto-1.0,62.5,32.38399314015735,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0
7
+ AutoTheta,55.952380952380956,32.52926187728524,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0
8
+ AutoARIMA,55.35714285714286,33.893658153503736,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0
9
+ Drift,54.76190476190476,29.639454010750132,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0
10
+ TimesFM-2.5,50.5952380952381,32.83344752168508,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0
11
+ TabPFN-TS,44.04761904761905,28.784283550853363,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0
12
+ Chronos-Bolt,40.476190476190474,30.133730037212626,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0
13
+ Moirai-2.0,39.285714285714285,28.236498726371508,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0
14
+ Sundial-Base,21.428571428571434,19.709514878708077,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0
15
+ Naive,13.69047619047619,15.593612409564518,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0
16
+ Seasonal Naive,7.142857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- TiRex,90.17857142857143,45.89296124228933,0.0,0.18221935274193551,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,85.71428571428571,44.83531465181275,0.0,0.16078357790322584,0.0,0.0
4
- Toto-1.0,78.57142857142857,43.917307786456576,0.0,7.622120549525617,0.25,0.0
5
- Stat. Ensemble,77.67857142857143,44.003964088540535,0.0,122.9322408277356,0.0,0.0
6
- AutoETS,68.75,42.51990893939105,0.0,5.3983249310847565,0.0,0.0
7
- TimesFM-2.5,58.03571428571429,40.589714436687586,0.0,0.3558541395777989,0.25,0.0
8
- Moirai-2.0,54.46428571428571,39.72839855687115,0.0,0.23928379935483873,0.25,0.0
9
- Chronos-Bolt,53.57142857142857,40.67928797448308,0.0,0.20812267177419355,0.0,0.0
10
- AutoARIMA,44.642857142857146,37.817317026771654,0.0,22.892829618333334,0.0,0.0
11
- Drift,41.07142857142857,36.80178041975791,0.0,0.5798891508064516,0.0,0.0
12
- AutoTheta,36.607142857142854,35.9096442302903,0.0,1.519237516948134,0.0,0.0
13
- TabPFN-TS,33.92857142857143,35.64829103376008,0.0,31.315901102580646,0.0,0.0
14
- Sundial-Base,13.392857142857142,22.9740045287535,0.0,8.033898541935486,0.0,0.0
15
- Naive,12.946428571428573,22.54165568761486,0.0,0.6308955793548388,0.0,0.0
16
- Seasonal Naive,0.4464285714285714,0.0,0.0,0.6923838372580645,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ TiRex,86.30952380952381,38.167872268859085,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,85.11904761904762,37.73601239308477,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0
4
+ Stat. Ensemble,78.57142857142858,37.11985318962454,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0
5
+ Toto-1.0,65.47619047619048,33.46942523050611,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0
6
+ AutoETS,62.5,29.185864234223647,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0
7
+ TimesFM-2.5,54.761904761904766,32.77207032704751,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0
8
+ AutoARIMA,50.5952380952381,31.721452512923896,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0
9
+ TabPFN-TS,50.000000000000014,31.399100116246935,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0
10
+ Chronos-Bolt,50.0,31.818155351289157,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0
11
+ Drift,43.45238095238095,25.58270358587049,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0
12
+ Moirai-2.0,43.45238095238095,29.079628772649933,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0
13
+ AutoTheta,42.26190476190476,29.618968091908858,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0
14
+ Sundial-Base,16.666666666666668,14.51026077809361,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0
15
+ Naive,13.69047619047619,11.510639986489046,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0
16
+ Seasonal Naive,7.142857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- TiRex,83.92857142857143,46.98885754022878,0.0,0.18221935274193551,0.0,0.0
3
- Toto-1.0,77.67857142857143,45.23136019790227,0.0,7.622120549525617,0.25,0.0
4
- Chronos-2,72.32142857142857,45.44326979757438,0.0,0.16078357790322584,0.0,0.0
5
- Stat. Ensemble,67.85714285714286,43.912437498598024,0.0,122.9322408277356,0.0,0.0
6
- TimesFM-2.5,66.96428571428571,44.549103435681026,0.0,0.3558541395777989,0.25,0.0
7
- Moirai-2.0,60.71428571428571,40.41824623531372,0.0,0.23928379935483873,0.25,0.0
8
- Chronos-Bolt,58.92857142857143,41.531861389854654,0.0,0.20812267177419355,0.0,0.0
9
- AutoETS,55.35714285714286,42.0098616544033,0.0,5.3983249310847565,0.0,0.0
10
- TabPFN-TS,46.42857142857143,37.52064439642875,0.0,31.315901102580646,0.0,0.0
11
- Drift,45.535714285714285,35.93207741626288,0.0,0.5798891508064516,0.0,0.0
12
- AutoARIMA,43.75,42.36950034572045,0.0,22.892829618333334,0.0,0.0
13
- AutoTheta,35.714285714285715,34.9733628053867,0.0,1.519237516948134,0.0,0.0
14
- Naive,21.875,27.215123726980593,0.0,0.6308955793548388,0.0,0.0
15
- Sundial-Base,12.5,26.36278133837574,0.0,8.033898541935486,0.0,0.0
16
- Seasonal Naive,0.4464285714285714,0.0,0.0,0.6923838372580645,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ TiRex,75.5952380952381,37.758720420324885,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0
3
+ Stat. Ensemble,72.02380952380952,38.17771635240618,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0
4
+ Chronos-2,67.26190476190477,36.55873563764085,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0
5
+ Toto-1.0,66.66666666666667,33.97027771884091,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0
6
+ TimesFM-2.5,63.09523809523808,35.892561173334556,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0
7
+ AutoETS,58.92857142857143,34.84116701303258,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0
8
+ TabPFN-TS,58.333333333333336,34.28532719607597,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0
9
+ AutoARIMA,50.5952380952381,35.73217052389407,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0
10
+ Chronos-Bolt,49.404761904761905,30.47814442259772,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0
11
+ Drift,48.214285714285715,28.435825322795704,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0
12
+ Moirai-2.0,47.023809523809526,28.27751413794253,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0
13
+ AutoTheta,45.83333333333333,31.81292365948549,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0
14
+ Naive,20.833333333333332,15.872311480991785,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0
15
+ Sundial-Base,17.261904761904763,17.737236553561875,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0
16
+ Seasonal Naive,8.928571428571427,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- TiRex,88.39285714285714,51.91477926789758,0.0,0.18221935274193551,0.0,0.0
3
- Toto-1.0,83.92857142857143,50.15772831185203,0.0,7.622120549525617,0.25,0.0
4
- Chronos-2,83.03571428571429,50.35490090839225,0.0,0.16078357790322584,0.0,0.0
5
- TimesFM-2.5,75.0,49.42198208023613,0.0,0.3558541395777989,0.25,0.0
6
- Moirai-2.0,70.53571428571429,45.62669510318664,0.0,0.23928379935483873,0.25,0.0
7
- Chronos-Bolt,66.07142857142857,47.23739479366008,0.0,0.20812267177419355,0.0,0.0
8
- AutoETS,55.35714285714286,45.99017074595535,0.0,5.3983249310847565,0.0,0.0
9
- TabPFN-TS,52.67857142857143,43.99921543221276,0.0,31.315901102580646,0.0,0.0
10
- Stat. Ensemble,51.78571428571429,44.05004183245015,0.0,122.9322408277356,0.0,0.0
11
- AutoARIMA,36.607142857142854,40.963713207000154,0.0,22.892829618333334,0.0,0.0
12
- Drift,29.464285714285715,33.203638309970195,0.0,0.5798891508064516,0.0,0.0
13
- AutoTheta,25.0,32.478533527609585,0.0,1.519237516948134,0.0,0.0
14
- Sundial-Base,18.75,29.140422145178178,0.0,8.033898541935486,0.0,0.0
15
- Naive,12.946428571428573,24.05130462838899,0.0,0.6308955793548388,0.0,0.0
16
- Seasonal Naive,0.4464285714285714,0.0,0.0,0.6923838372580645,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ TiRex,83.33333333333334,42.09146585989647,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,76.78571428571426,40.960757226189024,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0
4
+ Toto-1.0,70.83333333333334,38.07263005492061,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0
5
+ TimesFM-2.5,66.07142857142857,39.26649292250398,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0
6
+ TabPFN-TS,62.5,38.29459805551885,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0
7
+ Stat. Ensemble,61.9047619047619,37.99224244127147,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0
8
+ Chronos-Bolt,58.33333333333333,35.53495230927829,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0
9
+ AutoETS,55.35714285714286,36.76571975679717,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0
10
+ Moirai-2.0,52.976190476190474,32.793225134905136,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0
11
+ AutoARIMA,46.42857142857143,34.4461529963365,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0
12
+ AutoTheta,36.90476190476191,29.146207716766202,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0
13
+ Drift,33.92857142857143,23.82864899904751,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0
14
+ Sundial-Base,19.642857142857142,17.532849713917752,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0
15
+ Naive,15.47619047619048,11.37195841028552,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0
16
+ Seasonal Naive,9.523809523809524,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_econ/pairwise_MASE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.019,-0.012,0.054
4
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.033,0.009,0.064
5
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.25,0.878,0.047,-0.014,0.12
6
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.038,-0.002,0.092
7
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.096,0.058,0.137
8
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.088,0.022,0.181
9
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.106,0.063,0.149
10
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.092,0.048,0.146
11
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.11,0.041,0.184
12
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.109,0.047,0.179
13
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.202,0.141,0.276
14
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.179,0.34
15
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.164,0.373
16
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.368,0.548
17
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.019,-0.057,0.012
18
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TiRex,AutoETS,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.015,-0.005,0.035
20
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.029,-0.058,0.124
21
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.019,-0.013,0.052
22
- TiRex,Drift,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.079,0.038,0.12
23
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,0.878,0.071,-0.023,0.187
24
- TiRex,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.089,0.044,0.131
25
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.074,0.022,0.145
26
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.093,0.024,0.173
27
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.092,0.035,0.162
28
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.187,0.131,0.263
29
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.241,0.18,0.305
30
- TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.156,0.35
31
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.447,0.355,0.542
32
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.034,-0.069,-0.009
33
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.015,-0.036,0.005
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
34
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.014,-0.068,0.102
36
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.005,-0.024,0.037
37
- AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.065,0.023,0.104
38
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.057,-0.034,0.166
39
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.075,0.031,0.117
40
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.061,0.003,0.126
41
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.08,0.018,0.149
42
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.078,0.025,0.144
43
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.114,0.251
44
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.163,0.299
45
- AutoETS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.242,0.148,0.338
46
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.343,0.531
47
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.375,0.122,0.75,-0.049,-0.137,0.014
48
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.03,-0.142,0.055
49
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.015,-0.114,0.064
50
  Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.01,-0.115,0.087
52
- Toto-1.0,Drift,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.052,-0.03,0.115
53
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.043,-0.012,0.089
54
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.062,-0.023,0.129
55
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.875,0.688,1.0,0.047,0.012,0.088
56
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.066,0.008,0.138
57
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.065,0.015,0.138
58
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.163,0.034,0.281
59
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.107,0.332
60
- Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.231,0.124,0.348
61
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.354,0.51
62
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.039,-0.102,0.002
63
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.02,-0.055,0.013
64
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.005,-0.038,0.024
65
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.01,-0.095,0.103
66
- Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- Chronos-2,Drift,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.061,0.004,0.113
68
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,0.878,0.052,-0.054,0.162
69
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.071,0.011,0.129
70
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.497,1.0,0.056,-0.007,0.123
71
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.075,0.015,0.154
72
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.074,0.033,0.13
73
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.171,0.099,0.262
74
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.226,0.162,0.282
75
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.146,0.325
76
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.436,0.354,0.523
77
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.107,-0.158,-0.061
78
- Drift,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.086,-0.137,-0.04
79
- Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.07,-0.116,-0.024
80
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.055,-0.13,0.029
81
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.065,-0.127,-0.004
82
- Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.009,-0.116,0.096
84
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.01,0.001,0.023
85
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.005,-0.061,0.051
86
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.016,-0.048,0.074
87
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.014,-0.047,0.077
88
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.117,0.031,0.204
89
- Drift,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.116,0.251
90
- Drift,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.106,0.28
91
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.313,0.491
92
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.096,-0.22,-0.022
93
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.375,0.122,0.75,-0.076,-0.23,0.022
94
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.06,-0.199,0.033
95
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.045,-0.098,0.011
96
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.375,0.122,0.75,-0.055,-0.193,0.051
97
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.009,-0.106,0.104
98
- AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.02,-0.1,0.116
100
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.004,-0.057,0.058
101
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.122,0.75,0.025,-0.067,0.124
102
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.023,-0.06,0.108
103
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.125,-0.025,0.229
104
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.183,0.046,0.304
105
- AutoARIMA,Naive,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.197,0.073,0.328
106
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.335,0.483
107
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.118,-0.175,-0.068
108
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.097,-0.151,-0.046
109
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.081,-0.132,-0.032
110
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.066,-0.148,0.023
111
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.076,-0.148,-0.011
112
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.01,-0.023,-0.001
113
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.02,-0.131,0.091
114
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.016,-0.076,0.043
116
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.005,-0.067,0.068
117
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.004,-0.067,0.072
118
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.108,0.023,0.192
119
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.107,0.241
120
- AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.181,0.091,0.276
121
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.393,0.302,0.487
122
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.101,-0.171,-0.05
123
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.08,-0.169,-0.022
124
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.064,-0.144,-0.003
125
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.312,-0.049,-0.096,-0.012
126
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.503,-0.059,-0.14,0.007
127
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.005,-0.053,0.057
128
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.004,-0.062,0.054
129
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.015,-0.045,0.071
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
130
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.312,0.875,0.021,-0.033,0.083
132
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.312,0.875,0.019,-0.022,0.064
133
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.122,0.008,0.224
134
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.09,0.271
135
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.193,0.095,0.294
136
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.33,0.473
137
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.124,-0.225,-0.043
138
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.103,-0.209,-0.025
139
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.087,-0.175,-0.018
140
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.071,-0.16,-0.008
141
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.182,-0.015
142
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.016,-0.08,0.046
143
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,0.878,-0.025,-0.142,0.063
144
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.005,-0.073,0.063
145
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.688,-0.021,-0.09,0.032
146
- Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.002,-0.046,0.031
148
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.103,-0.033,0.224
149
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.162,0.077,0.242
150
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.176,0.102,0.254
151
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.39,0.308,0.462
152
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.122,-0.218,-0.05
153
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.101,-0.194,-0.036
154
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.085,-0.169,-0.025
155
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.07,-0.16,-0.016
156
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.08,-0.149,-0.035
157
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.014,-0.084,0.045
158
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.024,-0.121,0.057
159
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.004,-0.077,0.063
160
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.688,-0.019,-0.069,0.021
161
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.002,-0.032,0.044
162
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.105,-0.018,0.22
164
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.164,0.084,0.233
165
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.1,0.255
166
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.391,0.323,0.455
167
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.253,-0.381,-0.164
168
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.23,-0.357,-0.151
169
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.335,-0.129
170
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.194,-0.391,-0.035
171
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.206,-0.355,-0.11
172
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.133,-0.257,-0.032
173
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.143,-0.298,0.024
174
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.121,-0.238,-0.023
175
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.138,-0.288,-0.008
176
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.115,-0.289,0.032
177
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.117,-0.282,0.018
178
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.066,-0.055,0.176
180
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.082,-0.09,0.231
181
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.172,0.453
182
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.342,-0.515,-0.218
183
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.317,-0.439,-0.22
184
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.428,-0.195
185
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.498,-0.12
186
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.291,-0.393,-0.193
187
- Sundial-Base,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.213,-0.335,-0.131
188
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.224,-0.437,-0.048
189
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.2,-0.318,-0.12
190
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.219,-0.372,-0.099
191
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.194,-0.319,-0.084
192
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.196,-0.304,-0.092
193
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.071,-0.214,0.052
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
194
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- Sundial-Base,Naive,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.017,-0.052,0.083
196
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.165,0.375
197
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.365,-0.596,-0.196
198
- Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.537,-0.185
199
- Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.511,-0.173
200
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.301,-0.534,-0.142
201
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.313,-0.482,-0.171
202
- Naive,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.233,-0.389,-0.118
203
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.245,-0.487,-0.079
204
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.221,-0.38,-0.1
205
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.24,-0.417,-0.105
206
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.214,-0.341,-0.114
207
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.216,-0.342,-0.111
208
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.089,-0.3,0.083
209
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.017,-0.091,0.05
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.812,1.0,0.259,0.172,0.333
212
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.842,-1.212,-0.582
213
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.808,-1.182,-0.551
214
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.781,-1.13,-0.523
215
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.756,-1.042,-0.548
216
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.773,-1.098,-0.548
217
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.665,-0.963,-0.455
218
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.68,-0.933,-0.504
219
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.647,-0.95,-0.433
220
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.673,-0.899,-0.493
221
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.639,-0.86,-0.445
222
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.641,-0.835,-0.478
223
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.47,-0.828,-0.208
224
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.373,-0.6,-0.197
225
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.062,0.0,0.188,-0.35,-0.5,-0.207
226
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.025,-0.023,0.072
4
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.034,-0.014,0.087
5
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.04,0.016,0.067
6
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.417,1.0,0.09,0.025,0.15
7
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.088,0.053,0.126
8
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.069,0.021,0.135
9
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.126,0.051,0.221
10
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.084,0.03,0.143
11
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.136,0.054,0.213
12
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.068,0.168
13
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.143,0.081,0.197
14
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.234,0.156,0.302
15
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.195,0.346
16
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.289,0.476
17
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.026,-0.078,0.023
18
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.009,-0.026,0.043
20
+ TiRex,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.015,-0.013,0.045
21
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.066,-0.018,0.15
22
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.064,-0.009,0.126
23
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.045,-0.033,0.133
24
+ TiRex,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.103,-0.002,0.214
25
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.06,0.02,0.109
26
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.114,0.033,0.194
27
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.097,0.05,0.149
28
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.12,0.05,0.194
29
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.214,0.149,0.271
30
+ TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.163,0.335
31
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.261,0.466
32
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.035,-0.095,0.014
33
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.009,-0.045,0.026
34
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.006,-0.027,0.041
36
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.058,-0.037,0.145
37
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.056,-0.023,0.124
38
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.037,-0.046,0.122
39
+ Chronos-2,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.095,-0.024,0.22
40
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.052,0.004,0.099
41
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.106,0.025,0.194
42
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.044,0.143
43
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.112,0.045,0.186
44
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.207,0.156,0.255
45
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.159,0.328
46
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.264,0.451
47
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.042,-0.072,-0.016
48
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.015,-0.047,0.013
49
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.006,-0.043,0.026
50
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.052,-0.025,0.122
52
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.05,-0.003,0.1
53
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.03,-0.036,0.112
54
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.089,-0.005,0.196
55
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.046,-0.003,0.098
56
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.1,0.02,0.183
57
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.083,0.041,0.127
58
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.107,0.05,0.164
59
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.202,0.132,0.262
60
+ AutoETS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.241,0.162,0.316
61
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.256,0.456
62
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.583,-0.099,-0.177,-0.025
63
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.071,-0.176,0.018
64
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.062,-0.17,0.035
65
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.055,-0.139,0.024
66
  Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.002,-0.089,0.077
68
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.023,-0.108,0.048
69
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.039,-0.065,0.133
70
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,0.958,-0.007,-0.103,0.063
71
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.051,-0.107,0.186
72
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,0.958,0.032,-0.034,0.096
73
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,0.958,0.058,0.018,0.106
74
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.158,0.042,0.265
75
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.116,0.285
76
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.324,0.199,0.433
77
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.097,-0.144,-0.056
78
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.069,-0.144,0.009
79
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.059,-0.142,0.022
80
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.053,-0.111,0.003
81
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.002,-0.083,0.082
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
82
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.021,-0.102,0.059
84
+ AutoTheta,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.041,-0.014,0.136
85
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.005,-0.086,0.079
86
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.053,-0.043,0.132
87
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.034,-0.034,0.1
88
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.06,-0.011,0.123
89
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.16,0.076,0.236
90
+ AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.136,0.266
91
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.231,0.412
92
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.075,-0.156,-0.022
93
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.047,-0.154,0.032
94
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.038,-0.139,0.044
95
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.031,-0.126,0.035
96
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.022,-0.051,0.097
97
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.02,-0.063,0.093
98
+ AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.06,-0.052,0.172
100
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.016,-0.047,0.078
101
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.072,-0.036,0.171
102
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.054,-0.009,0.113
103
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.079,-0.006,0.156
104
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.177,0.068,0.264
105
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.217,0.128,0.295
106
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.256,0.422
107
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.144,-0.284,-0.054
108
+ Drift,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.115,-0.273,0.002
109
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.105,-0.282,0.024
110
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.098,-0.244,0.005
111
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.041,-0.153,0.061
112
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.043,-0.158,0.014
113
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.064,-0.208,0.05
114
+ Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.048,-0.227,0.071
116
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.012,-0.193,0.142
117
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.007,-0.119,0.086
118
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.02,-0.09,0.108
119
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.124,-0.064,0.234
120
+ Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.166,0.089,0.241
121
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.296,0.127,0.41
122
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.092,-0.167,-0.031
123
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.064,-0.122,-0.02
124
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.055,-0.11,-0.004
125
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.048,-0.109,0.003
126
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,0.007,-0.067,0.093
127
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.005,-0.086,0.079
128
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.016,-0.085,0.045
129
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.045,-0.076,0.185
130
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.057,-0.034,0.15
132
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.039,-0.007,0.091
133
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.064,-0.008,0.143
134
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.163,0.095,0.228
135
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.204,0.109,0.293
136
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.328,0.226,0.415
137
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.158,-0.271,-0.057
138
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.128,-0.241,-0.034
139
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.118,-0.241,-0.026
140
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.111,-0.224,-0.02
141
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.053,-0.228,0.097
142
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.056,-0.153,0.042
143
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.077,-0.207,0.035
144
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.012,-0.165,0.162
145
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.06,-0.177,0.033
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
146
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.019,-0.156,0.089
148
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.008,-0.146,0.14
149
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.113,0.02,0.191
150
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.156,0.023,0.274
151
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.181,0.389
152
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.136,-0.202,-0.073
153
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.107,-0.175,-0.053
154
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.167,-0.046
155
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.09,-0.145,-0.043
156
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,-0.033,-0.107,0.033
157
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.036,-0.112,0.033
158
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.057,-0.128,0.009
159
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.007,-0.094,0.106
160
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.04,-0.1,0.007
161
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.019,-0.097,0.135
162
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.026,-0.016,0.079
164
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.13,0.036,0.202
165
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.172,0.107,0.235
166
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.301,0.198,0.389
167
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.166,-0.245,-0.088
168
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.137,-0.24,-0.053
169
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.127,-0.229,-0.048
170
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.12,-0.196,-0.053
171
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.375,-0.061,-0.118,-0.018
172
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.064,-0.141,0.011
173
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.086,-0.185,0.006
174
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.02,-0.121,0.083
175
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.068,-0.166,0.008
176
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.008,-0.163,0.127
177
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.027,-0.086,0.015
178
+ Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.106,-0.0,0.194
180
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.15,0.086,0.21
181
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.282,0.162,0.388
182
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.305,-0.434,-0.185
183
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.272,-0.372,-0.176
184
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.261,-0.342,-0.184
185
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.253,-0.356,-0.153
186
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.187,-0.361,-0.044
187
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.19,-0.309,-0.083
188
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.215,-0.358,-0.073
189
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.141,-0.305,0.06
190
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.195,-0.296,-0.104
191
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.127,-0.237,-0.021
192
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.149,-0.254,-0.037
193
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.119,-0.24,0.0
194
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.049,-0.051,0.164
196
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.197,0.082,0.299
197
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.529,-0.242
198
+ Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.337,-0.504,-0.194
199
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.488,-0.189
200
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.317,-0.462,-0.193
201
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.398,-0.131
202
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.362,-0.157
203
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.277,-0.419,-0.147
204
+ Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.2,-0.318,-0.098
205
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.257,-0.415,-0.122
206
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.185,-0.377,-0.024
207
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.208,-0.307,-0.119
208
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.176,-0.265,-0.094
209
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.051,-0.197,0.049
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.156,0.021,0.261
212
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.625,-0.907,-0.407
213
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.584,-0.872,-0.353
214
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-0.821,-0.358
215
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.56,-0.837,-0.345
216
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.479,-0.763,-0.248
217
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.482,-0.7,-0.301
218
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.513,-0.73,-0.344
219
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.421,-0.694,-0.146
220
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.489,-0.709,-0.292
221
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.404,-0.637,-0.222
222
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.431,-0.638,-0.246
223
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.393,-0.634,-0.193
224
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.245,-0.427,-0.09
225
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.185,-0.353,-0.022
226
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_econ/pairwise_SQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.019,-0.006,0.042
4
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.035,-0.046,0.121
5
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.034,-0.005,0.066
6
- TiRex,AutoETS,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.059,0.031,0.083
7
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.089,0.048,0.145
8
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.102,0.039,0.177
9
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.088,0.037,0.151
10
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.13,0.037,0.246
11
- TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.144,0.1,0.19
12
- TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.156,0.105,0.209
13
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.159,0.116,0.216
14
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.237,0.361
15
- TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.212,0.389
16
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.459,0.384,0.538
17
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.02,-0.044,0.006
18
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.016,-0.071,0.099
20
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.015,-0.034,0.053
21
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.04,0.01,0.068
22
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.071,0.027,0.126
23
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.085,0.03,0.157
24
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.07,0.031,0.123
25
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.113,0.012,0.224
26
- Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.127,0.074,0.179
27
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.139,0.078,0.196
28
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.143,0.091,0.217
29
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.214,0.346
30
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.199,0.371
31
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.448,0.377,0.523
32
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.037,-0.138,0.044
33
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.017,-0.11,0.066
34
- Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.002,-0.068,0.05
36
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.024,-0.062,0.096
37
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.875,0.688,1.0,0.056,0.016,0.105
38
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.07,0.01,0.141
39
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.055,0.007,0.122
40
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.098,0.043,0.152
41
- Toto-1.0,Drift,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.113,0.047,0.169
42
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.125,0.052,0.187
43
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.128,0.023,0.225
44
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.158,0.381
45
- Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.177,0.381
46
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.372,0.505
47
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.035,-0.071,0.005
48
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.015,-0.056,0.033
49
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.002,-0.053,0.064
50
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.625,0.375,0.875,0.026,-0.006,0.061
52
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.057,0.018,0.101
53
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.071,0.004,0.139
54
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.056,-0.001,0.12
55
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.099,0.033,0.193
56
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.114,0.074,0.158
57
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.126,0.078,0.178
58
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.13,0.082,0.186
59
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.19,0.358
60
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.277,0.18,0.378
61
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.365,0.515
62
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.062,-0.091,-0.032
63
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.042,-0.073,-0.01
64
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.025,-0.106,0.058
65
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.375,0.125,0.625,-0.027,-0.065,0.006
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
66
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.032,-0.021,0.089
68
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.046,-0.015,0.11
69
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.031,-0.021,0.092
70
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.076,-0.024,0.189
71
- AutoETS,Drift,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.09,0.045,0.133
72
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.103,0.052,0.155
73
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.107,0.063,0.167
74
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.254,0.18,0.327
75
- AutoETS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.258,0.171,0.348
76
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.425,0.344,0.503
77
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.098,-0.17,-0.051
78
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.077,-0.144,-0.028
79
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.312,-0.059,-0.118,-0.016
80
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.061,-0.113,-0.018
81
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.034,-0.098,0.02
82
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.312,0.875,0.014,-0.031,0.067
84
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.312,0.875,-0.002,-0.036,0.03
85
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.045,-0.03,0.118
86
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.06,0.011,0.109
87
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.073,0.018,0.126
88
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.077,-0.011,0.152
89
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.143,0.31
90
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.148,0.319
91
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.349,0.463
92
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.114,-0.215,-0.041
93
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.093,-0.186,-0.031
94
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.075,-0.165,-0.01
95
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.076,-0.162,-0.004
96
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.049,-0.124,0.015
97
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.688,-0.014,-0.072,0.03
98
- Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.375,0.875,-0.016,-0.06,0.011
100
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.031,-0.089,0.127
101
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.046,-0.008,0.096
102
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.06,0.003,0.12
103
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.063,-0.05,0.167
104
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.134,0.293
105
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.222,0.159,0.291
106
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.33,0.457
107
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.096,-0.178,-0.039
108
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.075,-0.14,-0.032
109
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.058,-0.139,-0.008
110
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.059,-0.136,0.001
111
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.032,-0.101,0.021
112
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.688,0.002,-0.03,0.034
113
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.125,0.625,0.016,-0.011,0.057
114
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.046,-0.052,0.132
116
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.061,-0.002,0.119
117
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.074,0.004,0.142
118
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.078,-0.02,0.173
119
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.23,0.142,0.301
120
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.16,0.305
121
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.407,0.345,0.46
122
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.149,-0.326,-0.039
123
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.127,-0.289,-0.013
124
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.109,-0.179,-0.045
125
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.11,-0.239,-0.034
126
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.082,-0.233,0.023
127
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.047,-0.134,0.029
128
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.032,-0.145,0.081
129
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.048,-0.152,0.05
130
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.016,-0.111,0.118
132
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.03,-0.098,0.134
133
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.034,-0.126,0.133
134
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.193,0.04,0.327
135
- AutoARIMA,Naive,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.197,0.071,0.331
136
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.309,0.456
137
- Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.168,-0.235,-0.111
138
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.146,-0.218,-0.08
139
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.127,-0.203,-0.049
140
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.129,-0.187,-0.08
141
- Drift,AutoETS,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.099,-0.153,-0.047
142
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.064,-0.122,-0.011
143
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.049,-0.107,0.008
144
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.065,-0.135,0.002
145
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.016,-0.134,0.1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
146
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.014,-0.006,0.032
148
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.018,-0.059,0.091
149
- Drift,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.113,0.263
150
- Drift,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.184,0.101,0.272
151
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.287,0.448
152
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.185,-0.264,-0.117
153
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.162,-0.244,-0.085
154
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.143,-0.23,-0.055
155
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.145,-0.217,-0.085
156
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.115,-0.183,-0.055
157
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.079,-0.144,-0.018
158
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.063,-0.137,-0.003
159
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.08,-0.165,-0.004
160
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.031,-0.154,0.09
161
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.014,-0.033,0.006
162
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.004,-0.075,0.077
164
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.168,0.104,0.248
165
- AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.173,0.086,0.262
166
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.28,0.441
167
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.189,-0.275,-0.131
168
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.167,-0.278,-0.1
169
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.147,-0.29,-0.024
170
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.149,-0.229,-0.09
171
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.201,-0.067
172
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.083,-0.18,0.011
173
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.068,-0.2,0.048
174
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.085,-0.21,0.019
175
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.035,-0.153,0.112
176
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.018,-0.1,0.055
177
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.004,-0.084,0.07
178
- TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.165,0.071,0.255
180
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.169,0.038,0.288
181
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.356,0.248,0.457
182
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.424,-0.565,-0.31
183
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.396,-0.53,-0.272
184
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.373,-0.614,-0.188
185
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.376,-0.557,-0.235
186
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.34,-0.485,-0.22
187
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.297,-0.449,-0.167
188
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.278,-0.415,-0.155
189
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.43,-0.165
190
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.239,-0.486,-0.042
191
- Sundial-Base,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.219,-0.356,-0.128
192
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.202,-0.33,-0.116
193
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.197,-0.343,-0.077
194
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- Sundial-Base,Naive,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.006,-0.061,0.078
196
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.23,0.127,0.332
197
- Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.432,-0.636,-0.269
198
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.404,-0.589,-0.248
199
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.381,-0.615,-0.215
200
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.383,-0.608,-0.219
201
- Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.348,-0.535,-0.206
202
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.469,-0.174
203
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.285,-0.41,-0.189
204
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.306,-0.438,-0.191
205
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.246,-0.495,-0.077
206
- Naive,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.226,-0.374,-0.113
207
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.209,-0.355,-0.095
208
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.204,-0.405,-0.039
209
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.006,-0.085,0.057
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.812,1.0,0.225,0.143,0.295
212
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.848,-1.165,-0.623
213
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.813,-1.096,-0.604
214
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.783,-1.021,-0.592
215
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.786,-1.062,-0.574
216
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.74,-1.013,-0.523
217
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.683,-0.861,-0.535
218
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.659,-0.843,-0.492
219
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.686,-0.851,-0.528
220
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.608,-0.837,-0.447
221
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.582,-0.812,-0.403
222
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.56,-0.788,-0.39
223
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.554,-0.842,-0.33
224
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.498,-0.146
225
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.062,0.0,0.188,-0.291,-0.419,-0.167
226
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.007,-0.028,0.036
4
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.017,-0.034,0.06
5
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.071,-0.005,0.143
6
+ TiRex,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.127,0.025,0.268
7
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.08,0.038,0.122
8
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.094,0.019,0.181
9
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.093,0.05,0.141
10
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.099,0.031,0.166
11
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.128,0.063,0.197
12
+ TiRex,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.169,0.055,0.293
13
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.121,0.053,0.185
14
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.277,0.209,0.334
15
+ TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.213,0.382
16
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.282,0.467
17
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.007,-0.037,0.027
18
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.01,-0.042,0.051
20
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.064,-0.02,0.141
21
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.121,0.02,0.261
22
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.074,0.039,0.111
23
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.088,0.009,0.174
24
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.087,0.043,0.142
25
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.092,0.031,0.161
26
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.122,0.059,0.192
27
+ Chronos-2,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.163,0.036,0.303
28
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.115,0.046,0.178
29
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.215,0.324
30
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.202,0.388
31
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.286,0.457
32
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.017,-0.064,0.033
33
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.01,-0.053,0.04
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
34
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.055,-0.011,0.117
36
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.112,0.011,0.257
37
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.065,0.013,0.121
38
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.079,0.03,0.146
39
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.078,0.024,0.131
40
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.083,0.023,0.143
41
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.113,0.048,0.171
42
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.155,0.061,0.279
43
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.107,0.07,0.148
44
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.191,0.329
45
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.206,0.375
46
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.288,0.452
47
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.076,-0.167,0.005
48
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.069,-0.164,0.019
49
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.058,-0.133,0.011
50
+ Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.752,0.06,-0.086,0.229
52
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,0.958,0.01,-0.075,0.075
53
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.026,-0.06,0.101
54
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.024,-0.031,0.081
55
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.03,-0.103,0.146
56
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,0.958,0.062,0.022,0.109
57
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.106,-0.014,0.216
58
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.055,-0.028,0.135
59
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.222,0.115,0.321
60
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.248,0.157,0.335
61
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.335,0.216,0.435
62
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.145,-0.367,-0.025
63
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.137,-0.354,-0.02
64
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.126,-0.345,-0.012
65
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.248,0.75,-0.064,-0.297,0.08
66
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.053,-0.259,0.072
68
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.037,-0.271,0.112
69
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.039,-0.251,0.086
70
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.032,-0.263,0.102
71
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.001,-0.211,0.131
72
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.048,-0.2,0.237
73
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.006,-0.228,0.119
74
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.172,0.002,0.286
75
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.2,0.001,0.337
76
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.292,0.084,0.43
77
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.087,-0.139,-0.039
78
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.08,-0.124,-0.041
79
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.069,-0.137,-0.014
80
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,-0.01,-0.081,0.07
81
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.051,-0.077,0.205
82
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.015,-0.066,0.089
84
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.014,-0.034,0.072
85
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.02,-0.059,0.098
86
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.052,-0.014,0.127
87
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.097,-0.046,0.255
88
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.045,-0.043,0.116
89
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.214,0.15,0.272
90
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.24,0.136,0.34
91
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.328,0.224,0.407
92
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.104,-0.221,-0.019
93
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.097,-0.21,-0.009
94
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.086,-0.171,-0.031
95
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.026,-0.112,0.056
96
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.036,-0.126,0.213
97
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.016,-0.097,0.062
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
98
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.001,-0.08,0.069
100
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.005,-0.101,0.09
101
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.037,-0.064,0.125
102
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.082,-0.049,0.224
103
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.03,-0.058,0.107
104
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.201,0.09,0.294
105
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.228,0.128,0.322
106
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.317,0.242,0.396
107
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.103,-0.164,-0.052
108
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.095,-0.165,-0.044
109
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.084,-0.151,-0.024
110
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.025,-0.088,0.03
111
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.037,-0.094,0.201
112
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.014,-0.077,0.032
113
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.001,-0.074,0.074
114
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.006,-0.093,0.108
116
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.039,-0.001,0.09
117
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.084,-0.028,0.199
118
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.031,-0.044,0.102
119
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.202,0.109,0.273
120
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.158,0.296
121
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.318,0.219,0.402
122
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.109,-0.2,-0.031
123
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.102,-0.192,-0.032
124
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.091,-0.167,-0.023
125
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.031,-0.171,0.093
126
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.031,-0.114,0.208
127
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.02,-0.109,0.056
128
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.005,-0.099,0.092
129
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.006,-0.121,0.085
130
+ TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.033,-0.089,0.147
132
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.078,-0.057,0.251
133
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.025,-0.038,0.091
134
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.198,0.122,0.263
135
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.225,0.109,0.337
136
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.229,0.401
137
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.147,-0.245,-0.067
138
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.139,-0.237,-0.063
139
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.206,-0.05
140
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.375,-0.066,-0.123,-0.022
141
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.002,-0.151,0.175
142
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.055,-0.145,0.014
143
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.039,-0.142,0.06
144
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.04,-0.099,0.001
145
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.034,-0.173,0.082
146
+ Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.047,-0.076,0.17
148
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.008,-0.087,0.069
149
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.17,0.072,0.253
150
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.199,0.12,0.272
151
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.291,0.176,0.391
152
+ Drift,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.204,-0.414,-0.058
153
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.195,-0.435,-0.037
154
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.183,-0.386,-0.065
155
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.119,-0.276,0.014
156
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.051,-0.31,0.166
157
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.107,-0.342,0.044
158
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.09,-0.289,0.047
159
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.091,-0.248,0.027
160
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.085,-0.334,0.054
161
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.049,-0.204,0.07
162
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,0.917,-0.057,-0.232,0.028
164
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.13,-0.097,0.26
165
+ Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.082,0.234
166
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.256,0.054,0.378
167
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.138,-0.227,-0.056
168
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.13,-0.217,-0.048
169
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.119,-0.173,-0.075
170
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.058,-0.156,0.027
171
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.006,-0.136,0.186
172
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.047,-0.131,0.041
173
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.031,-0.12,0.055
174
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.032,-0.114,0.042
175
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.026,-0.101,0.037
176
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.008,-0.075,0.08
177
+ AutoTheta,Drift,0.25,0.083,0.5,0.054,-0.029,0.188
178
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.177,0.099,0.254
180
+ AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.205,0.128,0.291
181
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.216,0.375
182
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.383,-0.501,-0.264
183
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.373,-0.48,-0.274
184
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.36,-0.49,-0.236
185
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.285,-0.472,-0.13
186
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.207,-0.401,-0.002
187
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.272,-0.374,-0.176
188
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.252,-0.417,-0.099
189
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.254,-0.376,-0.123
190
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.246,-0.357,-0.139
191
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.205,-0.339,-0.077
192
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.149,-0.351,0.088
193
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.215,-0.341,-0.11
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
194
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.034,-0.089,0.177
196
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.145,0.018,0.25
197
+ Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.619,-0.27
198
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.633,-0.253
199
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.6,-0.259
200
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.33,-0.503,-0.186
201
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.25,-0.508,-0.001
202
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.316,-0.515,-0.157
203
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.296,-0.475,-0.146
204
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.42,-0.188
205
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.29,-0.508,-0.122
206
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.248,-0.374,-0.137
207
+ Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.305,-0.089
208
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.257,-0.41,-0.146
209
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.035,-0.215,0.082
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.115,-0.055,0.229
212
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.877,-0.392
213
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.842,-0.401
214
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.824,-0.404
215
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.503,-0.771,-0.275
216
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.412,-0.755,-0.091
217
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.487,-0.686,-0.288
218
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.465,-0.656,-0.319
219
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.467,-0.673,-0.28
220
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.668,-0.296
221
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.41,-0.643,-0.214
222
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.344,-0.607,-0.057
223
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.599,-0.275
224
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.17,-0.333,-0.019
225
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.13,-0.297,0.052
226
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.032,-0.035,0.102
4
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.028,-0.002,0.062
5
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.055,0.022,0.089
6
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.044,0.002,0.085
7
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.11,0.011,0.236
8
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.093,0.02,0.179
9
- TiRex,AutoETS,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.086,0.033,0.143
10
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.152,0.09,0.215
11
- TiRex,Drift,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.173,0.077,0.276
12
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,0.878,0.08,0.008,0.148
13
- TiRex,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.185,0.087,0.288
14
- TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.107,0.432
15
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.28,0.184,0.369
16
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.345,0.563
17
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.033,-0.113,0.034
18
- Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.004,-0.072,0.077
20
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.625,0.25,0.878,0.024,-0.024,0.073
21
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.375,0.875,0.012,-0.061,0.076
22
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.688,1.0,0.081,0.012,0.171
23
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,0.938,0.063,0.018,0.114
24
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.056,0.013,0.106
25
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.123,0.023,0.214
26
- Toto-1.0,Drift,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.145,0.054,0.226
27
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.05,-0.066,0.128
28
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.158,0.067,0.238
29
- Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.248,0.089,0.39
30
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.159,0.335
31
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.354,0.533
32
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.029,-0.066,0.002
33
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.004,-0.083,0.067
34
- Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.027,-0.01,0.058
36
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.016,-0.035,0.069
37
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.25,0.878,0.084,-0.019,0.205
38
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.067,-0.01,0.143
39
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.059,0.019,0.105
40
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.127,0.033,0.216
41
- Chronos-2,Drift,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.148,0.041,0.25
42
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.053,-0.028,0.123
43
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.161,0.051,0.261
44
- Chronos-2,Naive,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.25,0.076,0.41
45
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.161,0.347
46
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.454,0.32,0.553
47
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.058,-0.097,-0.022
48
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.122,0.75,-0.024,-0.078,0.024
49
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.028,-0.062,0.01
50
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.011,-0.05,0.027
52
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.059,-0.022,0.18
53
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.041,-0.016,0.119
54
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.033,-0.001,0.078
55
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.102,0.013,0.194
56
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.125,0.025,0.224
57
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.027,-0.047,0.081
58
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.137,0.03,0.238
59
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.043,0.39
60
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.238,0.137,0.328
61
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.32,0.532
62
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.046,-0.093,-0.002
63
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.125,0.625,-0.012,-0.082,0.058
64
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.016,-0.074,0.034
65
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.011,-0.028,0.048
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
66
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.188,0.812,0.069,-0.02,0.209
68
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.312,0.875,0.052,-0.011,0.149
69
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.044,-0.025,0.118
70
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.112,0.02,0.209
71
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.134,0.026,0.246
72
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.038,-0.014,0.079
73
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.147,0.036,0.262
74
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.238,0.051,0.413
75
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.145,0.343
76
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.445,0.329,0.541
77
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.124,-0.309,-0.012
78
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.312,-0.088,-0.207,-0.012
79
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.375,0.122,0.75,-0.092,-0.259,0.019
80
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.062,-0.219,0.022
81
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.188,0.812,-0.074,-0.264,0.02
82
- Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.375,0.875,-0.019,-0.077,0.012
84
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.027,-0.126,0.045
85
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.046,-0.136,0.187
86
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.07,0.008,0.14
87
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.375,1.0,-0.034,-0.273,0.081
88
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.084,0.018,0.161
89
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.181,0.051,0.286
90
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.102,0.276
91
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.311,0.486
92
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.103,-0.218,-0.021
93
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.062,0.5,-0.068,-0.128,-0.019
94
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.072,-0.167,0.01
95
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.042,-0.135,0.015
96
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.688,-0.054,-0.175,0.011
97
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.125,0.625,0.019,-0.013,0.071
98
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.008,-0.053,0.036
100
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.064,-0.065,0.18
101
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.087,0.018,0.151
102
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.375,1.0,-0.015,-0.186,0.076
103
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.101,0.03,0.172
104
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.197,0.044,0.318
105
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.206,0.126,0.284
106
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.315,0.497
107
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.094,-0.167,-0.034
108
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.059,-0.119,-0.013
109
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.063,-0.117,-0.019
110
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.034,-0.085,0.001
111
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.046,-0.134,0.025
112
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.027,-0.047,0.112
113
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.008,-0.038,0.05
114
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.072,-0.04,0.176
116
- AutoETS,Drift,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.095,0.01,0.173
117
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,0.875,-0.006,-0.136,0.078
118
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.108,0.02,0.19
119
- AutoETS,Naive,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.203,0.028,0.345
120
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.212,0.12,0.291
121
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.301,0.513
122
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.179,-0.274,-0.099
123
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.141,-0.272,-0.023
124
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.145,-0.276,-0.034
125
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.114,-0.241,-0.013
126
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.127,-0.264,-0.02
127
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.049,-0.23,0.12
128
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.069,-0.22,0.061
129
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.077,-0.214,0.038
130
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.025,-0.108,0.146
132
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.084,-0.235,0.05
133
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.039,-0.084,0.157
134
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.142,-0.026,0.327
135
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.152,0.046,0.252
136
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.375,0.244,0.48
137
- Drift,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.209,-0.38,-0.083
138
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.17,-0.292,-0.057
139
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.174,-0.333,-0.043
140
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.142,-0.289,-0.025
141
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.155,-0.326,-0.027
142
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.075,-0.163,-0.008
143
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.096,-0.178,-0.018
144
- Drift,AutoETS,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.105,-0.21,-0.01
145
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.025,-0.172,0.098
146
- Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,1.0,-0.112,-0.342,0.039
148
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.015,0.005,0.026
149
- Drift,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.12,0.021,0.215
150
- Drift,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.13,0.076,0.181
151
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.283,0.426
152
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.375,0.122,0.75,-0.087,-0.173,-0.008
153
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.052,-0.147,0.062
154
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.056,-0.14,0.028
155
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.028,-0.089,0.045
156
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.039,-0.086,0.014
157
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.625,0.033,-0.089,0.215
158
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.625,0.014,-0.083,0.157
159
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.375,0.125,0.75,0.006,-0.085,0.12
160
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.078,-0.052,0.19
161
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.375,0.0,0.75,0.1,-0.041,0.255
162
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.375,0.0,0.75,0.114,-0.035,0.267
164
- AutoARIMA,Naive,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.208,-0.015,0.416
165
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.217,0.079,0.347
166
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.424,0.289,0.534
167
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.227,-0.404,-0.095
168
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.187,-0.312,-0.072
169
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.192,-0.354,-0.054
170
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.159,-0.312,-0.031
171
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.173,-0.354,-0.037
172
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.091,-0.192,-0.019
173
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.112,-0.207,-0.031
174
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.121,-0.234,-0.021
175
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.041,-0.186,0.077
176
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.015,-0.027,-0.005
177
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,1.0,-0.128,-0.364,0.034
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
178
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- AutoTheta,Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.107,0.014,0.202
180
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.117,0.063,0.17
181
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.272,0.417
182
- Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.373,-0.76,-0.12
183
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.329,-0.641,-0.097
184
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.334,-0.695,-0.082
185
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.64,-0.045
186
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.313,-0.702,-0.054
187
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.222,-0.402,-0.054
188
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.245,-0.467,-0.046
189
- Naive,AutoETS,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.255,-0.526,-0.029
190
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.165,-0.487,0.025
191
- Naive,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.136,-0.273,-0.021
192
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.263,-0.713,0.014
193
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.119,-0.253,-0.014
194
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.012,-0.134,0.122
196
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.812,1.0,0.272,0.17,0.364
197
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.389,-0.584,-0.225
198
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.345,-0.504,-0.189
199
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.531,-0.191
200
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.313,-0.488,-0.158
201
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.328,-0.521,-0.17
202
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.236,-0.382,-0.113
203
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.259,-0.397,-0.144
204
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.411,-0.137
205
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.179,-0.338,-0.049
206
- Sundial-Base,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.149,-0.22,-0.082
207
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.278,-0.532,-0.086
208
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.132,-0.204,-0.067
209
- Sundial-Base,Naive,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.012,-0.139,0.118
210
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.155,0.342
212
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.886,-1.288,-0.526
213
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.826,-1.143,-0.548
214
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.833,-1.236,-0.47
215
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.783,-1.139,-0.471
216
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.803,-1.18,-0.49
217
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.678,-0.946,-0.452
218
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.71,-0.99,-0.46
219
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.724,-1.054,-0.43
220
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.601,-0.922,-0.324
221
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.561,-0.741,-0.394
222
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.735,-1.146,-0.406
223
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.538,-0.715,-0.374
224
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.062,0.0,0.188,-0.374,-0.573,-0.205
225
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.358,-0.52,-0.183
226
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.007,-0.118,0.073
4
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.019,-0.026,0.055
5
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.057,-0.013,0.132
6
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.029,-0.01,0.066
7
+ TiRex,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.045,-0.022,0.113
8
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.053,-0.079,0.157
9
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.032,-0.075,0.116
10
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.043,0.176
11
+ TiRex,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.13,-0.069,0.279
12
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.132,0.04,0.235
13
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.087,-0.092,0.23
14
+ TiRex,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.26,0.135,0.394
15
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.243,0.154,0.322
16
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.378,0.252,0.503
17
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.007,-0.079,0.105
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
18
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.026,-0.052,0.124
20
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.064,-0.026,0.153
21
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.036,-0.044,0.138
22
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.051,0.006,0.104
23
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.059,-0.02,0.135
24
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.038,-0.015,0.077
25
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.111,0.016,0.202
26
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.136,0.017,0.263
27
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.138,0.035,0.235
28
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.093,0.006,0.186
29
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.265,0.136,0.387
30
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.248,0.146,0.339
31
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.284,0.478
32
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.019,-0.059,0.025
33
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.026,-0.142,0.05
34
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.039,-0.05,0.132
36
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.01,-0.025,0.05
37
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.026,-0.04,0.085
38
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.035,-0.112,0.148
39
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.013,-0.106,0.11
40
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.087,0.014,0.175
41
+ Chronos-2,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.114,-0.101,0.291
42
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.115,0.018,0.219
43
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.07,-0.127,0.214
44
+ Chronos-2,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.246,0.102,0.391
45
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.153,0.304
46
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.366,0.237,0.489
47
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.061,-0.152,0.013
48
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.068,-0.181,0.025
49
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.041,-0.152,0.047
50
+ Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.03,-0.14,0.051
52
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.013,-0.1,0.063
53
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.005,-0.164,0.134
54
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.027,-0.14,0.072
55
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.542,0.958,0.05,0.006,0.092
56
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.077,-0.097,0.197
57
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,1.0,0.079,0.026,0.142
58
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.032,-0.139,0.166
59
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.104,0.331
60
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.197,0.07,0.294
61
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.34,0.203,0.463
62
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.03,-0.071,0.01
63
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.037,-0.161,0.042
64
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.011,-0.052,0.025
65
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.029,-0.054,0.123
66
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.016,-0.058,0.087
68
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.024,-0.121,0.142
69
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.002,-0.108,0.082
70
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.078,0.002,0.167
71
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.104,-0.116,0.272
72
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.106,0.001,0.216
73
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.06,-0.138,0.209
74
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.238,0.088,0.384
75
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.221,0.142,0.296
76
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.359,0.235,0.479
77
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.047,-0.127,0.022
78
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.054,-0.115,-0.006
79
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.027,-0.093,0.039
80
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.013,-0.067,0.091
81
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.016,-0.095,0.055
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
82
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.75,0.008,-0.094,0.112
84
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.014,-0.108,0.063
85
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.063,-0.003,0.135
86
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.09,-0.071,0.231
87
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.092,0.012,0.167
88
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.044,-0.086,0.148
89
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.225,0.099,0.346
90
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.208,0.127,0.279
91
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.248,0.455
92
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.056,-0.187,0.073
93
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.063,-0.156,0.019
94
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.036,-0.174,0.101
95
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.005,-0.155,0.141
96
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.025,-0.165,0.108
97
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.583,0.25,0.833,-0.009,-0.126,0.086
98
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.023,-0.135,0.081
100
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.055,-0.107,0.185
101
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.082,-0.067,0.234
102
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.084,-0.089,0.226
103
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.036,-0.065,0.138
104
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.219,0.073,0.351
105
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.201,0.088,0.308
106
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.242,0.437
107
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.033,-0.131,0.07
108
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.04,-0.084,0.014
109
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.013,-0.124,0.096
110
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.027,-0.077,0.123
111
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.003,-0.089,0.098
112
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.014,-0.067,0.097
113
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.022,-0.089,0.119
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
114
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.076,-0.037,0.184
116
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.102,-0.037,0.249
117
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.104,-0.025,0.23
118
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.057,-0.064,0.19
119
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,0.75,0.5,0.917,0.236,0.084,0.383
120
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.219,0.084,0.33
121
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.24,0.471
122
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.213,-0.045
123
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.125,-0.253,-0.016
124
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.096,-0.213,-0.014
125
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.458,-0.053,-0.101,-0.006
126
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.084,-0.2,-0.002
127
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.067,-0.156,0.003
128
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.058,-0.227,0.097
129
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.082,-0.226,0.035
130
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.029,-0.15,0.149
132
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.031,-0.022,0.094
133
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.02,-0.201,0.115
134
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.174,0.068,0.284
135
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.155,0.026,0.239
136
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.305,0.17,0.432
137
+ Drift,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.15,-0.388,0.065
138
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.158,-0.356,-0.017
139
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.128,-0.41,0.092
140
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.084,-0.246,0.088
141
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.116,-0.374,0.104
142
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.098,-0.3,0.066
143
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.089,-0.305,0.063
144
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.114,-0.332,0.036
145
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.029,-0.175,0.13
146
+ Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.002,-0.146,0.163
148
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.05,-0.184,0.016
149
+ Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.149,0.045,0.251
150
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.13,-0.09,0.296
151
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.284,0.11,0.391
152
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.152,-0.307,-0.042
153
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.16,-0.308,-0.037
154
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.131,-0.281,-0.018
155
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.375,-0.086,-0.166,-0.027
156
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.119,-0.275,-0.001
157
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.101,-0.201,-0.012
158
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.091,-0.291,0.082
159
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.116,-0.299,0.024
160
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.032,-0.104,0.022
161
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.002,-0.195,0.127
162
+ Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.052,-0.228,0.084
164
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.147,0.051,0.248
165
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.128,-0.003,0.227
166
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.283,0.152,0.405
167
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.096,-0.299,0.084
168
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.103,-0.229,-0.006
169
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.075,-0.273,0.113
170
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.033,-0.199,0.122
171
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.064,-0.263,0.122
172
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.046,-0.174,0.079
173
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.038,-0.16,0.061
174
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.061,-0.235,0.061
175
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.019,-0.13,0.167
176
+ AutoTheta,Drift,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.047,-0.016,0.156
177
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.049,-0.092,0.186
178
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoTheta,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.189,0.084,0.29
180
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.171,0.057,0.303
181
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.237,0.391
182
+ Naive,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.352,-0.649,-0.156
183
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.361,-0.631,-0.157
184
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.326,-0.642,-0.113
185
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.274,-0.494,-0.116
186
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.312,-0.623,-0.097
187
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.291,-0.53,-0.11
188
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.28,-0.54,-0.079
189
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.083,0.5,-0.309,-0.62,-0.092
190
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.21,-0.396,-0.073
191
+ Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.176,-0.335,-0.047
192
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.173,-0.33,-0.053
193
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.234,-0.408,-0.092
194
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.023,-0.218,0.11
196
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.159,0.001,0.281
197
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.322,-0.476,-0.182
198
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.331,-0.513,-0.171
199
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.297,-0.436,-0.181
200
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.246,-0.416,-0.075
201
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.283,-0.421,-0.165
202
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.262,-0.386,-0.145
203
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.252,-0.445,-0.097
204
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.28,-0.493,-0.091
205
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.183,-0.315,-0.026
206
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.149,-0.421,0.082
207
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.147,-0.294,0.002
208
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.206,-0.435,-0.061
209
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.022,-0.123,0.179
210
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.177,0.057,0.284
212
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.607,-1.014,-0.337
213
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-0.915,-0.396
214
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.576,-0.957,-0.311
215
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.514,-0.863,-0.255
216
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.56,-0.92,-0.308
217
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.834,-0.33
218
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.522,-0.775,-0.319
219
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.556,-0.891,-0.315
220
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.438,-0.76,-0.205
221
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.397,-0.643,-0.124
222
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.394,-0.681,-0.179
223
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.467,-0.643,-0.311
224
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.189,-0.391,-0.001
225
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.216,-0.396,-0.06
226
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.035,-0.022,0.094
4
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.125,0.75,0.031,-0.002,0.07
5
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.049,0.013,0.083
6
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.116,0.02,0.244
7
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.089,0.026,0.167
8
- TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.11,0.065,0.159
9
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.141,0.085,0.196
10
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.141,0.083,0.218
11
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.185,0.084,0.309
12
- TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.28,0.184,0.38
13
- TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.183,0.394
14
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.321,0.218,0.415
15
- TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.225,0.504
16
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.519,0.402,0.614
17
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.037,-0.103,0.021
18
- Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.004,-0.062,0.064
20
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.375,0.875,0.015,-0.043,0.068
21
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.688,1.0,0.083,0.014,0.179
22
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.688,1.0,0.055,0.021,0.096
23
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.077,0.039,0.119
24
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.11,0.034,0.182
25
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.109,0.047,0.177
26
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.156,0.024,0.276
27
- Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.254,0.184,0.323
28
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.183,0.338
29
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.202,0.378
30
- Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.222,0.462
31
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.502,0.406,0.578
32
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.875,-0.032,-0.075,0.002
33
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.004,-0.068,0.058
34
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.018,-0.03,0.067
36
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.25,0.878,0.087,-0.005,0.199
37
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.497,1.0,0.059,-0.007,0.121
38
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.081,0.046,0.113
39
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.113,0.037,0.187
40
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.113,0.046,0.202
41
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.159,0.034,0.29
42
- Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.158,0.352
43
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.265,0.156,0.367
44
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.201,0.39
45
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.203,0.477
46
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.504,0.375,0.601
47
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.052,-0.09,-0.013
48
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.125,0.625,-0.015,-0.073,0.042
49
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.019,-0.072,0.029
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
50
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.188,0.812,0.07,-0.014,0.203
52
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.312,0.875,0.041,-0.015,0.124
53
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.064,0.002,0.121
54
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.097,0.023,0.179
55
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.096,0.036,0.166
56
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.143,0.048,0.256
57
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.151,0.344
58
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.251,0.15,0.356
59
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.181,0.384
60
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.334,0.193,0.475
61
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.494,0.383,0.589
62
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.131,-0.323,-0.02
63
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.312,-0.091,-0.217,-0.014
64
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.375,0.122,0.75,-0.095,-0.249,0.005
65
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.188,0.812,-0.075,-0.255,0.014
66
- Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.312,0.875,-0.031,-0.102,0.01
68
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.007,-0.119,0.071
69
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.029,-0.132,0.151
70
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.028,-0.154,0.148
71
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.079,-0.192,0.249
72
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.186,0.129,0.249
73
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.195,0.128,0.265
74
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.156,0.313
75
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.195,0.368
76
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.362,0.537
77
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.097,-0.201,-0.026
78
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.312,-0.059,-0.106,-0.021
79
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.503,-0.063,-0.138,0.007
80
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.688,-0.043,-0.142,0.015
81
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.125,0.688,0.03,-0.01,0.093
82
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.023,-0.025,0.07
84
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.058,-0.035,0.148
85
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.057,-0.05,0.151
86
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.106,-0.078,0.249
87
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.21,0.149,0.272
88
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.219,0.145,0.293
89
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.176,0.33
90
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.305,0.192,0.412
91
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.472,0.376,0.553
92
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.189,-0.069
93
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.084,-0.135,-0.041
94
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.088,-0.127,-0.048
95
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.068,-0.138,-0.002
96
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.007,-0.076,0.106
97
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.024,-0.076,0.024
98
- AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.0,0.75,0.036,-0.051,0.126
100
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.035,-0.041,0.122
101
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.085,-0.071,0.226
102
- AutoETS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.096,0.278
103
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.096,0.293
104
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.238,0.127,0.331
105
- AutoETS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.138,0.422
106
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.46,0.335,0.555
107
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.165,-0.243,-0.093
108
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.124,-0.223,-0.035
109
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.128,-0.23,-0.039
110
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.107,-0.217,-0.023
111
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.03,-0.178,0.117
112
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.061,-0.173,0.034
113
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.625,0.25,1.0,-0.037,-0.144,0.049
114
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.001,-0.128,0.13
116
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.051,-0.107,0.222
117
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.162,0.046,0.279
118
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.171,0.05,0.292
119
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.21,0.119,0.306
120
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.263,0.122,0.415
121
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.317,0.549
122
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.164,-0.278,-0.091
123
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.123,-0.214,-0.049
124
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.127,-0.253,-0.048
125
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.106,-0.199,-0.037
126
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.029,-0.174,0.133
127
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.06,-0.178,0.048
128
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.036,-0.14,0.039
129
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.001,-0.149,0.113
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.052,-0.027,0.119
132
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.162,0.069,0.266
133
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.171,0.071,0.278
134
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.21,0.053,0.333
135
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.096,0.424
136
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.321,0.534
137
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.228,-0.446,-0.091
138
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.184,-0.38,-0.024
139
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.189,-0.408,-0.035
140
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.167,-0.345,-0.05
141
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.086,-0.332,0.161
142
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.119,-0.331,0.073
143
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.093,-0.293,0.067
144
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.054,-0.285,0.097
145
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.055,-0.135,0.027
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.116,-0.034,0.285
148
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.126,-0.03,0.293
149
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.167,-0.05,0.347
150
- AutoARIMA,Naive,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.223,-0.005,0.436
151
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.41,0.275,0.532
152
- Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.389,-0.613,-0.226
153
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.34,-0.478,-0.226
154
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.345,-0.543,-0.187
155
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.321,-0.525,-0.178
156
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.228,-0.331,-0.147
157
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.266,-0.374,-0.175
158
- Drift,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.237,-0.386,-0.106
159
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.193,-0.387,-0.048
160
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.194,-0.363,-0.075
161
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.131,-0.398,0.033
162
- Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.011,-0.011,0.031
164
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.057,-0.048,0.135
165
- Drift,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.121,0.02,0.215
166
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.256,0.392
167
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.404,-0.65,-0.223
168
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.355,-0.511,-0.224
169
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.36,-0.58,-0.184
170
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.335,-0.554,-0.176
171
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.242,-0.361,-0.147
172
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.28,-0.415,-0.169
173
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.25,-0.414,-0.107
174
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.206,-0.411,-0.053
175
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.207,-0.384,-0.076
176
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.144,-0.414,0.029
177
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.011,-0.032,0.011
178
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.047,-0.056,0.12
180
- AutoTheta,Naive,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.111,0.028,0.201
181
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.26,0.38
182
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.474,-0.71,-0.278
183
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.422,-0.608,-0.252
184
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-0.64,-0.251
185
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.401,-0.623,-0.221
186
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.456,-0.184
187
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.492,-0.213
188
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.312,-0.495,-0.146
189
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.265,-0.441,-0.135
190
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.266,-0.499,-0.056
191
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.2,-0.532,0.047
192
- Sundial-Base,Drift,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.061,-0.156,0.046
193
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.049,-0.136,0.053
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
194
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- Sundial-Base,Naive,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.067,-0.024,0.165
196
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.291,0.193,0.391
197
- Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.579,-1.015,-0.29
198
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.524,-0.858,-0.286
199
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.53,-0.912,-0.255
200
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.502,-0.904,-0.239
201
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.397,-0.581,-0.242
202
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.439,-0.701,-0.237
203
- Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.406,-0.729,-0.161
204
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.356,-0.71,-0.139
205
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.357,-0.736,-0.106
206
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.286,-0.774,0.005
207
- Naive,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.137,-0.274,-0.02
208
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.125,-0.251,-0.028
209
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.072,-0.198,0.024
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.812,1.0,0.241,0.149,0.32
212
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.08,-1.59,-0.671
213
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.006,-1.368,-0.685
214
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.014,-1.503,-0.6
215
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.977,-1.43,-0.62
216
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.839,-1.161,-0.569
217
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.895,-1.235,-0.603
218
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.852,-1.246,-0.504
219
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.786,-1.217,-0.464
220
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.787,-1.148,-0.473
221
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.694,-1.137,-0.379
222
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.497,-0.645,-0.344
223
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.481,-0.612,-0.352
224
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.411,-0.643,-0.239
225
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.062,0.0,0.188,-0.317,-0.47,-0.175
226
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.019,-0.029,0.058
4
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.065,0.009,0.127
5
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.047,0.005,0.084
6
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.062,-0.038,0.149
7
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.066,-0.055,0.161
8
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.102,0.047,0.167
9
+ TiRex,AutoETS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.084,0.017,0.145
10
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.138,0.051,0.236
11
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.117,-0.008,0.227
12
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.183,0.017,0.322
13
+ TiRex,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.24,0.039,0.386
14
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.298,0.205,0.38
15
+ TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.221,0.471
16
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.287,0.546
17
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.02,-0.062,0.028
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
18
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.047,-0.03,0.132
20
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.028,-0.008,0.061
21
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.043,-0.066,0.134
22
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.048,-0.082,0.141
23
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.084,0.014,0.167
24
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.066,0.004,0.112
25
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.122,0.031,0.22
26
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.099,-0.035,0.22
27
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.167,-0.006,0.299
28
+ Chronos-2,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.225,0.01,0.391
29
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.209,0.358
30
+ Chronos-2,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.334,0.191,0.471
31
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.41,0.281,0.527
32
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.069,-0.145,-0.009
33
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.049,-0.152,0.029
34
+ Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.02,-0.115,0.049
36
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.004,-0.135,0.114
37
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.001,-0.133,0.109
38
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.039,0.004,0.074
39
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.021,-0.071,0.095
40
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.079,0.025,0.148
41
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.055,-0.086,0.182
42
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.126,-0.046,0.264
43
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.187,-0.005,0.316
44
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.249,0.132,0.337
45
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.301,0.189,0.415
46
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.381,0.238,0.505
47
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.049,-0.092,-0.005
48
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.029,-0.064,0.008
49
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.052,0.103
50
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.016,-0.106,0.118
52
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.021,-0.12,0.113
53
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.058,-0.015,0.143
54
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.04,-0.045,0.104
55
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.096,-0.002,0.206
56
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.074,-0.073,0.186
57
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.143,-0.049,0.286
58
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.203,-0.028,0.375
59
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.182,0.346
60
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.315,0.161,0.458
61
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.393,0.257,0.517
62
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.066,-0.175,0.037
63
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.045,-0.154,0.062
64
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.004,-0.129,0.119
65
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.016,-0.134,0.096
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
66
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.005,-0.084,0.091
68
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.043,-0.082,0.159
69
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.024,-0.064,0.095
70
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.082,-0.067,0.207
71
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.059,-0.057,0.177
72
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.129,0.023,0.236
73
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.19,0.03,0.353
74
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.154,0.347
75
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.304,0.18,0.427
76
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.282,0.484
77
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.071,-0.192,0.052
78
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.05,-0.164,0.076
79
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.001,-0.123,0.117
80
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.021,-0.127,0.107
81
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.005,-0.1,0.077
82
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.038,-0.083,0.155
84
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.068,0.095
85
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.077,-0.064,0.201
86
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.054,-0.0,0.099
87
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.037,0.224
88
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.186,0.041,0.338
89
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.248,0.115,0.362
90
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.159,0.433
91
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.283,0.482
92
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.113,-0.2,-0.049
93
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.092,-0.2,-0.014
94
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.041,-0.079,-0.004
95
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.061,-0.167,0.014
96
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.045,-0.189,0.075
97
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.04,-0.184,0.077
98
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.019,-0.125,0.057
100
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.041,-0.012,0.105
101
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.017,-0.147,0.157
102
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.09,-0.083,0.223
103
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.154,-0.033,0.28
104
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.218,0.093,0.302
105
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.273,0.167,0.374
106
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.355,0.212,0.48
107
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.092,-0.169,-0.018
108
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.071,-0.126,-0.004
109
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.021,-0.105,0.066
110
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.041,-0.116,0.043
111
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.025,-0.104,0.06
112
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.02,-0.105,0.064
113
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.06,0.111
114
+ AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.059,-0.034,0.15
116
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.035,-0.082,0.151
117
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.108,-0.026,0.227
118
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.17,-0.016,0.334
119
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.138,0.322
120
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.287,0.148,0.417
121
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.368,0.243,0.486
122
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.161,-0.309,-0.053
123
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.138,-0.282,-0.032
124
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.085,-0.173,-0.026
125
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.107,-0.259,0.002
126
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.089,-0.262,0.063
127
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.084,-0.251,0.061
128
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.043,-0.118,0.012
129
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.063,-0.177,0.033
130
+ Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.025,-0.226,0.141
132
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.051,-0.119,0.187
133
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.118,-0.083,0.257
134
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.185,0.061,0.279
135
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.242,0.127,0.337
136
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.328,0.183,0.456
137
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.132,-0.294,0.008
138
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.11,-0.282,0.034
139
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.059,-0.222,0.079
140
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.079,-0.228,0.068
141
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.062,-0.215,0.054
142
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.057,-0.109,0.0
143
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.017,-0.187,0.128
144
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.037,-0.178,0.076
145
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.025,-0.164,0.185
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.075,-0.043,0.214
148
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.139,-0.024,0.304
149
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.205,0.026,0.344
150
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.26,0.092,0.423
151
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.225,0.467
152
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.224,-0.476,-0.017
153
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.2,-0.426,0.006
154
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.144,-0.358,0.044
155
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.167,-0.401,0.046
156
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.148,-0.309,-0.024
157
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.289,-0.038
158
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.099,-0.286,0.076
159
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.12,-0.293,0.025
160
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.054,-0.229,0.106
161
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.081,-0.273,0.041
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
162
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ AutoTheta,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.07,-0.028,0.226
164
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.141,0.015,0.293
165
+ AutoTheta,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.201,0.088,0.318
166
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.291,0.222,0.357
167
+ Drift,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.315,-0.628,-0.04
168
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.29,-0.643,-0.01
169
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.23,-0.461,0.005
170
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.254,-0.6,0.027
171
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.234,-0.546,-0.031
172
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.228,-0.511,-0.043
173
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.182,-0.389,0.032
174
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.205,-0.5,0.015
175
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.133,-0.347,0.076
176
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.162,-0.437,0.023
177
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.075,-0.292,0.027
178
+ Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.076,-0.217,0.284
180
+ Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.141,0.034,0.242
181
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.238,0.002,0.366
182
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.424,-0.613,-0.258
183
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.397,-0.557,-0.264
184
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.332,-0.509,-0.153
185
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.358,-0.528,-0.222
186
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.532,-0.181
187
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.33,-0.567,-0.13
188
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.279,-0.433,-0.103
189
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.474,-0.159
190
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.227,-0.387,-0.066
191
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.258,-0.524,-0.027
192
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.164,-0.415,-0.015
193
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.083,-0.397,0.178
194
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.07,-0.096,0.23
196
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.175,0.01,0.298
197
+ Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.53,-0.889,-0.283
198
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.501,-0.89,-0.236
199
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.431,-0.708,-0.233
200
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.459,-0.846,-0.192
201
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.436,-0.746,-0.219
202
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.429,-0.765,-0.19
203
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.375,-0.598,-0.2
204
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.402,-0.715,-0.174
205
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.319,-0.508,-0.145
206
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.352,-0.732,-0.102
207
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.251,-0.466,-0.096
208
+ Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.164,-0.32,-0.035
209
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.075,-0.298,0.087
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.114,-0.095,0.248
212
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.727,-1.204,-0.402
213
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.694,-1.116,-0.391
214
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.615,-1.022,-0.312
215
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.647,-1.071,-0.346
216
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.938,-0.393
217
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.613,-0.931,-0.394
218
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.551,-0.924,-0.269
219
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.581,-0.947,-0.321
220
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.488,-0.838,-0.223
221
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.525,-0.875,-0.291
222
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.411,-0.556,-0.286
223
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.313,-0.578,-0.002
224
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.213,-0.424,-0.01
225
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.128,-0.33,0.087
226
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Chronos-2,90.47619047619048,22.491484624334955,0.0,0.26784322794871795,0.0,0.0
3
- TiRex,79.76190476190476,21.288270041647138,0.0,0.26115691663789,0.0,0.0
4
- TimesFM-2.5,72.61904761904762,20.340171911148776,0.0,0.7936244461538462,0.0,0.0
5
- TabPFN-TS,67.85714285714286,19.296786950554633,0.0,52.37668190762821,0.0,0.0
6
- Toto-1.0,64.28571428571429,19.57366854063398,0.0,24.157588808205134,0.0,0.0
7
- Chronos-Bolt,56.54761904761904,16.7501542380026,0.0,0.20589281349358973,0.0,0.0
8
- Moirai-2.0,55.35714285714285,16.732852664181774,0.0,1.7026751536335043,0.8333333333333334,0.0
9
- Sundial-Base,51.1904761904762,12.142829552531376,0.0,7.8157010582409505,0.0,0.0
10
- Stat. Ensemble,44.04761904761906,6.0859849264475745,0.0,28.261405801640862,0.0,33.33333333333333
11
- AutoTheta,39.28571428571429,5.560116179069641,0.0,1.7578207659544929,0.0,0.0
12
- AutoARIMA,39.28571428571429,3.511020388587349,0.0,13.813905255526317,0.0,33.33333333333333
13
- Seasonal Naive,29.166666666666668,0.0,0.0,0.1546446881304136,0.0,0.0
14
- AutoETS,28.57142857142857,-18.72817524266548,0.0,4.8025043967024885,0.0,0.0
15
- Drift,17.857142857142854,-30.331940880835084,0.0,0.14687456285464573,0.0,0.0
16
- Naive,13.690476190476192,-23.849674243208028,0.0,0.15513795943548064,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Chronos-2,95.91836734693878,31.297845857459595,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0
3
+ TimesFM-2.5,88.77551020408163,30.089978096846835,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0
4
+ TiRex,86.73469387755102,28.869849444319463,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0
5
+ TabPFN-TS,65.3061224489796,24.574044447615496,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0
6
+ Chronos-Bolt,64.79591836734694,25.33590896818273,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0
7
+ Moirai-2.0,64.79591836734694,25.33590896818273,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0
8
+ Sundial-Base,64.28571428571429,23.393412727785645,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0
9
+ Toto-1.0,64.28571428571429,25.54731526015246,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0
10
+ Stat. Ensemble,36.734693877551024,5.872754086951614,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857
11
+ AutoARIMA,31.63265306122449,2.7206673781491886,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857
12
+ AutoTheta,28.57142857142857,2.2840445726052927,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0
13
+ Seasonal Naive,26.53061224489796,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0
14
+ AutoETS,21.428571428571423,-16.790213190879342,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0
15
+ Naive,9.183673469387754,-40.74006375897996,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0
16
+ Drift,1.0204081632653061,-55.8521959090168,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Chronos-2,90.47619047619048,35.58787936204444,0.0,0.26784322794871795,0.0,0.0
3
- TiRex,82.14285714285714,34.53851918169612,0.0,0.26115691663789,0.0,0.0
4
- TimesFM-2.5,76.19047619047619,32.48574600837375,0.0,0.7936244461538462,0.0,0.0
5
- TabPFN-TS,70.23809523809523,30.439643747943656,0.0,52.37668190762821,0.0,0.0
6
- Toto-1.0,61.90476190476192,31.991168200458866,0.0,24.157588808205134,0.0,0.0
7
- Chronos-Bolt,60.11904761904761,28.156281905326587,0.0,0.20589281349358973,0.0,0.0
8
- Moirai-2.0,55.35714285714286,27.784248749062858,0.0,1.7026751536335043,0.8333333333333334,0.0
9
- AutoARIMA,46.42857142857144,6.61529754700757,0.0,13.813905255526317,0.0,33.33333333333333
10
- Stat. Ensemble,45.23809523809524,5.453467246975352,0.0,28.261405801640862,0.0,33.33333333333333
11
- Sundial-Base,39.285714285714285,20.76097880985013,0.0,7.8157010582409505,0.0,0.0
12
- AutoTheta,35.71428571428573,-11.90147576720375,0.0,1.7578207659544929,0.0,0.0
13
- Seasonal Naive,30.357142857142865,0.0,0.0,0.1546446881304136,0.0,0.0
14
- AutoETS,23.80952380952381,-205.05655001362152,0.0,4.8025043967024885,0.0,0.0
15
- Drift,19.047619047619044,-119.36994598641353,0.0,0.14687456285464573,0.0,0.0
16
- Naive,13.690476190476192,-118.20697665885001,0.0,0.15513795943548064,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Chronos-2,96.93877551020408,44.025730182452186,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0
3
+ TimesFM-2.5,91.83673469387756,42.67646308509806,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0
4
+ TiRex,87.75510204081634,42.05186472663197,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0
5
+ TabPFN-TS,69.38775510204081,37.208526302389004,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0
6
+ Toto-1.0,66.3265306122449,39.018777793021975,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0
7
+ Chronos-Bolt,65.81632653061226,37.28267454930213,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0
8
+ Moirai-2.0,65.81632653061226,37.28267454930213,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0
9
+ Sundial-Base,48.97959183673469,33.55369924549565,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0
10
+ AutoARIMA,39.79591836734694,9.230847183253665,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857
11
+ Stat. Ensemble,36.734693877551024,7.230158345242376,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857
12
+ Seasonal Naive,27.55102040816326,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0
13
+ AutoTheta,24.489795918367346,-26.74094614085021,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0
14
+ AutoETS,15.306122448979592,-344.79628604120813,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0
15
+ Naive,10.204081632653061,-146.71797661038454,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0
16
+ Drift,3.061224489795918,-161.01029312352807,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Chronos-2,83.33333333333334,21.324710763820896,0.0,0.26784322794871795,0.0,0.0
3
- TiRex,78.57142857142856,20.85333057264023,0.0,0.26115691663789,0.0,0.0
4
- TimesFM-2.5,72.61904761904762,20.363401785223758,0.0,0.7936244461538462,0.0,0.0
5
- TabPFN-TS,70.23809523809523,24.025327260859054,0.0,52.37668190762821,0.0,0.0
6
- Toto-1.0,66.66666666666667,19.95962232581897,0.0,24.157588808205134,0.0,0.0
7
- Moirai-2.0,56.547619047619044,16.170926676832266,0.0,1.7026751536335043,0.8333333333333334,0.0
8
- Chronos-Bolt,55.35714285714285,15.802884680588313,0.0,0.20589281349358973,0.0,0.0
9
- Sundial-Base,50.0,10.084443983533431,0.0,7.8157010582409505,0.0,0.0
10
- Stat. Ensemble,42.85714285714287,9.403612409193551,0.0,28.261405801640862,0.0,33.33333333333333
11
- AutoARIMA,40.476190476190474,6.515361175222156,0.0,13.813905255526317,0.0,33.33333333333333
12
- AutoTheta,38.0952380952381,11.488387532362754,0.0,1.7578207659544929,0.0,0.0
13
- Seasonal Naive,32.73809523809524,0.0,0.0,0.1546446881304136,0.0,0.0
14
- AutoETS,28.57142857142857,-21.961397745126266,0.0,4.8025043967024885,0.0,0.0
15
- Drift,17.857142857142854,-22.032645241338678,0.0,0.14687456285464573,0.0,0.0
16
- Naive,16.071428571428573,-23.914241845272176,0.0,0.15513795943548064,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Chronos-2,96.93877551020408,31.42661419654642,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0
3
+ TimesFM-2.5,87.75510204081633,30.13802811893269,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0
4
+ TiRex,80.61224489795919,28.669799374404302,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0
5
+ TabPFN-TS,68.36734693877551,25.6785844710001,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0
6
+ Chronos-Bolt,65.81632653061223,25.18849853851497,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0
7
+ Moirai-2.0,65.81632653061223,25.18849853851497,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0
8
+ Toto-1.0,65.3061224489796,25.90099075182256,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0
9
+ Sundial-Base,62.24489795918367,23.330206039824308,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0
10
+ Stat. Ensemble,36.734693877551024,4.641393336578314,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857
11
+ AutoARIMA,35.71428571428572,2.3947580894125298,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857
12
+ Seasonal Naive,27.55102040816326,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0
13
+ AutoTheta,25.510204081632654,0.0437412996646791,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0
14
+ AutoETS,21.428571428571423,-23.08073844288401,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0
15
+ Naive,9.183673469387754,-43.56382513496191,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0
16
+ Drift,1.0204081632653061,-58.78908483912755,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Chronos-2,83.33333333333334,35.204274552047885,0.0,0.26784322794871795,0.0,0.0
3
- TiRex,83.33333333333333,34.7246344700893,0.0,0.26115691663789,0.0,0.0
4
- TimesFM-2.5,76.19047619047619,32.919263458775205,0.0,0.7936244461538462,0.0,0.0
5
- TabPFN-TS,70.23809523809523,33.67977167229876,0.0,52.37668190762821,0.0,0.0
6
- Toto-1.0,64.28571428571429,32.650044473354214,0.0,24.157588808205134,0.0,0.0
7
- Chronos-Bolt,57.738095238095234,27.880696156865582,0.0,0.20589281349358973,0.0,0.0
8
- Moirai-2.0,56.547619047619044,27.806121580738196,0.0,1.7026751536335043,0.8333333333333334,0.0
9
- AutoARIMA,46.42857142857144,10.009918487007152,0.0,13.813905255526317,0.0,33.33333333333333
10
- Stat. Ensemble,44.04761904761906,8.30704949044635,0.0,28.261405801640862,0.0,33.33333333333333
11
- Sundial-Base,39.285714285714285,18.821645377219486,0.0,7.8157010582409505,0.0,0.0
12
- AutoTheta,36.90476190476191,-6.590864483593606,0.0,1.7578207659544929,0.0,0.0
13
- Seasonal Naive,32.73809523809524,0.0,0.0,0.1546446881304136,0.0,0.0
14
- AutoETS,23.80952380952381,-198.1123633616785,0.0,4.8025043967024885,0.0,0.0
15
- Drift,19.047619047619044,-103.02469270449221,0.0,0.14687456285464573,0.0,0.0
16
- Naive,16.071428571428573,-115.43969504137333,0.0,0.15513795943548064,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Chronos-2,96.93877551020408,44.54705190137261,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0
3
+ TimesFM-2.5,91.83673469387756,43.233433897648524,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0
4
+ TiRex,84.6938775510204,42.41994460150037,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0
5
+ TabPFN-TS,70.40816326530613,38.56288334540934,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0
6
+ Chronos-Bolt,66.83673469387756,37.73183131937476,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0
7
+ Moirai-2.0,66.83673469387756,37.73183131937476,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0
8
+ Toto-1.0,66.3265306122449,39.79490314550572,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0
9
+ Sundial-Base,48.97959183673469,34.17893470020018,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0
10
+ AutoARIMA,40.81632653061225,9.557478558677035,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857
11
+ Stat. Ensemble,35.71428571428572,5.698092718548208,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857
12
+ Seasonal Naive,28.57142857142857,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0
13
+ AutoTheta,23.46938775510204,-35.07795159739386,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0
14
+ AutoETS,15.306122448979592,-351.4556695211341,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0
15
+ Naive,10.204081632653061,-144.85036530396843,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0
16
+ Drift,3.061224489795918,-159.03481525283004,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.015,0.009,0.023
4
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.027,-0.016,0.061
5
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.04,-0.033,0.1
6
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.036,0.014,0.065
7
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.069,0.027,0.113
8
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.069,0.027,0.113
9
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.058,0.175
10
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.175,-0.0,0.32
11
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.197,0.038,0.332
12
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.179,0.015,0.321
13
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.225,0.129,0.322
14
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.347,0.112,0.558
15
- Chronos-2,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.405,0.171,0.552
16
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.236,0.486
17
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.016,-0.023,-0.009
18
- TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.012,-0.036,0.048
20
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.025,-0.049,0.084
21
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.021,-0.0,0.047
22
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.016,0.097
23
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.016,0.097
24
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.104,0.045,0.16
25
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.162,-0.012,0.305
26
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.184,0.024,0.321
27
- TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.167,-0.0,0.307
28
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.12,0.307
29
- TiRex,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.337,0.103,0.547
30
- TiRex,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.396,0.159,0.544
31
- TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.364,0.227,0.477
32
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.333,0.0,0.833,-0.028,-0.065,0.016
33
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.833,-0.012,-0.05,0.035
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.013,-0.08,0.077
36
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.01,-0.046,0.077
37
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.043,-0.016,0.106
38
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.043,-0.016,0.106
39
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.093,0.048,0.139
40
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.152,-0.047,0.322
41
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.174,-0.012,0.329
42
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.157,-0.024,0.303
43
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.203,0.082,0.328
44
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.329,0.086,0.55
45
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.389,0.127,0.552
46
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.357,0.192,0.49
47
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.041,-0.112,0.032
48
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.025,-0.091,0.047
49
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.013,-0.084,0.074
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
50
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.003,-0.076,0.063
52
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.031,-0.025,0.088
53
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.031,-0.025,0.089
54
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.081,-0.002,0.181
55
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.141,0.015,0.267
56
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.164,0.049,0.277
57
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.145,0.029,0.254
58
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.193,0.113,0.282
59
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.111,0.518
60
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.381,0.179,0.531
61
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.226,0.47
62
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.069,-0.014
63
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.022,-0.049,0.0
64
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.01,-0.083,0.044
65
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.003,-0.067,0.071
66
- Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.034,-0.006,0.08
68
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.034,-0.006,0.08
69
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.085,0.009,0.154
70
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.144,-0.028,0.285
71
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.166,0.008,0.295
72
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.148,-0.028,0.296
73
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.196,0.11,0.283
74
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.323,0.083,0.533
75
- Toto-1.0,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.383,0.153,0.527
76
- Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.351,0.218,0.458
77
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.074,-0.128,-0.028
78
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.107,-0.016
79
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.045,-0.119,0.016
80
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.032,-0.097,0.024
81
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.035,-0.087,0.006
82
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.5,0.75,0.0,0.0,0.001
84
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.052,-0.022,0.122
85
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.114,-0.052,0.244
86
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.137,-0.01,0.261
87
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.118,-0.047,0.26
88
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.168,0.065,0.259
89
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.299,0.066,0.517
90
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.361,0.108,0.52
91
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.328,0.179,0.459
92
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.074,-0.128,-0.028
93
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.107,-0.016
94
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.045,-0.119,0.016
95
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.032,-0.097,0.024
96
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.035,-0.087,0.006
97
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.25,0.5,-0.0,-0.001,0.0
98
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.052,-0.022,0.121
100
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.113,-0.052,0.244
101
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.137,-0.011,0.261
102
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.118,-0.048,0.26
103
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.167,0.064,0.259
104
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.299,0.066,0.517
105
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.361,0.107,0.52
106
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.328,0.179,0.459
107
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.134,-0.212,-0.061
108
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.116,-0.191,-0.047
109
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.103,-0.162,-0.05
110
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.089,-0.22,0.002
111
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.092,-0.183,-0.009
112
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.055,-0.138,0.022
113
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.055,-0.138,0.022
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
114
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.064,-0.19,0.242
116
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.089,-0.136,0.252
117
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.07,-0.155,0.21
118
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.121,-0.023,0.249
119
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.26,-0.004,0.472
120
- Sundial-Base,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.326,0.02,0.512
121
- Sundial-Base,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.291,0.09,0.451
122
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.212,-0.47,0.0
123
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.193,-0.438,0.012
124
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.179,-0.475,0.045
125
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.164,-0.363,-0.016
126
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.168,-0.398,0.027
127
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.128,-0.322,0.049
128
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.128,-0.322,0.05
129
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.069,-0.32,0.16
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.027,-0.002,0.067
132
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.006,-0.121,0.136
133
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.061,-0.035,0.14
134
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.209,0.02,0.444
135
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.279,0.101,0.44
136
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.242,0.117,0.379
137
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.245,-0.497,-0.039
138
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.226,-0.472,-0.024
139
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.211,-0.49,0.012
140
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.196,-0.382,-0.052
141
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.2,-0.418,-0.009
142
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.159,-0.353,0.01
143
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.159,-0.353,0.011
144
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.098,-0.337,0.12
145
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.027,-0.072,0.002
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.022,-0.132,0.084
148
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.035,-0.058,0.12
149
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.187,0.016,0.4
150
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.26,0.085,0.44
151
- AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.221,0.099,0.374
152
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.218,-0.472,-0.015
153
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.2,-0.443,0.0
154
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.186,-0.436,0.023
155
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.17,-0.341,-0.03
156
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.174,-0.42,0.028
157
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.134,-0.351,0.045
158
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.134,-0.351,0.046
159
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.075,-0.266,0.134
160
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.006,-0.157,0.108
161
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.021,-0.092,0.117
162
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.056,-0.093,0.175
164
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.205,0.043,0.362
165
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.275,0.114,0.439
166
- AutoTheta,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.237,0.09,0.386
167
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.29,-0.475,-0.148
168
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.443,-0.137
169
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.255,-0.487,-0.09
170
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.239,-0.393,-0.127
171
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.243,-0.394,-0.124
172
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.201,-0.349,-0.069
173
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.201,-0.349,-0.068
174
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.138,-0.331,0.022
175
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.065,-0.163,0.034
176
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.036,-0.137,0.055
177
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.059,-0.212,0.085
178
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.158,-0.064,0.399
180
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.233,0.014,0.39
181
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.193,0.082,0.319
182
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.532,-1.262,-0.126
183
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.508,-1.208,-0.115
184
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.49,-1.22,-0.094
185
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-1.076,-0.125
186
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.476,-1.143,-0.09
187
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.426,-1.071,-0.071
188
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.426,-1.071,-0.07
189
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.351,-0.892,0.004
190
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.264,-0.799,-0.02
191
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.23,-0.668,-0.016
192
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.257,-0.567,-0.045
193
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.187,-0.665,0.06
194
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- AutoETS,Drift,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.089,-0.262,0.37
196
- AutoETS,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.041,-0.415,0.332
197
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.682,-1.232,-0.206
198
- Drift,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.656,-1.193,-0.19
199
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.636,-1.234,-0.146
200
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.615,-1.133,-0.218
201
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.621,-1.116,-0.18
202
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.566,-1.082,-0.121
203
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.565,-1.082,-0.12
204
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.483,-1.048,-0.02
205
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.388,-0.787,-0.113
206
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.351,-0.786,-0.093
207
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.38,-0.783,-0.129
208
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.303,-0.639,-0.014
209
- Drift,AutoETS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.098,-0.587,0.208
210
- Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Drift,Naive,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.052,-0.156,0.084
212
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.946,-0.31
213
- Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.573,-0.913,-0.293
214
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.555,-0.961,-0.238
215
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.885,-0.292
216
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.54,-0.845,-0.278
217
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.488,-0.849,-0.219
218
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.487,-0.849,-0.218
219
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.41,-0.821,-0.098
220
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.319,-0.609,-0.133
221
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.284,-0.599,-0.11
222
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.311,-0.63,-0.098
223
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.238,-0.468,-0.089
224
- Naive,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.043,-0.498,0.294
225
- Naive,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.05,-0.092,0.135
226
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.017,-0.024,0.061
4
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.034,0.009,0.076
5
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.089,0.049,0.126
6
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.08,0.037,0.13
7
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.08,0.037,0.13
8
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.103,0.061,0.146
9
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.077,0.03,0.141
10
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.27,0.176,0.353
11
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.204,0.364
12
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.185,0.384
13
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.233,0.391
14
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.237,0.543
15
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.402,0.614
16
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.451,0.653
17
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.018,-0.065,0.024
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
18
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.017,-0.021,0.051
20
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.073,0.04,0.109
21
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.113
22
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.113
23
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.087,0.048,0.127
24
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.061,-0.003,0.118
25
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.15,0.359
26
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.184,0.367
27
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.17,0.391
28
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.204,0.39
29
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.219,0.542
30
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.37,0.621
31
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.43,0.659
32
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.035,-0.082,-0.009
33
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.017,-0.054,0.02
34
+ TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.02,0.093
36
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.014,0.095
37
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.014,0.095
38
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.071,0.027,0.116
39
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.045,0.016,0.076
40
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.144,0.332
41
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.179,0.342
42
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.155,0.369
43
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.214,0.356
44
+ TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.391,0.205,0.532
45
+ TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.495,0.375,0.603
46
+ TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.544,0.435,0.643
47
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.098,-0.144,-0.051
48
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.079,-0.122,-0.042
49
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.06,-0.102,-0.02
50
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.01,-0.05,0.03
52
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.01,-0.05,0.03
53
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.015,-0.02,0.054
54
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.013,-0.076,0.044
55
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.109,0.286
56
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.225,0.148,0.295
57
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.128,0.32
58
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.246,0.154,0.321
59
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.354,0.174,0.502
60
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.464,0.328,0.578
61
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.398,0.621
62
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.087,-0.149,-0.038
63
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.127,-0.022
64
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.105,-0.014
65
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.01,-0.031,0.048
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
66
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
68
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.025,-0.024,0.08
69
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.069,0.046
70
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.207,0.113,0.293
71
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.142,0.307
72
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.122,0.342
73
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.16,0.33
74
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.168,0.512
75
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.333,0.589
76
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.404,0.63
77
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.087,-0.149,-0.038
78
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.127,-0.022
79
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.105,-0.014
80
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.01,-0.031,0.048
81
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
82
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.025,-0.024,0.08
84
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.069,0.046
85
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.207,0.113,0.293
86
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.142,0.307
87
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.122,0.342
88
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.16,0.33
89
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.168,0.512
90
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.333,0.589
91
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.404,0.63
92
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.115,-0.171,-0.065
93
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.096,-0.145,-0.05
94
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.077,-0.131,-0.027
95
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.016,-0.057,0.02
96
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.026,-0.087,0.023
97
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.026,-0.087,0.023
98
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.029,-0.108,0.041
100
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.186,0.072,0.282
101
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.123,0.291
102
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.216,0.123,0.313
103
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.136,0.317
104
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.18,0.475
105
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.308,0.575
106
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.508,0.38,0.616
107
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.084,-0.164,-0.031
108
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.065,-0.134,0.003
109
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.047,-0.082,-0.016
110
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.013,-0.046,0.07
111
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.048,0.065
112
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.048,0.065
113
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.028,-0.043,0.098
114
+ Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.209,0.098,0.307
116
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.235,0.131,0.313
117
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.238,0.103,0.343
118
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.188,0.319
119
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.363,0.156,0.515
120
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.356,0.581
121
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.522,0.417,0.623
122
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.37,-0.546,-0.213
123
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.346,-0.561,-0.177
124
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.497,-0.169
125
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.401,-0.122
126
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.261,-0.415,-0.127
127
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.261,-0.415,-0.127
128
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.229,-0.392,-0.077
129
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.264,-0.443,-0.109
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.032,-0.002,0.079
132
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.037,-0.085,0.148
133
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.059,-0.038,0.141
134
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.194,0.026,0.393
135
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.331,0.172,0.461
136
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.251,0.517
137
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.572,-0.256
138
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.391,-0.581,-0.225
139
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.368,-0.519,-0.218
140
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.29,-0.418,-0.174
141
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.442,-0.166
142
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.442,-0.166
143
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.41,-0.14
144
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.307,-0.455,-0.15
145
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.033,-0.085,0.002
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.004,-0.104,0.098
148
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.214,0.857,0.027,-0.063,0.098
149
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.167,-0.0,0.353
150
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.141,0.448
151
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.227,0.503
152
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.422,-0.624,-0.227
153
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.398,-0.643,-0.205
154
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.374,-0.586,-0.184
155
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.296,-0.47,-0.147
156
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.52,-0.138
157
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.52,-0.138
158
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.276,-0.456,-0.14
159
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.312,-0.523,-0.115
160
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.038,-0.173,0.079
161
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.004,-0.109,0.094
162
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.282,1.0,0.023,-0.109,0.143
164
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.163,0.016,0.312
165
+ AutoTheta,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.306,0.133,0.424
166
+ AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.233,0.477
167
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.456,-0.641,-0.304
168
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.639,-0.257
169
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.406,-0.554,-0.272
170
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.326,-0.474,-0.182
171
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.492,-0.191
172
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.492,-0.191
173
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.465,-0.157
174
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.468,-0.232
175
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.062,-0.164,0.036
176
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.429,0.143,0.786,-0.028,-0.109,0.059
177
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.429,0.0,0.718,-0.023,-0.167,0.098
178
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.144,-0.08,0.347
180
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.162,0.408
181
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.358,0.233,0.467
182
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.7,-1.189,-0.31
183
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.671,-1.186,-0.281
184
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.642,-1.135,-0.258
185
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.548,-1.007,-0.211
186
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.564,-1.05,-0.201
187
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.564,-1.05,-0.201
188
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.525,-0.905,-0.219
189
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.569,-1.06,-0.185
190
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.241,-0.648,-0.027
191
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.201,-0.545,0.0
192
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.195,-0.452,-0.016
193
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.168,-0.531,0.074
194
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.17,-0.204,0.396
196
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.251,-0.069,0.449
197
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.049,-1.592,-0.672
198
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.013,-1.641,-0.586
199
+ Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.979,-1.521,-0.601
200
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.866,-1.37,-0.488
201
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.885,-1.435,-0.499
202
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.885,-1.435,-0.499
203
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.837,-1.355,-0.444
204
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.89,-1.385,-0.552
205
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.495,-0.856,-0.207
206
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.811,-0.164
207
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.44,-0.736,-0.153
208
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.689,-0.193
209
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.205,-0.655,0.169
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.097,0.063,0.13
212
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.269,-1.88,-0.82
213
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.229,-1.932,-0.755
214
+ Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.191,-1.804,-0.769
215
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.066,-1.636,-0.662
216
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.087,-1.702,-0.678
217
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.087,-1.702,-0.678
218
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.034,-1.602,-0.613
219
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.093,-1.654,-0.714
220
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.656,-1.07,-0.335
221
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.602,-1.01,-0.294
222
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.595,-0.913,-0.303
223
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.559,-0.877,-0.304
224
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.334,-0.816,0.065
225
+ Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.107,-0.149,-0.068
226
+ Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.016,0.008,0.024
4
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.046,-0.006,0.097
5
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.074,-0.004,0.147
6
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.053,0.037,0.069
7
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.103,0.045,0.174
8
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.052,0.176
9
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.31,0.118,0.474
10
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.319,0.121,0.484
11
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.187,0.13,0.243
12
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.424,0.155,0.639
13
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.356,0.212,0.487
14
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.761,0.348,0.939
15
- Chronos-2,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.706,0.467,0.821
16
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.705,0.524,0.806
17
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.016,-0.025,-0.008
18
- TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.03,-0.026,0.084
20
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.059,-0.015,0.13
21
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.037,0.025,0.051
22
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.089,0.035,0.155
23
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.041,0.157
24
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.299,0.108,0.461
25
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.308,0.11,0.471
26
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.174,0.117,0.233
27
- TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.415,0.146,0.632
28
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.345,0.201,0.476
29
- TiRex,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.758,0.34,0.938
30
- TiRex,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.702,0.464,0.817
31
- TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.7,0.519,0.802
32
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.333,0.0,0.833,-0.048,-0.107,0.006
33
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.833,-0.031,-0.092,0.025
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.029,-0.084,0.108
36
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.007,-0.053,0.066
37
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.06,-0.018,0.135
38
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.065,-0.007,0.135
39
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.277,0.055,0.463
40
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.286,0.058,0.472
41
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.148,0.116,0.18
42
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.397,0.077,0.632
43
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.325,0.145,0.483
44
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.751,0.301,0.937
45
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.692,0.415,0.815
46
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.691,0.471,0.801
47
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.08,-0.172,0.004
48
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.063,-0.149,0.015
49
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.03,-0.122,0.078
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
50
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.023,-0.117,0.057
52
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.032,-0.059,0.098
53
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.037,-0.059,0.107
54
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.255,0.095,0.414
55
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.264,0.104,0.421
56
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.122,0.045,0.229
57
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.378,0.128,0.599
58
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.304,0.188,0.437
59
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.751,0.337,0.937
60
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.683,0.455,0.792
61
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.681,0.514,0.776
62
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.056,-0.074,-0.039
63
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.039,-0.054,-0.026
64
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.007,-0.071,0.05
65
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.022,-0.06,0.105
66
  Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.053,-0.003,0.125
68
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.058,0.005,0.13
69
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.272,0.072,0.436
70
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.281,0.075,0.454
71
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.142,0.083,0.201
72
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.392,0.111,0.61
73
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.32,0.174,0.45
74
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.75,0.314,0.937
75
- Toto-1.0,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.69,0.441,0.81
76
- Toto-1.0,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.688,0.498,0.794
77
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.115,-0.211,-0.047
78
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.184,-0.036
79
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.064,-0.156,0.017
80
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.033,-0.109,0.055
81
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.056,-0.143,0.003
82
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.5,0.75,0.005,0.0,0.015
84
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.231,0.046,0.387
85
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.24,0.048,0.394
86
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.093,0.001,0.177
87
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.358,0.078,0.579
88
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.282,0.122,0.42
89
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.736,0.275,0.933
90
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.672,0.413,0.799
91
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.671,0.476,0.782
92
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.121,-0.214,-0.054
93
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.103,-0.187,-0.042
94
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.07,-0.156,0.007
95
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.038,-0.12,0.055
96
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.062,-0.149,-0.005
97
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.25,0.5,-0.005,-0.016,0.0
98
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.227,0.036,0.387
100
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.236,0.038,0.394
101
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.089,0.001,0.168
102
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.355,0.07,0.579
103
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.278,0.113,0.42
104
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.735,0.264,0.933
105
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.671,0.404,0.799
106
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.669,0.468,0.782
107
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.45,-0.9,-0.134
108
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.427,-0.855,-0.121
109
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.383,-0.861,-0.059
110
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.342,-0.706,-0.106
111
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.373,-0.774,-0.078
112
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.3,-0.631,-0.048
113
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.293,-0.631,-0.037
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
114
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.012,-0.009,0.032
116
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.179,-0.569,0.106
117
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.165,0.01,0.331
118
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.066,-0.106,0.183
119
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.681,0.151,0.924
120
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.574,0.355,0.703
121
- AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.572,0.414,0.681
122
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.468,-0.939,-0.137
123
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.444,-0.89,-0.124
124
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.4,-0.893,-0.061
125
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.359,-0.726,-0.116
126
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.39,-0.83,-0.081
127
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.316,-0.649,-0.051
128
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.309,-0.649,-0.04
129
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.012,-0.033,0.008
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.193,-0.583,0.103
132
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.155,-0.001,0.323
133
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.055,-0.131,0.172
134
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.68,0.142,0.924
135
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.569,0.349,0.695
136
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.567,0.421,0.671
137
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.23,-0.321,-0.149
138
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.21,-0.303,-0.132
139
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.174,-0.219,-0.131
140
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.139,-0.298,-0.047
141
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.165,-0.251,-0.09
142
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.103,-0.215,-0.001
143
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.097,-0.202,-0.001
144
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.151,-0.118,0.363
145
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.162,-0.115,0.368
146
- Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.292,-0.052,0.56
148
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.208,-0.0,0.378
149
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.719,0.178,0.932
150
- Sundial-Base,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.639,0.305,0.778
151
- Sundial-Base,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.637,0.372,0.761
152
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.737,-1.768,-0.183
153
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.709,-1.715,-0.172
154
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.657,-1.72,-0.083
155
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.609,-1.491,-0.146
156
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.645,-1.566,-0.125
157
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.558,-1.378,-0.085
158
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.55,-1.377,-0.076
159
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.198,-0.494,-0.011
160
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.184,-0.477,0.001
161
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.412,-1.274,0.049
162
- AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.119,-0.453,0.102
164
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.643,-0.009,0.923
165
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.49,0.234,0.64
166
- AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.294,0.613
167
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.553,-0.949,-0.27
168
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.528,-0.907,-0.252
169
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.481,-0.932,-0.17
170
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.438,-0.776,-0.232
171
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.47,-0.818,-0.21
172
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.392,-0.723,-0.138
173
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.385,-0.723,-0.127
174
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.071,-0.223,0.096
175
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.058,-0.208,0.116
176
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.262,-0.608,0.0
177
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.106,-0.113,0.312
178
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.672,0.112,0.925
180
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.544,0.278,0.667
181
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.542,0.358,0.64
182
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-3.183,-15.408,-0.533
183
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-3.129,-15.177,-0.515
184
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-3.02,-14.891,-0.43
185
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.015,-14.814,-0.508
186
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-2.995,-14.89,-0.458
187
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.794,-13.898,-0.38
188
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.775,-13.824,-0.358
189
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.138,-12.22,-0.178
190
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.124,-12.185,-0.166
191
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-2.552,-13.802,-0.217
192
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.333,0.0,0.833,-1.8,-11.907,0.009
193
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.333,0.0,0.667,-2.051,-12.263,-0.126
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
194
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- AutoETS,Drift,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.716,-8.372,0.458
196
- AutoETS,Naive,0.667,0.333,1.0,-0.698,-8.492,0.445
197
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.406,-4.59,-0.877
198
- Drift,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.351,-4.472,-0.864
199
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.249,-4.4,-0.709
200
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.154,-3.801,-0.836
201
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.226,-4.267,-0.79
202
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.053,-3.967,-0.703
203
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.038,-3.967,-0.677
204
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.349,-2.372,-0.55
205
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.32,-2.278,-0.535
206
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.768,-3.508,-0.438
207
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.96,-1.777,-0.305
208
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.194,-2.003,-0.385
209
- Drift,AutoETS,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.417,-0.844,0.893
210
- Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Drift,Naive,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.005,-0.083,0.11
212
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.388,-4.154,-1.102
213
- Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.333,-4.046,-1.079
214
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.232,-4.027,-0.892
215
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.137,-3.467,-1.059
216
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.209,-3.857,-0.994
217
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.037,-3.586,-0.908
218
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.022,-3.586,-0.881
219
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.337,-2.134,-0.705
220
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.308,-2.042,-0.727
221
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.754,-3.191,-0.593
222
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.95,-1.587,-0.416
223
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.083,0.0,0.25,-1.182,-1.774,-0.557
224
- Naive,AutoETS,0.333,0.0,0.667,0.411,-0.8,0.895
225
- Naive,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.005,-0.123,0.076
226
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.024,-0.013,0.065
4
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.034,0.012,0.07
5
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.062,0.153
6
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.082,0.044,0.138
7
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.172
8
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.172
9
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.158,0.126,0.193
10
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.26,0.478
11
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.273,0.489
12
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.347,0.521
13
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.558,0.343,0.711
14
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.86,0.51,0.958
15
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.773,0.719,0.816
16
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.732,0.829
17
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.024,-0.069,0.013
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
18
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.028,0.042
20
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.087,0.05,0.119
21
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.06,0.005,0.11
22
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.044,0.139
23
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.044,0.139
24
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.137,0.109,0.169
25
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.245,0.471
26
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.255,0.481
27
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.314,0.522
28
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.33,0.709
29
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.856,0.492,0.957
30
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.709,0.815
31
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.78,0.724,0.826
32
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.035,-0.076,-0.012
33
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.011,-0.044,0.027
34
+ TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.077,0.027,0.129
36
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.05,0.03,0.074
37
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.024,0.15
38
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.024,0.15
39
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.128,0.09,0.167
40
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.233,0.466
41
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.375,0.24,0.476
42
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.325,0.506
43
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.543,0.317,0.701
44
+ TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.855,0.486,0.957
45
+ TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.765,0.704,0.812
46
+ TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.717,0.824
47
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.122,-0.181,-0.067
48
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.095,-0.135,-0.052
49
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.084,-0.147,-0.028
50
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.03,-0.107,0.041
52
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.001,-0.064,0.062
53
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.001,-0.064,0.062
54
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.032,0.082
55
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.308,0.199,0.416
56
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.209,0.425
57
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.269,0.467
58
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.278,0.671
59
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.848,0.463,0.955
60
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.745,0.691,0.79
61
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.759,0.706,0.803
62
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.089,-0.16,-0.046
63
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.064,-0.124,-0.005
64
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.052,-0.08,-0.031
65
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.029,-0.042,0.096
66
  Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.028,-0.04,0.11
68
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.028,-0.04,0.11
69
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.082,0.022,0.136
70
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.328,0.187,0.44
71
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.343,0.196,0.453
72
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.39,0.294,0.473
73
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.519,0.277,0.683
74
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.849,0.443,0.955
75
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.683,0.804
76
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.766,0.697,0.817
77
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.208,-0.056
78
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.161,-0.046
79
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.176,-0.025
80
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.001,-0.066,0.06
81
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.028,-0.123,0.039
82
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
84
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,-0.0,0.102
85
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.196,0.404
86
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.324,0.204,0.416
87
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.248,0.474
88
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.282,0.672
89
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.845,0.437,0.955
90
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.678,0.799
91
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.695,0.81
92
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.208,-0.056
93
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.161,-0.046
94
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.176,-0.025
95
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.001,-0.066,0.06
96
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.028,-0.123,0.039
97
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
98
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,-0.0,0.102
100
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.196,0.404
101
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.324,0.204,0.416
102
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.248,0.474
103
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.282,0.672
104
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.845,0.437,0.955
105
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.678,0.799
106
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.695,0.81
107
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.187,-0.24,-0.145
108
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.159,-0.203,-0.122
109
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.147,-0.2,-0.098
110
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.089,-0.033
111
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.09,-0.158,-0.022
112
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.059,-0.113,0.0
113
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.059,-0.113,0.0
114
+ Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.268,0.146,0.375
116
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.284,0.156,0.39
117
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.229,0.428
118
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.476,0.241,0.651
119
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.84,0.419,0.954
120
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.731,0.671,0.779
121
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.745,0.688,0.793
122
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.622,-0.916,-0.35
123
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.889,-0.325
124
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.871,-0.303
125
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.446,-0.712,-0.248
126
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.488,-0.784,-0.23
127
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.678,-0.244
128
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.678,-0.244
129
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.366,-0.6,-0.171
130
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.022,0.004,0.038
132
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.092,-0.059,0.197
133
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.284,0.084,0.465
134
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.789,0.253,0.937
135
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.632,0.558,0.691
136
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.652,0.58,0.71
137
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.956,-0.376
138
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-0.927,-0.342
139
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.601,-0.908,-0.316
140
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.477,-0.74,-0.265
141
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.521,-0.829,-0.243
142
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.479,-0.713,-0.256
143
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.479,-0.713,-0.256
144
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.396,-0.639,-0.185
145
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.022,-0.039,-0.004
146
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.072,-0.096,0.186
148
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.268,0.067,0.446
149
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.245,0.936
150
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.624,0.549,0.68
151
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.572,0.701
152
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.787,-1.087,-0.531
153
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.744,-1.092,-0.458
154
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.726,-1.023,-0.482
155
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.876,-0.368
156
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.64,-0.896,-0.416
157
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-0.902,-0.329
158
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-0.902,-0.329
159
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.749,-0.296
160
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.102,-0.245,0.056
161
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.078,-0.228,0.088
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
162
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.211,-0.037,0.4
164
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.775,0.199,0.936
165
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.595,0.537,0.639
166
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.555,0.664
167
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.264,-2.458,-0.521
168
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.211,-2.434,-0.492
169
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.187,-2.346,-0.464
170
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.018,-2.041,-0.385
171
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.078,-2.15,-0.384
172
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.021,-2.051,-0.393
173
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.021,-2.051,-0.393
174
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.907,-1.864,-0.318
175
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.396,-0.868,-0.091
176
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.366,-0.806,-0.072
177
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.267,-0.667,0.036
178
+ AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.722,0.013,0.91
180
+ AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.486,0.336,0.597
181
+ AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.514,0.375,0.62
182
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-6.136,-22.624,-1.041
183
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.961,-22.389,-0.969
184
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.913,-22.04,-0.946
185
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.568,-21.334,-0.862
186
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.605,-21.234,-0.797
187
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.44,-21.318,-0.776
188
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.44,-21.318,-0.776
189
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.248,-20.643,-0.722
190
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.735,-14.953,-0.339
191
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.663,-14.613,-0.324
192
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.714,-3.448,-14.656,-0.248
193
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-2.591,-10.089,-0.013
194
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.129,-7.081,0.442
196
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.041,-6.801,0.465
197
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.408,-4.434,-2.563
198
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.304,-4.393,-2.438
199
+ Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.258,-4.322,-2.38
200
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.929,-3.762,-2.238
201
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.046,-4.115,-2.158
202
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.934,-3.963,-2.108
203
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.934,-3.963,-2.108
204
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.713,-3.518,-2.044
205
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.718,-2.232,-1.263
206
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.659,-2.123,-1.216
207
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.467,-1.772,-1.16
208
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.947,-1.479,-0.505
209
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.53,-0.793,0.876
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.037,0.073
212
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.663,-4.836,-2.73
213
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.553,-4.74,-2.617
214
+ Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.504,-4.692,-2.529
215
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.157,-4.067,-2.401
216
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.28,-4.461,-2.302
217
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.162,-4.265,-2.276
218
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.162,-4.265,-2.276
219
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.928,-3.827,-2.2
220
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.876,-2.448,-1.382
221
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.814,-2.34,-1.336
222
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.61,-1.975,-1.248
223
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.059,-1.629,-0.6
224
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.51,-0.87,0.872
225
+ Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.079,-0.038
226
+ Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.006,-0.021,0.025
4
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.012,-0.024,0.046
5
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.5,1.0,-0.036,-0.297,0.1
6
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.017,-0.038,0.062
7
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.061,0.005,0.123
8
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.066,0.014,0.123
9
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.059,0.188
10
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.132,-0.151,0.327
11
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.158,-0.091,0.336
12
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.111,-0.26,0.324
13
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.213,0.093,0.324
14
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.355,0.057,0.594
15
- Chronos-2,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.355,-0.073,0.554
16
- Chronos-2,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.365,0.203,0.488
17
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.006,-0.026,0.021
18
- TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.006,-0.043,0.041
20
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.333,1.0,-0.042,-0.273,0.081
21
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.011,-0.02,0.043
22
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.056,0.013,0.105
23
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.06,0.018,0.106
24
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.12,0.044,0.191
25
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.126,-0.136,0.312
26
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.153,-0.073,0.318
27
- TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.106,-0.237,0.307
28
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.209,0.108,0.309
29
- TiRex,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.351,0.071,0.583
30
- TiRex,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.351,-0.05,0.544
31
- TiRex,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.361,0.218,0.476
32
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.333,0.0,0.833,-0.012,-0.048,0.023
33
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.833,-0.006,-0.043,0.041
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.5,1.0,-0.048,-0.297,0.08
36
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.005,-0.062,0.08
37
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.05,-0.014,0.119
38
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.054,-0.003,0.119
39
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.114,0.053,0.178
40
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.121,-0.181,0.336
41
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.148,-0.121,0.339
42
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.1,-0.264,0.314
43
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.204,0.075,0.334
44
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.347,0.061,0.594
45
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.347,-0.077,0.556
46
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.357,0.19,0.497
47
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,0.034,-0.111,0.229
48
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.667,0.04,-0.088,0.214
49
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,0.046,-0.087,0.229
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
50
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.051,-0.076,0.203
52
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.094,-0.018,0.242
53
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.098,-0.018,0.252
54
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.155,0.0,0.356
55
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.161,0.055,0.276
56
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.187,0.093,0.285
57
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.142,0.013,0.258
58
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.24,0.133,0.334
59
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.17,0.563
60
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.377,0.166,0.529
61
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.29,0.489
62
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.017,-0.066,0.036
63
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.011,-0.045,0.02
64
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.005,-0.087,0.059
65
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.054,-0.255,0.07
66
- Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.045,-0.002,0.091
68
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.049,0.001,0.097
69
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.11,0.012,0.208
70
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.117,-0.129,0.29
71
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.144,-0.065,0.301
72
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.096,-0.229,0.302
73
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.116,0.286
74
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.344,0.069,0.576
75
- Toto-1.0,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.344,-0.034,0.527
76
- Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.354,0.231,0.454
77
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.066,-0.14,-0.005
78
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.059,-0.117,-0.013
79
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.053,-0.135,0.014
80
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.103,-0.32,0.017
81
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.047,-0.1,0.002
82
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.5,0.75,0.004,0.0,0.013
84
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.068,-0.03,0.163
85
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.075,-0.162,0.243
86
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.103,-0.119,0.258
87
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.053,-0.299,0.255
88
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.162,0.051,0.258
89
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.313,0.038,0.557
90
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.313,-0.106,0.521
91
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.323,0.175,0.453
92
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.07,-0.14,-0.014
93
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.064,-0.119,-0.018
94
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.057,-0.135,0.003
95
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.108,-0.337,0.017
96
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.052,-0.107,-0.001
97
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.25,0.5,-0.004,-0.013,0.0
98
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.064,-0.03,0.152
100
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.071,-0.177,0.243
101
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.099,-0.129,0.258
102
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.049,-0.316,0.255
103
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.158,0.041,0.258
104
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.31,0.029,0.557
105
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.31,-0.12,0.521
106
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.321,0.164,0.453
107
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.143,-0.232,-0.062
108
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.136,-0.236,-0.046
109
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.129,-0.216,-0.055
110
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.183,-0.552,-0.0
111
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.123,-0.262,-0.012
112
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.073,-0.195,0.03
113
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.068,-0.18,0.03
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
114
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.008,-0.395,0.248
116
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.038,-0.314,0.256
117
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,-0.016,-0.513,0.217
118
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.101,-0.09,0.245
119
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.263,-0.071,0.518
120
- Sundial-Base,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.263,-0.283,0.514
121
- Sundial-Base,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.274,0.032,0.451
122
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.152,-0.486,0.132
123
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.145,-0.454,0.12
124
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.138,-0.505,0.153
125
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.192,-0.381,-0.058
126
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.132,-0.408,0.115
127
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.081,-0.322,0.139
128
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.076,-0.322,0.15
129
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.008,-0.33,0.283
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.031,-0.001,0.067
132
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.024,-0.166,0.127
133
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.094,-0.051,0.233
134
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.257,0.028,0.51
135
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.258,0.025,0.439
136
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.121,0.396
137
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.188,-0.505,0.084
138
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.181,-0.467,0.068
139
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.174,-0.512,0.108
140
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.23,-0.399,-0.103
141
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.168,-0.43,0.061
142
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.115,-0.348,0.106
143
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.11,-0.348,0.114
144
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.04,-0.344,0.239
145
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.032,-0.072,0.001
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.056,-0.207,0.083
148
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.065,-0.072,0.196
149
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.233,0.024,0.48
150
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.234,-0.003,0.435
151
- AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.246,0.101,0.385
152
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.125,-0.479,0.207
153
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.118,-0.443,0.192
154
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.111,-0.458,0.209
155
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.165,-0.347,-0.014
156
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.106,-0.432,0.186
157
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.056,-0.342,0.23
158
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.051,-0.342,0.24
159
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,0.016,-0.277,0.339
160
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.023,-0.145,0.143
161
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.053,-0.091,0.172
162
- AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.115,-0.103,0.307
164
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.274,0.067,0.457
165
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.275,0.111,0.436
166
- AutoTheta,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.286,0.089,0.433
167
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.271,-0.478,-0.102
168
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.263,-0.447,-0.122
169
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.256,-0.501,-0.081
170
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.316,-0.502,-0.153
171
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.249,-0.401,-0.132
172
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.193,-0.348,-0.054
173
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.188,-0.348,-0.043
174
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.112,-0.324,0.082
175
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.104,-0.303,0.049
176
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.07,-0.244,0.067
177
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.13,-0.443,0.093
178
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.18,-0.084,0.457
180
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.181,-0.198,0.392
181
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.193,0.079,0.318
182
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.55,-1.461,-0.061
183
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.541,-1.4,-0.077
184
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.531,-1.465,-0.065
185
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.605,-1.289,-0.205
186
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.524,-1.36,-0.074
187
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.455,-1.256,-0.039
188
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.449,-1.256,-0.03
189
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.356,-1.074,0.066
190
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.346,-1.041,-0.029
191
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.305,-0.921,-0.024
192
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.378,-0.841,-0.072
193
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.22,-0.841,0.078
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
194
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- AutoETS,Drift,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.001,-0.5,0.336
196
- AutoETS,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.016,-0.556,0.328
197
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.551,-1.244,0.068
198
- Drift,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.542,-1.191,0.048
199
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.532,-1.251,0.071
200
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.606,-1.122,-0.199
201
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.525,-1.116,0.033
202
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.456,-1.088,0.096
203
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.449,-1.088,0.108
204
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.357,-1.058,0.22
205
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.347,-0.783,-0.026
206
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.305,-0.77,0.003
207
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.379,-0.772,-0.125
208
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.22,-0.646,0.165
209
- Drift,AutoETS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.001,-0.506,0.333
210
- Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Drift,Naive,0.167,0.0,0.5,0.015,-0.161,0.255
212
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.575,-0.952,-0.254
213
- Naive,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.566,-0.909,-0.279
214
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.556,-0.988,-0.234
215
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.631,-0.956,-0.408
216
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.548,-0.833,-0.301
217
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.478,-0.827,-0.212
218
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.472,-0.827,-0.197
219
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.378,-0.821,-0.034
220
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.368,-0.654,-0.138
221
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.326,-0.626,-0.112
222
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.4,-0.764,-0.097
223
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.239,-0.467,-0.086
224
- Naive,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.016,-0.489,0.357
225
- Naive,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,-0.015,-0.342,0.138
226
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.018,-0.024,0.065
4
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.011,0.084
5
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.077,0.047,0.108
6
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.038,0.134
7
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.038,0.134
8
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.075,0.03,0.134
9
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.106,0.06,0.154
10
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.182,0.366
11
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.206,0.369
12
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.232,0.391
13
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.201,0.401
14
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.443,0.261,0.591
15
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.522,0.402,0.632
16
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.454,0.667
17
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.019,-0.069,0.024
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
18
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.021,-0.017,0.056
20
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.06,0.024,0.095
21
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.066,0.024,0.118
22
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.066,0.024,0.118
23
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.057,-0.002,0.112
24
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.089,0.047,0.134
25
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.157,0.371
26
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.184,0.374
27
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.204,0.392
28
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.189,0.401
29
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.239,0.579
30
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.513,0.375,0.635
31
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.56,0.431,0.67
32
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.091,-0.011
33
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.021,-0.059,0.016
34
+ TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.04,-0.005,0.083
36
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,0.006,0.101
37
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,0.006,0.101
38
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.037,0.013,0.064
39
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.07,0.022,0.12
40
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.153,0.343
41
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.176,0.345
42
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.21,0.357
43
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.173,0.377
44
+ TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.225,0.575
45
+ TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.378,0.619
46
+ TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.436,0.656
47
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.084,-0.12,-0.049
48
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.064,-0.105,-0.024
49
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.042,-0.09,0.005
50
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.007,-0.034,0.048
52
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.007,-0.034,0.048
53
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.074,0.064
54
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.031,-0.004,0.071
55
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.221,0.126,0.307
56
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.155,0.311
57
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.158,0.338
58
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.161,0.341
59
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.208,0.548
60
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.34,0.599
61
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.532,0.409,0.638
62
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.155,-0.04
63
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.071,-0.134,-0.025
64
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.112,-0.006
65
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.007,-0.051,0.033
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
66
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
68
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.01,-0.082,0.042
69
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.024,-0.026,0.082
70
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.121,0.303
71
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.145,0.312
72
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.252,0.148,0.333
73
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.14,0.351
74
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.19,0.557
75
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.328,0.604
76
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.406,0.64
77
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.155,-0.04
78
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.071,-0.134,-0.025
79
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.112,-0.006
80
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.007,-0.051,0.033
81
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
82
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.01,-0.082,0.042
84
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.024,-0.026,0.082
85
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.121,0.303
86
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.145,0.312
87
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.252,0.148,0.333
88
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.14,0.351
89
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.19,0.557
90
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.328,0.604
91
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.406,0.64
92
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.081,-0.155,-0.031
93
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.061,-0.126,0.002
94
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.039,-0.068,-0.013
95
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.068,0.069
96
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.01,-0.044,0.076
97
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.01,-0.044,0.076
98
+ Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.034,-0.037,0.105
100
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.223,0.115,0.32
101
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.241,0.135,0.323
102
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.186,0.327
103
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.134,0.355
104
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.398,0.183,0.558
105
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.484,0.361,0.601
106
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.424,0.639
107
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.118,-0.182,-0.064
108
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.155,-0.049
109
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.075,-0.137,-0.022
110
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.032,-0.076,0.004
111
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.025,-0.089,0.026
112
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.025,-0.089,0.026
113
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.035,-0.117,0.036
114
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.196,0.075,0.293
116
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.214,0.116,0.296
117
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.129,0.32
118
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.138,0.322
119
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.2,0.517
120
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.307,0.593
121
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.517,0.382,0.63
122
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.391,-0.576,-0.223
123
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.365,-0.59,-0.186
124
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.337,-0.521,-0.181
125
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.283,-0.442,-0.144
126
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.434,-0.138
127
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.434,-0.138
128
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.287,-0.47,-0.13
129
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.244,-0.415,-0.081
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.023,-0.003,0.057
132
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.046,-0.053,0.122
133
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.046,-0.075,0.154
134
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.225,0.031,0.454
135
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.169,0.472
136
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.251,0.523
137
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.423,-0.586,-0.259
138
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.397,-0.599,-0.225
139
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.368,-0.527,-0.214
140
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.313,-0.452,-0.183
141
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.453,-0.17
142
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.453,-0.17
143
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.317,-0.478,-0.156
144
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.273,-0.421,-0.131
145
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.024,-0.06,0.003
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.024,-0.078,0.095
148
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.024,-0.083,0.116
149
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.207,0.025,0.416
150
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.141,0.464
151
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.232,0.514
152
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.643,-0.303
153
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.644,-0.257
154
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.402,-0.555,-0.267
155
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.346,-0.51,-0.187
156
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.337,-0.499,-0.174
157
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.337,-0.499,-0.174
158
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.486,-0.228
159
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.47,-0.149
160
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.049,-0.139,0.05
161
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.025,-0.106,0.072
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
162
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.429,0.0,0.718,-0.0,-0.126,0.117
164
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.188,-0.039,0.409
165
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.168,0.426
166
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.244,0.476
167
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.67,-0.251
168
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.67,-0.233
169
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.401,-0.605,-0.209
170
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.345,-0.517,-0.192
171
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.542,-0.163
172
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.542,-0.163
173
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.349,-0.549,-0.155
174
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.476,-0.161
175
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.048,-0.182,0.07
176
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.024,-0.132,0.076
177
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.282,1.0,0.0,-0.132,0.112
178
+ AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.188,0.007,0.358
180
+ AutoTheta,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.304,0.124,0.431
181
+ AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.225,0.483
182
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.795,-1.442,-0.353
183
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.377,-0.314
184
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.726,-1.355,-0.29
185
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.656,-1.212,-0.263
186
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.645,-1.259,-0.234
187
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.645,-1.259,-0.234
188
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.661,-1.263,-0.224
189
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.605,-1.069,-0.251
190
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.291,-0.831,-0.032
191
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.261,-0.713,-0.025
192
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.231,-0.693,0.037
193
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.231,-0.558,-0.007
194
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.143,-0.329,0.392
196
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.225,-0.164,0.446
197
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.094,-1.716,-0.672
198
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.055,-1.74,-0.6
199
+ Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.013,-1.625,-0.609
200
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.932,-1.494,-0.515
201
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.919,-1.523,-0.488
202
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.919,-1.523,-0.488
203
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.937,-1.509,-0.564
204
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.872,-1.455,-0.443
205
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.506,-0.892,-0.203
206
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-0.866,-0.164
207
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.436,-0.742,-0.202
208
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.436,-0.759,-0.141
209
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.166,-0.644,0.247
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.096,0.059,0.132
212
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.316,-2.005,-0.833
213
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.273,-2.03,-0.758
214
+ Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.226,-1.905,-0.772
215
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.137,-1.766,-0.692
216
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.123,-1.78,-0.683
217
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.123,-1.78,-0.683
218
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.143,-1.769,-0.735
219
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.071,-1.702,-0.619
220
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.665,-1.096,-0.335
221
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.627,-1.057,-0.301
222
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.907,-0.322
223
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.589,-0.934,-0.291
224
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.29,-0.804,0.141
225
+ Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.106,-0.152,-0.063
226
+ Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.007,-0.023,0.028
4
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.034,-0.009,0.071
5
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.023,-0.172,0.15
6
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.038,0.004,0.066
7
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.102,0.034,0.185
8
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.102,0.035,0.185
9
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.28,0.009,0.477
10
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.293,0.012,0.502
11
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.202,0.132,0.272
12
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.392,-0.011,0.646
13
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.352,0.188,0.494
14
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.752,0.299,0.939
15
- Chronos-2,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.681,0.322,0.822
16
- Chronos-2,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.699,0.498,0.807
17
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.007,-0.028,0.022
18
- TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.027,-0.028,0.08
20
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.016,-0.147,0.128
21
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.031,0.019,0.046
22
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.095,0.038,0.165
23
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.096,0.039,0.165
24
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.275,0.03,0.462
25
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.288,0.027,0.486
26
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.196,0.118,0.288
27
- TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.388,-0.001,0.64
28
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.193,0.482
29
- TiRex,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.752,0.306,0.939
30
- TiRex,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.678,0.337,0.817
31
- TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.697,0.509,0.801
32
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.333,0.0,0.833,-0.035,-0.077,0.008
33
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.833,-0.028,-0.087,0.027
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.5,1.0,-0.011,-0.23,0.111
36
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.004,-0.062,0.066
37
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.07,-0.008,0.146
38
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.071,-0.006,0.146
39
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.255,-0.032,0.469
40
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.268,-0.035,0.481
41
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.174,0.121,0.238
42
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.371,-0.057,0.643
43
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.329,0.139,0.492
44
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.746,0.267,0.938
45
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.67,0.274,0.815
46
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.689,0.464,0.803
47
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.024,-0.176,0.146
48
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.016,-0.147,0.128
49
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,0.011,-0.125,0.187
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
50
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.015,-0.12,0.156
52
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.08,-0.05,0.208
53
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.081,-0.05,0.21
54
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.263,0.098,0.418
55
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.277,0.111,0.435
56
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.183,0.05,0.37
57
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.378,0.09,0.614
58
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.337,0.228,0.45
59
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.756,0.36,0.94
60
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.673,0.41,0.792
61
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.692,0.563,0.776
62
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.039,-0.071,-0.004
63
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.032,-0.048,-0.019
64
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.004,-0.071,0.059
65
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.016,-0.184,0.107
66
- Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.066,0.009,0.141
68
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.067,0.011,0.142
69
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.252,-0.001,0.445
70
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.265,-0.005,0.465
71
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.17,0.087,0.268
72
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.368,-0.029,0.624
73
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.327,0.174,0.459
74
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.745,0.286,0.938
75
- Toto-1.0,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.668,0.32,0.811
76
- Toto-1.0,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.687,0.496,0.795
77
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.113,-0.227,-0.035
78
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.105,-0.198,-0.039
79
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.075,-0.171,0.008
80
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.087,-0.262,0.048
81
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.071,-0.164,-0.009
82
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.5,0.75,0.001,0.0,0.003
84
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.199,-0.031,0.384
85
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.213,-0.038,0.406
86
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.112,-0.005,0.231
87
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.323,-0.077,0.589
88
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.279,0.104,0.427
89
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.728,0.239,0.933
90
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.645,0.267,0.797
91
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.665,0.45,0.783
92
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.114,-0.227,-0.037
93
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.106,-0.198,-0.041
94
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.076,-0.171,0.006
95
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.089,-0.266,0.048
96
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.072,-0.166,-0.011
97
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.25,0.5,-0.001,-0.003,0.0
98
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.198,-0.035,0.384
100
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.213,-0.04,0.406
101
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.111,-0.005,0.228
102
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.323,-0.079,0.589
103
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.278,0.103,0.427
104
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.728,0.237,0.933
105
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.644,0.265,0.797
106
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.665,0.448,0.783
107
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.389,-0.914,-0.009
108
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.379,-0.859,-0.031
109
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.342,-0.882,0.031
110
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.357,-0.719,-0.108
111
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.336,-0.802,0.001
112
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.248,-0.622,0.031
113
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.247,-0.622,0.034
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
114
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.019,-0.018,0.061
116
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.109,-0.566,0.253
117
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.156,-0.044,0.35
118
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.1,-0.094,0.239
119
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.683,0.184,0.924
120
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.557,0.28,0.705
121
- AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.451,0.681
122
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.415,-1.006,-0.012
123
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.405,-0.945,-0.028
124
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.367,-0.928,0.034
125
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.383,-0.769,-0.125
126
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.361,-0.87,0.005
127
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.271,-0.684,0.036
128
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.27,-0.684,0.038
129
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.019,-0.064,0.018
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.13,-0.601,0.243
132
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.14,-0.038,0.335
133
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.083,-0.124,0.234
134
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.683,0.188,0.925
135
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.548,0.288,0.687
136
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.574,0.454,0.665
137
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.253,-0.374,-0.152
138
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.244,-0.405,-0.134
139
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.21,-0.312,-0.137
140
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.224,-0.588,-0.052
141
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.205,-0.366,-0.095
142
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.126,-0.3,0.005
143
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.124,-0.296,0.005
144
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.098,-0.339,0.362
145
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.115,-0.32,0.375
146
- Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.238,-0.28,0.565
148
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.188,-0.079,0.382
149
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.704,0.085,0.93
150
- Sundial-Base,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.6,0.067,0.776
151
- Sundial-Base,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.623,0.311,0.761
152
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.645,-1.824,0.011
153
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.633,-1.777,0.001
154
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.589,-1.799,0.054
155
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.607,-1.589,-0.099
156
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.583,-1.658,0.029
157
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.478,-1.434,0.072
158
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.476,-1.434,0.073
159
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.184,-0.538,0.043
160
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.162,-0.504,0.037
161
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.313,-1.297,0.219
162
- AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.066,-0.477,0.204
164
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.654,0.026,0.921
165
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.475,0.209,0.627
166
- AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.354,0.614
167
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.543,-0.975,-0.231
168
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.532,-0.93,-0.239
169
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.491,-0.968,-0.161
170
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.508,-0.818,-0.295
171
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.485,-0.849,-0.211
172
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.387,-0.746,-0.116
173
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.385,-0.746,-0.115
174
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.111,-0.314,0.086
175
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.091,-0.306,0.11
176
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.232,-0.619,0.073
177
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.062,-0.256,0.323
178
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.665,0.116,0.923
180
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.507,0.116,0.661
181
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.536,0.351,0.634
182
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-3.037,-15.271,-0.426
183
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-3.027,-15.358,-0.44
184
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.931,-15.116,-0.364
185
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.096,-15.531,-0.563
186
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-2.918,-15.088,-0.401
187
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.679,-13.834,-0.315
188
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.675,-13.819,-0.31
189
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.159,-12.225,-0.225
190
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.159,-12.252,-0.232
191
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-2.379,-13.371,-0.093
192
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.333,0.0,0.833,-1.892,-11.649,-0.027
193
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.333,0.0,0.667,-1.981,-12.033,-0.132
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
194
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- AutoETS,Drift,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.807,-8.666,0.454
196
- AutoETS,Naive,0.667,0.333,1.0,-0.675,-8.314,0.436
197
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.133,-4.611,-0.475
198
- Drift,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.11,-4.46,-0.507
199
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.027,-4.414,-0.378
200
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.061,-3.816,-0.695
201
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.014,-4.284,-0.47
202
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.815,-3.923,-0.365
203
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.812,-3.923,-0.36
204
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.256,-2.387,-0.39
205
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.214,-2.191,-0.405
206
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.501,-3.469,-0.072
207
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.905,-1.681,-0.264
208
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.03,-1.948,-0.132
209
- Drift,AutoETS,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.446,-0.833,0.897
210
- Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Drift,Naive,0.167,0.0,0.5,0.058,-0.083,0.268
212
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.325,-4.17,-0.994
213
- Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.3,-4.031,-1.035
214
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.212,-4.075,-0.867
215
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.248,-3.474,-1.286
216
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.199,-3.87,-0.984
217
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.987,-3.6,-0.818
218
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.984,-3.6,-0.812
219
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.394,-2.135,-0.823
220
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.35,-1.984,-0.831
221
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.654,-3.189,-0.451
222
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.021,-1.589,-0.549
223
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.083,0.0,0.25,-1.154,-1.731,-0.541
224
- Naive,AutoETS,0.333,0.0,0.667,0.403,-0.772,0.893
225
- Naive,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,-0.061,-0.366,0.077
226
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.023,-0.013,0.065
4
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.037,0.014,0.072
5
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.097,0.054,0.147
6
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.179
7
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.179
8
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.079,0.044,0.13
9
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.158,0.123,0.197
10
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.263,0.484
11
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.284,0.5
12
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.445,0.347,0.528
13
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.589,0.369,0.738
14
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.861,0.529,0.958
15
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.715,0.819
16
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.729,0.831
17
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.024,-0.07,0.013
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
18
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.014,-0.025,0.047
20
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.037,0.111
21
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.043,0.149
22
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.043,0.149
23
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.005,0.106
24
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.138,0.104,0.173
25
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.245,0.478
26
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.27,0.494
27
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.315,0.529
28
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.58,0.351,0.739
29
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.858,0.504,0.958
30
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.703,0.819
31
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.781,0.718,0.829
32
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.078,-0.015
33
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.014,-0.049,0.024
34
+ TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.063,0.005,0.121
36
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.075,0.017,0.156
37
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.075,0.017,0.156
38
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.044,0.026,0.064
39
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.081,0.169
40
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.233,0.47
41
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.389,0.254,0.486
42
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.424,0.325,0.511
43
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.574,0.347,0.73
44
+ TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.857,0.501,0.957
45
+ TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.765,0.699,0.814
46
+ TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.71,0.827
47
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.108,-0.173,-0.057
48
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.125,-0.038
49
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.067,-0.138,-0.005
50
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.013,-0.053,0.078
52
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.013,-0.053,0.078
53
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.02,-0.103,0.057
54
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.067,0.044,0.094
55
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.321,0.209,0.427
56
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.236,0.448
57
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.279,0.482
58
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.545,0.314,0.713
59
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.853,0.488,0.957
60
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.749,0.689,0.798
61
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.763,0.706,0.81
62
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.218,-0.052
63
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.175,-0.045
64
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.081,-0.185,-0.017
65
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.014,-0.085,0.05
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
66
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
68
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.034,-0.136,0.036
69
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.054,-0.008,0.102
70
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.2,0.406
71
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.34,0.221,0.428
72
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.246,0.48
73
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.305,0.707
74
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.846,0.441,0.956
75
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.672,0.803
76
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.688,0.814
77
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.218,-0.052
78
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.175,-0.045
79
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.081,-0.185,-0.017
80
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.014,-0.085,0.05
81
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
82
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.034,-0.136,0.036
84
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.054,-0.008,0.102
85
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.2,0.406
86
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.34,0.221,0.428
87
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.246,0.48
88
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.305,0.707
89
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.846,0.441,0.956
90
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.672,0.803
91
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.688,0.814
92
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.086,-0.149,-0.046
93
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.118,-0.005
94
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.046,-0.068,-0.027
95
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.02,-0.061,0.093
96
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.033,-0.038,0.12
97
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.033,-0.038,0.12
98
+ Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.085,0.022,0.142
100
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.334,0.191,0.448
101
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.362,0.222,0.465
102
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.296,0.483
103
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.554,0.316,0.717
104
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.852,0.474,0.956
105
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.754,0.681,0.808
106
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.693,0.821
107
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.187,-0.246,-0.141
108
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.16,-0.209,-0.116
109
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.143,-0.204,-0.088
110
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.071,-0.104,-0.046
111
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.057,-0.113,0.008
112
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.057,-0.113,0.008
113
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.093,-0.165,-0.022
114
+ Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.272,0.151,0.385
116
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.302,0.173,0.402
117
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.232,0.438
118
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.513,0.269,0.689
119
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.843,0.442,0.955
120
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.731,0.666,0.784
121
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.682,0.796
122
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.631,-0.94,-0.357
123
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.914,-0.324
124
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.571,-0.886,-0.304
125
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.472,-0.745,-0.264
126
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.452,-0.683,-0.25
127
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.452,-0.683,-0.25
128
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.502,-0.811,-0.236
129
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.374,-0.625,-0.178
130
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.714,1.0,0.041,0.015,0.069
132
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.096,-0.069,0.206
133
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.33,0.113,0.521
134
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.791,0.274,0.938
135
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.631,0.546,0.695
136
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.651,0.571,0.713
137
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.701,-0.999,-0.397
138
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-0.976,-0.371
139
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.638,-0.945,-0.341
140
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.813,-0.309
141
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.514,-0.747,-0.284
142
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.514,-0.747,-0.284
143
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.566,-0.87,-0.285
144
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.433,-0.671,-0.209
145
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.286,-0.043,-0.074,-0.015
146
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.057,-0.109,0.167
148
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.302,0.084,0.495
149
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.256,0.936
150
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.532,0.676
151
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.636,0.556,0.696
152
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.803,-1.12,-0.532
153
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.122,-0.461
154
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.737,-1.043,-0.481
155
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.628,-0.932,-0.386
156
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.925,-0.327
157
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.925,-0.327
158
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-0.933,-0.421
159
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.519,-0.778,-0.301
160
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.106,-0.26,0.065
161
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.06,-0.2,0.098
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
162
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.26,0.012,0.46
164
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.778,0.206,0.936
165
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.53,0.64
166
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.614,0.55,0.664
167
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.436,-2.82,-0.586
168
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.38,-2.827,-0.54
169
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.346,-2.701,-0.532
170
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.199,-2.482,-0.457
171
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.169,-2.408,-0.438
172
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.169,-2.408,-0.438
173
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.244,-2.536,-0.463
174
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.052,-2.216,-0.369
175
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.494,-1.086,-0.127
176
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.432,-0.982,-0.092
177
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.351,-0.851,-0.012
178
+ AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.709,0.014,0.907
180
+ AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.448,0.276,0.575
181
+ AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.316,0.596
182
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-6.206,-22.787,-1.121
183
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-6.041,-22.595,-1.017
184
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.978,-22.199,-1.005
185
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.785,-22.0,-0.955
186
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.505,-21.538,-0.789
187
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.505,-21.538,-0.789
188
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.741,-21.621,-0.902
189
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.386,-21.067,-0.793
190
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.792,-15.18,-0.376
191
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.671,-14.743,-0.344
192
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.714,-3.515,-14.714,-0.259
193
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-2.44,-9.777,-0.015
194
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.172,-7.111,0.408
196
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.082,-6.896,0.433
197
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.415,-4.522,-2.508
198
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.313,-4.533,-2.371
199
+ Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.252,-4.38,-2.317
200
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.985,-3.944,-2.212
201
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.932,-4.07,-2.049
202
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.932,-4.07,-2.049
203
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.067,-4.197,-2.134
204
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.72,-3.631,-1.992
205
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.707,-2.284,-1.203
206
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.596,-2.091,-1.136
207
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.449,-1.777,-1.126
208
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.813,-1.353,-0.382
209
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.54,-0.69,0.877
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.037,0.073
212
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.671,-4.925,-2.692
213
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.563,-4.855,-2.551
214
+ Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.499,-4.779,-2.453
215
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.216,-4.258,-2.402
216
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.16,-4.369,-2.205
217
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.16,-4.369,-2.205
218
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.303,-4.59,-2.253
219
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.935,-3.9,-2.148
220
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.864,-2.486,-1.33
221
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.747,-2.291,-1.255
222
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.59,-1.972,-1.221
223
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.918,-1.476,-0.462
224
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.52,-0.765,0.873
225
+ Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.079,-0.038
226
+ Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Chronos-2,87.75510204081634,30.497126962065213,0.0,1.2207885477272729,0.0,0.0
3
- TiRex,87.75510204081634,28.929993008935707,0.0,0.22086016883116882,0.0,0.0
4
- TimesFM-2.5,69.3877551020408,27.897712615827363,0.0,3.029942118181818,0.0,0.0
5
- Chronos-Bolt,65.81632653061223,26.1953757312394,0.0,0.2863284199134199,0.0,0.0
6
- Toto-1.0,60.204081632653065,23.116505027318457,0.0,22.23460966136364,0.0,0.0
7
- Stat. Ensemble,54.08163265306123,19.483181611552936,0.0,326.0961104430194,0.0,14.285714285714285
8
- TabPFN-TS,53.06122448979591,24.364747788672158,0.0,82.75914924545454,0.0,0.0
9
- Moirai-2.0,51.53061224489795,21.62561301743583,0.0,0.30303544404761906,0.42857142857142855,0.0
10
- Sundial-Base,51.02040816326531,21.824543473624225,0.0,8.178181660238096,0.0,0.0
11
- AutoTheta,46.93877551020408,20.695726985214247,0.0,3.516469010952381,0.0,0.0
12
- AutoARIMA,36.734693877551024,16.580678081858668,0.0,45.50572387840909,0.0,14.285714285714285
13
- AutoETS,34.69387755102041,-12.099205356952947,0.0,7.976041772727273,0.0,0.0
14
- Drift,26.530612244897956,7.623192159303982,0.0,0.9546919150000002,0.0,0.0
15
- Naive,16.3265306122449,5.632467591646206,0.0,1.0228832204761906,0.0,0.0
16
- Seasonal Naive,8.16326530612245,0.0,0.0,0.9169890385714287,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Chronos-2,94.28571428571429,32.667973146499854,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0
3
+ TiRex,85.71428571428574,29.26035003209091,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0
4
+ Chronos-Bolt,75.0,28.93605729975306,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0
5
+ TimesFM-2.5,74.28571428571429,29.39415793791812,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0
6
+ Toto-1.0,65.71428571428571,27.758201124904257,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0
7
+ Moirai-2.0,65.00000000000001,27.39923273556282,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0
8
+ Sundial-Base,64.28571428571426,27.294413131182793,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0
9
+ Stat. Ensemble,44.28571428571429,17.869279200778998,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0
10
+ TabPFN-TS,44.28571428571429,23.16876937964092,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0
11
+ AutoTheta,41.42857142857142,21.542038855355507,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0
12
+ AutoARIMA,28.571428571428577,13.898849494465237,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0
13
+ AutoETS,25.714285714285722,-29.62269544506979,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0
14
+ Naive,20.0,7.79560161047943,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0
15
+ Drift,12.85714285714286,4.07870004962435,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0
16
+ Seasonal Naive,8.571428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Chronos-2,92.85714285714288,36.382587745113646,0.0,1.2207885477272729,0.0,0.0
3
- TiRex,91.83673469387756,35.0706905436059,0.0,0.22086016883116882,0.0,0.0
4
- TimesFM-2.5,70.40816326530611,33.26259738148211,0.0,3.029942118181818,0.0,0.0
5
- Chronos-Bolt,69.89795918367346,31.785831178509618,0.0,0.2863284199134199,0.0,0.0
6
- TabPFN-TS,66.32653061224491,30.553466306238843,0.0,82.75914924545454,0.0,0.0
7
- Toto-1.0,62.24489795918367,29.92819999698506,0.0,22.23460966136364,0.0,0.0
8
- Moirai-2.0,55.61224489795919,27.592638035700944,0.0,0.30303544404761906,0.42857142857142855,0.0
9
- Stat. Ensemble,52.04081632653062,16.34131324477024,0.0,326.0961104430194,0.0,14.285714285714285
10
- AutoARIMA,44.89795918367347,18.654282393699383,0.0,45.50572387840909,0.0,14.285714285714285
11
- Sundial-Base,42.85714285714285,22.97655424697571,0.0,8.178181660238096,0.0,0.0
12
- AutoETS,28.57142857142857,-100.14545865598201,0.0,7.976041772727273,0.0,0.0
13
- AutoTheta,26.530612244897956,2.844580213482706,0.0,3.516469010952381,0.0,0.0
14
- Seasonal Naive,17.346938775510203,0.0,0.0,0.9169890385714287,0.0,0.0
15
- Drift,16.3265306122449,-14.734289645185616,0.0,0.9546919150000002,0.0,0.0
16
- Naive,12.244897959183671,-16.315361039765854,0.0,1.0228832204761906,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Chronos-2,94.28571428571429,40.14261348186017,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0
3
+ TiRex,88.57142857142858,37.438763337724154,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0
4
+ TimesFM-2.5,77.14285714285715,37.18832201208502,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0
5
+ Chronos-Bolt,75.00000000000001,36.03582794812101,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0
6
+ Moirai-2.0,67.85714285714286,34.853090715125255,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0
7
+ Toto-1.0,67.14285714285715,35.98014019395901,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0
8
+ TabPFN-TS,59.999999999999986,32.14384784602691,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0
9
+ Sundial-Base,52.85714285714286,30.909915121590082,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0
10
+ Stat. Ensemble,44.28571428571429,13.94260028599177,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0
11
+ AutoARIMA,38.57142857142858,17.778704714011372,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0
12
+ AutoETS,27.142857142857153,-136.42889695356527,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0
13
+ AutoTheta,20.0,-2.8417921456300954,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0
14
+ Seasonal Naive,20.0,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0
15
+ Naive,12.85714285714286,-23.56398392435097,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0
16
+ Drift,4.2857142857142865,-28.213326844738162,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- TiRex,79.59183673469387,40.186105154065274,0.0,0.22086016883116882,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,78.57142857142857,40.705400799173944,0.0,1.2207885477272729,0.0,0.0
4
- TimesFM-2.5,72.44897959183673,39.71301301045573,0.0,3.029942118181818,0.0,0.0
5
- Toto-1.0,71.42857142857142,38.015338187520356,0.0,22.23460966136364,0.0,0.0
6
- Chronos-Bolt,64.79591836734696,37.474958160131976,0.0,0.2863284199134199,0.0,0.0
7
- TabPFN-TS,62.244897959183675,37.3159595613183,0.0,82.75914924545454,0.0,0.0
8
- Stat. Ensemble,53.06122448979591,23.729471306196494,0.0,326.0961104430194,0.0,14.285714285714285
9
- Moirai-2.0,50.51020408163266,33.75926497739168,0.0,0.30303544404761906,0.42857142857142855,0.0
10
- AutoTheta,46.938775510204074,32.22717023498179,0.0,3.516469010952381,0.0,0.0
11
- AutoETS,42.857142857142854,1.699868730786347,0.0,7.976041772727273,0.0,0.0
12
- AutoARIMA,35.71428571428573,8.157108575448458,0.0,45.50572387840909,0.0,14.285714285714285
13
- Sundial-Base,35.71428571428572,25.06871812266033,0.0,8.178181660238096,0.0,0.0
14
- Drift,25.510204081632647,15.503053940810641,0.0,0.9546919150000002,0.0,0.0
15
- Naive,20.40816326530612,18.858044072466562,0.0,1.0228832204761906,0.0,0.0
16
- Seasonal Naive,10.20408163265306,0.0,0.0,0.9169890385714287,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Chronos-2,87.14285714285714,47.03832907322194,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0
3
+ TiRex,81.42857142857144,45.265501615714086,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0
4
+ Toto-1.0,80.0,45.61982323609455,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0
5
+ TimesFM-2.5,75.71428571428572,45.23435046646812,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0
6
+ Chronos-Bolt,73.57142857142857,44.27099700478807,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0
7
+ Moirai-2.0,66.42857142857143,43.560110598131054,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0
8
+ TabPFN-TS,57.14285714285714,41.536751954528484,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0
9
+ AutoTheta,42.85714285714287,37.25192023085951,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0
10
+ Sundial-Base,42.857142857142854,32.159160649999954,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0
11
+ Stat. Ensemble,41.428571428571445,24.4398588876512,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0
12
+ AutoETS,32.85714285714286,-7.089562721947629,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0
13
+ Naive,24.28571428571429,25.36480685722543,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0
14
+ AutoARIMA,21.428571428571427,2.7732156741662517,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0
15
+ Drift,12.857142857142856,15.77773764677779,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0
16
+ Seasonal Naive,10.0,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- TiRex,83.67346938775509,55.845887240463945,0.0,0.22086016883116882,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,81.63265306122449,56.29067190301464,0.0,1.2207885477272729,0.0,0.0
4
- TimesFM-2.5,75.51020408163265,55.93935384077703,0.0,3.029942118181818,0.0,0.0
5
- Toto-1.0,73.46938775510203,54.33015876380617,0.0,22.23460966136364,0.0,0.0
6
- Chronos-Bolt,71.9387755102041,53.88724931110583,0.0,0.2863284199134199,0.0,0.0
7
- TabPFN-TS,68.36734693877553,54.38713321564093,0.0,82.75914924545454,0.0,0.0
8
- Moirai-2.0,55.61224489795919,51.33483781629431,0.0,0.30303544404761906,0.42857142857142855,0.0
9
- Stat. Ensemble,53.06122448979592,15.451233242065076,0.0,326.0961104430194,0.0,14.285714285714285
10
- AutoARIMA,48.979591836734706,20.43246116076548,0.0,45.50572387840909,0.0,14.285714285714285
11
- Sundial-Base,38.775510204081634,41.11912582586918,0.0,8.178181660238096,0.0,0.0
12
- AutoETS,29.59183673469387,-93.15158001036382,0.0,7.976041772727273,0.0,0.0
13
- AutoTheta,23.46938775510204,-9.985676915157615,0.0,3.516469010952381,0.0,0.0
14
- Seasonal Naive,22.448979591836736,0.0,0.0,0.9169890385714287,0.0,0.0
15
- Drift,12.244897959183671,-38.89991385039795,0.0,0.9546919150000002,0.0,0.0
16
- Naive,11.224489795918368,-39.372276784080775,0.0,1.0228832204761906,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Chronos-2,85.71428571428571,65.09181820346713,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0
3
+ TimesFM-2.5,82.85714285714286,65.02250890387694,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0
4
+ Toto-1.0,80.00000000000001,64.38827870406145,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0
5
+ TiRex,80.0,63.90155569021483,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0
6
+ Chronos-Bolt,75.0,63.277941068455476,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0
7
+ Moirai-2.0,72.14285714285714,62.94483721241358,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0
8
+ TabPFN-TS,62.85714285714283,62.612284025823264,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0
9
+ Sundial-Base,48.57142857142857,52.74866339373276,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0
10
+ Stat. Ensemble,42.85714285714287,13.563254966732108,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0
11
+ AutoARIMA,40.0,21.289551980691435,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0
12
+ AutoETS,25.71428571428572,-162.51813043287368,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0
13
+ Seasonal Naive,25.71428571428571,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0
14
+ AutoTheta,15.714285714285717,-21.431026747836324,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0
15
+ Naive,10.0,-59.16477242087295,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0
16
+ Drift,2.857142857142857,-65.48141501493944,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.022,-0.026,0.067
4
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.036,-0.006,0.077
5
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.058,0.025,0.085
6
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.096,0.023,0.177
7
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.137,0.043,0.249
8
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.081,0.015,0.138
9
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.113,0.042,0.192
10
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.111,0.054,0.161
11
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.124,0.074,0.169
12
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.069,0.271
13
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.092,0.666
14
- Chronos-2,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.248,0.149,0.335
15
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.185,0.334
16
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.305,0.228,0.366
17
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.023,-0.072,0.025
18
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.014,-0.028,0.045
20
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.037,-0.005,0.088
21
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.076,-0.005,0.187
22
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.117,0.034,0.21
23
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.06,0.031,0.092
24
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.093,0.015,0.201
25
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.091,0.017,0.162
26
- TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.104,0.042,0.159
27
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.148,0.082,0.227
28
- TiRex,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.366,0.082,0.652
29
- TiRex,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.231,0.144,0.31
30
- TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.162,0.325
31
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.211,0.364
32
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.037,-0.084,0.006
33
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.015,-0.047,0.027
34
- TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.023,-0.03,0.072
36
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.062,-0.007,0.162
37
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.105,-0.005,0.227
38
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,-0.007,0.103
39
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.08,-0.001,0.179
40
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.078,0.006,0.139
41
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.091,0.018,0.148
42
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.136,0.042,0.246
43
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.357,0.046,0.646
44
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.219,0.122,0.292
45
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.165,0.302
46
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.279,0.183,0.362
47
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.062,-0.093,-0.026
48
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.038,-0.096,0.005
49
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.024,-0.077,0.029
50
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.04,-0.024,0.115
52
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.083,-0.01,0.191
53
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.024,-0.049,0.08
54
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.786,0.571,0.929,0.058,0.01,0.126
55
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,0.015,0.106
56
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.069,0.019,0.12
57
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.115,0.018,0.215
58
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.342,0.033,0.644
59
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.201,0.097,0.296
60
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.146,0.287
61
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.19,0.325
62
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.106,-0.216,-0.023
63
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.082,-0.23,0.005
64
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.066,-0.194,0.007
65
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.042,-0.13,0.024
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
66
  Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.045,-0.131,0.204
68
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,-0.017,-0.179,0.083
69
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.019,-0.027,0.054
70
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.017,-0.072,0.097
71
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.031,-0.075,0.11
72
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.078,-0.093,0.222
73
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.314,-0.082,0.635
74
- Toto-1.0,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.168,0.047,0.265
75
- Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.185,0.131,0.246
76
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.231,0.138,0.317
77
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.158,-0.332,-0.045
78
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.133,-0.265,-0.036
79
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.117,-0.293,0.005
80
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.091,-0.236,0.01
81
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.047,-0.257,0.116
82
- Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.065,-0.185,0.034
84
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.027,-0.211,0.122
85
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.03,-0.195,0.098
86
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,-0.015,-0.159,0.063
87
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.643,0.286,0.929,0.035,-0.0,0.071
88
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.282,-0.034,0.607
89
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.128,-0.031,0.253
90
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.147,-0.032,0.269
91
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.195,0.11,0.286
92
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.088,-0.16,-0.016
93
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.064,-0.101,-0.033
94
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.114,0.007
95
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.025,-0.087,0.046
96
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,0.016,-0.09,0.152
97
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.061,-0.035,0.156
98
- TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.035,-0.072,0.161
100
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.032,-0.071,0.134
101
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.046,-0.026,0.118
102
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.093,0.029,0.17
103
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.325,0.026,0.631
104
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.181,0.088,0.266
105
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.097,0.291
106
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.171,0.314
107
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.128,-0.237,-0.044
108
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.103,-0.252,-0.016
109
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.087,-0.217,0.001
110
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.214,0.071,0.429,-0.062,-0.144,-0.01
111
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.019,-0.057,0.026
112
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.027,-0.139,0.175
113
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.036,-0.191,0.067
114
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.074,0.058
116
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.012,-0.083,0.093
117
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.06,-0.106,0.197
118
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.301,-0.089,0.62
119
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.152,0.014,0.269
120
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.169,0.101,0.243
121
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.216,0.12,0.308
122
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.125,-0.192,-0.057
123
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.1,-0.193,-0.018
124
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.084,-0.161,-0.006
125
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.059,-0.118,-0.015
126
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.017,-0.108,0.067
127
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.029,-0.109,0.163
128
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.034,-0.155,0.067
129
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.062,0.069
130
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.014,-0.089,0.087
132
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.063,-0.074,0.185
133
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.303,-0.051,0.619
134
- Sundial-Base,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.154,0.001,0.274
135
- Sundial-Base,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.172,0.073,0.259
136
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.218,0.1,0.309
137
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.141,-0.203,-0.08
138
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.116,-0.189,-0.044
139
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.1,-0.174,-0.019
140
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.075,-0.136,-0.019
141
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.031,-0.124,0.069
142
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,0.015,-0.067,0.137
143
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.049,-0.133,0.026
144
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.012,-0.102,0.077
145
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.014,-0.096,0.081
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
146
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.049,-0.048,0.167
148
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.293,-0.013,0.601
149
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.142,0.066,0.229
150
- AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.16,0.089,0.232
151
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.207,0.135,0.276
152
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.2,-0.372,-0.074
153
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.174,-0.294,-0.089
154
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.157,-0.326,-0.044
155
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.13,-0.275,-0.018
156
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.085,-0.285,0.085
157
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.357,0.071,0.714,-0.036,-0.076,0.0
158
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.103,-0.204,-0.03
159
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.064,-0.245,0.096
160
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.067,-0.227,0.069
161
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.052,-0.201,0.045
162
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.256,-0.074,0.59
164
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.097,-0.053,0.207
165
- AutoARIMA,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.116,-0.06,0.238
166
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.166,0.08,0.26
167
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.613,-1.993,-0.101
168
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.577,-1.874,-0.089
169
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.555,-1.828,-0.048
170
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.519,-1.806,-0.034
171
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.458,-1.738,0.076
172
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.392,-1.546,0.033
173
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.482,-1.711,-0.027
174
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.43,-1.633,0.082
175
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.434,-1.623,0.049
176
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.414,-1.504,0.013
177
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.344,-1.441,0.069
178
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- AutoETS,Drift,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.213,-1.059,0.185
180
- AutoETS,Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.188,-1.084,0.218
181
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,-0.121,-1.109,0.231
182
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.329,-0.503,-0.176
183
- Drift,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.3,-0.449,-0.169
184
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.281,-0.412,-0.138
185
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.252,-0.42,-0.107
186
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.202,-0.361,-0.049
187
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.147,-0.339,0.03
188
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.221,-0.362,-0.096
189
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.179,-0.368,-0.014
190
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.182,-0.378,-0.001
191
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.165,-0.297,-0.07
192
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.107,-0.261,0.05
193
- Drift,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.176,-0.226,0.514
194
- Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- Drift,Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.021,-0.043,0.093
196
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.076,-0.076,0.197
197
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.358,-0.502,-0.227
198
- Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.328,-0.481,-0.193
199
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.432,-0.198
200
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.402,-0.171
201
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.227,-0.327,-0.15
202
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.172,-0.369,0.031
203
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.41,-0.108
204
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.204,-0.322,-0.112
205
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.207,-0.349,-0.078
206
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.19,-0.301,-0.098
207
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.131,-0.312,0.057
208
- Naive,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.158,-0.278,0.52
209
- Naive,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.022,-0.102,0.042
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.056,-0.071,0.183
212
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.439,-0.578,-0.295
213
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.572,-0.267
214
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.387,-0.568,-0.225
215
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.355,-0.482,-0.234
216
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.301,-0.464,-0.16
217
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.242,-0.401,-0.123
218
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.322,-0.459,-0.206
219
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.276,-0.444,-0.137
220
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.279,-0.446,-0.112
221
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.261,-0.382,-0.156
222
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.199,-0.352,-0.087
223
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,0.108,-0.3,0.526
224
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.083,-0.245,0.071
225
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.06,-0.224,0.066
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
226
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,0.005,0.089
4
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.053,0.015,0.087
5
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.046,-0.001,0.096
6
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.068,0.024,0.124
7
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.024,0.118
8
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.074,0.027,0.116
9
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.066,0.314
10
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.124,0.076,0.155
11
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.142,0.1,0.196
12
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.121,0.333
13
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.481,0.137,0.781
14
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.27,0.18,0.35
15
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.207,0.379
16
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.263,0.388
17
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.097,-0.005
18
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.005,-0.016,0.023
20
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.002,-0.053,0.035
21
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.021,-0.028,0.066
22
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.026,0.004,0.054
23
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.027,-0.0,0.055
24
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.139,0.038,0.264
25
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.079,0.058,0.112
26
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.098,0.035,0.158
27
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.103,0.272
28
+ TiRex,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.454,0.08,0.77
29
+ TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.143,0.307
30
+ TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.174,0.336
31
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.222,0.364
32
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.055,-0.095,-0.016
33
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.005,-0.024,0.015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
34
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.064,0.045
36
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.016,-0.034,0.074
37
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.021,0.0,0.042
38
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,-0.002,0.045
39
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.135,0.035,0.262
40
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.075,0.054,0.096
41
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.038,0.147
42
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.106,0.27
43
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.452,0.092,0.768
44
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.131,0.311
45
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.165,0.342
46
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.231,0.351
47
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.106,0.001
48
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.002,-0.037,0.05
49
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.047,0.06
50
+ TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,0.004,0.038
52
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.027,-0.016,0.068
53
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.029,-0.029,0.08
54
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.14,0.001,0.301
55
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.081,0.032,0.13
56
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.1,0.026,0.153
57
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.075,0.308
58
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.455,0.061,0.769
59
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.178,0.286
60
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.206,0.317
61
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.196,0.38
62
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.073,-0.141,-0.025
63
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.021,-0.07,0.027
64
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.017,-0.08,0.033
65
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.039,-0.004
66
  Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.005,-0.05,0.053
68
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.063,0.06
69
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.12,-0.031,0.28
70
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.06,0.009,0.111
71
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.079,-0.01,0.149
72
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.161,0.045,0.292
73
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.443,0.023,0.768
74
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.157,0.276
75
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.185,0.308
76
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.18,0.365
77
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.078,-0.134,-0.025
78
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.026,-0.057,-0.004
79
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.022,-0.044,0.0
80
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.028,-0.072,0.016
81
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.005,-0.056,0.048
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
82
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.02,0.027
84
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.116,0.011,0.247
85
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.055,0.015,0.089
86
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.075,0.023,0.127
87
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.157,0.091,0.259
88
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.44,0.072,0.758
89
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.131,0.282
90
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.165,0.314
91
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.274,0.192,0.348
92
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.08,-0.131,-0.028
93
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.028,-0.058,0.0
94
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.047,0.002
95
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.03,-0.087,0.028
96
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.063,0.059
97
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.027,0.02
98
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.115,0.028,0.239
100
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.054,0.012,0.097
101
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.073,0.031,0.114
102
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.156,0.091,0.251
103
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.439,0.081,0.757
104
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.211,0.125,0.295
105
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.242,0.155,0.324
106
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.2,0.344
107
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.22,-0.459,-0.071
108
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.161,-0.359,-0.039
109
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.156,-0.354,-0.036
110
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.163,-0.431,-0.001
111
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.137,-0.389,0.03
112
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.131,-0.328,-0.011
113
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.13,-0.314,-0.029
114
+ Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.069,-0.271,0.059
116
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.047,-0.246,0.043
117
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.046,-0.001,0.089
118
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.366,-0.049,0.726
119
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.109,-0.149,0.275
120
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.144,-0.11,0.307
121
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.179,0.074,0.286
122
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.141,-0.183,-0.082
123
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.086,-0.126,-0.062
124
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.081,-0.106,-0.057
125
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.088,-0.149,-0.033
126
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.064,-0.124,-0.009
127
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.058,-0.097,-0.016
128
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.057,-0.108,-0.012
129
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.065,-0.063,0.213
130
+ TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.021,-0.056,0.092
132
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.108,0.017,0.215
133
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.407,0.014,0.752
134
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.059,0.257
135
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.09,0.29
136
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.169,0.289
137
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.165,-0.243,-0.112
138
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.109,-0.187,-0.036
139
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.104,-0.173,-0.04
140
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.111,-0.18,-0.027
141
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.086,-0.175,0.01
142
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.081,-0.146,-0.024
143
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.079,-0.128,-0.032
144
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.045,-0.044,0.197
145
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.021,-0.101,0.053
146
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.089,-0.018,0.224
148
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.395,0.04,0.727
149
+ AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.149,0.059,0.244
150
+ AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.182,0.096,0.277
151
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.115,0.304
152
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.5,-0.138
153
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.374,-0.115
154
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.37,-0.118
155
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.219,-0.445,-0.081
156
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.192,-0.412,-0.048
157
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.186,-0.349,-0.1
158
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.184,-0.335,-0.1
159
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.048,-0.098,0.001
160
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.121,-0.274,-0.017
161
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.097,-0.289,0.018
162
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.336,-0.108,0.712
164
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.066,-0.165,0.208
165
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.102,-0.112,0.239
166
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.139,0.042,0.235
167
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.925,-3.56,-0.159
168
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.832,-3.354,-0.087
169
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.824,-3.308,-0.102
170
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.836,-3.32,-0.065
171
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.794,-3.308,-0.023
172
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.785,-3.132,-0.077
173
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.783,-3.107,-0.088
174
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.578,-2.653,0.047
175
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.687,-3.038,-0.014
176
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.652,-2.668,-0.041
177
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.505,-2.472,0.097
178
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.406,-2.121,0.194
180
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.351,-2.001,0.23
181
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.296,-2.14,0.211
182
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.369,-0.538,-0.219
183
+ Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.442,-0.166
184
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.297,-0.451,-0.151
185
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.306,-0.4,-0.217
186
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.276,-0.381,-0.186
187
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.392,-0.151
188
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.268,-0.419,-0.143
189
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.123,-0.379,0.13
190
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.2,-0.345,-0.063
191
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.175,-0.322,-0.063
192
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.071,-0.263,0.142
193
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.289,-0.24,0.68
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
194
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.026,0.046
196
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.078,-0.115,0.244
197
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.425,-0.61,-0.261
198
+ Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.356,-0.506,-0.211
199
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.519,-0.198
200
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.359,-0.465,-0.26
201
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.328,-0.445,-0.227
202
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.321,-0.458,-0.198
203
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.319,-0.48,-0.183
204
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.168,-0.443,0.099
205
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.408,-0.099
206
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.223,-0.384,-0.106
207
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.114,-0.314,0.101
208
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.26,-0.298,0.667
209
+ Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.048,-0.027
210
+ Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.041,-0.168,0.219
212
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.633,-0.357
213
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.414,-0.572,-0.285
214
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.541,-0.3
215
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.612,-0.244
216
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.384,-0.575,-0.22
217
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.377,-0.534,-0.238
218
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.375,-0.525,-0.251
219
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.218,-0.4,-0.08
220
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.406,-0.203
221
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.437,-0.13
222
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.161,-0.307,-0.044
223
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.229,-0.268,0.682
224
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.085,-0.323,0.104
225
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.043,-0.28,0.144
226
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.02,-0.025,0.063
4
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.047,0.009,0.083
5
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.067,0.026,0.106
6
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.084,0.031,0.128
7
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.092,0.025,0.167
8
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.121,0.041,0.203
9
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.24,0.097,0.36
10
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.112,0.33
11
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.174,0.12,0.228
12
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.656,0.251,0.896
13
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.345,0.186,0.467
14
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.364,0.281,0.428
15
- Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.446,0.286,0.562
16
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.453,0.332,0.546
17
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.021,-0.067,0.025
18
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.027,-0.019,0.062
20
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.048,0.007,0.093
21
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.043,0.094
22
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.073,-0.001,0.174
23
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.103,0.027,0.207
24
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.224,0.102,0.336
25
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.202,0.121,0.296
26
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.157,0.086,0.227
27
- TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.653,0.245,0.896
28
- TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.193,0.443
29
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.351,0.272,0.416
30
- TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.434,0.285,0.54
31
- TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.442,0.335,0.53
32
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.049,-0.091,-0.009
33
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.028,-0.066,0.019
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.022,-0.039,0.075
36
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.039,-0.017,0.092
37
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.048,-0.01,0.127
38
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.078,-0.008,0.171
39
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.202,0.049,0.339
40
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.18,0.065,0.302
41
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.134,0.075,0.186
42
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.644,0.214,0.893
43
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.313,0.142,0.441
44
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.333,0.228,0.415
45
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.418,0.239,0.54
46
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.296,0.525
47
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.072,-0.119,-0.027
48
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.051,-0.103,-0.007
49
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.022,-0.081,0.037
50
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.282,0.857,0.018,-0.043,0.072
52
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.027,-0.043,0.101
53
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.786,0.571,0.929,0.058,0.007,0.126
54
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.185,0.05,0.301
55
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.161,0.064,0.258
56
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.114,0.056,0.174
57
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.638,0.194,0.893
58
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.146,0.416
59
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.24,0.386
60
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.243,0.522
61
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.414,0.291,0.509
62
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.092,-0.147,-0.032
63
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.07,-0.104,-0.045
64
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.041,-0.101,0.016
65
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.718,-0.018,-0.077,0.041
66
- TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,0.009,-0.086,0.126
68
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.041,-0.06,0.162
69
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.17,0.045,0.291
70
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.146,0.066,0.242
71
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.098,0.002,0.189
72
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.633,0.191,0.891
73
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.151,0.403
74
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.306,0.234,0.365
75
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.251,0.51
76
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.296,0.492
77
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.101,-0.201,-0.026
78
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.079,-0.21,0.001
79
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.05,-0.145,0.01
80
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.027,-0.112,0.041
81
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,-0.009,-0.144,0.079
82
- Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.032,-0.024,0.079
84
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.162,-0.048,0.317
85
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.139,-0.035,0.285
86
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.09,0.02,0.161
87
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.626,0.125,0.89
88
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.279,0.065,0.427
89
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.182,0.398
90
- Toto-1.0,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.389,0.191,0.528
91
- Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.249,0.512
92
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.138,-0.255,-0.043
93
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.115,-0.261,-0.028
94
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.085,-0.206,0.008
95
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.214,0.071,0.429,-0.061,-0.144,-0.007
96
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.043,-0.193,0.056
97
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.033,-0.086,0.023
98
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.134,-0.076,0.282
100
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.11,-0.066,0.245
101
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.06,-0.009,0.127
102
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.618,0.116,0.888
103
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.255,0.047,0.399
104
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.161,0.375
105
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.369,0.156,0.507
106
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.217,0.493
107
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.315,-0.563,-0.107
108
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.288,-0.506,-0.114
109
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.254,-0.513,-0.052
110
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.226,-0.432,-0.052
111
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.205,-0.41,-0.048
112
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.194,-0.464,0.046
113
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.155,-0.393,0.071
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
114
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.357,0.071,0.714,-0.028,-0.116,0.039
116
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.086,-0.327,0.118
117
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.589,0.09,0.885
118
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.139,0.093,0.182
119
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.163,0.058,0.26
120
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.166,0.371
121
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.207,0.351
122
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.494,-0.127
123
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.253,-0.42,-0.138
124
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.219,-0.434,-0.07
125
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.193,-0.347,-0.068
126
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.171,-0.319,-0.071
127
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.161,-0.4,0.033
128
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.123,-0.325,0.062
129
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.643,0.286,0.929,0.028,-0.04,0.104
130
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.056,-0.263,0.103
132
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.585,0.08,0.883
133
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.163,0.065,0.254
134
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.187,0.1,0.269
135
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.291,0.164,0.404
136
- AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.199,0.395
137
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.211,-0.295,-0.137
138
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.186,-0.294,-0.094
139
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.154,-0.228,-0.081
140
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.129,-0.21,-0.06
141
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.109,-0.233,-0.002
142
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.099,-0.192,-0.021
143
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.064,-0.146,0.009
144
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.079,-0.134,0.247
145
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.053,-0.115,0.208
146
- Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.597,0.102,0.882
148
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.207,-0.021,0.369
149
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.23,0.092,0.339
150
- Sundial-Base,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.329,0.092,0.484
151
- Sundial-Base,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.338,0.15,0.464
152
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.908,-8.587,-0.336
153
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.882,-8.575,-0.325
154
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.81,-8.326,-0.273
155
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.759,-8.369,-0.241
156
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.723,-8.173,-0.237
157
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-1.673,-8.072,-0.143
158
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.618,-7.942,-0.131
159
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.434,-7.693,-0.099
160
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.409,-7.564,-0.087
161
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.714,-1.481,-7.453,-0.114
162
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,-1.164,-7.054,0.053
164
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.861,-1.001,-6.709,0.153
165
- AutoETS,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.903,-6.375,0.23
166
- AutoETS,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.864,-6.246,0.242
167
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.527,-0.877,-0.228
168
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.496,-0.795,-0.239
169
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.456,-0.79,-0.165
170
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.424,-0.713,-0.172
171
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.399,-0.675,-0.177
172
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.387,-0.746,-0.069
173
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.342,-0.664,-0.05
174
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.161,-0.223,-0.102
175
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.194,-0.341,-0.07
176
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.261,-0.584,0.02
177
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.538,-0.056,0.876
178
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.028,-0.11,0.146
180
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.153,0.039,0.267
181
- AutoTheta,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.165,0.062,0.256
182
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.572,-0.749,-0.391
183
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.54,-0.714,-0.373
184
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.498,-0.709,-0.295
185
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.466,-0.629,-0.316
186
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.44,-0.574,-0.306
187
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-0.66,-0.222
188
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.381,-0.6,-0.193
189
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.195,-0.351,-0.062
190
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.229,-0.369,-0.111
191
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.298,-0.513,-0.101
192
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.139,0.714,0.5,-0.18,0.87
193
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.029,-0.171,0.099
194
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.128,-0.048,0.276
196
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.14,0.006,0.261
197
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.804,-1.284,-0.4
198
- Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.767,-1.175,-0.398
199
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.719,-1.175,-0.314
200
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.682,-1.092,-0.321
201
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.652,-1.041,-0.334
202
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.637,-1.118,-0.236
203
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.585,-1.029,-0.186
204
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.371,-0.591,-0.199
205
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.41,-0.678,-0.195
206
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.49,-0.937,-0.101
207
- Drift,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.474,-0.299,0.864
208
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.181,-0.365,-0.041
209
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.147,-0.382,0.046
210
- Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Drift,Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.014,-0.041,0.071
212
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.828,-1.202,-0.496
213
- Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.791,-1.128,-0.503
214
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.743,-1.103,-0.421
215
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.705,-1.037,-0.411
216
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.675,-0.97,-0.42
217
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.66,-1.05,-0.332
218
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.974,-0.277
219
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.39,-0.54,-0.261
220
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.653,-0.249
221
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.51,-0.867,-0.177
222
- Naive,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.464,-0.32,0.862
223
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.197,-0.345,-0.066
224
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.163,-0.354,-0.006
225
- Naive,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.014,-0.076,0.04
226
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.043,-0.001,0.081
4
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.047,-0.001,0.095
5
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.064,0.011,0.122
6
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.081,0.019,0.139
7
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.021,0.121
8
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.077,0.143
9
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.134,0.097,0.169
10
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.304,0.141,0.433
11
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.161,0.393
12
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.717,0.259,0.947
13
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.418,0.258,0.535
14
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.327,0.459
15
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.431,0.6
16
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.447,0.617
17
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.045,-0.089,0.001
18
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.004,-0.048,0.043
20
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.007,0.049
21
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.04,0.011,0.066
22
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,-0.025,0.069
23
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.078,0.056,0.109
24
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.065,0.123
25
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.273,0.126,0.395
26
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.146,0.351
27
+ TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.709,0.217,0.947
28
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.245,0.505
29
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.288,0.434
30
+ TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.494,0.414,0.575
31
+ TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.429,0.592
32
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.105,0.001
33
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.004,-0.045,0.045
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.051,0.092
36
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.036,-0.024,0.101
37
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.019,0.003,0.034
38
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.074,0.029,0.118
39
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.091,0.045,0.13
40
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.27,0.095,0.415
41
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.111,0.38
42
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.709,0.198,0.947
43
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.389,0.215,0.523
44
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.265,0.447
45
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.396,0.574
46
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.413,0.592
47
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.069,-0.139,-0.011
48
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.052,0.007
49
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.101,0.049
50
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.018,0.0,0.036
52
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.078,0.075
53
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.057,0.016,0.09
54
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.074,0.025,0.114
55
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.129,0.366
56
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.222,0.148,0.314
57
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.705,0.221,0.947
58
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.249,0.485
59
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.291,0.411
60
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.406,0.562
61
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.422,0.579
62
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.088,-0.161,-0.019
63
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.041,-0.07,-0.011
64
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.037,-0.112,0.024
65
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.018,-0.037,0.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
66
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.09,0.05
68
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.04,-0.002,0.081
69
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.057,0.016,0.1
70
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.243,0.114,0.353
71
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.208,0.128,0.307
72
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.703,0.201,0.947
73
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.232,0.47
74
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.271,0.409
75
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.473,0.396,0.548
76
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.412,0.566
77
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.07,-0.138,-0.021
78
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.074,0.024
79
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.019,-0.035,-0.003
80
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.081,0.073
81
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.053,0.083
82
+ Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.057,-0.002,0.106
84
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.015,0.116
85
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.256,0.07,0.405
86
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.221,0.086,0.367
87
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.703,0.17,0.947
88
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.377,0.192,0.514
89
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.241,0.436
90
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.38,0.569
91
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.398,0.588
92
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.134,-0.167,-0.083
93
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.085,-0.123,-0.06
94
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.08,-0.134,-0.03
95
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.061,-0.099,-0.016
96
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.042,-0.088,0.002
97
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.06,-0.118,0.002
98
+ TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.034,0.06
100
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.212,0.042,0.347
101
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.063,0.298
102
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.689,0.159,0.945
103
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.34,0.182,0.468
104
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.321,0.242,0.372
105
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.451,0.357,0.535
106
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.375,0.554
107
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.154,-0.204,-0.107
108
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.104,-0.14,-0.07
109
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.1,-0.149,-0.047
110
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.08,-0.129,-0.025
111
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.061,-0.111,-0.017
112
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.079,-0.131,-0.016
113
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.063,0.033
114
+ Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.197,0.033,0.333
116
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.16,0.055,0.285
117
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.688,0.16,0.945
118
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.165,0.457
119
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.223,0.39
120
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.364,0.517
121
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.461,0.382,0.539
122
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.438,-0.765,-0.164
123
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.376,-0.653,-0.145
124
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.37,-0.71,-0.105
125
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.345,-0.577,-0.148
126
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.321,-0.545,-0.129
127
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.344,-0.681,-0.075
128
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.268,-0.532,-0.044
129
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.246,-0.5,-0.035
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.047,-0.183,0.047
132
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.089,0.941
133
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.163,0.118,0.21
134
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.139,-0.004,0.262
135
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.304,0.201,0.379
136
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.329,0.224,0.406
137
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.374,-0.647,-0.191
138
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.314,-0.54,-0.171
139
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.612,-0.125
140
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.285,-0.459,-0.173
141
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.262,-0.444,-0.147
142
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.284,-0.579,-0.094
143
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.425,-0.067
144
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.19,-0.399,-0.059
145
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.045,-0.049,0.155
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.642,0.062,0.941
148
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.201,0.087,0.317
149
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.178,0.076,0.269
150
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.21,0.441
151
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.238,0.463
152
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.538,-17.795,-0.35
153
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.44,-17.904,-0.278
154
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.436,-17.805,-0.247
155
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.391,-17.776,-0.283
156
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.363,-17.776,-0.252
157
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.366,-17.702,-0.205
158
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.219,-17.076,-0.19
159
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.207,-17.119,-0.19
160
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.814,-15.878,-0.098
161
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.791,-15.965,-0.066
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
162
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.2,1.0,-1.464,-14.889,0.062
164
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,-1.364,-14.138,0.138
165
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-1.141,-13.92,0.256
166
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,-1.083,-13.686,0.286
167
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.718,-1.152,-0.347
168
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.644,-1.02,-0.324
169
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.637,-1.095,-0.274
170
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.608,-0.941,-0.332
171
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.579,-0.887,-0.303
172
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.606,-1.056,-0.237
173
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.516,-0.879,-0.222
174
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.489,-0.842,-0.197
175
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.195,-0.265,-0.134
176
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.251,-0.464,-0.095
177
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.594,-0.066,0.937
178
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.028,-0.202,0.12
180
+ AutoTheta,Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.168,0.021,0.281
181
+ AutoTheta,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.198,0.049,0.314
182
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.671,-0.848,-0.486
183
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.768,-0.404
184
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.592,-0.807,-0.36
185
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.563,-0.699,-0.411
186
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.692,-0.371
187
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.773,-0.317
188
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.474,-0.593,-0.319
189
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.639,-0.286
190
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.162,-0.355,0.004
191
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.216,-0.368,-0.082
192
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.577,-0.16,0.934
193
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.028,-0.137,0.168
194
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.191,0.023,0.331
196
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.22,0.045,0.362
197
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.064,-1.497,-0.756
198
+ Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.975,-1.352,-0.706
199
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.967,-1.345,-0.655
200
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.932,-1.282,-0.683
201
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.897,-1.215,-0.655
202
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.93,-1.321,-0.614
203
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.821,-1.152,-0.556
204
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.788,-1.071,-0.571
205
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.436,-0.61,-0.252
206
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.503,-0.79,-0.267
207
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.533,-0.345,0.933
208
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.201,-0.391,-0.021
209
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.236,-0.496,-0.024
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.036,0.023,0.046
212
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.142,-1.61,-0.808
213
+ Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.049,-1.449,-0.753
214
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.041,-1.451,-0.704
215
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.004,-1.377,-0.729
216
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.968,-1.306,-0.701
217
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.003,-1.426,-0.662
218
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.889,-1.241,-0.6
219
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.856,-1.169,-0.618
220
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.49,-0.685,-0.288
221
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.559,-0.864,-0.312
222
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.52,-0.401,0.932
223
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.247,-0.458,-0.051
224
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.282,-0.567,-0.048
225
+ Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.048,-0.023
226
+ Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
- TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.571,0.143,0.861,-0.009,-0.051,0.03
4
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.008,-0.022,0.032
5
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.035,-0.048,0.13
6
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.043,0.001,0.09
7
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.046,0.019,0.074
8
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.216,0.043,0.416
9
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.097,0.017,0.207
10
- TiRex,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.117,0.045,0.188
11
- TiRex,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.392,0.087,0.672
12
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.349,0.103,0.553
13
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.202,0.1,0.305
14
- TiRex,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.292,0.171,0.381
15
- TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.206,0.317
16
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.228,0.55
17
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.429,0.139,0.857,0.009,-0.031,0.049
18
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.016,-0.03,0.065
20
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.043,-0.043,0.133
21
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.052,0.015,0.084
22
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.054,-0.002,0.104
23
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.223,0.053,0.418
24
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.105,0.028,0.193
25
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.125,0.055,0.185
26
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.397,0.081,0.688
27
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.354,0.111,0.553
28
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.209,0.124,0.298
29
- Chronos-2,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.298,0.156,0.402
30
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.202,0.329
31
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.407,0.237,0.545
32
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.008,-0.033,0.022
33
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.017,-0.069,0.029
34
- TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.027,-0.036,0.112
36
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.036,-0.019,0.09
37
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.038,-0.001,0.083
38
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.21,0.021,0.429
39
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.09,-0.004,0.19
40
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.11,0.031,0.181
41
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.387,0.063,0.672
42
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.344,0.082,0.547
43
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.195,0.083,0.298
44
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.287,0.153,0.393
45
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.204,0.301
46
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.211,0.545
47
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.036,-0.15,0.046
48
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.045,-0.154,0.042
49
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.028,-0.126,0.034
50
  Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.009,-0.071,0.085
52
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.011,-0.12,0.102
53
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.187,-0.041,0.432
54
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,-0.008,0.123
55
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.085,-0.014,0.171
56
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.369,-0.015,0.67
57
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.325,0.019,0.551
58
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.173,0.024,0.299
59
- Toto-1.0,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.266,0.128,0.388
60
- Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.187,0.276
61
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.169,0.548
62
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.045,-0.099,-0.001
63
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.054,-0.092,-0.016
64
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.037,-0.098,0.019
65
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.009,-0.093,0.066
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
66
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.282,0.857,0.003,-0.065,0.062
68
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.18,0.002,0.384
69
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.786,0.571,0.929,0.056,0.005,0.13
70
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.077,0.007,0.147
71
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.364,0.035,0.664
72
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.319,0.058,0.542
73
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.166,0.075,0.273
74
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.26,0.127,0.359
75
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.168,0.288
76
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.375,0.197,0.528
77
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.048,-0.08,-0.019
78
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.057,-0.116,0.002
79
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.04,-0.091,0.001
80
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.011,-0.114,0.107
81
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.718,-0.003,-0.066,0.061
82
- TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.178,0.01,0.379
84
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.054,-0.05,0.18
85
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.075,0.002,0.149
86
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.362,0.048,0.659
87
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.317,0.08,0.519
88
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.163,0.057,0.255
89
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.258,0.151,0.346
90
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.227,0.166,0.294
91
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.205,0.517
92
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.275,-0.713,-0.045
93
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.286,-0.717,-0.056
94
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.265,-0.751,-0.021
95
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.23,-0.76,0.039
96
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.22,-0.624,-0.002
97
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.217,-0.611,-0.01
98
- Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.151,-0.606,0.1
100
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.125,-0.499,0.051
101
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.224,-0.318,0.631
102
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.17,0.016,0.382
103
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.018,-0.315,0.165
104
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.097,-0.096,0.244
105
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.06,-0.311,0.244
106
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.237,0.112,0.389
107
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.107,-0.261,-0.017
108
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.117,-0.239,-0.029
109
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.099,-0.235,0.004
110
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.069,-0.14,0.007
111
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.214,0.071,0.429,-0.059,-0.149,-0.005
112
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.057,-0.22,0.048
113
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.132,-0.111,0.378
114
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.023,-0.097,0.13
116
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.326,-0.08,0.648
117
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.279,-0.04,0.528
118
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.116,-0.021,0.248
119
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.216,0.042,0.351
120
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.184,0.095,0.265
121
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.338,0.123,0.517
122
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.133,-0.231,-0.047
123
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.143,-0.226,-0.058
124
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.124,-0.221,-0.032
125
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.093,-0.207,0.014
126
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.084,-0.173,-0.007
127
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.081,-0.175,-0.002
128
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.111,-0.053,0.333
129
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.023,-0.15,0.088
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
130
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.311,-0.014,0.632
132
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.262,-0.013,0.483
133
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.096,-0.035,0.212
134
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.198,0.087,0.312
135
- AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.165,0.103,0.227
136
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.322,0.145,0.469
137
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.643,-2.052,-0.095
138
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.658,-2.204,-0.088
139
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.631,-2.048,-0.067
140
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.586,-2.027,0.015
141
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.572,-1.98,-0.036
142
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.568,-1.934,-0.051
143
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.289,-1.708,0.241
144
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.484,-1.839,0.074
145
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.45,-1.715,0.013
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
146
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.07,-1.236,0.419
148
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.312,-1.61,0.14
149
- AutoETS,Drift,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.163,-1.191,0.239
150
- AutoETS,Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.211,-1.231,0.21
151
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.017,-1.093,0.418
152
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.535,-1.237,-0.115
153
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.549,-1.239,-0.125
154
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.523,-1.209,-0.09
155
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.482,-1.229,-0.019
156
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.469,-1.184,-0.062
157
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.465,-1.078,-0.087
158
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.204,-0.619,-0.016
159
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.387,-1.118,0.038
160
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.355,-0.933,0.013
161
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.066,-0.722,0.553
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
162
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.226,-0.6,0.049
164
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.087,-0.561,0.178
165
- AutoARIMA,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.132,-0.67,0.197
166
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.082,-0.025,0.173
167
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.253,-0.44,-0.111
168
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.264,-0.424,-0.142
169
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.243,-0.425,-0.091
170
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.209,-0.427,-0.024
171
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.198,-0.376,-0.081
172
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.195,-0.342,-0.06
173
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.018,-0.198,0.239
174
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.131,-0.33,0.021
175
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.106,-0.269,0.034
176
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.238,-0.162,0.617
177
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.184,-0.052,0.375
178
- Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- Sundial-Base,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.113,-0.079,0.27
180
- Sundial-Base,Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.077,-0.095,0.217
181
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.251,0.105,0.384
182
- Drift,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.413,-0.615,-0.206
183
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.425,-0.673,-0.185
184
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.402,-0.647,-0.181
185
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.363,-0.635,-0.146
186
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.351,-0.559,-0.146
187
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.348,-0.528,-0.178
188
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.108,-0.324,0.088
189
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.276,-0.541,-0.044
190
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.247,-0.453,-0.096
191
- Drift,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.14,-0.314,0.544
192
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.08,-0.217,0.359
193
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.128,-0.37,0.073
194
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- Drift,Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.041,-0.231,0.077
196
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.155,-0.058,0.354
197
- Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.357,-0.464,-0.26
198
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.368,-0.491,-0.254
199
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.346,-0.43,-0.257
200
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.381,-0.231
201
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.404,-0.202
202
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.294,-0.416,-0.199
203
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.064,-0.323,0.237
204
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.225,-0.361,-0.105
205
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.197,-0.293,-0.114
206
- Naive,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.175,-0.266,0.552
207
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.117,-0.246,0.401
208
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.083,-0.277,0.087
209
- Naive,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.04,-0.083,0.188
210
- Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.189,-0.062,0.396
212
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.672,-1.224,-0.296
213
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.686,-1.197,-0.311
214
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.659,-1.2,-0.267
215
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.613,-1.211,-0.204
216
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.599,-1.121,-0.246
217
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.595,-1.069,-0.258
218
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.311,-0.637,-0.127
219
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.51,-1.071,-0.14
220
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.476,-0.884,-0.169
221
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.017,-0.718,0.522
222
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.089,-0.21,0.024
223
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.335,-0.624,-0.117
224
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.183,-0.548,0.055
225
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.232,-0.655,0.058
226
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.032,-0.008,0.069
4
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.026,-0.059,0.112
5
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.03,0.091
6
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.05,0.01,0.084
7
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.062,0.015,0.106
8
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.059,0.123
9
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.156,0.106,0.207
10
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.219,0.105,0.34
11
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.119,0.515
12
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.142,0.803
13
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.225,0.347
14
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.196,0.651
15
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.301,0.439
16
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.277,0.613
17
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.033,-0.074,0.008
18
+ TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.07,0.05
20
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.044,0.032
21
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.014,0.055
22
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.03,0.002,0.06
23
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.064,0.043,0.09
24
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.128,0.062,0.196
25
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.193,0.054,0.34
26
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.276,0.057,0.511
27
+ TiRex,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.489,0.099,0.792
28
+ TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.219,0.303
29
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.152,0.648
30
+ TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.287,0.421
31
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.453,0.224,0.614
32
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.027,-0.126,0.056
33
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.053,0.066
34
  Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.025,0.038
36
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.024,-0.07,0.117
37
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.036,-0.046,0.124
38
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.07,0.009,0.134
39
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.133,0.026,0.21
40
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.198,0.016,0.364
41
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.28,0.021,0.54
42
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.492,0.069,0.794
43
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.254,0.288
44
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.441,0.118,0.658
45
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.354,0.285,0.456
46
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.212,0.632
47
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.1,0.029
48
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.034,0.042
49
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.04,0.025
50
+ TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.042,0.095
52
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.03,-0.029,0.101
53
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.063,0.029,0.107
54
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.127,0.039,0.206
55
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.193,0.04,0.341
56
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.275,0.033,0.533
57
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.489,0.089,0.791
58
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.266,0.233,0.292
59
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.139,0.646
60
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.266,0.446
61
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.216,0.62
62
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.092,-0.01
63
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.059,0.013
64
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.133,0.065
65
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.105,0.041
66
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.013,0.0,0.025
68
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.047,0.009,0.086
69
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.112,0.045,0.179
70
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.179,0.057,0.325
71
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.072,0.481
72
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.48,0.113,0.787
73
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.175,0.308
74
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.154,0.639
75
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.338,0.286,0.398
76
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.443,0.234,0.607
77
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.066,-0.119,-0.015
78
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.031,-0.064,-0.002
79
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.038,-0.141,0.044
80
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.031,-0.112,0.028
81
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.013,-0.026,0.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
82
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.035,0.001,0.076
84
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.101,0.027,0.179
85
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.168,0.033,0.319
86
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.253,0.051,0.481
87
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.473,0.1,0.782
88
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.173,0.294
89
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.137,0.639
90
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.276,0.39
91
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.436,0.216,0.604
92
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.104,-0.141,-0.063
93
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.068,-0.099,-0.045
94
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.075,-0.155,-0.009
95
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.068,-0.12,-0.03
96
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.094,-0.009
97
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.036,-0.082,-0.001
98
+ TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.068,-0.003,0.154
100
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.138,0.01,0.274
101
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.226,0.006,0.473
102
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.454,0.046,0.781
103
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.157,0.269
104
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.111,0.613
105
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.306,0.22,0.385
106
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.189,0.58
107
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.185,-0.261,-0.118
108
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.146,-0.244,-0.066
109
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.154,-0.266,-0.027
110
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.146,-0.259,-0.041
111
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.126,-0.219,-0.047
112
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.112,-0.218,-0.028
113
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.073,-0.182,0.003
114
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.075,-0.094,0.236
116
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.17,-0.04,0.439
117
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.414,0.031,0.756
118
+ AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.159,0.08,0.246
119
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.355,0.02,0.592
120
+ AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.138,0.359
121
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.124,0.551
122
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.281,-0.514,-0.118
123
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.239,-0.515,-0.058
124
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.248,-0.572,-0.016
125
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.239,-0.516,-0.041
126
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.481,-0.06
127
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.202,-0.469,-0.034
128
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.16,-0.378,-0.01
129
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.081,-0.309,0.086
130
+ Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.102,-0.154,0.356
132
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.367,-0.107,0.752
133
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.091,-0.163,0.262
134
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.302,0.104,0.465
135
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.195,-0.036,0.319
136
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.322,0.196,0.44
137
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-1.06,-0.136
138
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.38,-1.043,-0.06
139
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.389,-1.175,-0.022
140
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.38,-1.143,-0.034
141
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.356,-0.928,-0.077
142
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.339,-0.928,-0.053
143
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.292,-0.899,-0.006
144
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.204,-0.783,0.038
145
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.114,-0.552,0.134
146
+ Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.294,-0.491,0.752
148
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.012,-0.576,0.256
149
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.223,0.017,0.48
150
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.103,-0.193,0.288
151
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.244,0.079,0.437
152
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.022,-4.086,-0.165
153
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.957,-3.819,-0.11
154
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.969,-3.864,-0.074
155
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.955,-3.785,-0.098
156
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.922,-3.687,-0.128
157
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.897,-3.581,-0.111
158
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.832,-3.56,-0.049
159
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.707,-3.104,-0.032
160
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.579,-3.026,0.096
161
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.417,-3.027,0.329
162
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.435,-2.462,0.2
164
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.101,-2.153,0.506
165
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.272,-2.166,0.294
166
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.071,-2.122,0.478
167
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.409,-0.532,-0.291
168
+ Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.364,-0.434,-0.28
169
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.405,-0.341
170
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.363,-0.413,-0.304
171
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.445,-0.212
172
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.322,-0.416,-0.209
173
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.277,-0.369,-0.186
174
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.189,-0.326,-0.087
175
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.1,-0.355,0.14
176
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.012,-0.344,0.365
177
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.303,-0.249,0.711
178
+ Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.232,-0.216,0.538
180
+ Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.114,0.031,0.248
181
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.254,-0.107,0.5
182
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.836,-1.868,-0.243
183
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.776,-1.839,-0.179
184
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.788,-1.924,-0.133
185
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.775,-1.821,-0.161
186
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.773,-0.182
187
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-1.773,-0.159
188
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.663,-1.583,-0.125
189
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.549,-1.452,-0.021
190
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.433,-0.868,-0.116
191
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.287,-0.923,-0.017
192
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.092,-1.026,0.683
193
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.303,-1.164,0.178
194
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.154,-0.935,0.218
196
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.028,-0.096,0.124
197
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.781,-0.431
198
+ Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.539,-0.727,-0.403
199
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.549,-0.839,-0.398
200
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.538,-0.806,-0.362
201
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.511,-0.662,-0.4
202
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.492,-0.64,-0.381
203
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.441,-0.627,-0.282
204
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.342,-0.56,-0.16
205
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.241,-0.467,0.035
206
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.115,-0.405,0.162
207
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.214,-0.417,0.684
208
+ Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.33,-0.032
209
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.134,-0.278,0.483
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
210
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.158,-0.156,0.42
212
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.888,-1.587,-0.384
213
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.827,-1.591,-0.288
214
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.839,-1.721,-0.27
215
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.826,-1.634,-0.276
216
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.794,-1.545,-0.305
217
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.772,-1.526,-0.276
218
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.71,-1.38,-0.233
219
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-1.226,-0.141
220
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.474,-0.786,-0.244
221
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.323,-0.777,-0.086
222
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.066,-0.917,0.68
223
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.34,-1.001,0.097
224
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.029,-0.142,0.088
225
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.187,-0.724,0.135
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
226
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
- TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.571,0.143,0.861,-0.01,-0.054,0.033
4
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.002,-0.087,0.051
5
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.033,-0.048,0.127
6
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.042,-0.004,0.091
7
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.032,0.002,0.056
8
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.093,0.011,0.201
9
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.478,0.153,0.697
10
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.445,0.145,0.674
11
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.25,0.151,0.364
12
- TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.756,0.304,0.917
13
- TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.599,0.243,0.81
14
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.558,0.316,0.731
15
- TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.682,0.421,0.841
16
- TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.683,0.446,0.836
17
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.429,0.139,0.857,0.01,-0.034,0.051
18
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.008,-0.065,0.065
20
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.043,-0.037,0.124
21
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.052,0.015,0.086
22
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.042,0.001,0.084
23
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.102,0.031,0.189
24
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.483,0.157,0.709
25
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.451,0.156,0.683
26
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.258,0.185,0.349
27
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.755,0.295,0.916
28
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.603,0.244,0.813
29
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.563,0.317,0.733
30
- Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.685,0.42,0.843
31
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.686,0.451,0.839
32
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.002,-0.053,0.08
33
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.008,-0.069,0.061
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.035,-0.029,0.096
36
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.045,-0.018,0.104
37
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.034,-0.014,0.091
38
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.095,0.006,0.182
39
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.479,0.12,0.721
40
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.446,0.112,0.701
41
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.145,0.363
42
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.756,0.281,0.922
43
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.599,0.211,0.824
44
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.286,0.75
45
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.683,0.397,0.851
46
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.684,0.424,0.848
47
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.034,-0.145,0.045
48
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.045,-0.141,0.036
49
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.037,-0.106,0.028
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
50
  Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.01,-0.066,0.069
52
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,-0.001,-0.101,0.071
53
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.062,-0.004,0.114
54
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.46,0.074,0.711
55
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.426,0.064,0.688
56
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.224,0.095,0.351
57
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.747,0.24,0.916
58
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.585,0.176,0.815
59
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.543,0.245,0.739
60
- Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.671,0.364,0.848
61
- Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.672,0.396,0.844
62
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.044,-0.1,0.004
63
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.055,-0.094,-0.016
64
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.047,-0.116,0.018
65
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.01,-0.074,0.062
66
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.011,-0.06,0.031
68
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.786,0.571,0.929,0.052,0.006,0.123
69
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.455,0.117,0.693
70
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.42,0.103,0.667
71
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.139,0.317
72
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.746,0.275,0.914
73
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.581,0.207,0.803
74
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.274,0.721
75
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.668,0.388,0.835
76
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.669,0.41,0.832
77
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.033,-0.059,-0.002
78
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.044,-0.092,-0.001
79
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.035,-0.1,0.014
80
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,0.001,-0.076,0.092
81
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.011,-0.032,0.057
82
- TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.063,-0.017,0.173
84
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.461,0.119,0.695
85
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.427,0.115,0.673
86
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.225,0.123,0.329
87
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.75,0.272,0.916
88
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.585,0.215,0.807
89
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.544,0.29,0.723
90
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.672,0.406,0.836
91
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.673,0.426,0.832
92
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.102,-0.252,-0.011
93
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.113,-0.233,-0.032
94
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.105,-0.223,-0.006
95
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.066,-0.129,0.004
96
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.214,0.071,0.429,-0.055,-0.141,-0.006
97
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.067,-0.209,0.017
98
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.424,0.037,0.688
100
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.388,0.016,0.66
101
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.173,0.054,0.294
102
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.733,0.181,0.911
103
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.558,0.137,0.797
104
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.513,0.217,0.719
105
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.65,0.323,0.833
106
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.651,0.359,0.831
107
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.915,-2.3,-0.18
108
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.934,-2.44,-0.186
109
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.919,-2.585,-0.137
110
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.851,-2.459,-0.079
111
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.834,-2.257,-0.132
112
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.854,-2.28,-0.135
113
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.737,-2.205,-0.039
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
114
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.143,0.857,-0.063,-0.172,0.032
116
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.436,-1.441,0.061
117
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.571,0.093,0.875
118
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.231,0.104,0.367
119
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.155,0.051,0.254
120
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.391,0.243,0.512
121
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.393,0.28,0.491
122
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.802,-2.065,-0.17
123
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.82,-2.155,-0.185
124
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.806,-2.345,-0.126
125
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.742,-2.208,-0.068
126
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.725,-1.999,-0.115
127
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.744,-2.057,-0.13
128
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.635,-1.942,-0.016
129
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.143,0.857,0.059,-0.033,0.147
130
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.351,-1.288,0.062
132
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.578,0.086,0.877
133
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.277,0.101,0.416
134
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.204,0.116,0.303
135
- AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.269,0.538
136
- AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.429,0.313,0.519
137
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.334,-0.572,-0.178
138
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.347,-0.537,-0.228
139
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.569,-0.169
140
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.289,-0.542,-0.106
141
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.277,-0.464,-0.162
142
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.291,-0.49,-0.141
143
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.21,-0.415,-0.058
144
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.304,-0.064,0.59
145
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.26,-0.066,0.563
146
- Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.681,0.079,0.898
148
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.465,0.049,0.74
149
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.411,0.133,0.629
150
- Sundial-Base,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.576,0.257,0.781
151
- Sundial-Base,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.578,0.29,0.774
152
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.092,-11.018,-0.437
153
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.078,-10.921,-0.418
154
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-3.104,-11.774,-0.391
155
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-2.951,-10.911,-0.316
156
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-2.943,-10.653,-0.38
157
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.995,-10.863,-0.374
158
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-2.744,-10.286,-0.22
159
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.329,-7.014,-0.103
160
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.714,-1.372,-7.152,-0.094
161
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-2.137,-8.832,-0.086
162
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.854,-6.04,0.103
164
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.932,-5.893,0.162
165
- AutoETS,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.524,-5.012,0.36
166
- AutoETS,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.509,-4.989,0.352
167
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.491,-4.261,-0.321
168
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.516,-4.346,-0.323
169
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.496,-4.691,-0.268
170
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.408,-4.392,-0.214
171
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.385,-4.079,-0.26
172
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.411,-4.181,-0.274
173
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.26,-3.938,-0.159
174
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.301,-0.58,-0.116
175
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.382,-0.714,-0.113
176
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.868,-2.852,-0.051
177
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.46,-0.114,0.858
178
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.1,-0.419,0.137
180
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.208,0.058,0.36
181
- AutoTheta,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.211,0.087,0.342
182
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.265,-2.715,-0.461
183
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.288,-2.746,-0.464
184
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.27,-2.993,-0.4
185
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.19,-2.836,-0.324
186
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.169,-2.583,-0.377
187
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.192,-2.604,-0.408
188
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.055,-2.553,-0.277
189
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.183,-0.34,-0.054
190
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.257,-0.435,-0.131
191
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.698,-1.692,-0.153
192
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.482,-0.194,0.855
193
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.091,-0.159,0.295
194
- Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.28,0.079,0.433
196
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.857,0.714,1.0,0.282,0.128,0.41
197
- Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.146,-5.283,-0.727
198
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.178,-5.372,-0.725
199
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-2.152,-5.704,-0.659
200
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.041,-5.587,-0.572
201
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.012,-5.07,-0.634
202
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.045,-5.099,-0.682
203
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.854,-5.005,-0.476
204
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.643,-1.048,-0.321
205
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.746,-1.166,-0.367
206
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.359,-3.572,-0.346
207
- Drift,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.344,-0.562,0.834
208
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.263,-0.564,-0.062
209
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.389,-0.765,-0.086
210
- Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Drift,Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.003,-0.044,0.058
212
- Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.156,-5.1,-0.806
213
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.189,-5.229,-0.82
214
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.163,-5.559,-0.735
215
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.052,-5.393,-0.654
216
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.022,-4.966,-0.695
217
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.056,-4.965,-0.741
218
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.864,-4.914,-0.56
219
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.648,-0.965,-0.389
220
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.752,-1.077,-0.456
221
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.367,-3.427,-0.408
222
- Naive,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.337,-0.544,0.833
223
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.267,-0.519,-0.095
224
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.143,0.0,0.286,-0.394,-0.694,-0.147
225
- Naive,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.003,-0.061,0.042
226
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.002,-0.112,0.084
4
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.011,0.074
5
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.02,-0.065,0.099
6
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.049,0.015,0.087
7
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.058,0.021,0.1
8
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.066,0.021,0.108
9
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.261,0.165,0.385
10
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.596,0.289,0.786
11
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.248,0.769
12
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.651,0.412,0.8
13
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.851,0.447,0.96
14
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.713,0.389,0.882
15
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.781,0.608,0.893
16
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.789,0.626,0.897
17
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.002,-0.091,0.101
18
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.031,-0.031,0.124
20
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.031,0.066
21
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,-0.034,0.132
22
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.056,-0.012,0.133
23
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.064,0.016,0.123
24
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.26,0.114,0.407
25
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.595,0.249,0.809
26
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.186,0.792
27
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.65,0.373,0.816
28
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.854,0.428,0.963
29
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.712,0.366,0.888
30
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.78,0.575,0.902
31
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.789,0.594,0.906
32
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.08,0.011
33
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.032,-0.142,0.03
34
+ TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.014,-0.083,0.045
36
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.018,0.051
37
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,-0.005,0.056
38
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.034,-0.006,0.062
39
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.12,0.391
40
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.582,0.262,0.777
41
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.541,0.197,0.764
42
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.379,0.8
43
+ TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.849,0.438,0.96
44
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.703,0.375,0.877
45
+ TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.773,0.582,0.889
46
+ TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.782,0.601,0.893
47
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.02,-0.11,0.061
48
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.071,0.03
49
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.013,-0.047,0.077
50
  Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.03,-0.058,0.099
52
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.039,-0.038,0.101
53
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,-0.008,0.093
54
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.246,0.087,0.423
55
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.588,0.233,0.794
56
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.548,0.166,0.782
57
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.644,0.359,0.812
58
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.851,0.418,0.962
59
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.707,0.353,0.887
60
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.776,0.566,0.898
61
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.585,0.902
62
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.096,-0.015
63
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.05,-0.152,0.033
64
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.017,-0.054,0.018
65
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.031,-0.109,0.055
66
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.009,0.0,0.021
68
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.011,0.046
69
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.223,0.116,0.358
70
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.575,0.258,0.778
71
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.197,0.76
72
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.633,0.366,0.794
73
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.848,0.434,0.96
74
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.698,0.368,0.878
75
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.769,0.58,0.887
76
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.599,0.891
77
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.062,-0.111,-0.021
78
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.059,-0.154,0.012
79
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.027,-0.059,0.005
80
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.041,-0.113,0.037
81
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.009,-0.022,0.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
82
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.009,-0.011,0.031
84
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.216,0.102,0.357
85
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.571,0.245,0.776
86
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.185,0.759
87
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.629,0.357,0.794
88
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.847,0.427,0.96
89
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.695,0.362,0.878
90
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.767,0.572,0.887
91
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.776,0.591,0.891
92
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.071,-0.121,-0.022
93
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.069,-0.14,-0.016
94
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.036,-0.067,0.006
95
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.05,-0.102,0.008
96
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.048,0.011
97
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.009,-0.032,0.011
98
+ TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.209,0.084,0.36
100
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.567,0.227,0.78
101
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.525,0.161,0.763
102
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.626,0.346,0.795
103
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.845,0.411,0.959
104
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.692,0.345,0.878
105
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.765,0.562,0.889
106
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.582,0.893
107
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.354,-0.627,-0.197
108
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.351,-0.685,-0.128
109
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.642,-0.136
110
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.327,-0.734,-0.095
111
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.287,-0.558,-0.132
112
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.554,-0.113
113
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.264,-0.562,-0.092
114
+ Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.453,0.145,0.692
116
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.087,0.676
117
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.527,0.284,0.714
118
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.808,0.284,0.953
119
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.611,0.269,0.825
120
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.703,0.519,0.848
121
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.714,0.541,0.854
122
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.476,-3.677,-0.406
123
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.471,-4.234,-0.332
124
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.394,-3.477,-0.355
125
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.427,-3.85,-0.304
126
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.354,-3.502,-0.348
127
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.333,-3.474,-0.324
128
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.312,-3.54,-0.294
129
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.829,-2.252,-0.17
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.098,-0.253,0.033
132
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.136,-0.006,0.263
133
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.679,0.122,0.942
134
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.141,0.431
135
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.381,0.525
136
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.478,0.402,0.547
137
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.255,-3.321,-0.329
138
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.25,-3.81,-0.229
139
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.18,-3.234,-0.246
140
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.21,-3.591,-0.199
141
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.143,-3.167,-0.246
142
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.124,-3.155,-0.227
143
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.105,-3.225,-0.192
144
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.666,-2.082,-0.095
145
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.089,-0.034,0.202
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.213,0.085,0.322
148
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.69,0.14,0.945
149
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.163,0.498
150
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.439,0.55
151
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.524,0.461,0.571
152
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.865,-3.998,-0.7
153
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.859,-4.429,-0.596
154
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.77,-3.99,-0.611
155
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.808,-4.323,-0.561
156
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.723,-3.847,-0.577
157
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.699,-3.847,-0.554
158
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.675,-3.872,-0.53
159
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.116,-2.499,-0.396
160
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.157,-0.357,0.006
161
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.27,-0.475,-0.093
162
+ Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.619,-0.191,0.934
164
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.176,-0.119,0.407
165
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.263,0.474
166
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.285,0.498
167
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.72,-23.987,-0.809
168
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-5.843,-25.798,-0.747
169
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.624,-24.278,-0.78
170
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-5.702,-25.133,-0.719
171
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.569,-23.796,-0.768
172
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.529,-23.796,-0.746
173
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.472,-23.681,-0.697
174
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-4.218,-20.183,-0.396
175
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.12,-16.234,-0.139
176
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.23,-17.179,-0.162
177
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,-1.625,-14.209,0.161
178
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,-1.332,-14.278,0.126
180
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.858,-12.363,0.398
181
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.804,-12.205,0.425
182
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.479,-7.506,-0.637
183
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.472,-7.959,-0.578
184
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.364,-7.162,-0.601
185
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.41,-7.837,-0.546
186
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.307,-7.179,-0.581
187
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.277,-7.179,-0.567
188
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.248,-7.22,-0.527
189
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.57,-4.717,-0.367
190
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.758,-0.164
191
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.543,-0.992,-0.195
192
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.214,-0.687,0.106
193
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.571,-0.144,0.935
194
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ AutoTheta,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.237,0.048,0.39
196
+ AutoTheta,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.266,0.077,0.417
197
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.56,-8.328,-1.553
198
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.55,-9.211,-1.351
199
+ Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.409,-7.988,-1.391
200
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.469,-8.786,-1.303
201
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.334,-7.847,-1.379
202
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.295,-7.822,-1.337
203
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.257,-7.97,-1.283
204
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.368,-5.581,-1.081
205
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.841,-1.107,-0.615
206
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.022,-1.221,-0.784
207
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.592,-0.903,-0.356
208
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.462,-0.661,0.925
209
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.311,-0.64,-0.051
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.038,0.023,0.048
212
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.74,-8.702,-1.674
213
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.731,-9.61,-1.462
214
+ Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.584,-8.339,-1.504
215
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.647,-9.168,-1.412
216
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.506,-8.192,-1.492
217
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.466,-8.166,-1.447
218
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.426,-8.32,-1.391
219
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.502,-5.838,-1.177
220
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.914,-1.209,-0.671
221
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.102,-1.33,-0.857
222
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.655,-0.991,-0.399
223
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.446,-0.738,0.924
224
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.363,-0.714,-0.083
225
+ Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.023
226
+ Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Chronos-2,92.06349206349208,37.031984410801556,0.0,1.0048769279378604,0.0,0.0
3
- TimesFM-2.5,79.56349206349206,31.756842876803205,0.0,0.634193638575108,0.1111111111111111,0.0
4
- TiRex,77.9761904761905,30.959901636708754,0.0,0.12270568949778277,0.0,0.0
5
- Toto-1.0,69.64285714285711,29.797350941959134,0.0,20.37693309206464,0.05555555555555555,0.0
6
- Moirai-2.0,61.80555555555555,27.986857930755637,0.0,0.23139575766001647,0.1388888888888889,0.0
7
- Chronos-Bolt,60.61507936507935,27.25662897823846,0.0,0.12904372020784313,0.0,0.0
8
- TabPFN-TS,54.86111111111111,27.785725472538402,0.0,74.43424249856537,0.0,5.555555555555555
9
- Sundial-Base,53.17460317460318,25.706657478917826,0.0,7.843398798997882,0.0,0.0
10
- Stat. Ensemble,46.230158730158735,13.650725907512317,0.0,70.18682178316327,0.0,8.333333333333332
11
- AutoTheta,36.30952380952381,11.931051692995487,0.0,2.783008451220238,0.0,0.0
12
- AutoARIMA,33.53174603174603,12.77263280798463,0.0,13.86779602162245,0.0,5.555555555555555
13
- AutoETS,31.8452380952381,9.802249190218026,0.0,1.6747289355714285,0.0,2.7777777777777777
14
- Naive,22.916666666666664,-2.2214112262656016,0.0,0.3094170634187266,0.0,0.0
15
- Seasonal Naive,18.154761904761905,0.0,0.0,0.3065547085,0.0,0.0
16
- Drift,11.30952380952381,-7.154463652128329,0.0,0.3101577249,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Chronos-2,93.92857142857142,31.501656677015877,0.0,0.3572266334258295,0.0,0.0
3
+ TimesFM-2.5,78.57142857142857,23.432210853887824,0.0,0.19641556213711014,0.2,0.0
4
+ TiRex,77.14285714285715,22.162040254473435,0.0,0.07370943284719464,0.0,0.0
5
+ Moirai-2.0,60.535714285714285,19.71091545425906,0.0,0.21348722605763143,0.25,0.0
6
+ Chronos-Bolt,59.464285714285715,19.675877583589962,0.0,0.04549884800513035,0.0,0.0
7
+ Stat. Ensemble,56.07142857142857,13.027815355863082,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,5.0
8
+ TabPFN-TS,53.75,21.87830321957843,0.0,25.2531360586838,0.0,10.0
9
+ Toto-1.0,52.142857142857146,16.413339138501282,0.0,5.986121467058823,0.1,0.0
10
+ Sundial-Base,46.07142857142858,16.038005246480637,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0
11
+ AutoTheta,40.71428571428572,10.280766781650541,0.0,0.7288304926503824,0.0,0.0
12
+ AutoETS,38.21428571428571,9.26831193284996,0.0,0.8958939228431373,0.0,0.0
13
+ AutoARIMA,33.92857142857142,10.226042531476098,0.0,3.96671253120826,0.0,0.0
14
+ Naive,23.750000000000004,-6.914332478799268,0.0,0.05127838559511824,0.0,0.0
15
+ Seasonal Naive,22.857142857142858,0.0,0.0,0.04917723782336198,0.0,0.0
16
+ Drift,12.85714285714286,-11.344894423586283,0.0,0.04833643247478821,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Chronos-2,93.65079365079364,55.24682827655452,0.0,1.0048769279378604,0.0,0.0
3
- TiRex,84.32539682539681,51.00585678432055,0.0,0.12270568949778277,0.0,0.0
4
- TimesFM-2.5,82.93650793650794,51.08225428496542,0.0,0.634193638575108,0.1111111111111111,0.0
5
- Toto-1.0,74.0079365079365,49.61649635854898,0.0,20.37693309206464,0.05555555555555555,0.0
6
- Moirai-2.0,65.77380952380952,48.097908032351434,0.0,0.23139575766001647,0.1388888888888889,0.0
7
- Chronos-Bolt,65.57539682539681,47.296169590199945,0.0,0.12904372020784313,0.0,0.0
8
- TabPFN-TS,57.63888888888891,45.19532334571175,0.0,74.43424249856537,0.0,5.555555555555555
9
- Sundial-Base,47.023809523809526,43.45016102867775,0.0,7.843398798997882,0.0,0.0
10
- Stat. Ensemble,43.25396825396825,24.891865755341,0.0,70.18682178316327,0.0,8.333333333333332
11
- AutoARIMA,40.87301587301587,31.114106259154717,0.0,13.86779602162245,0.0,5.555555555555555
12
- AutoETS,31.051587301587297,-32.36813529355611,0.0,1.6747289355714285,0.0,2.7777777777777777
13
- AutoTheta,30.555555555555554,18.482830077885538,0.0,2.783008451220238,0.0,0.0
14
- Seasonal Naive,18.353174603174605,0.0,0.0,0.3065547085,0.0,0.0
15
- Naive,12.20238095238095,-41.01504225828758,0.0,0.3094170634187266,0.0,0.0
16
- Drift,2.777777777777778,-46.081590937812635,0.0,0.3101577249,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Chronos-2,95.35714285714285,43.96240642608832,0.0,0.3572266334258295,0.0,0.0
3
+ TiRex,86.07142857142858,36.823555756781786,0.0,0.07370943284719464,0.0,0.0
4
+ TimesFM-2.5,83.21428571428572,37.10811211763772,0.0,0.19641556213711014,0.2,0.0
5
+ Chronos-Bolt,69.46428571428571,34.10760588639609,0.0,0.04549884800513035,0.0,0.0
6
+ Moirai-2.0,64.46428571428572,33.491148656047734,0.0,0.21348722605763143,0.25,0.0
7
+ Toto-1.0,59.64285714285714,30.939728300714854,0.0,5.986121467058823,0.1,0.0
8
+ TabPFN-TS,59.464285714285715,35.43634457814382,0.0,25.2531360586838,0.0,10.0
9
+ Stat. Ensemble,48.92857142857142,23.85904743187437,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,5.0
10
+ AutoARIMA,41.42857142857143,23.978096972410967,0.0,3.96671253120826,0.0,0.0
11
+ Sundial-Base,38.57142857142858,25.74930746838757,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0
12
+ AutoTheta,35.35714285714286,19.31393356433696,0.0,0.7288304926503824,0.0,0.0
13
+ AutoETS,32.142857142857146,-30.072080218522256,0.0,0.8958939228431373,0.0,0.0
14
+ Seasonal Naive,18.571428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.04917723782336198,0.0,0.0
15
+ Naive,13.750000000000002,-24.765318851224837,0.0,0.05127838559511824,0.0,0.0
16
+ Drift,3.571428571428571,-28.889461313877618,0.0,0.04833643247478821,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Chronos-2,91.46825396825398,40.54860569361472,0.0,1.0048769279378604,0.0,0.0
3
- TimesFM-2.5,81.74603174603175,34.500793105822616,0.0,0.634193638575108,0.1111111111111111,0.0
4
- TiRex,80.15873015873015,34.10940650365518,0.0,0.12270568949778277,0.0,0.0
5
- Toto-1.0,72.02380952380952,32.22183933140553,0.0,20.37693309206464,0.05555555555555555,0.0
6
- TabPFN-TS,65.37698412698413,34.68279303354718,0.0,74.43424249856537,0.0,5.555555555555555
7
- Moirai-2.0,61.40873015873015,30.029444673809046,0.0,0.23139575766001647,0.1388888888888889,0.0
8
- Chronos-Bolt,59.02777777777777,28.253812271379864,0.0,0.12904372020784313,0.0,0.0
9
- Sundial-Base,54.96031746031746,28.622701207577784,0.0,7.843398798997882,0.0,0.0
10
- Stat. Ensemble,44.24603174603174,15.228466626283888,0.0,70.18682178316327,0.0,8.333333333333332
11
- AutoARIMA,34.72222222222222,15.377840140911314,0.0,13.86779602162245,0.0,5.555555555555555
12
- AutoTheta,32.142857142857146,12.983523765758987,0.0,2.783008451220238,0.0,0.0
13
- AutoETS,29.464285714285715,10.976143469139254,0.0,1.6747289355714285,0.0,2.7777777777777777
14
- Naive,20.535714285714285,-1.6943912697446217,0.0,0.3094170634187266,0.0,0.0
15
- Seasonal Naive,15.37698412698413,0.0,0.0,0.3065547085,0.0,0.0
16
- Drift,7.34126984126984,-7.00840889544434,0.0,0.3101577249,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Chronos-2,92.85714285714288,36.379613913489294,0.0,0.3572266334258295,0.0,0.0
3
+ TiRex,81.07142857142857,26.676884863739826,0.0,0.07370943284719464,0.0,0.0
4
+ TimesFM-2.5,80.71428571428572,26.63143268920436,0.0,0.19641556213711014,0.2,0.0
5
+ TabPFN-TS,67.67857142857142,31.495409904169957,0.0,25.2531360586838,0.0,10.0
6
+ Chronos-Bolt,59.464285714285715,21.34999371322177,0.0,0.04549884800513035,0.0,0.0
7
+ Moirai-2.0,59.10714285714285,21.832707013778197,0.0,0.21348722605763143,0.25,0.0
8
+ Toto-1.0,55.714285714285715,19.746861195373988,0.0,5.986121467058823,0.1,0.0
9
+ Stat. Ensemble,51.42857142857142,15.056774830590047,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,5.0
10
+ Sundial-Base,50.0,19.631923145741638,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0
11
+ AutoARIMA,37.142857142857146,13.94268827584597,0.0,3.96671253120826,0.0,0.0
12
+ AutoTheta,35.71428571428571,11.9856769445434,0.0,0.7288304926503824,0.0,0.0
13
+ AutoETS,33.92857142857142,9.663626183996287,0.0,0.8958939228431373,0.0,0.0
14
+ Naive,20.178571428571423,-5.797213358383746,0.0,0.05127838559511824,0.0,0.0
15
+ Seasonal Naive,18.571428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.04917723782336198,0.0,0.0
16
+ Drift,6.42857142857143,-11.068952925850128,0.0,0.04833643247478821,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Chronos-2,92.06349206349208,56.12499628981607,0.0,1.0048769279378604,0.0,0.0
3
- TiRex,82.53968253968253,51.557156334970514,0.0,0.12270568949778277,0.0,0.0
4
- TimesFM-2.5,82.14285714285712,51.89340757189349,0.0,0.634193638575108,0.1111111111111111,0.0
5
- Toto-1.0,75.39682539682539,50.13124153601284,0.0,20.37693309206464,0.05555555555555555,0.0
6
- TabPFN-TS,65.77380952380955,49.833203877280994,0.0,74.43424249856537,0.0,5.555555555555555
7
- Moirai-2.0,65.37698412698411,48.40913888769081,0.0,0.23139575766001647,0.1388888888888889,0.0
8
- Chronos-Bolt,62.00396825396825,46.61389713095968,0.0,0.12904372020784313,0.0,0.0
9
- Sundial-Base,50.39682539682539,44.118577564497876,0.0,7.843398798997882,0.0,0.0
10
- Stat. Ensemble,41.86507936507936,25.75379339303633,0.0,70.18682178316327,0.0,8.333333333333332
11
- AutoARIMA,41.07142857142856,32.95200891092176,0.0,13.86779602162245,0.0,5.555555555555555
12
- AutoTheta,30.15873015873015,18.427133883750948,0.0,2.783008451220238,0.0,0.0
13
- AutoETS,29.861111111111104,-34.83182100069757,0.0,1.6747289355714285,0.0,2.7777777777777777
14
- Seasonal Naive,17.36111111111111,0.0,0.0,0.3065547085,0.0,0.0
15
- Naive,11.21031746031746,-41.394737237440005,0.0,0.3094170634187266,0.0,0.0
16
- Drift,2.777777777777778,-46.75544698298395,0.0,0.3101577249,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Chronos-2,93.21428571428572,48.70640032243877,0.0,0.3572266334258295,0.0,0.0
3
+ TiRex,84.28571428571426,41.29715572696604,0.0,0.07370943284719464,0.0,0.0
4
+ TimesFM-2.5,81.78571428571428,41.64654333985731,0.0,0.19641556213711014,0.2,0.0
5
+ TabPFN-TS,70.53571428571429,44.77960188404002,0.0,25.2531360586838,0.0,10.0
6
+ Chronos-Bolt,65.17857142857143,37.464866804831296,0.0,0.04549884800513035,0.0,0.0
7
+ Moirai-2.0,64.82142857142857,37.53610716017488,0.0,0.21348722605763143,0.25,0.0
8
+ Toto-1.0,61.428571428571445,35.67337775117804,0.0,5.986121467058823,0.1,0.0
9
+ Stat. Ensemble,46.78571428571428,26.910379403137718,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,5.0
10
+ Sundial-Base,44.28571428571429,30.894178482978774,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0
11
+ AutoARIMA,41.785714285714285,28.45447313005621,0.0,3.96671253120826,0.0,0.0
12
+ AutoTheta,33.92857142857143,21.431184897649857,0.0,0.7288304926503824,0.0,0.0
13
+ AutoETS,30.0,-32.00072832424261,0.0,0.8958939228431373,0.0,0.0
14
+ Seasonal Naive,16.42857142857143,0.0,0.0,0.04917723782336198,0.0,0.0
15
+ Naive,11.964285714285715,-25.330360744270486,0.0,0.05127838559511824,0.0,0.0
16
+ Drift,3.571428571428572,-29.953276469478407,0.0,0.04833643247478821,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.611,0.889,0.077,0.039,0.121
4
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.778,0.639,0.917,0.088,0.046,0.134
5
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.639,0.472,0.778,0.103,0.055,0.154
6
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.126,0.085,0.172
7
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.134,0.096,0.178
8
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.128,0.079,0.177
9
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.152,0.112,0.196
10
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.209,0.334
11
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.225,0.347
12
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.221,0.341
13
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.302,0.237,0.373
14
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.384,0.31,0.456
15
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.304,0.437
16
- Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.343,0.479
17
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.111,0.389,-0.084,-0.137,-0.041
18
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.611,0.472,0.778,0.012,-0.003,0.027
20
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.528,0.375,0.681,0.028,-0.009,0.067
21
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.778,0.639,0.903,0.052,0.03,0.077
22
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.806,0.681,0.917,0.062,0.039,0.088
23
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.722,0.556,0.861,0.055,-0.023,0.118
24
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.081,0.061,0.104
25
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.21,0.146,0.271
26
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.225,0.167,0.283
27
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.218,0.166,0.274
28
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.243,0.176,0.31
29
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.332,0.261,0.397
30
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.318,0.25,0.383
31
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.363,0.295,0.424
32
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.222,0.083,0.361,-0.096,-0.155,-0.048
33
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.389,0.222,0.528,-0.012,-0.028,0.003
34
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.417,0.75,0.017,-0.024,0.055
36
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.041,0.019,0.063
37
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.051,0.027,0.078
38
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.778,0.639,0.917,0.044,-0.036,0.109
39
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.722,0.944,0.071,0.048,0.095
40
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.861,0.722,0.944,0.2,0.138,0.262
41
- TiRex,AutoTheta,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.216,0.158,0.276
42
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.209,0.159,0.261
43
- TiRex,AutoETS,0.861,0.722,0.944,0.235,0.169,0.3
44
- TiRex,Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.325,0.257,0.388
45
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.31,0.241,0.375
46
- TiRex,Drift,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.356,0.291,0.414
47
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.361,0.222,0.528,-0.115,-0.182,-0.058
48
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.472,0.319,0.625,-0.029,-0.072,0.009
49
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.417,0.25,0.583,-0.017,-0.058,0.023
50
- Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.514,0.806,0.025,-0.014,0.068
52
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.417,0.722,0.035,-0.005,0.077
53
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.528,0.806,0.028,-0.061,0.106
54
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.722,0.556,0.861,0.055,0.014,0.097
55
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.583,0.889,0.187,0.1,0.262
56
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.203,0.127,0.274
57
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.195,0.122,0.267
58
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.222,0.132,0.3
59
- Toto-1.0,Naive,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.313,0.23,0.39
60
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.861,0.722,0.944,0.298,0.212,0.377
61
- Toto-1.0,Drift,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.345,0.268,0.417
62
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.144,-0.208,-0.093
63
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.222,0.097,0.361,-0.055,-0.084,-0.031
64
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.043,-0.067,-0.02
65
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.194,0.486,-0.026,-0.073,0.014
66
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.597,0.444,0.736,0.01,-0.014,0.035
68
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.417,0.75,0.003,-0.086,0.077
69
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.722,0.583,0.861,0.031,0.002,0.055
70
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.166,0.1,0.227
71
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.182,0.123,0.241
72
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.174,0.121,0.229
73
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.202,0.134,0.267
74
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.861,0.722,0.944,0.296,0.223,0.361
75
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.28,0.21,0.343
76
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.861,0.722,0.944,0.328,0.259,0.388
77
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.155,-0.216,-0.106
78
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.194,0.083,0.319,-0.066,-0.096,-0.041
79
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.054,-0.084,-0.027
80
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.278,0.583,-0.036,-0.083,0.005
81
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.403,0.264,0.556,-0.01,-0.036,0.014
82
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.556,0.389,0.722,-0.007,-0.098,0.069
84
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.611,0.444,0.75,0.021,-0.011,0.049
85
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.583,0.889,0.158,0.094,0.217
86
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.174,0.116,0.23
87
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.166,0.111,0.224
88
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.194,0.125,0.261
89
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.288,0.215,0.352
90
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.273,0.202,0.337
91
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.321,0.253,0.383
92
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.147,-0.215,-0.086
93
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.278,0.139,0.444,-0.058,-0.134,0.022
94
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.222,0.083,0.361,-0.046,-0.122,0.034
95
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.194,0.472,-0.029,-0.118,0.057
96
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.25,0.583,-0.003,-0.083,0.079
97
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.444,0.278,0.611,0.007,-0.074,0.089
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
98
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.556,0.389,0.722,0.028,-0.042,0.102
100
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.625,0.472,0.778,0.164,0.076,0.251
101
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.667,0.528,0.806,0.18,0.093,0.265
102
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.778,0.639,0.917,0.172,0.096,0.249
103
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.694,0.556,0.833,0.199,0.104,0.29
104
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.294,0.193,0.392
105
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.861,0.75,0.944,0.278,0.19,0.365
106
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.326,0.232,0.419
107
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.18,-0.243,-0.127
108
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.089,-0.116,-0.065
109
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.167,0.056,0.278,-0.076,-0.105,-0.05
110
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.278,0.139,0.444,-0.058,-0.107,-0.014
111
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.278,0.139,0.417,-0.032,-0.058,-0.002
112
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.389,0.25,0.556,-0.021,-0.052,0.011
113
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.444,0.278,0.611,-0.029,-0.114,0.04
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
114
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.722,0.556,0.861,0.14,0.07,0.204
116
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.778,0.639,0.889,0.156,0.093,0.219
117
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.861,0.722,0.944,0.148,0.091,0.204
118
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.778,0.639,0.889,0.176,0.104,0.249
119
- Sundial-Base,Naive,0.861,0.722,0.944,0.273,0.196,0.343
120
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.861,0.722,0.944,0.257,0.182,0.326
121
- Sundial-Base,Drift,0.861,0.722,0.944,0.307,0.236,0.372
122
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.371,-0.501,-0.265
123
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.139,0.028,0.278,-0.265,-0.373,-0.172
124
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.139,0.056,0.278,-0.251,-0.355,-0.161
125
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.111,0.417,-0.23,-0.354,-0.111
126
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.199,-0.293,-0.112
127
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.111,0.417,-0.187,-0.278,-0.103
128
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.222,0.528,-0.196,-0.335,-0.082
129
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.278,0.139,0.444,-0.162,-0.256,-0.075
130
- Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.778,0.639,0.917,0.02,-0.005,0.042
132
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.611,0.458,0.764,0.01,-0.022,0.043
133
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.043,0.012,0.069
134
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.833,0.722,0.944,0.155,0.098,0.214
135
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.903,0.819,0.972,0.137,0.104,0.171
136
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.194,0.14,0.247
137
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.399,-0.532,-0.29
138
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.291,-0.395,-0.2
139
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.276,-0.382,-0.188
140
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.254,-0.378,-0.145
141
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.139,0.028,0.278,-0.223,-0.318,-0.14
142
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.211,-0.299,-0.131
143
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.194,0.472,-0.22,-0.36,-0.103
144
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.222,0.111,0.361,-0.185,-0.28,-0.103
145
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.222,0.083,0.361,-0.02,-0.044,0.005
146
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.361,0.639,-0.01,-0.049,0.029
148
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.556,0.416,0.695,0.024,0.003,0.046
149
- AutoTheta,Naive,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.138,0.083,0.193
150
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.119,0.082,0.157
151
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.178,0.129,0.228
152
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.385,-0.517,-0.284
153
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.278,-0.378,-0.199
154
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.263,-0.353,-0.189
155
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.243,-0.365,-0.139
156
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.211,-0.297,-0.137
157
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.199,-0.288,-0.125
158
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.222,0.083,0.361,-0.208,-0.332,-0.107
159
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.139,0.056,0.278,-0.174,-0.256,-0.101
160
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.389,0.236,0.542,-0.01,-0.044,0.021
161
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.361,0.639,0.01,-0.03,0.046
162
- AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.583,0.417,0.722,0.033,-0.01,0.077
164
- AutoARIMA,Naive,0.694,0.556,0.833,0.147,0.086,0.207
165
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.861,0.75,0.958,0.128,0.09,0.166
166
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.778,0.639,0.889,0.186,0.127,0.244
167
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.432,-0.594,-0.311
168
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.322,-0.449,-0.213
169
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.139,0.056,0.278,-0.306,-0.429,-0.204
170
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.285,-0.428,-0.152
171
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.253,-0.364,-0.154
172
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.24,-0.353,-0.143
173
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.306,0.167,0.444,-0.249,-0.409,-0.116
174
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.222,0.111,0.361,-0.214,-0.332,-0.116
175
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.045,-0.074,-0.013
176
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.444,0.305,0.584,-0.024,-0.049,-0.003
177
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.278,0.583,-0.034,-0.083,0.009
178
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- AutoETS,Naive,0.694,0.556,0.833,0.118,0.058,0.178
180
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.819,0.681,0.931,0.098,0.06,0.135
181
- AutoETS,Drift,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.158,0.105,0.215
182
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.623,-0.837,-0.45
183
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.498,-0.658,-0.353
184
- Naive,TiRex,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.481,-0.634,-0.347
185
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.456,-0.638,-0.299
186
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.139,0.056,0.278,-0.419,-0.566,-0.286
187
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.405,-0.544,-0.273
188
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.416,-0.644,-0.239
189
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.139,0.056,0.278,-0.376,-0.523,-0.244
190
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.056,0.278,-0.184,-0.273,-0.109
191
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.161,-0.239,-0.091
192
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.306,0.167,0.444,-0.172,-0.261,-0.094
193
- Naive,AutoETS,0.306,0.167,0.444,-0.133,-0.217,-0.062
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
194
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.486,0.361,0.611,-0.022,-0.083,0.03
196
- Naive,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.046,0.032,0.061
197
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.776,-0.436
198
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.465,-0.62,-0.333
199
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.448,-0.601,-0.318
200
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.139,0.056,0.278,-0.424,-0.605,-0.27
201
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.389,-0.523,-0.266
202
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.375,-0.509,-0.254
203
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.139,0.056,0.25,-0.385,-0.574,-0.234
204
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.139,0.056,0.278,-0.346,-0.484,-0.223
205
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.097,0.028,0.181,-0.158,-0.206,-0.116
206
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.135,-0.186,-0.089
207
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.139,0.042,0.25,-0.146,-0.199,-0.098
208
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.181,0.069,0.319,-0.109,-0.155,-0.064
209
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.514,0.389,0.639,0.022,-0.031,0.076
210
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.067,0.014,0.122
212
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.702,-0.919,-0.522
213
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.57,-0.735,-0.418
214
- Drift,TiRex,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.552,-0.707,-0.41
215
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.526,-0.716,-0.366
216
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.139,0.056,0.278,-0.488,-0.635,-0.35
217
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.473,-0.62,-0.338
218
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.484,-0.722,-0.301
219
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.139,0.056,0.278,-0.442,-0.592,-0.309
220
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.241,-0.328,-0.163
221
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.217,-0.295,-0.148
222
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.222,0.111,0.361,-0.228,-0.323,-0.146
223
- Drift,AutoETS,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.188,-0.273,-0.117
224
- Drift,Naive,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.048,-0.065,-0.033
225
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.072,-0.139,-0.014
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.105,0.047,0.172
4
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.12,0.057,0.189
5
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.147,0.085,0.21
6
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.147,0.091,0.208
7
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.212,0.133,0.285
8
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.123,0.048,0.207
9
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.181,0.119,0.241
10
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.184,0.124,0.243
11
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.161,0.309
12
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.16,0.324
13
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.167,0.305
14
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.251,0.452
15
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.315,0.234,0.388
16
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.282,0.471
17
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.118,-0.208,-0.049
18
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.016,-0.005,0.038
20
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.046,0.019,0.078
21
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.65,0.925,0.047,0.027,0.069
22
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.12,0.049,0.2
23
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.02,-0.113,0.124
24
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.084,0.044,0.129
25
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.088,0.058,0.118
26
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.147,0.079,0.223
27
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.156,0.075,0.244
28
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.147,0.089,0.208
29
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.284,0.181,0.37
30
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.234,0.156,0.306
31
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.312,0.214,0.394
32
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.136,-0.233,-0.061
33
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.017,-0.039,0.005
34
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.031,-0.001,0.062
36
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.031,0.001,0.057
37
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.105,0.033,0.185
38
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.004,-0.126,0.108
39
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.069,0.028,0.113
40
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.073,0.039,0.107
41
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.132,0.066,0.208
42
+ TiRex,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.142,0.061,0.233
43
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.08,0.189
44
+ TiRex,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.272,0.172,0.357
45
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.222,0.146,0.292
46
+ TiRex,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.301,0.208,0.38
47
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.172,-0.265,-0.093
48
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.049,-0.084,-0.019
49
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.031,-0.066,0.001
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
50
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.375,0.775,0.0,-0.019,0.019
52
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.077,0.005,0.152
53
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.028,-0.162,0.088
54
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.039,0.012,0.077
55
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.044,0.014,0.075
56
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.105,0.04,0.176
57
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.115,0.033,0.196
58
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.106,0.046,0.164
59
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.249,0.143,0.338
60
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.197,0.115,0.268
61
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.279,0.178,0.362
62
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.173,-0.262,-0.1
63
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.075,0.35,-0.049,-0.074,-0.027
64
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.032,-0.061,-0.001
65
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.425,0.225,0.625,-0.0,-0.019,0.019
66
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.076,0.002,0.156
68
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.85,-0.028,-0.163,0.085
69
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.039,0.01,0.078
70
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.043,0.016,0.072
71
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.105,0.038,0.179
72
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.115,0.031,0.204
73
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.105,0.045,0.167
74
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.249,0.14,0.338
75
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.197,0.112,0.272
76
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.279,0.178,0.363
77
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.399,-0.153
78
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.136,-0.25,-0.052
79
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.117,-0.227,-0.035
80
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.083,-0.179,-0.005
81
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.083,-0.185,-0.002
82
+ Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.525,0.325,0.725,-0.113,-0.269,0.033
84
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.041,-0.11,0.022
85
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.036,-0.131,0.043
86
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.031,0.009,0.052
87
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.041,0.013,0.071
88
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.031,-0.011,0.072
89
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.187,0.106,0.265
90
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.13,0.09,0.168
91
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.219,0.144,0.293
92
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.14,-0.261,-0.051
93
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.02,-0.142,0.101
94
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.004,-0.121,0.112
95
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.027,-0.097,0.14
96
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.15,0.6,0.027,-0.092,0.14
97
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.475,0.275,0.675,0.102,-0.034,0.212
98
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.065,-0.055,0.173
100
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.07,-0.034,0.168
101
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.129,-0.007,0.242
102
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.139,-0.001,0.256
103
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.13,0.022,0.225
104
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.269,0.12,0.394
105
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.625,0.925,0.219,0.088,0.326
106
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.298,0.155,0.423
107
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.22,-0.318,-0.135
108
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.092,-0.148,-0.046
109
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.074,-0.128,-0.029
110
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.041,-0.083,-0.012
111
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.041,-0.084,-0.01
112
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.039,-0.022,0.099
113
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.07,-0.21,0.052
114
+ Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.004,-0.04,0.038
116
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.068,0.015,0.12
117
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.079,0.008,0.144
118
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.069,0.019,0.118
119
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.218,0.111,0.301
120
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.164,0.088,0.227
121
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.249,0.152,0.325
122
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.226,-0.321,-0.141
123
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.097,-0.134,-0.061
124
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.079,-0.12,-0.04
125
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.046,-0.081,-0.014
126
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.045,-0.077,-0.016
127
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.035,-0.045,0.116
128
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.075,-0.201,0.033
129
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.004,-0.04,0.038
130
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.064,-0.009,0.142
132
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.075,-0.013,0.163
133
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.065,0.006,0.122
134
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.215,0.092,0.312
135
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.16,0.068,0.237
136
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.246,0.133,0.337
137
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.31,-0.447,-0.191
138
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.172,-0.287,-0.085
139
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.153,-0.263,-0.071
140
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.117,-0.214,-0.042
141
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.117,-0.218,-0.039
142
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.032,-0.054,-0.009
143
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.148,-0.32,0.007
144
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.073,-0.137,-0.015
145
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.069,-0.166,0.009
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
146
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.011,-0.014,0.04
148
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.001,-0.04,0.048
149
+ AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.161,0.08,0.236
150
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.103,0.062,0.142
151
+ AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.194,0.124,0.261
152
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.48,-0.19
153
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.185,-0.323,-0.081
154
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.166,-0.303,-0.065
155
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.13,-0.244,-0.035
156
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.13,-0.256,-0.032
157
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.043,-0.076,-0.013
158
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.161,-0.344,0.001
159
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.085,-0.168,-0.009
160
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.081,-0.194,0.013
161
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.011,-0.041,0.014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
162
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.011,-0.069,0.042
164
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.151,0.064,0.232
165
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.093,0.047,0.135
166
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.185,0.109,0.257
167
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.311,-0.439,-0.2
168
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.172,-0.263,-0.097
169
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.153,-0.233,-0.087
170
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.118,-0.196,-0.049
171
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.118,-0.201,-0.047
172
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.032,-0.077,0.011
173
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.149,-0.291,-0.022
174
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.074,-0.134,-0.019
175
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.069,-0.139,-0.006
176
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.001,-0.051,0.039
177
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.011,-0.044,0.064
178
+ AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.16,0.072,0.243
180
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.102,0.056,0.141
181
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.194,0.113,0.268
182
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.561,-0.826,-0.336
183
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.396,-0.588,-0.221
184
+ Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.374,-0.555,-0.208
185
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.332,-0.51,-0.167
186
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.331,-0.511,-0.163
187
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.229,-0.361,-0.119
188
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.369,-0.651,-0.136
189
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.279,-0.43,-0.125
190
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.273,-0.454,-0.101
191
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.192,-0.309,-0.087
192
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.178,-0.301,-0.068
193
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.191,-0.321,-0.078
194
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.375,0.225,0.525,-0.069,-0.161,0.001
196
+ Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.04,0.025,0.058
197
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.46,-0.635,-0.305
198
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.306,-0.442,-0.185
199
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.285,-0.413,-0.17
200
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.245,-0.366,-0.13
201
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.245,-0.374,-0.126
202
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.15,-0.202,-0.099
203
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.075,0.375,-0.28,-0.484,-0.097
204
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.196,-0.294,-0.096
205
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.191,-0.311,-0.073
206
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.115,-0.166,-0.066
207
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.102,-0.156,-0.049
208
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.114,-0.165,-0.06
209
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.625,0.475,0.775,0.065,-0.001,0.139
210
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.102,0.042,0.167
212
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.626,-0.892,-0.394
213
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.454,-0.651,-0.273
214
+ Drift,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.43,-0.613,-0.262
215
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.387,-0.568,-0.217
216
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.386,-0.569,-0.217
217
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.28,-0.414,-0.168
218
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.425,-0.733,-0.183
219
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.332,-0.481,-0.179
220
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.326,-0.508,-0.153
221
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.241,-0.353,-0.142
222
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.227,-0.346,-0.122
223
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.24,-0.366,-0.127
224
+ Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.041,-0.061,-0.025
225
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.113,-0.201,-0.044
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.778,0.639,0.889,0.087,0.046,0.131
4
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.085,0.047,0.127
5
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.528,0.806,0.112,0.062,0.161
6
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.138,0.096,0.184
7
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.151,0.11,0.193
8
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.917,0.833,1.0,0.183,0.126,0.242
9
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.209,0.17,0.251
10
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.327,0.481
11
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.281,0.418
12
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.624,0.457,0.749
13
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.451,0.367,0.525
14
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.552,0.458,0.641
15
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.683,0.601,0.744
16
- Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.694,0.617,0.753
17
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.222,0.111,0.361,-0.095,-0.151,-0.049
18
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.472,0.306,0.639,-0.002,-0.017,0.015
20
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.611,0.444,0.778,0.028,-0.012,0.066
21
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.056,0.036,0.077
22
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.07,0.048,0.098
23
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.106,0.024,0.181
24
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.134,0.112,0.158
25
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.348,0.265,0.428
26
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.224,0.357
27
- TiRex,AutoETS,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.589,0.404,0.728
28
- TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.311,0.478
29
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.418,0.605
30
- TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.653,0.57,0.718
31
- TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.665,0.586,0.729
32
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.093,-0.145,-0.05
33
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.528,0.361,0.694,0.002,-0.015,0.017
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.528,0.375,0.681,0.029,-0.009,0.07
36
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.708,0.931,0.057,0.037,0.082
37
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.708,0.931,0.072,0.051,0.096
38
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.806,0.667,0.944,0.107,0.029,0.176
39
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.135,0.115,0.155
40
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.349,0.265,0.428
41
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.226,0.355
42
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.59,0.403,0.728
43
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.4,0.313,0.48
44
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.511,0.419,0.602
45
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.653,0.572,0.718
46
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.665,0.587,0.728
47
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.194,0.472,-0.126,-0.192,-0.066
48
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.389,0.222,0.556,-0.028,-0.07,0.012
49
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.472,0.319,0.625,-0.03,-0.075,0.009
50
- Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.514,0.806,0.029,-0.009,0.071
52
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.417,0.722,0.044,-0.0,0.089
53
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.639,0.472,0.806,0.081,-0.018,0.169
54
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.109,0.074,0.144
55
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.329,0.225,0.426
56
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.269,0.18,0.353
57
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.58,0.385,0.725
58
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.382,0.276,0.474
59
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.496,0.388,0.597
60
- Toto-1.0,Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.643,0.546,0.714
61
- Toto-1.0,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.655,0.561,0.724
62
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.16,-0.225,-0.106
63
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.139,0.028,0.278,-0.059,-0.084,-0.037
64
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.069,0.292,-0.061,-0.09,-0.038
65
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.194,0.486,-0.03,-0.076,0.009
66
- Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.569,0.417,0.708,0.015,-0.009,0.039
68
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.5,0.806,0.053,-0.035,0.129
69
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.082,0.058,0.105
70
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.309,0.22,0.393
71
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.247,0.177,0.318
72
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.569,0.375,0.718
73
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.363,0.27,0.447
74
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.481,0.382,0.578
75
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.632,0.541,0.702
76
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.645,0.558,0.713
77
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.178,-0.239,-0.124
78
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.076,-0.108,-0.051
79
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.069,0.292,-0.077,-0.106,-0.053
80
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.278,0.583,-0.046,-0.098,0.0
81
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.431,0.292,0.583,-0.015,-0.041,0.009
82
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.694,0.528,0.833,0.038,-0.049,0.116
84
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.861,0.75,0.945,0.068,0.036,0.097
85
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.298,0.213,0.378
86
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.235,0.165,0.303
87
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.562,0.363,0.715
88
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.353,0.262,0.432
89
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.473,0.379,0.57
90
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.626,0.538,0.694
91
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.557,0.706
92
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.167,-0.225,-0.319,-0.144
93
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.119,-0.22,-0.024
94
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.194,0.056,0.333,-0.12,-0.214,-0.03
95
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.361,0.194,0.528,-0.088,-0.204,0.017
96
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.194,0.5,-0.056,-0.148,0.034
97
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.306,0.167,0.472,-0.04,-0.132,0.047
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
98
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.556,0.389,0.694,0.031,-0.049,0.106
100
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.792,0.667,0.917,0.27,0.183,0.352
101
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.204,0.124,0.282
102
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.778,0.639,0.917,0.545,0.336,0.708
103
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.328,0.231,0.415
104
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.833,0.986,0.452,0.342,0.559
105
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.611,0.522,0.681
106
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.625,0.539,0.693
107
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.264,-0.335,-0.204
108
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.154,-0.188,-0.126
109
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.156,-0.184,-0.13
110
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.122,-0.168,-0.079
111
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.09,-0.117,-0.061
112
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.139,0.055,0.25,-0.073,-0.107,-0.038
113
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.444,0.306,0.611,-0.032,-0.118,0.046
114
- Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.5,0.806,0.247,0.148,0.342
116
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.778,0.639,0.889,0.179,0.104,0.254
117
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.778,0.639,0.889,0.532,0.317,0.694
118
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.306,0.203,0.401
119
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.435,0.329,0.536
120
- Sundial-Base,Naive,0.917,0.833,1.0,0.599,0.503,0.675
121
- Sundial-Base,Drift,0.917,0.833,1.0,0.613,0.52,0.687
122
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.678,-0.928,-0.485
123
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.533,-0.748,-0.361
124
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.535,-0.748,-0.361
125
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.139,0.028,0.278,-0.491,-0.741,-0.29
126
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.447,-0.647,-0.283
127
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.425,-0.608,-0.27
128
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.208,0.083,0.333,-0.37,-0.543,-0.224
129
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.194,0.5,-0.328,-0.521,-0.173
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.528,0.361,0.694,-0.09,-0.168,-0.023
132
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.421,0.152,0.63
133
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.861,0.75,0.944,0.079,0.041,0.112
134
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.764,0.958,0.249,0.151,0.346
135
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.467,0.382,0.546
136
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.486,0.403,0.562
137
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.539,-0.718,-0.39
138
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.406,-0.554,-0.288
139
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.408,-0.55,-0.291
140
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.367,-0.545,-0.22
141
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.327,-0.465,-0.216
142
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.307,-0.435,-0.198
143
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.257,-0.393,-0.142
144
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.222,0.111,0.361,-0.218,-0.341,-0.116
145
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.472,0.306,0.639,0.083,0.023,0.143
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.778,0.639,0.889,0.451,0.202,0.644
148
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.778,0.639,0.889,0.155,0.09,0.225
149
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.972,0.931,1.0,0.311,0.23,0.401
150
- AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.511,0.424,0.589
151
- AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.528,0.443,0.606
152
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.658,-2.989,-0.841
153
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.436,-2.676,-0.678
154
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.437,-2.672,-0.675
155
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-1.379,-2.635,-0.627
156
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-1.32,-2.549,-0.599
157
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-1.283,-2.506,-0.569
158
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.222,0.083,0.361,-1.199,-2.422,-0.506
159
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.222,0.111,0.361,-1.137,-2.268,-0.464
160
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.726,-1.706,-0.179
161
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.222,0.111,0.361,-0.821,-1.81,-0.253
162
- AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.583,0.417,0.75,-0.615,-1.543,-0.095
164
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.792,0.667,0.903,-0.324,-1.133,0.107
165
- AutoETS,Naive,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.035,-0.64,0.385
166
- AutoETS,Drift,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.063,-0.6,0.407
167
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.821,-1.104,-0.58
168
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.664,-0.916,-0.452
169
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.666,-0.921,-0.457
170
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.618,-0.903,-0.382
171
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.571,-0.808,-0.371
172
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.547,-0.761,-0.355
173
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.487,-0.711,-0.301
174
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.442,-0.67,-0.255
175
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.139,0.056,0.25,-0.085,-0.127,-0.043
176
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.222,0.111,0.361,-0.183,-0.29,-0.099
177
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.417,0.25,0.583,0.381,0.087,0.607
178
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.185,0.08,0.288
180
- AutoTheta,Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.422,0.336,0.498
181
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.442,0.359,0.518
182
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.234,-1.783,-0.846
183
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.041,-1.533,-0.718
184
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.044,-1.511,-0.722
185
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.985,-1.482,-0.633
186
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.927,-1.368,-0.619
187
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.897,-1.324,-0.609
188
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.014,0.167,-0.825,-1.269,-0.519
189
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.768,-1.154,-0.49
190
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.042,0.236,-0.331,-0.528,-0.177
191
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.028,0.0,0.069,-0.452,-0.67,-0.298
192
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.208,0.097,0.333,0.245,-0.119,0.531
193
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.227,-0.404,-0.087
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
194
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.736,0.639,0.833,0.291,0.18,0.398
196
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.315,0.204,0.42
197
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.151,-2.911,-1.507
198
- Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.878,-2.551,-1.326
199
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.883,-2.548,-1.336
200
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.799,-2.5,-1.204
201
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.056,0.0,0.139,-1.717,-2.358,-1.178
202
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.676,-2.27,-1.166
203
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.056,0.0,0.139,-1.573,-2.136,-1.094
204
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.167,-1.494,-2.073,-1.011
205
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.877,-1.202,-0.618
206
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.047,-1.434,-0.736
207
- Naive,AutoETS,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.036,-0.626,0.39
208
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.73,-0.994,-0.505
209
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.264,0.167,0.361,-0.41,-0.661,-0.22
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.035,0.025,0.045
212
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.264,-3.051,-1.612
213
- Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.982,-2.694,-1.413
214
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.986,-2.676,-1.419
215
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.899,-2.623,-1.28
216
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.815,-2.486,-1.265
217
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.772,-2.398,-1.256
218
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.056,0.0,0.139,-1.665,-2.253,-1.171
219
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.167,-1.583,-2.193,-1.083
220
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.945,-1.285,-0.674
221
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.121,-1.54,-0.796
222
- Drift,AutoETS,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.067,-0.686,0.375
223
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.792,-1.074,-0.561
224
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.461,-0.725,-0.256
225
- Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.036,-0.047,-0.026
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.113,0.05,0.183
4
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.174
5
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.15,0.091,0.211
6
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.157,0.095,0.219
7
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.189,0.119,0.253
8
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.132,0.051,0.216
9
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.185,0.334
10
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.19,0.335
11
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.186,0.302
12
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.305,0.219,0.389
13
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.544,0.291,0.735
14
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.349,0.516
15
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.436,0.64
16
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.565,0.454,0.651
17
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.127,-0.224,-0.052
18
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.005,-0.02,0.012
20
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.041,0.019,0.066
21
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.05,0.022,0.081
22
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.085,0.046,0.129
23
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.021,-0.113,0.133
24
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.17,0.103,0.244
25
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.169,0.119,0.221
26
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.149,0.116,0.183
27
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.146,0.291
28
+ TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.488,0.191,0.704
29
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.285,0.444
30
+ TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.494,0.386,0.578
31
+ TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.406,0.593
32
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.122,-0.211,-0.053
33
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.005,-0.012,0.019
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.65,0.925,0.046,0.027,0.067
36
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.054,0.028,0.086
37
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.089,0.048,0.136
38
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.026,-0.105,0.134
39
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.174,0.102,0.254
40
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.173,0.118,0.229
41
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.153,0.125,0.183
42
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.221,0.141,0.299
43
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.489,0.194,0.705
44
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.282,0.452
45
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.496,0.383,0.581
46
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.404,0.595
47
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.176,-0.268,-0.1
48
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.043,-0.071,-0.019
49
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.075,0.35,-0.048,-0.072,-0.027
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
50
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.425,0.8,0.009,-0.005,0.025
52
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.9,0.046,0.016,0.087
53
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.021,-0.159,0.096
54
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.135,0.059,0.211
55
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.133,0.079,0.19
56
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.113,0.085,0.14
57
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.183,0.106,0.259
58
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.468,0.158,0.691
59
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.341,0.248,0.419
60
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.472,0.356,0.561
61
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.376,0.575
62
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.187,-0.28,-0.105
63
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.053,-0.088,-0.023
64
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.058,-0.094,-0.029
65
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.375,0.2,0.575,-0.009,-0.026,0.005
66
+ Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.037,0.009,0.076
68
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.03,-0.173,0.09
69
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.127,0.05,0.204
70
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.125,0.069,0.182
71
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.104,0.077,0.13
72
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.176,0.099,0.252
73
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.466,0.154,0.691
74
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.335,0.24,0.415
75
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.467,0.348,0.557
76
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.484,0.368,0.573
77
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.232,-0.339,-0.135
78
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.093,-0.148,-0.048
79
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.098,-0.158,-0.05
80
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.1,0.425,-0.048,-0.095,-0.016
81
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.038,-0.083,-0.009
82
+ Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.07,-0.211,0.053
84
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.093,0.03,0.155
85
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.092,0.047,0.141
86
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.07,0.026,0.106
87
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.144,0.083,0.205
88
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.447,0.124,0.688
89
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.309,0.224,0.379
90
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.446,0.331,0.535
91
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.464,0.352,0.552
92
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.152,-0.275,-0.053
93
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.022,-0.153,0.101
94
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.027,-0.155,0.095
95
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.02,-0.106,0.137
96
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.029,-0.099,0.148
97
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.065,-0.056,0.174
98
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.675,0.475,0.875,0.152,0.038,0.257
100
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.151,0.04,0.249
101
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.13,0.03,0.224
102
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.2,0.065,0.321
103
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.475,0.164,0.703
104
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.354,0.221,0.462
105
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.483,0.342,0.595
106
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.499,0.364,0.61
107
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.359,-0.501,-0.227
108
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.205,-0.323,-0.115
109
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.211,-0.34,-0.113
110
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.156,-0.267,-0.062
111
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.145,-0.256,-0.052
112
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.103,-0.183,-0.031
113
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.325,0.125,0.525,-0.179,-0.346,-0.04
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
114
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.002,-0.063,0.047
116
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.025,-0.123,0.055
117
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.056,0.003,0.105
118
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.399,0.052,0.666
119
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.239,0.176,0.293
120
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.39,0.284,0.48
121
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.307,0.497
122
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.357,-0.504,-0.234
123
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.203,-0.284,-0.135
124
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.209,-0.298,-0.134
125
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.154,-0.235,-0.086
126
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.143,-0.222,-0.074
127
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.101,-0.164,-0.05
128
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.177,-0.331,-0.041
129
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,0.002,-0.049,0.059
130
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.024,-0.088,0.037
132
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.058,0.0,0.116
133
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.395,0.042,0.661
134
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.24,0.165,0.309
135
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.391,0.278,0.486
136
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.41,0.302,0.502
137
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.432,-0.229
138
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.175,-0.223,-0.132
139
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.181,-0.224,-0.143
140
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.127,-0.163,-0.093
141
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.116,-0.15,-0.084
142
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.075,-0.118,-0.027
143
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.15,-0.288,-0.031
144
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.025,-0.059,0.109
145
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.023,-0.039,0.081
146
+ Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.08,-0.01,0.169
148
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.403,0.057,0.668
149
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.257,0.152,0.353
150
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.405,0.266,0.51
151
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.424,0.286,0.526
152
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.44,-0.637,-0.281
153
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.277,-0.411,-0.171
154
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.283,-0.427,-0.164
155
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.225,-0.349,-0.118
156
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.213,-0.337,-0.11
157
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.168,-0.258,-0.09
158
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.25,-0.474,-0.07
159
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.06,-0.117,-0.003
160
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.061,-0.131,-0.0
161
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.087,-0.203,0.01
162
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.369,-0.012,0.652
164
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.193,0.137,0.247
165
+ AutoTheta,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.353,0.251,0.43
166
+ AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.277,0.447
167
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.192,-2.773,-0.411
168
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.953,-2.38,-0.237
169
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.958,-2.393,-0.241
170
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.881,-2.241,-0.188
171
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.872,-2.24,-0.181
172
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.809,-2.209,-0.142
173
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.905,-2.366,-0.197
174
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.665,-1.992,-0.055
175
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.653,-1.949,-0.043
176
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.676,-2.014,-0.06
177
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.586,-1.876,0.012
178
+ AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.301,-1.412,0.175
180
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.043,-1.076,0.378
181
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.014,-1.022,0.397
182
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.785,-1.067,-0.536
183
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.797,-0.399
184
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.825,-0.393
185
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.518,-0.722,-0.33
186
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.504,-0.709,-0.316
187
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.448,-0.611,-0.288
188
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.549,-0.858,-0.284
189
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.313,-0.414,-0.213
190
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.315,-0.447,-0.197
191
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.347,-0.545,-0.179
192
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.239,-0.328,-0.159
193
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.231,-0.212,0.585
194
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.725,0.6,0.85,0.198,0.091,0.295
196
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.224,0.122,0.317
197
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.226,-1.776,-0.774
198
+ Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.975,-1.371,-0.63
199
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.984,-1.389,-0.621
200
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.893,-1.279,-0.553
201
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.876,-1.258,-0.534
202
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.807,-1.152,-0.495
203
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.932,-1.47,-0.519
204
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.639,-0.922,-0.397
205
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.641,-0.945,-0.386
206
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.68,-1.04,-0.362
207
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.546,-0.756,-0.335
208
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.041,-0.607,0.518
209
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.275,0.15,0.4,-0.248,-0.419,-0.101
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.032,0.021,0.044
212
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.3,-1.866,-0.83
213
+ Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.04,-1.458,-0.682
214
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.049,-1.467,-0.677
215
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.956,-1.356,-0.603
216
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.938,-1.342,-0.582
217
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.866,-1.232,-0.544
218
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.996,-1.564,-0.573
219
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.693,-0.988,-0.444
220
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.695,-1.006,-0.433
221
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.736,-1.111,-0.401
222
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.597,-0.81,-0.383
223
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.014,-0.659,0.505
224
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.289,-0.465,-0.138
225
+ Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.033,-0.046,-0.022
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.611,0.889,0.092,0.049,0.143
4
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.778,0.639,0.917,0.098,0.053,0.148
5
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.417,0.75,0.123,0.071,0.178
6
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.09,0.049,0.133
7
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.15,0.102,0.204
8
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.171,0.12,0.225
9
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.167,0.122,0.215
10
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.234,0.365
11
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.241,0.36
12
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.317,0.254,0.382
13
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.261,0.407
14
- Chronos-2,Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.415,0.342,0.486
15
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.339,0.475
16
- Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.444,0.376,0.508
17
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.111,0.389,-0.102,-0.166,-0.051
18
- TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.583,0.417,0.75,0.006,-0.011,0.023
20
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.347,0.667,0.034,-0.006,0.077
21
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.722,0.556,0.861,-0.003,-0.094,0.065
22
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.722,0.931,0.064,0.04,0.093
23
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.861,0.75,0.944,0.087,0.055,0.122
24
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.082,0.058,0.106
25
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.227,0.156,0.296
26
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.226,0.167,0.286
27
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.247,0.179,0.315
28
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.264,0.186,0.341
29
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.356,0.279,0.429
30
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.345,0.278,0.415
31
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.388,0.317,0.454
32
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.222,0.083,0.361,-0.108,-0.173,-0.056
33
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.25,0.583,-0.006,-0.023,0.011
34
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.611,0.444,0.778,0.028,-0.012,0.067
36
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.694,0.528,0.833,-0.009,-0.099,0.061
37
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.058,0.038,0.082
38
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.833,1.0,0.082,0.052,0.116
39
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.077,0.048,0.106
40
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.223,0.159,0.291
41
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.221,0.165,0.279
42
- TiRex,AutoTheta,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.243,0.179,0.308
43
- TiRex,AutoETS,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.26,0.188,0.333
44
- TiRex,Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.352,0.278,0.423
45
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.341,0.274,0.408
46
- TiRex,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.384,0.317,0.447
47
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.417,0.25,0.583,-0.14,-0.216,-0.077
48
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.333,0.653,-0.035,-0.084,0.005
49
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.389,0.222,0.556,-0.029,-0.072,0.012
50
- Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.639,0.472,0.806,-0.038,-0.138,0.043
52
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.5,0.806,0.031,-0.006,0.072
53
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.694,0.542,0.833,0.055,0.009,0.103
54
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.694,0.556,0.833,0.05,0.003,0.092
55
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.722,0.556,0.861,0.2,0.108,0.282
56
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.199,0.122,0.275
57
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.221,0.14,0.298
58
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.239,0.148,0.323
59
- Toto-1.0,Naive,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.334,0.244,0.415
60
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.322,0.232,0.406
61
- Toto-1.0,Drift,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.367,0.288,0.442
62
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.099,-0.154,-0.051
63
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.278,0.139,0.444,0.003,-0.07,0.086
64
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.306,0.167,0.472,0.009,-0.065,0.09
65
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.361,0.194,0.528,0.036,-0.045,0.122
66
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.333,0.667,0.067,-0.013,0.148
68
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.556,0.389,0.722,0.09,0.009,0.171
69
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.639,0.472,0.806,0.085,0.012,0.159
70
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.847,0.722,0.944,0.229,0.152,0.306
71
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.228,0.162,0.298
72
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.249,0.173,0.326
73
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.266,0.181,0.352
74
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.358,0.267,0.448
75
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.944,0.875,1.0,0.347,0.269,0.421
76
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.39,0.306,0.472
77
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.177,-0.257,-0.113
78
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.069,0.278,-0.068,-0.102,-0.041
79
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.062,-0.089,-0.039
80
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.194,0.5,-0.032,-0.077,0.006
81
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.333,0.667,-0.071,-0.173,0.013
82
- Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.486,0.764,0.025,-0.002,0.054
84
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.639,0.472,0.806,0.02,-0.009,0.044
85
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.175,0.098,0.246
86
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.173,0.106,0.234
87
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.196,0.123,0.266
88
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.214,0.134,0.293
89
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.312,0.23,0.387
90
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.3,0.225,0.37
91
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.917,0.833,1.0,0.346,0.272,0.413
92
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.207,-0.291,-0.137
93
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.139,0.056,0.25,-0.095,-0.139,-0.058
94
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.167,-0.089,-0.131,-0.054
95
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.306,0.167,0.458,-0.059,-0.115,-0.009
96
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.444,0.278,0.611,-0.098,-0.206,-0.01
97
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.236,0.514,-0.025,-0.057,0.002
98
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.583,0.417,0.75,-0.005,-0.045,0.027
100
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.154,0.076,0.223
101
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.152,0.078,0.218
102
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.175,0.102,0.245
103
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.194,0.107,0.277
104
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.294,0.215,0.371
105
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.283,0.204,0.35
106
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.33,0.256,0.395
107
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.201,-0.274,-0.139
108
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.09,-0.119,-0.062
109
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.083,-0.119,-0.051
110
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.306,0.167,0.444,-0.053,-0.102,-0.003
111
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.361,0.194,0.528,-0.093,-0.189,-0.013
112
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.361,0.194,0.528,-0.02,-0.046,0.009
113
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.25,0.583,0.005,-0.028,0.043
114
- Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.722,0.556,0.861,0.158,0.083,0.232
116
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.157,0.092,0.221
117
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.18,0.108,0.25
118
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.198,0.116,0.279
119
- Sundial-Base,Naive,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.298,0.214,0.377
120
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.286,0.212,0.357
121
- Sundial-Base,Drift,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.333,0.254,0.403
122
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.426,-0.574,-0.305
123
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.294,-0.421,-0.185
124
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.287,-0.41,-0.189
125
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.278,0.139,0.444,-0.251,-0.393,-0.121
126
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.153,0.056,0.278,-0.298,-0.44,-0.18
127
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.139,0.028,0.278,-0.212,-0.326,-0.108
128
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.139,0.028,0.278,-0.182,-0.287,-0.082
129
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.278,0.139,0.444,-0.188,-0.302,-0.09
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.431,0.75,-0.002,-0.037,0.031
132
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.026,-0.002,0.051
133
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.917,0.833,1.0,0.048,0.013,0.087
134
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.166,0.105,0.229
135
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.917,1.0,0.152,0.119,0.191
136
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.208,0.15,0.262
137
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.423,-0.561,-0.318
138
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.292,-0.401,-0.201
139
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.284,-0.386,-0.198
140
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.249,-0.379,-0.139
141
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.296,-0.424,-0.193
142
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.139,0.028,0.278,-0.209,-0.306,-0.119
143
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.179,-0.279,-0.085
144
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.186,-0.284,-0.102
145
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.25,0.569,0.002,-0.032,0.036
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.583,0.417,0.75,0.028,-0.011,0.066
148
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.611,0.444,0.75,0.049,0.0,0.101
149
- AutoARIMA,Naive,0.75,0.611,0.861,0.168,0.103,0.23
150
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.833,0.986,0.154,0.112,0.194
151
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.209,0.147,0.266
152
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.464,-0.617,-0.34
153
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.329,-0.459,-0.217
154
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.321,-0.444,-0.219
155
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.284,-0.424,-0.163
156
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.332,-0.484,-0.21
157
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.244,-0.362,-0.141
158
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.213,-0.324,-0.113
159
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.219,-0.333,-0.121
160
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.026,-0.054,0.002
161
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.25,0.583,-0.028,-0.071,0.011
162
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.556,0.389,0.694,0.023,-0.007,0.058
164
- AutoTheta,Naive,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.144,0.084,0.204
165
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.13,0.093,0.168
166
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.187,0.133,0.239
167
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.497,-0.687,-0.353
168
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.359,-0.519,-0.229
169
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.351,-0.499,-0.231
170
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.139,0.028,0.278,-0.313,-0.477,-0.173
171
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.363,-0.542,-0.221
172
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.139,0.028,0.278,-0.272,-0.413,-0.155
173
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.241,-0.383,-0.12
174
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.247,-0.387,-0.131
175
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.167,-0.05,-0.095,-0.013
176
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.389,0.25,0.556,-0.052,-0.112,-0.0
177
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.444,0.306,0.611,-0.023,-0.061,0.007
178
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- AutoETS,Naive,0.694,0.556,0.833,0.125,0.055,0.195
180
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.847,0.722,0.944,0.11,0.067,0.154
181
- AutoETS,Drift,0.806,0.667,0.944,0.168,0.105,0.232
182
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.711,-0.944,-0.52
183
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.553,-0.752,-0.386
184
- Naive,TiRex,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.543,-0.732,-0.386
185
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.5,-0.71,-0.323
186
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.557,-0.81,-0.364
187
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.453,-0.632,-0.298
188
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.417,-0.59,-0.273
189
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.425,-0.605,-0.273
190
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.2,-0.298,-0.118
191
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.139,0.389,-0.202,-0.299,-0.115
192
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.169,-0.256,-0.091
193
- Naive,AutoETS,0.306,0.167,0.444,-0.142,-0.242,-0.058
194
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.486,0.361,0.611,-0.017,-0.086,0.04
196
- Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.05,0.033,0.067
197
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.682,-0.903,-0.512
198
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.527,-0.71,-0.385
199
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.518,-0.689,-0.378
200
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.475,-0.682,-0.302
201
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.056,0.0,0.125,-0.531,-0.729,-0.368
202
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.429,-0.588,-0.29
203
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.394,-0.539,-0.256
204
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.401,-0.556,-0.269
205
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.042,0.0,0.083,-0.18,-0.236,-0.135
206
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.014,0.167,-0.182,-0.24,-0.127
207
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.149,-0.203,-0.103
208
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.153,0.056,0.278,-0.123,-0.182,-0.071
209
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.514,0.389,0.639,0.017,-0.042,0.079
210
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.065,0.009,0.124
212
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.8,-1.032,-0.603
213
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.634,-0.832,-0.463
214
- Drift,TiRex,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.624,-0.808,-0.465
215
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.579,-0.792,-0.404
216
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.638,-0.895,-0.441
217
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.167,-0.529,-0.705,-0.373
218
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.491,-0.654,-0.345
219
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.499,-0.675,-0.341
220
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.262,-0.355,-0.176
221
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.265,-0.363,-0.173
222
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.23,-0.313,-0.154
223
- Drift,AutoETS,0.194,0.056,0.333,-0.202,-0.303,-0.117
224
- Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.052,-0.071,-0.034
225
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.07,-0.141,-0.01
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.132,0.067,0.202
4
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.133,0.063,0.207
5
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.071,0.008,0.135
6
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.191,0.119,0.266
7
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.186,0.116,0.256
8
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.207,0.141,0.269
9
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.251,0.17,0.328
10
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.208,0.142,0.275
11
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.261,0.188,0.33
12
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.277,0.199,0.353
13
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.203,0.387
14
+ Chronos-2,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.399,0.29,0.491
15
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.364,0.288,0.436
16
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.332,0.512
17
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.153,-0.253,-0.072
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
18
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.001,-0.019,0.021
20
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.07,-0.215,0.048
21
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.068,0.037,0.103
22
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.062,0.034,0.095
23
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.086,0.053,0.125
24
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.137,0.052,0.228
25
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.088,0.049,0.127
26
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.148,0.077,0.221
27
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.167,0.09,0.251
28
+ TiRex,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.188,0.087,0.297
29
+ TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.307,0.2,0.396
30
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.19,0.34
31
+ TiRex,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.34,0.247,0.421
32
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.153,-0.261,-0.068
33
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.001,-0.021,0.019
34
+ TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.071,-0.223,0.052
36
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.725,0.95,0.067,0.037,0.101
37
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.061,0.032,0.094
38
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.925,0.086,0.043,0.132
39
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.136,0.045,0.232
40
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.087,0.052,0.122
41
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.147,0.068,0.228
42
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.166,0.08,0.258
43
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.188,0.079,0.303
44
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.307,0.194,0.403
45
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.266,0.186,0.344
46
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.339,0.237,0.429
47
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.077,-0.156,-0.008
48
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.066,-0.051,0.177
49
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.066,-0.055,0.182
50
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.129,0.005,0.24
52
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.124,0.008,0.231
53
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.146,0.042,0.24
54
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.194,0.085,0.292
55
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.148,0.034,0.25
56
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.204,0.101,0.291
57
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.222,0.109,0.322
58
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.242,0.11,0.353
59
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.352,0.228,0.461
60
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.315,0.215,0.405
61
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.383,0.264,0.482
62
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.236,-0.362,-0.135
63
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.073,-0.115,-0.038
64
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.05,0.275,-0.072,-0.112,-0.038
65
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.148,-0.317,-0.005
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
66
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.475,0.3,0.65,-0.006,-0.032,0.019
68
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.325,0.75,0.02,-0.025,0.064
69
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.074,-0.033,0.18
70
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.021,-0.011,0.053
71
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.086,-0.014,0.17
72
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.008,0.208
73
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.129,0.008,0.253
74
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.257,0.121,0.363
75
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.213,0.119,0.299
76
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.292,0.176,0.39
77
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.229,-0.345,-0.131
78
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.066,-0.104,-0.036
79
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.065,-0.104,-0.033
80
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.141,-0.301,-0.008
81
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.525,0.35,0.7,0.006,-0.02,0.031
82
+ Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.325,0.751,0.026,-0.01,0.064
84
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.08,-0.017,0.174
85
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.027,-0.001,0.058
86
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.092,0.002,0.17
87
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.112,0.023,0.2
88
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.135,0.024,0.244
89
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.261,0.134,0.365
90
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.218,0.132,0.3
91
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.296,0.187,0.39
92
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.261,-0.368,-0.164
93
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.095,-0.142,-0.056
94
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.075,0.425,-0.094,-0.152,-0.045
95
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.172,-0.317,-0.044
96
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.675,-0.02,-0.068,0.025
97
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.249,0.675,-0.027,-0.068,0.009
98
+ Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.055,-0.018,0.129
100
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.001,-0.042,0.045
101
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.067,0.005,0.124
102
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.088,0.024,0.156
103
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.112,0.022,0.207
104
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.241,0.132,0.329
105
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.197,0.128,0.262
106
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.277,0.182,0.356
107
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.335,-0.487,-0.205
108
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.158,-0.296,-0.055
109
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.158,-0.302,-0.047
110
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.24,-0.412,-0.093
111
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.08,-0.219,0.032
112
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.087,-0.211,0.016
113
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.058,-0.148,0.017
114
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.057,-0.184,0.045
116
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.013,-0.03,0.049
117
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.035,0.004,0.065
118
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.06,0.016,0.115
119
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.197,0.11,0.277
120
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.151,0.109,0.188
121
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.235,0.159,0.308
122
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.263,-0.379,-0.165
123
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.096,-0.146,-0.052
124
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.095,-0.139,-0.055
125
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.173,-0.334,-0.035
126
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.022,-0.055,0.011
127
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.028,-0.062,0.001
128
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.001,-0.047,0.04
129
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.054,-0.047,0.156
130
+ Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.066,-0.032,0.151
132
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.087,-0.006,0.183
133
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.11,-0.008,0.23
134
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.24,0.101,0.351
135
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.196,0.103,0.284
136
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.276,0.155,0.379
137
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.353,-0.493,-0.231
138
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.174,-0.284,-0.083
139
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.173,-0.296,-0.073
140
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.256,-0.41,-0.113
141
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.094,-0.205,0.014
142
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.101,-0.204,-0.002
143
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.072,-0.142,-0.005
144
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.013,-0.052,0.029
145
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.071,-0.179,0.031
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.022,-0.021,0.062
148
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.047,-0.015,0.12
149
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.187,0.107,0.262
150
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.139,0.1,0.176
151
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.225,0.155,0.292
152
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.383,-0.546,-0.249
153
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.2,-0.335,-0.099
154
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.2,-0.348,-0.087
155
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.285,-0.475,-0.123
156
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.119,-0.263,-0.008
157
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.126,-0.25,-0.024
158
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.097,-0.185,-0.024
159
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.036,-0.069,-0.004
160
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.095,-0.223,0.006
161
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.023,-0.066,0.021
162
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.026,-0.019,0.079
164
+ AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.168,0.076,0.251
165
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.12,0.079,0.164
166
+ AutoTheta,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.208,0.134,0.278
167
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.42,-0.631,-0.254
168
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.232,-0.422,-0.095
169
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.231,-0.436,-0.086
170
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.319,-0.545,-0.124
171
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.149,-0.338,-0.008
172
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.156,-0.323,-0.025
173
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.126,-0.261,-0.023
174
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.063,-0.13,-0.016
175
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.124,-0.298,0.008
176
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.05,-0.137,0.015
177
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.026,-0.086,0.019
178
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.146,0.035,0.239
180
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.097,0.028,0.152
181
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.187,0.093,0.267
182
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.663,-0.964,-0.408
183
+ Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.443,-0.656,-0.25
184
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.442,-0.676,-0.24
185
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.544,-0.854,-0.296
186
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.345,-0.569,-0.138
187
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.353,-0.574,-0.155
188
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.318,-0.491,-0.152
189
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.246,-0.383,-0.124
190
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.316,-0.541,-0.112
191
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.229,-0.355,-0.12
192
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.202,-0.335,-0.082
193
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.171,-0.315,-0.037
194
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.375,0.225,0.525,-0.058,-0.148,0.031
196
+ Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.026,0.071
197
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.572,-0.772,-0.404
198
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.364,-0.514,-0.235
199
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.363,-0.524,-0.228
200
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.46,-0.681,-0.274
201
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.271,-0.426,-0.135
202
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.279,-0.429,-0.152
203
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.246,-0.354,-0.147
204
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.177,-0.231,-0.122
205
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.244,-0.396,-0.115
206
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.162,-0.213,-0.111
207
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.136,-0.197,-0.086
208
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.107,-0.179,-0.029
209
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.625,0.475,0.775,0.055,-0.032,0.129
210
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.1,0.03,0.167
212
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.746,-1.051,-0.497
213
+ Drift,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.515,-0.727,-0.327
214
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.514,-0.75,-0.311
215
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.621,-0.932,-0.359
216
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.412,-0.638,-0.213
217
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.421,-0.639,-0.23
218
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.384,-0.552,-0.223
219
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.308,-0.445,-0.189
220
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.382,-0.61,-0.183
221
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.291,-0.412,-0.184
222
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.262,-0.386,-0.155
223
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.23,-0.365,-0.103
224
+ Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.076,-0.026
225
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.111,-0.2,-0.031
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.094,0.054,0.139
4
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.778,0.639,0.89,0.088,0.048,0.134
5
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.417,0.75,0.12,0.068,0.175
6
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.125,0.072,0.181
7
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.833,1.0,0.15,0.106,0.199
8
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.178,0.134,0.224
9
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.175,0.256
10
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.34,0.48
11
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.287,0.402
12
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.462,0.388,0.532
13
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.636,0.469,0.76
14
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.561,0.486,0.632
15
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.69,0.624,0.742
16
- Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.701,0.639,0.752
17
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.104,-0.161,-0.057
18
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.444,0.278,0.611,-0.007,-0.025,0.012
20
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.611,0.472,0.778,0.029,-0.01,0.067
21
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.722,0.583,0.861,0.034,-0.058,0.114
22
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.833,1.0,0.061,0.041,0.084
23
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.833,1.0,0.093,0.065,0.125
24
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.133,0.105,0.162
25
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.348,0.266,0.425
26
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.277,0.223,0.334
27
- TiRex,AutoTheta,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.406,0.322,0.484
28
- TiRex,AutoETS,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.6,0.414,0.737
29
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.436,0.592
30
- TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.657,0.586,0.716
31
- TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.67,0.601,0.727
32
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.222,0.11,0.361,-0.096,-0.155,-0.051
33
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.556,0.389,0.722,0.007,-0.012,0.025
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.347,0.667,0.035,-0.006,0.08
36
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.722,0.556,0.861,0.041,-0.05,0.117
37
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.722,0.931,0.068,0.043,0.095
38
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.861,0.75,0.944,0.099,0.07,0.133
39
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.139,0.114,0.163
40
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.352,0.271,0.429
41
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.283,0.226,0.34
42
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.41,0.328,0.488
43
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.601,0.416,0.738
44
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.519,0.443,0.593
45
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.66,0.59,0.718
46
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.672,0.604,0.729
47
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.417,0.25,0.583,-0.137,-0.211,-0.073
48
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.389,0.222,0.528,-0.029,-0.072,0.01
49
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.333,0.653,-0.037,-0.087,0.006
50
- Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.611,0.444,0.75,0.006,-0.1,0.099
52
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.639,0.486,0.778,0.033,-0.005,0.074
53
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.639,0.486,0.792,0.066,0.016,0.118
54
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.108,0.065,0.148
55
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.328,0.229,0.421
56
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.256,0.179,0.33
57
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.389,0.289,0.479
58
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.59,0.398,0.736
59
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.501,0.407,0.588
60
- Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.647,0.568,0.711
61
- Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.66,0.584,0.722
62
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.143,-0.22,-0.078
63
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.278,0.139,0.417,-0.036,-0.128,0.054
64
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.278,0.139,0.444,-0.043,-0.133,0.048
65
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.389,0.25,0.556,-0.006,-0.11,0.091
66
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.528,0.361,0.694,0.028,-0.065,0.117
68
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.333,0.667,0.06,-0.029,0.146
69
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.527,0.806,0.102,0.019,0.185
70
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.847,0.736,0.944,0.324,0.249,0.404
71
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.252,0.179,0.323
72
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.385,0.3,0.463
73
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.59,0.399,0.738
74
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.944,0.875,1.0,0.498,0.409,0.586
75
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.645,0.574,0.702
76
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.658,0.59,0.713
77
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.167,-0.176,-0.249,-0.118
78
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.167,-0.065,-0.092,-0.043
79
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.069,0.278,-0.072,-0.105,-0.045
80
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.361,0.222,0.514,-0.035,-0.08,0.005
81
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.472,0.306,0.639,-0.028,-0.132,0.061
82
- Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.653,0.514,0.778,0.034,0.007,0.063
84
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.077,0.05,0.1
85
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.305,0.216,0.389
86
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.231,0.168,0.291
87
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.368,0.275,0.453
88
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.577,0.381,0.726
89
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.484,0.397,0.563
90
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.635,0.558,0.699
91
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.648,0.575,0.71
92
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.217,-0.289,-0.155
93
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.167,-0.102,-0.143,-0.069
94
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.139,0.056,0.25,-0.11,-0.153,-0.075
95
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.361,0.208,0.514,-0.071,-0.133,-0.016
96
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.333,0.667,-0.064,-0.171,0.028
97
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.347,0.222,0.486,-0.035,-0.068,-0.007
98
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.722,0.583,0.861,0.045,0.007,0.078
100
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.281,0.19,0.364
101
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.204,0.138,0.269
102
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.346,0.252,0.43
103
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.563,0.36,0.716
104
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.466,0.38,0.546
105
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.622,0.547,0.685
106
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.636,0.563,0.697
107
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.274,-0.343,-0.212
108
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.154,-0.193,-0.118
109
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.162,-0.195,-0.129
110
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.121,-0.174,-0.07
111
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.194,0.473,-0.114,-0.227,-0.02
112
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.083,-0.111,-0.052
113
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.278,0.139,0.417,-0.047,-0.084,-0.007
114
- Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.611,0.889,0.247,0.146,0.343
116
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.167,0.095,0.234
117
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.315,0.213,0.411
118
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.544,0.328,0.706
119
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.441,0.349,0.526
120
- Sundial-Base,Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.605,0.521,0.676
121
- Sundial-Base,Drift,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.619,0.537,0.688
122
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.692,-0.922,-0.515
123
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.533,-0.739,-0.362
124
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.543,-0.752,-0.372
125
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.489,-0.727,-0.298
126
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.153,0.056,0.264,-0.48,-0.678,-0.332
127
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.439,-0.635,-0.275
128
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.391,-0.572,-0.235
129
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.111,0.389,-0.329,-0.523,-0.172
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.444,0.292,0.611,-0.107,-0.192,-0.039
132
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.861,0.75,0.944,0.09,0.054,0.125
133
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.438,0.168,0.642
134
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.764,0.958,0.258,0.16,0.351
135
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.475,0.396,0.546
136
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.494,0.417,0.565
137
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.528,-0.671,-0.403
138
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.384,-0.501,-0.287
139
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.394,-0.516,-0.292
140
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.344,-0.493,-0.219
141
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.337,-0.477,-0.218
142
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.3,-0.41,-0.201
143
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.256,-0.368,-0.161
144
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.2,-0.306,-0.104
145
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.556,0.389,0.708,0.097,0.037,0.161
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.778,0.639,0.917,0.178,0.113,0.248
148
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.473,0.226,0.662
149
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.972,0.931,1.0,0.33,0.255,0.414
150
- AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.526,0.45,0.596
151
- AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.543,0.469,0.612
152
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.859,-1.137,-0.633
153
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.684,-0.939,-0.476
154
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.696,-0.952,-0.488
155
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.636,-0.921,-0.407
156
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.626,-0.862,-0.429
157
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.581,-0.827,-0.38
158
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.528,-0.754,-0.338
159
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.46,-0.698,-0.271
160
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.139,0.056,0.25,-0.099,-0.142,-0.057
161
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.222,0.083,0.361,-0.217,-0.33,-0.127
162
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.417,0.25,0.583,0.392,0.104,0.615
164
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.184,0.071,0.284
165
- AutoTheta,Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.423,0.342,0.498
166
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.444,0.366,0.516
167
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.744,-3.165,-0.884
168
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.056,0.0,0.139,-1.498,-2.798,-0.707
169
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.056,0.0,0.139,-1.508,-2.816,-0.713
170
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-1.438,-2.792,-0.661
171
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.139,0.028,0.278,-1.439,-2.811,-0.663
172
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-1.365,-2.647,-0.615
173
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-1.29,-2.525,-0.563
174
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.056,0.306,-1.191,-2.396,-0.489
175
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.779,-1.795,-0.201
176
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.896,-1.963,-0.293
177
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.583,0.417,0.75,-0.646,-1.599,-0.116
178
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.764,0.639,0.889,-0.348,-1.17,0.105
180
- AutoETS,Naive,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.013,-0.682,0.376
181
- AutoETS,Drift,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.043,-0.642,0.398
182
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.279,-1.721,-0.947
183
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.064,-1.454,-0.774
184
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.079,-1.459,-0.794
185
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.005,-1.426,-0.687
186
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.056,0.0,0.125,-0.993,-1.413,-0.691
187
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.938,-1.289,-0.657
188
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.873,-1.201,-0.614
189
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.79,-1.11,-0.536
190
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.042,0.236,-0.347,-0.54,-0.19
191
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.028,0.0,0.069,-0.491,-0.705,-0.342
192
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.226,-0.396,-0.076
193
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.236,0.111,0.361,0.258,-0.118,0.539
194
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.736,0.639,0.833,0.293,0.176,0.399
196
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.319,0.205,0.426
197
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.223,-2.877,-1.657
198
- Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.919,-2.524,-1.417
199
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.939,-2.551,-1.437
200
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.835,-2.456,-1.316
201
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.818,-2.357,-1.348
202
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.056,0.0,0.139,-1.741,-2.319,-1.263
203
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.649,-2.175,-1.209
204
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.056,0.0,0.139,-1.53,-2.083,-1.087
205
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.904,-1.202,-0.656
206
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.109,-1.478,-0.818
207
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.733,-0.992,-0.52
208
- Naive,AutoETS,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.013,-0.603,0.405
209
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.264,0.167,0.361,-0.414,-0.663,-0.214
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Naive,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.037,0.026,0.048
212
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.345,-3.032,-1.768
213
- Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.029,-2.657,-1.506
214
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.051,-2.684,-1.528
215
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.943,-2.592,-1.401
216
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.925,-2.483,-1.437
217
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.845,-2.446,-1.352
218
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.749,-2.301,-1.291
219
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.056,0.0,0.139,-1.626,-2.201,-1.162
220
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.977,-1.297,-0.717
221
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.189,-1.576,-0.884
222
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.799,-1.065,-0.578
223
- Drift,AutoETS,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.045,-0.66,0.391
224
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.468,-0.743,-0.258
225
- Drift,Naive,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.038,-0.05,-0.027
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.126,0.06,0.196
4
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.121,0.056,0.189
5
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.071,-0.006,0.147
6
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.18,0.114,0.243
7
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.179,0.113,0.245
8
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.203,0.132,0.268
9
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.215,0.374
10
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.258,0.199,0.314
11
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.283,0.211,0.352
12
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.255,0.432
13
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.332,0.765
14
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.404,0.561
15
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.591,0.488,0.669
16
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.605,0.505,0.682
17
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.144,-0.244,-0.064
18
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.006,-0.025,0.014
20
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.063,-0.209,0.061
21
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.061,0.035,0.091
22
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.06,0.034,0.093
23
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.087,0.051,0.13
24
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.197,0.116,0.279
25
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.151,0.113,0.191
26
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.18,0.118,0.243
27
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.253,0.167,0.338
28
+ TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.526,0.225,0.736
29
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.332,0.489
30
+ TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.532,0.429,0.611
31
+ TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.448,0.625
32
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.138,-0.233,-0.059
33
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.006,-0.014,0.024
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.057,-0.2,0.063
36
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.725,0.95,0.067,0.038,0.097
37
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.066,0.036,0.099
38
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.925,0.093,0.047,0.143
39
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.202,0.117,0.289
40
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.156,0.12,0.192
41
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.184,0.119,0.251
42
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.257,0.165,0.346
43
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.527,0.231,0.737
44
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.331,0.495
45
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.534,0.428,0.616
46
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.45,0.629
47
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.077,-0.172,0.006
48
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.059,-0.065,0.173
49
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.054,-0.068,0.167
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
50
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.117,-0.005,0.229
52
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.116,-0.01,0.228
53
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.142,0.033,0.24
54
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.775,0.6,0.925,0.244,0.136,0.336
55
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.201,0.092,0.303
56
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.228,0.116,0.318
57
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.297,0.169,0.408
58
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.551,0.27,0.751
59
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.448,0.334,0.545
60
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.559,0.436,0.655
61
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.575,0.456,0.668
62
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.219,-0.322,-0.129
63
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.065,-0.1,-0.036
64
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.05,0.275,-0.072,-0.107,-0.039
65
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.132,-0.296,0.005
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
66
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.525,0.35,0.7,-0.001,-0.023,0.021
68
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.028,-0.02,0.076
69
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.144,0.053,0.238
70
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.095,0.065,0.127
71
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.126,0.055,0.194
72
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.204,0.106,0.299
73
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.498,0.179,0.722
74
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.375,0.282,0.455
75
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.501,0.387,0.59
76
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.519,0.411,0.602
77
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.218,-0.324,-0.127
78
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.064,-0.102,-0.036
79
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.07,-0.11,-0.038
80
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.131,-0.295,0.009
81
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.475,0.3,0.65,0.001,-0.022,0.023
82
+ Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.029,-0.012,0.07
84
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.145,0.063,0.23
85
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.096,0.066,0.128
86
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.127,0.065,0.19
87
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.205,0.115,0.291
88
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.501,0.186,0.725
89
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.375,0.287,0.452
90
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.502,0.387,0.587
91
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.519,0.41,0.603
92
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.254,-0.366,-0.152
93
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.096,-0.149,-0.054
94
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.075,0.425,-0.102,-0.167,-0.049
95
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.165,-0.316,-0.034
96
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.029,-0.082,0.019
97
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.03,-0.075,0.012
98
+ Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.12,0.055,0.184
100
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.069,0.019,0.123
101
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.101,0.059,0.146
102
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.181,0.112,0.251
103
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.488,0.156,0.72
104
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.279,0.424
105
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.378,0.569
106
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.402,0.583
107
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.425,-0.597,-0.273
108
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.245,-0.387,-0.131
109
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.253,-0.406,-0.133
110
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.225,0.075,0.4,-0.324,-0.506,-0.158
111
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.169,-0.313,-0.056
112
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.17,-0.298,-0.067
113
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.136,-0.226,-0.059
114
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.058,-0.181,0.048
116
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.022,-0.075,0.021
117
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.07,0.018,0.117
118
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.429,0.064,0.691
119
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.269,0.21,0.321
120
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.417,0.314,0.502
121
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.339,0.519
122
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.347,-0.457,-0.248
123
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.177,-0.236,-0.127
124
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.184,-0.237,-0.136
125
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.251,-0.435,-0.101
126
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.105,-0.145,-0.069
127
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.106,-0.147,-0.07
128
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.074,-0.14,-0.019
129
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.055,-0.05,0.154
130
+ Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.034,-0.055,0.116
132
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.12,0.006,0.226
133
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.447,0.097,0.697
134
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.309,0.203,0.402
135
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.449,0.314,0.553
136
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.468,0.337,0.567
137
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.395,-0.544,-0.267
138
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.219,-0.321,-0.134
139
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.226,-0.336,-0.135
140
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.296,-0.466,-0.132
141
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.144,-0.241,-0.058
142
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.145,-0.235,-0.069
143
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.112,-0.17,-0.062
144
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.021,-0.022,0.07
145
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.035,-0.131,0.052
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.089,0.037,0.149
148
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.435,0.075,0.691
149
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.219,0.346
150
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.429,0.327,0.513
151
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.449,0.355,0.529
152
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.532,-0.759,-0.343
153
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.338,-0.51,-0.2
154
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.346,-0.529,-0.198
155
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.423,-0.689,-0.203
156
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.256,-0.426,-0.119
157
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.258,-0.411,-0.13
158
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.221,-0.334,-0.126
159
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.075,-0.132,-0.018
160
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.137,-0.293,-0.006
161
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.098,-0.175,-0.038
162
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.392,-0.012,0.671
164
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.214,0.158,0.27
165
+ AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.272,0.447
166
+ AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.299,0.464
167
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.396,-3.252,-0.496
168
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.109,-2.782,-0.291
169
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.115,-2.802,-0.3
170
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-1.228,-3.019,-0.37
171
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.99,-2.591,-0.219
172
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-1.003,-2.631,-0.228
173
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.952,-2.567,-0.185
174
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.75,-2.233,-0.069
175
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.809,-2.3,-0.108
176
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.769,-2.239,-0.081
177
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.644,-2.042,0.012
178
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.32,-1.467,0.188
180
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.053,-1.109,0.384
181
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.021,-1.06,0.404
182
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.95,-1.275,-0.677
183
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.703,-0.957,-0.497
184
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.714,-0.982,-0.495
185
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.811,-1.198,-0.501
186
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.599,-0.835,-0.393
187
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.601,-0.824,-0.402
188
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.736,-0.387
189
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.368,-0.473,-0.266
190
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.447,-0.673,-0.255
191
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.398,-0.529,-0.28
192
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.273,-0.369,-0.188
193
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.25,0.05,0.45,0.242,-0.231,0.595
194
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.725,0.6,0.85,0.202,0.09,0.304
196
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.23,0.125,0.325
197
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.443,-2.025,-0.952
198
+ Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.135,-1.569,-0.753
199
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.148,-1.606,-0.749
200
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.27,-1.898,-0.773
201
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.004,-1.437,-0.632
202
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.006,-1.422,-0.631
203
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.948,-1.319,-0.609
204
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.715,-1.009,-0.457
205
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.814,-1.235,-0.458
206
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.752,-1.055,-0.486
207
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.595,-0.807,-0.374
208
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.051,-0.623,0.526
209
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.275,0.15,0.4,-0.253,-0.437,-0.099
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.036,0.022,0.051
212
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.534,-2.145,-1.018
213
+ Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.214,-1.665,-0.811
214
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.227,-1.693,-0.82
215
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.353,-2.009,-0.838
216
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.078,-1.51,-0.697
217
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.08,-1.516,-0.696
218
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.02,-1.398,-0.672
219
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.778,-1.08,-0.514
220
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.88,-1.308,-0.508
221
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.816,-1.123,-0.55
222
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.654,-0.866,-0.426
223
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.021,-0.678,0.515
224
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.3,-0.481,-0.143
225
+ Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.037,-0.053,-0.022
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Chronos-2,87.59398496240601,32.78464875613191,0.0,0.3596606613432836,0.0,0.0
3
- TiRex,81.57894736842105,27.57437989399548,0.0,0.12988266882352942,0.0,0.0
4
- TimesFM-2.5,81.20300751879697,28.82143712250208,0.0,0.597465887542373,0.10526315789473684,0.0
5
- Moirai-2.0,71.2406015037594,27.5654560234301,0.0,0.2502934766666667,0.3684210526315789,0.0
6
- Chronos-Bolt,68.60902255639098,26.40238750826901,0.0,0.15470306411764706,0.0,0.0
7
- Toto-1.0,65.41353383458647,25.380773074933096,0.0,10.389540521333334,0.10526315789473684,0.0
8
- Sundial-Base,63.533834586466156,23.22198339111693,0.0,8.139341805,0.0,0.0
9
- TabPFN-TS,50.93984962406015,22.233156400772458,0.0,68.84249116642856,0.0,10.526315789473683
10
- Stat. Ensemble,43.98496240601503,18.848566093602017,0.0,153.52471474263552,0.0,5.263157894736842
11
- AutoETS,36.46616541353383,17.681236252986597,0.0,3.5267286662745096,0.0,0.0
12
- AutoARIMA,34.58646616541354,14.10980737202614,0.0,74.68622603863636,0.0,0.0
13
- AutoTheta,32.70676691729323,13.835663521549623,0.0,3.1771899728377058,0.0,0.0
14
- Seasonal Naive,13.345864661654133,0.0,0.0,0.42818580019607844,0.0,0.0
15
- Naive,12.406015037593985,-11.41575828657999,0.0,0.4454413803921568,0.0,0.0
16
- Drift,6.390977443609022,-12.843541774596613,0.0,0.4046081805882353,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Chronos-2,87.5,32.33462583489032,0.0,0.34862936275497514,0.0,0.0
3
+ TiRex,82.14285714285714,27.393757851738563,0.0,0.12056570828620417,0.0,0.0
4
+ TimesFM-2.5,82.14285714285714,28.58993577814578,0.0,0.5763130827970966,0.1,0.0
5
+ Moirai-2.0,71.07142857142857,27.327119457216774,0.0,0.24129671231988042,0.4,0.0
6
+ Chronos-Bolt,68.57142857142856,26.21901130113915,0.0,0.1322703744317049,0.0,0.0
7
+ Toto-1.0,64.28571428571429,25.161403711604645,0.0,10.207355941916667,0.1,0.0
8
+ Sundial-Base,64.28571428571429,23.2064084542026,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0
9
+ TabPFN-TS,51.25000000000001,22.24063378407398,0.0,59.46589885165178,0.0,10.0
10
+ Stat. Ensemble,44.28571428571429,19.015945347692732,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,5.0
11
+ AutoETS,36.07142857142858,17.603485534435016,0.0,3.3284211108491193,0.0,0.0
12
+ AutoARIMA,33.92857142857143,14.206772558259006,0.0,74.34524439111118,0.0,0.0
13
+ AutoTheta,32.85714285714285,14.04647577833794,0.0,3.1050995276688527,0.0,0.0
14
+ Seasonal Naive,13.392857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.33344394039464936,0.0,0.0
15
+ Naive,12.142857142857146,-12.05830008930513,0.0,0.33027376482294407,0.0,0.0
16
+ Drift,6.071428571428572,-13.72534923283335,0.0,0.3192311944547016,0.0,0.0
tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Chronos-2,89.47368421052634,40.72202740438211,0.0,0.3596606613432836,0.0,0.0
3
- TiRex,85.71428571428571,35.962093804890515,0.0,0.12988266882352942,0.0,0.0
4
- TimesFM-2.5,80.82706766917292,36.471293916922356,0.0,0.597465887542373,0.10526315789473684,0.0
5
- Moirai-2.0,75.0,35.502197955574765,0.0,0.2502934766666667,0.3684210526315789,0.0
6
- Chronos-Bolt,73.87218045112782,34.80798173837572,0.0,0.15470306411764706,0.0,0.0
7
- Toto-1.0,66.9172932330827,33.82862396618327,0.0,10.389540521333334,0.10526315789473684,0.0
8
- TabPFN-TS,56.954887218045116,30.792818876420668,0.0,68.84249116642856,0.0,10.526315789473683
9
- Sundial-Base,47.36842105263158,26.67026914523769,0.0,8.139341805,0.0,0.0
10
- Stat. Ensemble,41.72932330827067,23.05686979280783,0.0,153.52471474263552,0.0,5.263157894736842
11
- AutoARIMA,38.34586466165414,21.117177798039243,0.0,74.68622603863636,0.0,0.0
12
- AutoETS,36.46616541353384,21.215845684791667,0.0,3.5267286662745096,0.0,0.0
13
- AutoTheta,25.93984962406015,15.397822263122318,0.0,3.1771899728377058,0.0,0.0
14
- Seasonal Naive,17.85714285714286,0.0,0.0,0.42818580019607844,0.0,0.0
15
- Naive,9.774436090225562,-42.68722213493872,0.0,0.4454413803921568,0.0,0.0
16
- Drift,3.7593984962406015,-43.44842182927362,0.0,0.4046081805882353,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Chronos-2,89.28571428571429,40.241553662568045,0.0,0.34862936275497514,0.0,0.0
3
+ TiRex,86.07142857142858,35.70932539579903,0.0,0.12056570828620417,0.0,0.0
4
+ TimesFM-2.5,81.78571428571428,36.215123642926486,0.0,0.5763130827970966,0.1,0.0
5
+ Moirai-2.0,75.0,35.235748261795464,0.0,0.24129671231988042,0.4,0.0
6
+ Chronos-Bolt,73.92857142857142,34.57369587246277,0.0,0.1322703744317049,0.0,0.0
7
+ Toto-1.0,66.42857142857143,33.56878978918307,0.0,10.207355941916667,0.1,0.0
8
+ TabPFN-TS,57.32142857142858,30.731316106319685,0.0,59.46589885165178,0.0,10.0
9
+ Sundial-Base,47.14285714285714,26.53990685654952,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0
10
+ Stat. Ensemble,42.142857142857146,23.310736729304406,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,5.0
11
+ AutoARIMA,38.214285714285715,21.22121312418056,0.0,74.34524439111118,0.0,0.0
12
+ AutoETS,35.35714285714285,20.12076697801173,0.0,3.3284211108491193,0.0,0.0
13
+ AutoTheta,26.071428571428573,15.776905389926565,0.0,3.1050995276688527,0.0,0.0
14
+ Seasonal Naive,18.035714285714285,0.0,0.0,0.33344394039464936,0.0,0.0
15
+ Naive,9.642857142857144,-43.69147280742762,0.0,0.33027376482294407,0.0,0.0
16
+ Drift,3.571428571428571,-44.7554216841189,0.0,0.3192311944547016,0.0,0.0
tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Chronos-2,87.96992481203009,35.17312881509809,0.0,0.3596606613432836,0.0,0.0
3
- TimesFM-2.5,81.57894736842105,30.54536278105392,0.0,0.597465887542373,0.10526315789473684,0.0
4
- TiRex,80.07518796992483,30.263088692563134,0.0,0.12988266882352942,0.0,0.0
5
- Moirai-2.0,70.48872180451127,29.645021014181204,0.0,0.2502934766666667,0.3684210526315789,0.0
6
- Chronos-Bolt,67.4812030075188,27.247500642971858,0.0,0.15470306411764706,0.0,0.0
7
- Toto-1.0,63.90977443609023,27.341499943772085,0.0,10.389540521333334,0.10526315789473684,0.0
8
- Sundial-Base,60.90225563909774,24.785057960011926,0.0,8.139341805,0.0,0.0
9
- TabPFN-TS,56.57894736842105,25.96438655894233,0.0,68.84249116642856,0.0,10.526315789473683
10
- Stat. Ensemble,46.2406015037594,19.877790263543037,0.0,153.52471474263552,0.0,5.263157894736842
11
- AutoETS,36.84210526315789,18.906583814382373,0.0,3.5267286662745096,0.0,0.0
12
- AutoARIMA,36.46616541353383,17.80299638057865,0.0,74.68622603863636,0.0,0.0
13
- AutoTheta,28.947368421052627,14.130105154815109,0.0,3.1771899728377058,0.0,0.0
14
- Naive,15.037593984962406,-11.021982498939442,0.0,0.4454413803921568,0.0,0.0
15
- Seasonal Naive,11.466165413533833,0.0,0.0,0.42818580019607844,0.0,0.0
16
- Drift,6.015037593984962,-12.893233146761673,0.0,0.4046081805882353,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Chronos-2,88.21428571428572,34.73588594604664,0.0,0.34862936275497514,0.0,0.0
3
+ TimesFM-2.5,82.5,30.331123145065753,0.0,0.5763130827970966,0.1,0.0
4
+ TiRex,80.35714285714286,30.04838154281978,0.0,0.12056570828620417,0.0,0.0
5
+ Moirai-2.0,70.0,29.395644929393384,0.0,0.24129671231988042,0.4,0.0
6
+ Chronos-Bolt,67.14285714285715,27.11185183289192,0.0,0.1322703744317049,0.0,0.0
7
+ Toto-1.0,62.85714285714287,27.120126304305725,0.0,10.207355941916667,0.1,0.0
8
+ Sundial-Base,61.78571428571429,24.782966216672285,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0
9
+ TabPFN-TS,57.321428571428555,25.898630077241936,0.0,59.46589885165178,0.0,10.0
10
+ Stat. Ensemble,46.42857142857142,20.048347663551425,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,5.0
11
+ AutoARIMA,36.07142857142858,17.777947817676132,0.0,74.34524439111118,0.0,0.0
12
+ AutoETS,36.07142857142857,18.813705921644818,0.0,3.3284211108491193,0.0,0.0
13
+ AutoTheta,29.28571428571428,14.370876577265967,0.0,3.1050995276688527,0.0,0.0
14
+ Naive,14.64285714285714,-11.759514056529575,0.0,0.33027376482294407,0.0,0.0
15
+ Seasonal Naive,11.607142857142858,0.0,0.0,0.33344394039464936,0.0,0.0
16
+ Drift,5.714285714285714,-13.858459934925316,0.0,0.3192311944547016,0.0,0.0
tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
- Chronos-2,87.96992481203009,45.29856654701957,0.0,0.3596606613432836,0.0,0.0
3
- TiRex,84.21052631578948,40.94974112713733,0.0,0.12988266882352942,0.0,0.0
4
- TimesFM-2.5,82.70676691729322,41.0218970729747,0.0,0.597465887542373,0.10526315789473684,0.0
5
- Moirai-2.0,76.12781954887218,40.2743249336117,0.0,0.2502934766666667,0.3684210526315789,0.0
6
- Chronos-Bolt,70.48872180451129,38.60134142004602,0.0,0.15470306411764706,0.0,0.0
7
- Toto-1.0,66.9172932330827,38.52149108523811,0.0,10.389540521333334,0.10526315789473684,0.0
8
- TabPFN-TS,61.09022556390977,36.87959299867466,0.0,68.84249116642856,0.0,10.526315789473683
9
- Sundial-Base,48.87218045112782,31.47325724719957,0.0,8.139341805,0.0,0.0
10
- Stat. Ensemble,42.857142857142854,25.211002219656653,0.0,153.52471474263552,0.0,5.263157894736842
11
- AutoARIMA,41.35338345864661,25.867891976573688,0.0,74.68622603863636,0.0,0.0
12
- AutoETS,34.21052631578947,22.633753236008815,0.0,3.5267286662745096,0.0,0.0
13
- AutoTheta,24.81203007518797,16.081197853860395,0.0,3.1771899728377058,0.0,0.0
14
- Seasonal Naive,14.849624060150376,0.0,0.0,0.42818580019607844,0.0,0.0
15
- Naive,10.150375939849624,-42.95931711653955,0.0,0.4454413803921568,0.0,0.0
16
- Drift,3.3834586466165413,-44.21938587611316,0.0,0.4046081805882353,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
2
+ Chronos-2,88.21428571428571,44.77656337400558,0.0,0.34862936275497514,0.0,0.0
3
+ TiRex,84.28571428571429,40.60690863759879,0.0,0.12056570828620417,0.0,0.0
4
+ TimesFM-2.5,83.57142857142857,40.69540369974936,0.0,0.5763130827970966,0.1,0.0
5
+ Moirai-2.0,75.71428571428572,39.91164248768357,0.0,0.24129671231988042,0.4,0.0
6
+ Chronos-Bolt,70.35714285714286,38.313765874575154,0.0,0.1322703744317049,0.0,0.0
7
+ Toto-1.0,66.42857142857143,38.175979444656846,0.0,10.207355941916667,0.1,0.0
8
+ TabPFN-TS,61.96428571428571,36.67704253513349,0.0,59.46589885165178,0.0,10.0
9
+ Sundial-Base,48.57142857142856,31.246086693430332,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0
10
+ Stat. Ensemble,43.21428571428571,25.454460772291498,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,5.0
11
+ AutoARIMA,41.07142857142857,25.85193480620731,0.0,74.34524439111118,0.0,0.0
12
+ AutoETS,33.214285714285715,21.589312538875138,0.0,3.3284211108491193,0.0,0.0
13
+ AutoTheta,25.000000000000007,16.511025466699557,0.0,3.1050995276688527,0.0,0.0
14
+ Seasonal Naive,15.178571428571427,0.0,0.0,0.33344394039464936,0.0,0.0
15
+ Naive,10.0,-44.1490350185211,0.0,0.33027376482294407,0.0,0.0
16
+ Drift,3.214285714285714,-45.70449009907933,0.0,0.3192311944547016,0.0,0.0
tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.072,0.007,0.147
4
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.056,-0.005,0.12
5
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.072,0.01,0.139
6
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.087,0.033,0.147
7
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.099,0.033,0.164
8
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.125,0.051,0.21
9
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.136,0.054,0.222
10
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.172,0.11,0.231
11
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.183,0.115,0.243
12
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.144,0.287
13
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.22,0.152,0.291
14
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.256,0.413
15
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.306,0.486
16
- Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.32,0.486
17
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.078,-0.173,-0.007
18
- TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.018,-0.044,0.006
20
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.0,-0.027,0.023
21
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.016,-0.011,0.042
22
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.029,-0.008,0.059
23
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.057,0.005,0.134
24
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.069,-0.052,0.166
25
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.108,0.06,0.159
26
- TiRex,AutoETS,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.12,0.065,0.172
27
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.157,0.101,0.218
28
- TiRex,AutoTheta,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.159,0.097,0.234
29
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.214,0.359
30
- TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.277,0.423
31
- TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.358,0.293,0.421
32
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.059,-0.136,0.005
33
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.017,-0.006,0.043
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.579,0.368,0.763,0.017,-0.0,0.036
36
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.737,0.553,0.895,0.033,0.007,0.068
37
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.046,0.022,0.072
38
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.789,0.632,0.947,0.073,0.018,0.159
39
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.842,0.683,1.0,0.085,-0.037,0.187
40
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.123,0.078,0.172
41
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.135,0.089,0.186
42
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.171,0.115,0.237
43
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.174,0.109,0.256
44
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.218,0.383
45
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.281,0.44
46
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.3,0.435
47
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.078,-0.161,-0.01
48
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.0,-0.024,0.026
49
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.421,0.237,0.632,-0.018,-0.037,0.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
50
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.342,0.658,0.016,-0.006,0.045
52
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.579,0.368,0.763,0.029,0.005,0.055
53
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.057,-0.005,0.145
54
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.069,-0.056,0.175
55
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.107,0.065,0.155
56
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.12,0.076,0.169
57
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.157,0.097,0.223
58
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.159,0.099,0.238
59
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.205,0.369
60
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.271,0.428
61
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.358,0.289,0.424
62
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.095,-0.173,-0.034
63
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.016,-0.044,0.011
64
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.263,0.105,0.447,-0.034,-0.072,-0.007
65
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.342,0.658,-0.016,-0.048,0.006
66
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.632,0.421,0.816,0.014,-0.031,0.047
68
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.041,-0.003,0.106
69
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.054,-0.06,0.149
70
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.093,0.044,0.146
71
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.106,0.048,0.162
72
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.143,0.08,0.211
73
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.146,0.098,0.206
74
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.207,0.343
75
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.269,0.408
76
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.286,0.409
77
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.11,-0.197,-0.034
78
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.03,-0.063,0.008
79
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.048,-0.078,-0.022
80
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.421,0.237,0.632,-0.03,-0.058,-0.005
81
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.368,0.184,0.579,-0.014,-0.049,0.03
82
- Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.028,-0.046,0.13
84
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.04,-0.094,0.159
85
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.08,0.032,0.129
86
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.094,0.046,0.139
87
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.131,0.074,0.197
88
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.134,0.067,0.223
89
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.254,0.178,0.36
90
- Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.253,0.415
91
- Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.272,0.407
92
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.142,-0.265,-0.053
93
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.06,-0.154,-0.005
94
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.211,0.053,0.368,-0.079,-0.189,-0.018
95
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.06,-0.169,0.005
96
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.043,-0.118,0.003
97
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.029,-0.15,0.044
98
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.013,-0.099,0.085
100
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.054,-0.053,0.133
101
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.067,-0.05,0.153
102
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.106,-0.007,0.196
103
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.109,0.07,0.152
104
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.194,0.27
105
- Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.311,0.249,0.376
106
- Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.251,0.39
107
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.157,-0.286,-0.057
108
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.074,-0.199,0.049
109
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.158,0.0,0.317,-0.093,-0.229,0.036
110
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.074,-0.212,0.053
111
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.057,-0.175,0.056
112
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.042,-0.188,0.086
113
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.013,-0.092,0.09
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
114
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.605,0.395,0.816,0.042,-0.084,0.154
116
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.055,-0.083,0.173
117
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.095,-0.023,0.199
118
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.097,0.003,0.193
119
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.895,0.763,1.0,0.222,0.146,0.306
120
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.302,0.198,0.414
121
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.311,0.203,0.424
122
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.207,-0.3,-0.123
123
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.12,-0.189,-0.064
124
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.14,-0.208,-0.084
125
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.12,-0.183,-0.069
126
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.103,-0.17,-0.046
127
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.088,-0.148,-0.033
128
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.057,-0.154,0.051
129
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.395,0.184,0.605,-0.044,-0.182,0.077
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.014,-0.014,0.037
132
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.055,0.008,0.105
133
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.058,-0.003,0.147
134
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.868,0.711,1.0,0.188,0.097,0.3
135
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.272,0.174,0.369
136
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.281,0.19,0.364
137
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.225,-0.322,-0.13
138
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.137,-0.207,-0.069
139
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.157,-0.228,-0.098
140
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.136,-0.203,-0.082
141
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.118,-0.193,-0.05
142
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.103,-0.161,-0.048
143
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.072,-0.181,0.048
144
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.059,-0.209,0.077
145
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.014,-0.038,0.014
146
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.042,-0.012,0.096
148
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.045,-0.017,0.139
149
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.177,0.082,0.298
150
- AutoETS,Naive,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.261,0.162,0.365
151
- AutoETS,Drift,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.271,0.179,0.36
152
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.278,-0.403,-0.168
153
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.186,-0.278,-0.112
154
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.207,-0.31,-0.13
155
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.186,-0.288,-0.107
156
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.167,-0.268,-0.087
157
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.151,-0.245,-0.08
158
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.119,-0.243,0.007
159
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.104,-0.248,0.023
160
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.058,-0.117,-0.008
161
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.043,-0.107,0.012
162
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.003,-0.086,0.108
164
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.141,0.029,0.258
165
- AutoARIMA,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.229,0.118,0.341
166
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.239,0.135,0.338
167
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.282,-0.411,-0.18
168
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.19,-0.306,-0.108
169
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.211,-0.345,-0.122
170
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.19,-0.313,-0.109
171
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.171,-0.26,-0.108
172
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.155,-0.288,-0.072
173
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.122,-0.179,-0.075
174
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.108,-0.239,-0.003
175
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.062,-0.172,0.003
176
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.047,-0.161,0.017
177
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.003,-0.122,0.079
178
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.138,0.088,0.185
180
- AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.227,0.15,0.299
181
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.236,0.157,0.316
182
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.488,-0.703,-0.345
183
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.381,-0.561,-0.273
184
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.621,-0.279
185
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.381,-0.584,-0.259
186
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.359,-0.521,-0.261
187
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.34,-0.562,-0.216
188
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.37,-0.241
189
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.105,0.0,0.237,-0.286,-0.44,-0.171
190
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.132,0.0,0.289,-0.232,-0.429,-0.108
191
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.215,-0.424,-0.089
192
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.164,-0.348,-0.03
193
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.161,-0.227,-0.096
194
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.102,0.024,0.19
196
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.114,0.005,0.211
197
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.658,-0.945,-0.442
198
- Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.538,-0.734,-0.383
199
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.565,-0.784,-0.39
200
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.538,-0.748,-0.373
201
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.514,-0.689,-0.368
202
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.493,-0.708,-0.339
203
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.451,-0.601,-0.332
204
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.433,-0.706,-0.248
205
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.373,-0.584,-0.21
206
- Naive,AutoETS,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.353,-0.575,-0.193
207
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.297,-0.517,-0.133
208
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.293,-0.427,-0.177
209
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.114,-0.235,-0.025
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Naive,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.013,-0.028,0.042
212
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.679,-0.947,-0.471
213
- Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.558,-0.728,-0.414
214
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.585,-0.77,-0.428
215
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.558,-0.736,-0.407
216
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.533,-0.693,-0.4
217
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.512,-0.685,-0.374
218
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.47,-0.64,-0.335
219
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.451,-0.737,-0.255
220
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.391,-0.573,-0.235
221
- Drift,AutoETS,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.371,-0.562,-0.219
222
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.314,-0.511,-0.155
223
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.31,-0.461,-0.186
224
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.128,-0.267,-0.005
225
- Drift,Naive,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.013,-0.044,0.027
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.052,-0.004,0.116
4
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.068,0.007,0.144
5
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.069,0.013,0.135
6
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.083,0.034,0.145
7
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.052,0.194
8
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.096,0.031,0.163
9
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.13,0.052,0.21
10
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.164,0.11,0.226
11
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.179,0.118,0.24
12
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.211,0.141,0.283
13
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.149,0.284
14
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.255,0.4
15
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.313,0.486
16
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.33,0.491
17
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.055,-0.131,0.004
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
18
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.016,-0.004,0.041
20
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.017,0.001,0.034
21
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.032,0.008,0.064
22
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.07,0.017,0.151
23
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.9,0.046,0.022,0.07
24
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.082,-0.026,0.178
25
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.118,0.075,0.164
26
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.133,0.089,0.18
27
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.168,0.111,0.229
28
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.169,0.107,0.244
29
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.221,0.371
30
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.286,0.442
31
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.306,0.441
32
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.073,-0.169,-0.007
33
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.017,-0.043,0.004
34
+ TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.001,-0.025,0.024
36
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.016,-0.013,0.041
37
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.055,0.002,0.123
38
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.03,-0.002,0.059
39
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.066,-0.053,0.152
40
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.103,0.06,0.153
41
+ TiRex,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.119,0.07,0.168
42
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.154,0.1,0.217
43
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.155,0.096,0.223
44
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.274,0.214,0.351
45
+ TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.281,0.426
46
+ TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.299,0.427
47
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.074,-0.156,-0.014
48
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.018,-0.035,-0.001
49
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.001,-0.024,0.024
50
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.349,0.65,0.015,-0.006,0.043
52
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.054,-0.005,0.136
53
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.029,0.005,0.052
54
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,-0.05,0.167
55
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.103,0.064,0.146
56
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.118,0.076,0.163
57
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.153,0.096,0.221
58
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.155,0.096,0.23
59
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.208,0.361
60
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.351,0.275,0.427
61
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.292,0.425
62
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.09,-0.169,-0.035
63
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.033,-0.069,-0.008
64
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.016,-0.043,0.013
65
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.35,0.651,-0.015,-0.045,0.006
66
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.039,-0.003,0.099
68
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.014,-0.029,0.046
69
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.051,-0.061,0.137
70
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.089,0.044,0.137
71
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.105,0.049,0.158
72
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.14,0.077,0.205
73
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.142,0.093,0.197
74
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.207,0.334
75
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.274,0.412
76
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.351,0.289,0.414
77
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.135,-0.241,-0.055
78
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.075,-0.178,-0.018
79
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.058,-0.14,-0.002
80
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.057,-0.157,0.005
81
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.041,-0.11,0.003
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
82
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.026,-0.135,0.044
84
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.012,-0.089,0.08
85
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.052,-0.051,0.126
86
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.068,-0.047,0.15
87
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.0,0.193
88
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.107,0.069,0.148
89
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.197,0.268
90
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.315,0.253,0.381
91
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.263,0.394
92
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.106,-0.194,-0.032
93
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.425,-0.048,-0.075,-0.022
94
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.031,-0.062,0.002
95
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.03,-0.055,-0.005
96
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.014,-0.049,0.028
97
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.025,-0.046,0.119
98
+ Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.038,-0.089,0.144
100
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.076,0.034,0.121
101
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.092,0.049,0.133
102
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.128,0.071,0.19
103
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.129,0.067,0.212
104
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.179,0.345
105
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.257,0.414
106
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.279,0.409
107
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.149,-0.266,-0.055
108
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.089,-0.216,0.025
109
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.071,-0.18,0.05
110
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.07,-0.2,0.047
111
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.054,-0.158,0.058
112
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.013,-0.087,0.082
113
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.039,-0.169,0.082
114
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.04,-0.078,0.149
116
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.056,-0.066,0.169
117
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.094,-0.021,0.202
118
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.095,0.008,0.198
119
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.222,0.153,0.304
120
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.306,0.21,0.425
121
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.316,0.22,0.434
122
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.197,-0.291,-0.123
123
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.134,-0.197,-0.081
124
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.115,-0.18,-0.063
125
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.114,-0.171,-0.068
126
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.098,-0.159,-0.046
127
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.055,-0.144,0.048
128
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.082,-0.137,-0.036
129
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.041,-0.175,0.072
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.017,-0.009,0.042
132
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.056,0.005,0.104
133
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.058,0.002,0.143
134
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.19,0.101,0.291
135
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.277,0.183,0.374
136
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.288,0.199,0.374
137
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.218,-0.316,-0.133
138
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.154,-0.22,-0.098
139
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.135,-0.202,-0.075
140
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.134,-0.195,-0.083
141
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.117,-0.188,-0.052
142
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.073,-0.176,0.045
143
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.101,-0.154,-0.052
144
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.06,-0.203,0.062
145
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.017,-0.044,0.009
146
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.04,-0.015,0.097
148
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.041,-0.018,0.131
149
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.176,0.084,0.283
150
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.265,0.161,0.361
151
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.275,0.183,0.363
152
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.268,-0.395,-0.164
153
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.201,-0.297,-0.125
154
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.182,-0.278,-0.111
155
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.181,-0.283,-0.106
156
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.163,-0.258,-0.083
157
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.239,-0.0
158
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.146,-0.234,-0.076
159
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.103,-0.253,0.021
160
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.059,-0.115,-0.005
161
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.041,-0.107,0.015
162
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.002,-0.093,0.103
164
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.142,0.039,0.25
165
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.234,0.121,0.342
166
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.246,0.141,0.346
167
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.397,-0.175
168
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.204,-0.323,-0.12
169
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.184,-0.287,-0.106
170
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.183,-0.298,-0.106
171
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.165,-0.245,-0.102
172
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.119,-0.174,-0.074
173
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.149,-0.27,-0.071
174
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.105,-0.247,-0.008
175
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.061,-0.167,-0.002
176
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.043,-0.15,0.018
177
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.002,-0.115,0.085
178
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.14,0.092,0.186
180
+ AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.163,0.308
181
+ AutoTheta,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.244,0.171,0.325
182
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.478,-0.668,-0.342
183
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.4,-0.591,-0.283
184
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.377,-0.541,-0.272
185
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.376,-0.565,-0.263
186
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.355,-0.501,-0.261
187
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.366,-0.246
188
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.526,-0.217
189
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.286,-0.436,-0.18
190
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.235,-0.411,-0.113
191
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.214,-0.395,-0.092
192
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.166,-0.333,-0.04
193
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.163,-0.229,-0.101
194
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.108,0.029,0.194
196
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.121,0.027,0.218
197
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.656,-0.945,-0.455
198
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.569,-0.792,-0.4
199
+ Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.543,-0.743,-0.391
200
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.542,-0.746,-0.38
201
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.519,-0.699,-0.378
202
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.459,-0.615,-0.338
203
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.497,-0.706,-0.346
204
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.441,-0.74,-0.266
205
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.384,-0.597,-0.223
206
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.36,-0.565,-0.192
207
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.306,-0.52,-0.138
208
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.445,-0.195
209
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.121,-0.24,-0.03
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Naive,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.015,-0.023,0.042
212
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.681,-0.963,-0.492
213
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.79,-0.441
214
+ Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.745,-0.427
215
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.565,-0.739,-0.413
216
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.541,-0.708,-0.406
217
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.481,-0.65,-0.356
218
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.52,-0.691,-0.387
219
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.463,-0.768,-0.282
220
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.404,-0.599,-0.248
221
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.38,-0.569,-0.224
222
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.326,-0.529,-0.164
223
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.323,-0.481,-0.206
224
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.137,-0.279,-0.028
225
+ Drift,Naive,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.015,-0.043,0.023
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.074,0.01,0.148
4
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.067,0.006,0.136
5
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.081,0.018,0.15
6
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.091,0.033,0.156
7
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.104,0.032,0.176
8
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.143,0.057,0.23
9
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.192,0.124,0.268
10
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.23,0.16,0.297
11
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.249,0.171,0.325
12
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.248,0.17,0.309
13
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.218,0.381
14
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.407,0.333,0.491
15
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.585,0.5,0.668
16
- Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.587,0.504,0.666
17
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.08,-0.173,-0.011
18
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.579,0.368,0.789,-0.008,-0.028,0.011
20
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.007,-0.017,0.029
21
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.737,0.526,0.947,0.018,0.0,0.037
22
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.032,-0.003,0.06
23
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.075,-0.05,0.179
24
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.127,0.08,0.194
25
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.168,0.113,0.227
26
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.188,0.128,0.256
27
- TiRex,AutoETS,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.187,0.126,0.246
28
- TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.177,0.314
29
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.298,0.435
30
- TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.475,0.621
31
- TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.554,0.48,0.621
32
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.072,-0.157,-0.006
33
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.421,0.211,0.632,0.008,-0.011,0.027
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.015,-0.002,0.035
36
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.684,0.5,0.868,0.026,0.005,0.05
37
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.684,0.5,0.868,0.04,0.009,0.069
38
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.789,0.63,0.947,0.082,-0.043,0.187
39
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.134,0.086,0.205
40
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.174,0.119,0.235
41
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.195,0.132,0.266
42
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.194,0.136,0.253
43
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.249,0.174,0.328
44
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.298,0.444
45
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.555,0.475,0.627
46
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.557,0.482,0.629
47
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.088,-0.176,-0.018
48
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.007,-0.03,0.017
49
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.015,-0.036,0.002
50
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.447,0.263,0.632,0.011,-0.007,0.035
52
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.579,0.368,0.763,0.025,-0.003,0.052
53
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.068,-0.063,0.182
54
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.12,0.065,0.2
55
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.162,0.11,0.218
56
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.182,0.119,0.252
57
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.181,0.127,0.236
58
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.238,0.167,0.318
59
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.355,0.287,0.437
60
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.469,0.623
61
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.474,0.624
62
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.1,-0.185,-0.035
63
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.263,0.053,0.474,-0.018,-0.039,-0.0
64
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.316,0.132,0.5,-0.026,-0.052,-0.005
65
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.553,0.368,0.737,-0.011,-0.036,0.007
66
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.579,0.368,0.763,0.015,-0.03,0.048
68
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.058,-0.066,0.162
69
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.111,0.067,0.173
70
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.153,0.096,0.215
71
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.174,0.11,0.245
72
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.173,0.113,0.23
73
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.165,0.299
74
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.288,0.42
75
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.543,0.465,0.618
76
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.546,0.471,0.616
77
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.116,-0.214,-0.033
78
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.033,-0.064,0.003
79
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.316,0.132,0.5,-0.042,-0.074,-0.009
80
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.421,0.237,0.632,-0.026,-0.055,0.003
81
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.421,0.237,0.632,-0.015,-0.051,0.029
82
  Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.044,-0.096,0.167
84
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.737,0.526,0.947,0.098,0.026,0.193
85
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.14,0.08,0.202
86
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.161,0.093,0.234
87
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.16,0.105,0.214
88
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.218,0.14,0.307
89
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.338,0.261,0.432
90
- Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.536,0.454,0.613
91
- Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.461,0.612
92
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.168,-0.299,-0.06
93
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.081,-0.218,0.048
94
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.211,0.053,0.37,-0.089,-0.23,0.042
95
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.073,-0.223,0.059
96
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.062,-0.193,0.061
97
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.046,-0.2,0.088
98
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.056,-0.041,0.155
100
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.658,0.447,0.868,0.101,-0.015,0.208
101
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.737,0.526,0.947,0.123,-0.006,0.239
102
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.122,-0.022,0.233
103
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.182,0.063,0.292
104
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.868,1.0,0.308,0.216,0.405
105
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.515,0.405,0.627
106
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.518,0.404,0.623
107
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.237,-0.366,-0.141
108
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.145,-0.24,-0.087
109
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.154,-0.258,-0.094
110
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.137,-0.25,-0.07
111
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.125,-0.21,-0.072
112
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.263,0.053,0.474,-0.108,-0.239,-0.027
113
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.06,-0.184,0.039
114
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.047,-0.065,0.136
116
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.07,-0.041,0.169
117
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.069,-0.049,0.162
118
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.133,0.07,0.194
119
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.221,0.313
120
- Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.486,0.404,0.568
121
- Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.404,0.573
122
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.298,-0.422,-0.191
123
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.202,-0.294,-0.127
124
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.211,-0.308,-0.135
125
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.193,-0.278,-0.124
126
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.18,-0.274,-0.106
127
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.163,-0.253,-0.087
128
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.342,0.132,0.553,-0.112,-0.262,0.015
129
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.049,-0.158,0.061
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.025,-0.049,0.085
132
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.023,-0.039,0.065
133
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.091,-0.001,0.196
134
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.868,0.711,1.0,0.231,0.138,0.336
135
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.461,0.352,0.553
136
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.464,0.359,0.553
137
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.331,-0.481,-0.206
138
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.232,-0.344,-0.147
139
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.242,-0.362,-0.153
140
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.223,-0.337,-0.135
141
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.21,-0.324,-0.124
142
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.192,-0.305,-0.103
143
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.263,0.053,0.474,-0.14,-0.315,0.006
144
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.076,-0.204,0.04
145
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.025,-0.092,0.046
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.632,0.421,0.842,-0.001,-0.074,0.062
148
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.789,0.632,0.947,0.068,-0.03,0.176
149
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.211,0.097,0.325
150
- AutoARIMA,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.447,0.325,0.551
151
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.45,0.327,0.555
152
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.329,-0.448,-0.205
153
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.23,-0.326,-0.145
154
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.24,-0.339,-0.158
155
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.222,-0.309,-0.145
156
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.208,-0.299,-0.127
157
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.191,-0.272,-0.118
158
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.138,-0.304,0.021
159
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.074,-0.193,0.047
160
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.024,-0.069,0.038
161
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.368,0.158,0.579,0.001,-0.066,0.069
162
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.069,-0.004,0.176
164
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.212,0.11,0.325
165
- AutoETS,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.448,0.344,0.544
166
- AutoETS,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.451,0.347,0.542
167
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-0.616,-0.278
168
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.321,-0.458,-0.215
169
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.332,-0.488,-0.21
170
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.312,-0.466,-0.2
171
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.427,-0.197
172
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.279,-0.443,-0.163
173
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.222,-0.412,-0.068
174
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.154,-0.241,-0.075
175
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.1,-0.243,0.001
176
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.211,0.053,0.368,-0.073,-0.214,0.029
177
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.074,-0.214,0.004
178
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.154,0.098,0.207
180
- AutoTheta,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.407,0.313,0.494
181
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.41,0.309,0.502
182
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.687,-0.963,-0.498
183
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.769,-0.425
184
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.574,-0.798,-0.424
185
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.55,-0.777,-0.402
186
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.534,-0.724,-0.404
187
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.511,-0.762,-0.353
188
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.053,0.0,0.132,-0.445,-0.682,-0.275
189
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.364,-0.455,-0.283
190
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.132,0.0,0.289,-0.3,-0.507,-0.16
191
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.268,-0.481,-0.108
192
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.269,-0.482,-0.124
193
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.182,-0.261,-0.109
194
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.299,0.209,0.388
196
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.303,0.192,0.4
197
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.407,-2.016,-1.001
198
- Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.228,-1.642,-0.904
199
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.246,-1.684,-0.906
200
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.212,-1.653,-0.883
201
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.189,-1.615,-0.868
202
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.156,-1.584,-0.833
203
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.062,-1.682,-0.682
204
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.946,-1.314,-0.678
205
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.854,-1.238,-0.543
206
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.809,-1.226,-0.482
207
- Naive,AutoETS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.811,-1.194,-0.525
208
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.687,-0.977,-0.455
209
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.427,-0.633,-0.264
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Naive,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.005,-0.034,0.028
212
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.42,-1.996,-1.016
213
- Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.24,-1.64,-0.923
214
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.258,-1.696,-0.93
215
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.224,-1.66,-0.902
216
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.2,-1.602,-0.889
217
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.168,-1.576,-0.855
218
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.073,-1.653,-0.677
219
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.956,-1.342,-0.677
220
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.864,-1.237,-0.561
221
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.819,-1.247,-0.487
222
- Drift,AutoETS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.821,-1.184,-0.531
223
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.696,-1.008,-0.446
224
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.434,-0.667,-0.238
225
- Drift,Naive,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.005,-0.029,0.032
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.07,0.01,0.142
4
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.063,0.008,0.13
5
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.077,0.019,0.148
6
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.087,0.033,0.151
7
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.1,0.031,0.173
8
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.137,0.06,0.221
9
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.187,0.125,0.255
10
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.221,0.157,0.29
11
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.241,0.162,0.318
12
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.252,0.186,0.316
13
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.211,0.369
14
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.335,0.481
15
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.506,0.665
16
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.587,0.512,0.666
17
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.076,-0.166,-0.01
18
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.008,-0.026,0.008
20
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.007,-0.014,0.029
21
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.017,0.0,0.036
22
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.032,-0.002,0.06
23
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.072,-0.049,0.161
24
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.078,0.184
25
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.162,0.107,0.218
26
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.184,0.123,0.25
27
+ TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.195,0.141,0.254
28
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.173,0.305
29
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.297,0.424
30
+ TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.553,0.486,0.622
31
+ TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.49,0.623
32
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.067,-0.149,-0.008
33
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.008,-0.008,0.026
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.015,-0.002,0.034
36
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.025,0.005,0.046
37
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.525,0.875,0.04,0.01,0.068
38
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.079,-0.034,0.172
39
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.132,0.085,0.2
40
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.116,0.224
41
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.19,0.129,0.256
42
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.201,0.149,0.259
43
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.172,0.316
44
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.299,0.435
45
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.485,0.629
46
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.492,0.628
47
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.084,-0.174,-0.019
48
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.007,-0.03,0.014
49
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.015,-0.035,0.002
50
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.3,0.6,0.01,-0.007,0.033
52
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.025,-0.004,0.05
53
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,-0.055,0.163
54
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.118,0.065,0.194
55
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.155,0.105,0.208
56
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.117,0.248
57
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.141,0.245
58
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.231,0.163,0.305
59
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.286,0.426
60
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.549,0.477,0.622
61
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.553,0.483,0.624
62
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.095,-0.178,-0.034
63
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.018,-0.037,-0.0
64
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.026,-0.048,-0.005
65
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.4,0.7,-0.01,-0.034,0.007
66
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.015,-0.026,0.048
68
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.055,-0.061,0.144
69
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.067,0.168
70
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.147,0.093,0.203
71
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.169,0.107,0.24
72
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.181,0.126,0.24
73
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.223,0.164,0.288
74
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.288,0.41
75
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.545,0.475,0.615
76
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.481,0.617
77
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.112,-0.209,-0.032
78
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.033,-0.063,0.002
79
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.475,-0.041,-0.073,-0.01
80
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.026,-0.053,0.004
81
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.015,-0.05,0.026
82
  Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.041,-0.096,0.148
84
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.096,0.027,0.182
85
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.134,0.078,0.19
86
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.157,0.094,0.227
87
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.168,0.118,0.222
88
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.211,0.14,0.297
89
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.263,0.42
90
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.462,0.612
91
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.541,0.471,0.61
92
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.159,-0.283,-0.064
93
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.077,-0.192,0.047
94
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.086,-0.207,0.033
95
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.07,-0.195,0.052
96
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.059,-0.168,0.058
97
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.043,-0.173,0.087
98
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.057,-0.026,0.15
100
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.097,-0.01,0.203
101
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.121,0.004,0.235
102
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.133,0.012,0.244
103
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.178,0.076,0.291
104
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.875,1.0,0.307,0.228,0.4
105
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.518,0.42,0.627
106
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.422,0.63
107
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.229,-0.342,-0.143
108
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.226,-0.085
109
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.152,-0.249,-0.093
110
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.134,-0.241,-0.069
111
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.202,-0.071
112
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.106,-0.223,-0.027
113
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.061,-0.176,0.025
114
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.042,-0.066,0.128
116
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.068,-0.04,0.165
117
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.08,-0.033,0.174
118
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.128,0.071,0.189
119
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.265,0.223,0.311
120
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.412,0.568
121
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.493,0.412,0.573
122
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.283,-0.408,-0.187
123
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.193,-0.279,-0.12
124
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.288,-0.131
125
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.184,-0.263,-0.118
126
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.172,-0.255,-0.103
127
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.235,-0.085
128
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.107,-0.254,0.01
129
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.044,-0.147,0.061
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.027,-0.044,0.088
132
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.04,-0.021,0.097
133
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.089,0.007,0.184
134
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.233,0.144,0.329
135
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.466,0.366,0.559
136
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.47,0.376,0.559
137
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.318,-0.467,-0.193
138
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.225,-0.334,-0.14
139
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.235,-0.345,-0.148
140
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.216,-0.33,-0.132
141
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.204,-0.315,-0.12
142
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.186,-0.294,-0.104
143
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.137,-0.308,-0.004
144
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.072,-0.198,0.038
145
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.027,-0.096,0.042
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.014,-0.063,0.085
148
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.065,-0.037,0.17
149
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.212,0.108,0.317
150
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.452,0.342,0.553
151
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.456,0.348,0.554
152
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.337,-0.463,-0.228
153
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.242,-0.34,-0.164
154
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.252,-0.349,-0.175
155
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.233,-0.324,-0.164
156
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.221,-0.316,-0.144
157
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.202,-0.285,-0.134
158
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.153,-0.323,-0.012
159
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.087,-0.211,0.032
160
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.042,-0.108,0.02
161
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.014,-0.093,0.059
162
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.052,-0.031,0.15
164
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.201,0.099,0.306
165
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.444,0.337,0.542
166
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.448,0.35,0.54
167
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.409,-0.586,-0.267
168
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.31,-0.439,-0.209
169
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.462,-0.208
170
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.3,-0.438,-0.195
171
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.287,-0.404,-0.196
172
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.268,-0.423,-0.162
173
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.216,-0.41,-0.082
174
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.147,-0.233,-0.076
175
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.098,-0.226,-0.007
176
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.069,-0.205,0.036
177
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.054,-0.177,0.03
178
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.158,0.102,0.209
180
+ AutoTheta,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.414,0.325,0.495
181
+ AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.418,0.325,0.505
182
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.673,-0.927,-0.503
183
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.736,-0.422
184
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.568,-0.771,-0.426
185
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.544,-0.741,-0.401
186
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.528,-0.695,-0.404
187
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.723,-0.357
188
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.125,-0.444,-0.667,-0.295
189
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.361,-0.451,-0.287
190
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.304,-0.49,-0.169
191
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.269,-0.465,-0.121
192
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.252,-0.441,-0.11
193
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.187,-0.263,-0.114
194
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.304,0.226,0.392
196
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.309,0.214,0.403
197
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.405,-1.983,-1.026
198
+ Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.235,-1.643,-0.944
199
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.253,-1.698,-0.943
200
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.219,-1.644,-0.913
201
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.196,-1.597,-0.904
202
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.163,-1.579,-0.858
203
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.074,-1.683,-0.724
204
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.956,-1.314,-0.7
205
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.874,-1.265,-0.578
206
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.824,-1.239,-0.519
207
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.799,-1.184,-0.509
208
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.706,-0.979,-0.481
209
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.437,-0.644,-0.292
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.007,-0.028,0.029
212
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.422,-1.991,-1.048
213
+ Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.252,-1.652,-0.959
214
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.269,-1.689,-0.969
215
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.235,-1.657,-0.934
216
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.212,-1.613,-0.926
217
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.179,-1.566,-0.889
218
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.09,-1.705,-0.731
219
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.971,-1.341,-0.7
220
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.888,-1.266,-0.602
221
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.837,-1.24,-0.533
222
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.812,-1.174,-0.538
223
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.719,-1.02,-0.482
224
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.448,-0.674,-0.272
225
+ Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.007,-0.03,0.027
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.067,0.005,0.132
4
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.07,0.004,0.141
5
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.079,0.014,0.148
6
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.109,0.047,0.173
7
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.108,0.036,0.177
8
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.138,0.057,0.235
9
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.124,0.046,0.212
10
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.131,0.249
11
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.201,0.13,0.262
12
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.211,0.143,0.273
13
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.165,0.328
14
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.321,0.51
15
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.273,0.442
16
- Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.338,0.509
17
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.071,-0.153,-0.005
18
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.421,0.211,0.632,0.004,-0.016,0.022
20
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.632,0.421,0.816,0.013,-0.006,0.032
21
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.842,0.684,0.974,0.045,0.014,0.088
22
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.684,0.474,0.868,0.044,0.01,0.077
23
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.077,0.013,0.174
24
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.062,-0.059,0.177
25
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.133,0.089,0.182
26
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.144,0.092,0.197
27
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.155,0.11,0.206
28
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.191,0.119,0.278
29
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.291,0.455
30
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.305,0.231,0.402
31
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.313,0.455
32
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.076,-0.165,-0.004
33
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.579,0.368,0.789,-0.004,-0.023,0.015
34
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.009,-0.01,0.028
36
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.041,0.005,0.094
37
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.04,0.016,0.064
38
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.073,-0.001,0.18
39
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.842,0.058,-0.073,0.184
40
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.13,0.085,0.179
41
- TiRex,AutoETS,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.14,0.093,0.19
42
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.152,0.107,0.2
43
- TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.188,0.115,0.283
44
- TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.29,0.457
45
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.22,0.403
46
- TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.307,0.453
47
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.085,-0.174,-0.014
48
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.368,0.184,0.579,-0.013,-0.033,0.006
49
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.009,-0.029,0.01
50
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.342,0.658,0.033,0.001,0.072
52
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.526,0.316,0.711,0.032,0.001,0.061
53
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.065,-0.006,0.163
54
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.842,0.05,-0.075,0.166
55
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.122,0.081,0.165
56
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.132,0.086,0.177
57
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.144,0.099,0.195
58
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.181,0.109,0.266
59
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.366,0.286,0.445
60
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.223,0.391
61
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.306,0.443
62
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.122,-0.21,-0.05
63
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.158,0.026,0.316,-0.047,-0.097,-0.014
64
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.043,-0.104,-0.005
65
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.342,0.658,-0.034,-0.078,-0.001
66
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.579,0.368,0.763,-0.001,-0.064,0.044
68
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.033,-0.019,0.1
69
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.842,0.017,-0.105,0.11
70
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.092,0.046,0.142
71
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.103,0.04,0.162
72
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.115,0.055,0.171
73
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.153,0.099,0.216
74
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.345,0.272,0.416
75
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.212,0.346
76
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.356,0.29,0.418
77
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.121,-0.215,-0.037
78
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.316,0.132,0.526,-0.046,-0.084,-0.01
79
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.042,-0.068,-0.016
80
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.474,0.289,0.684,-0.033,-0.065,-0.001
81
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.421,0.237,0.632,0.001,-0.046,0.06
82
  Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.034,-0.053,0.153
84
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.579,0.367,0.789,0.019,-0.118,0.157
85
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.093,0.04,0.146
86
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.104,0.052,0.155
87
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.116,0.072,0.161
88
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.154,0.072,0.252
89
- Toto-1.0,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.346,0.262,0.435
90
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.187,0.379
91
- Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.356,0.283,0.43
92
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.16,-0.307,-0.061
93
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.083,-0.21,-0.013
94
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.079,-0.22,0.001
95
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.069,-0.195,0.006
96
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.034,-0.111,0.019
97
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.035,-0.18,0.051
98
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.016,-0.129,0.054
100
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.061,-0.048,0.14
101
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.072,-0.059,0.161
102
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.085,-0.045,0.174
103
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.124,0.079,0.172
104
- Sundial-Base,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.323,0.248,0.392
105
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.248,0.199,0.293
106
- Sundial-Base,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.334,0.259,0.406
107
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.142,-0.268,-0.048
108
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.066,-0.215,0.056
109
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.316,0.158,0.526,-0.062,-0.226,0.068
110
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.316,0.158,0.526,-0.052,-0.199,0.07
111
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.316,0.158,0.526,-0.018,-0.124,0.095
112
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.421,0.211,0.633,-0.019,-0.186,0.106
113
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.016,-0.057,0.115
114
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.658,0.447,0.843,0.076,-0.049,0.181
116
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.087,-0.056,0.201
117
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.099,-0.039,0.205
118
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.138,0.05,0.23
119
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.333,0.219,0.445
120
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.895,0.763,1.0,0.26,0.173,0.343
121
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.344,0.231,0.452
122
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.236,-0.332,-0.15
123
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.154,-0.222,-0.098
124
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.149,-0.217,-0.093
125
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.139,-0.197,-0.089
126
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.101,-0.166,-0.048
127
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.103,-0.171,-0.041
128
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.065,-0.163,0.046
129
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.342,0.157,0.553,-0.082,-0.221,0.046
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.012,-0.024,0.038
132
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.526,0.314,0.737,0.025,-0.017,0.065
133
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.842,0.632,1.0,0.067,0.007,0.152
134
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.278,0.183,0.37
135
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.921,0.789,1.0,0.199,0.118,0.297
136
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.201,0.371
137
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.251,-0.355,-0.149
138
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.168,-0.246,-0.101
139
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.163,-0.235,-0.102
140
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.153,-0.216,-0.094
141
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.115,-0.194,-0.041
142
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.116,-0.183,-0.055
143
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.078,-0.192,0.056
144
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.095,-0.252,0.053
145
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.012,-0.039,0.023
146
- AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.013,-0.025,0.052
148
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.056,-0.004,0.152
149
- AutoETS,Naive,0.737,0.526,0.947,0.27,0.167,0.372
150
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.189,0.098,0.306
151
- AutoETS,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.282,0.19,0.371
152
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.268,-0.376,-0.167
153
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.183,-0.26,-0.124
154
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.179,-0.25,-0.12
155
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.168,-0.243,-0.11
156
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.13,-0.206,-0.059
157
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.131,-0.192,-0.078
158
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.093,-0.21,0.043
159
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.11,-0.257,0.038
160
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.474,0.263,0.686,-0.026,-0.069,0.017
161
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.014,-0.054,0.024
162
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.043,-0.037,0.148
164
- AutoARIMA,Naive,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.26,0.157,0.366
165
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.178,0.082,0.292
166
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.272,0.175,0.365
167
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.489,-0.198
168
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.236,-0.384,-0.135
169
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.231,-0.394,-0.13
170
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.221,-0.362,-0.123
171
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.18,-0.275,-0.11
172
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.182,-0.337,-0.077
173
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.142,-0.207,-0.086
174
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.16,-0.298,-0.052
175
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.158,0.0,0.368,-0.072,-0.179,-0.007
176
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.059,-0.179,0.004
177
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.045,-0.174,0.036
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
178
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- AutoTheta,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.227,0.146,0.302
180
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.141,0.09,0.189
181
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.239,0.159,0.32
182
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.713,-1.041,-0.473
183
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.836,-0.41
184
- Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.592,-0.84,-0.408
185
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.578,-0.802,-0.4
186
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.526,-0.712,-0.373
187
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.528,-0.769,-0.355
188
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.476,-0.645,-0.33
189
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.5,-0.801,-0.281
190
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.386,-0.586,-0.224
191
- Naive,AutoETS,0.263,0.053,0.474,-0.369,-0.593,-0.2
192
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.351,-0.578,-0.187
193
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.293,-0.432,-0.171
194
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.11,-0.231,-0.02
196
- Naive,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.017,-0.017,0.044
197
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.543,-0.792,-0.376
198
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.44,-0.671,-0.3
199
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.434,-0.676,-0.282
200
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.643,-0.287
201
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.375,-0.528,-0.27
202
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.376,-0.611,-0.23
203
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.33,-0.414,-0.249
204
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.105,0.0,0.237,-0.351,-0.523,-0.209
205
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.079,0.0,0.211,-0.248,-0.423,-0.133
206
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.233,-0.442,-0.109
207
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.217,-0.413,-0.089
208
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.165,-0.233,-0.099
209
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.099,0.02,0.187
210
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.114,0.016,0.209
212
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.741,-1.036,-0.512
213
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.625,-0.835,-0.455
214
- Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.619,-0.828,-0.442
215
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.605,-0.797,-0.441
216
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.552,-0.718,-0.409
217
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.554,-0.753,-0.395
218
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.501,-0.683,-0.349
219
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.525,-0.824,-0.3
220
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.409,-0.591,-0.251
221
- Drift,AutoETS,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.392,-0.59,-0.235
222
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.373,-0.575,-0.212
223
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.315,-0.47,-0.188
224
- Drift,Naive,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.017,-0.046,0.017
225
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.129,-0.265,-0.016
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.063,0.007,0.129
4
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.067,0.006,0.137
5
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.076,0.014,0.145
6
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.046,0.168
7
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.104,0.036,0.178
8
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.132,0.057,0.22
9
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.044,0.198
10
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.184,0.128,0.244
11
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.206,0.143,0.273
12
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.196,0.13,0.264
13
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.238,0.164,0.318
14
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.323,0.51
15
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.269,0.434
16
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.345,0.517
17
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.067,-0.148,-0.007
18
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.004,-0.014,0.022
20
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.475,0.85,0.013,-0.004,0.03
21
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.044,0.014,0.084
22
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.525,0.875,0.044,0.01,0.076
23
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.074,0.012,0.161
24
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.06,-0.063,0.159
25
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.129,0.084,0.171
26
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.153,0.107,0.202
27
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.142,0.094,0.191
28
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.186,0.118,0.269
29
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.298,0.459
30
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.233,0.39
31
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.318,0.46
32
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.072,-0.159,-0.006
33
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.023,0.014
34
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.009,-0.01,0.028
36
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.04,0.005,0.087
37
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.04,0.016,0.061
38
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.07,-0.003,0.166
39
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.056,-0.077,0.163
40
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.083,0.169
41
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.149,0.106,0.2
42
+ TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.138,0.094,0.184
43
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.183,0.115,0.269
44
+ TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.294,0.463
45
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.223,0.394
46
+ TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.316,0.461
47
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.082,-0.17,-0.014
48
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.525,-0.013,-0.031,0.004
49
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.009,-0.029,0.009
50
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.349,0.65,0.031,0.001,0.07
52
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.031,0.002,0.058
53
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.061,-0.007,0.152
54
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.047,-0.079,0.15
55
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.117,0.078,0.155
56
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.141,0.095,0.192
57
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.13,0.086,0.174
58
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.108,0.255
59
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.29,0.45
60
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.225,0.379
61
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.313,0.45
62
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.202,-0.048
63
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.046,-0.091,-0.014
64
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.042,-0.096,-0.005
65
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.35,0.651,-0.032,-0.075,-0.001
66
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.0,-0.059,0.043
68
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.031,-0.019,0.097
69
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.016,-0.095,0.097
70
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.088,0.045,0.134
71
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.114,0.054,0.17
72
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.102,0.041,0.159
73
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.149,0.096,0.209
74
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.277,0.422
75
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.212,0.338
76
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.294,0.429
77
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.117,-0.217,-0.037
78
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.475,-0.046,-0.082,-0.01
79
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.042,-0.065,-0.017
80
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.032,-0.062,-0.002
81
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.0,-0.045,0.056
82
  Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.031,-0.054,0.141
84
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.016,-0.127,0.134
85
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.088,0.039,0.137
86
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.114,0.07,0.156
87
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.102,0.052,0.148
88
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.149,0.074,0.246
89
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.348,0.267,0.434
90
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.19,0.369
91
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.29,0.434
92
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.153,-0.283,-0.06
93
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.08,-0.192,-0.012
94
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.075,-0.2,0.003
95
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.065,-0.179,0.007
96
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.032,-0.107,0.019
97
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.032,-0.165,0.051
98
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.015,-0.117,0.048
100
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.059,-0.045,0.137
101
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.085,-0.04,0.18
102
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.074,-0.047,0.162
103
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.122,0.079,0.166
104
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.327,0.258,0.4
105
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.248,0.204,0.292
106
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.339,0.265,0.414
107
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.135,-0.246,-0.046
108
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.064,-0.189,0.059
109
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.059,-0.195,0.071
110
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.05,-0.177,0.073
111
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.017,-0.107,0.087
112
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.017,-0.155,0.113
113
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.015,-0.051,0.104
114
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.073,-0.034,0.175
116
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.099,-0.022,0.213
117
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.087,-0.038,0.2
118
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.135,0.057,0.227
119
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.337,0.236,0.452
120
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.259,0.182,0.338
121
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.349,0.251,0.462
122
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.225,-0.323,-0.147
123
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.148,-0.206,-0.092
124
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.203,-0.091
125
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.132,-0.183,-0.084
126
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.097,-0.155,-0.047
127
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.097,-0.159,-0.041
128
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.063,-0.159,0.043
129
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.079,-0.212,0.033
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.028,-0.014,0.066
132
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.015,-0.018,0.043
133
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.066,0.009,0.147
134
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.285,0.196,0.376
135
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.2,0.121,0.291
136
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.212,0.383
137
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.26,-0.375,-0.167
138
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.18,-0.254,-0.12
139
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.175,-0.25,-0.118
140
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.165,-0.237,-0.105
141
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.205,-0.057
142
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.128,-0.185,-0.075
143
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.093,-0.22,0.039
144
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.11,-0.27,0.021
145
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.028,-0.071,0.013
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.013,-0.053,0.024
148
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.04,-0.042,0.142
149
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.264,0.165,0.37
150
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.178,0.083,0.287
151
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.278,0.186,0.37
152
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.244,-0.358,-0.15
153
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.165,-0.235,-0.104
154
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.161,-0.225,-0.103
155
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.15,-0.211,-0.094
156
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.114,-0.189,-0.043
157
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.114,-0.174,-0.055
158
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.079,-0.193,0.045
159
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.096,-0.251,0.037
160
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.015,-0.045,0.018
161
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.013,-0.025,0.05
162
+ AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.052,-0.008,0.143
164
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.274,0.174,0.368
165
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.188,0.099,0.292
166
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.287,0.195,0.372
167
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.312,-0.466,-0.197
168
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.229,-0.369,-0.134
169
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.224,-0.367,-0.13
170
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.213,-0.343,-0.121
171
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.175,-0.264,-0.106
172
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.175,-0.326,-0.08
173
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.138,-0.199,-0.086
174
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.156,-0.293,-0.061
175
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.071,-0.173,-0.009
176
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.041,-0.165,0.04
177
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.055,-0.167,0.008
178
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoTheta,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.234,0.157,0.314
180
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.144,0.096,0.191
181
+ AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.248,0.171,0.331
182
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.712,-1.04,-0.477
183
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.604,-0.849,-0.424
184
+ Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.862,-0.417
185
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.819,-0.408
186
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.533,-0.729,-0.384
187
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.533,-0.766,-0.365
188
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.486,-0.666,-0.348
189
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.508,-0.823,-0.31
190
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.398,-0.602,-0.244
191
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.359,-0.588,-0.197
192
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.377,-0.582,-0.21
193
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.305,-0.458,-0.186
194
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.118,-0.238,-0.028
196
+ Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.018,-0.013,0.042
197
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.532,-0.768,-0.369
198
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.435,-0.641,-0.304
199
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.649,-0.287
200
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.61,-0.29
201
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.51,-0.269
202
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.584,-0.234
203
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.329,-0.412,-0.256
204
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.35,-0.512,-0.223
205
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.251,-0.411,-0.138
206
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.216,-0.403,-0.091
207
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.232,-0.412,-0.11
208
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.168,-0.236,-0.106
209
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.105,0.027,0.192
210
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.122,0.03,0.215
212
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.069,-0.526
213
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.634,-0.85,-0.466
214
+ Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.628,-0.854,-0.461
215
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.613,-0.817,-0.455
216
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.751,-0.416
217
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.767,-0.408
218
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.514,-0.706,-0.361
219
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.537,-0.859,-0.335
220
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.424,-0.62,-0.27
221
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.385,-0.587,-0.229
222
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.402,-0.593,-0.242
223
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.33,-0.495,-0.206
224
+ Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.019,-0.044,0.013
225
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.139,-0.274,-0.031
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,226 +1,226 @@
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
- Chronos-2,TiRex,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.074,0.005,0.148
4
- Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.073,0.009,0.144
5
- Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.084,0.015,0.158
6
- Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.109,0.046,0.179
7
- Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.11,0.032,0.187
8
- Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.133,0.052,0.213
9
- Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.202,0.13,0.286
10
- Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.2,0.334
11
- Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.187,0.333
12
- Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.203,0.366
13
- Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.259,0.434
14
- Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.453,0.377,0.537
15
- Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.538,0.693
16
- Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.621,0.544,0.696
17
- TiRex,Chronos-2,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.08,-0.173,-0.005
18
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
- TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.579,0.368,0.789,-0.001,-0.021,0.021
20
- TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.011,-0.005,0.028
21
- TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.737,0.526,0.947,0.038,0.008,0.078
22
- TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.039,0.014,0.063
23
- TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.064,-0.066,0.182
24
- TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.138,0.072,0.231
25
- TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.21,0.146,0.272
26
- TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.203,0.14,0.268
27
- TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.166,0.307
28
- TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.211,0.383
29
- TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.328,0.493
30
- TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.587,0.513,0.653
31
- TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.591,0.52,0.655
32
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.078,-0.168,-0.009
33
- TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.421,0.211,0.632,0.001,-0.021,0.021
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
- TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.632,0.447,0.816,0.013,-0.006,0.031
36
- TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.842,0.684,0.974,0.039,0.014,0.071
37
- TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.041,0.001,0.076
38
- TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.066,-0.055,0.171
39
- TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.139,0.084,0.222
40
- TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.211,0.149,0.27
41
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.204,0.14,0.271
42
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.238,0.162,0.307
43
- TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.217,0.38
44
- TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.41,0.335,0.486
45
- TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.587,0.517,0.654
46
- TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.591,0.52,0.656
47
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.092,-0.187,-0.015
48
- Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.011,-0.029,0.005
49
- Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.368,0.184,0.553,-0.013,-0.032,0.006
50
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
- Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.553,0.394,0.711,0.027,0.0,0.061
52
- Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.526,0.316,0.711,0.029,-0.004,0.059
53
- Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.842,0.054,-0.077,0.168
54
- Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.128,0.065,0.219
55
- Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.14,0.264
56
- Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.194,0.13,0.269
57
- Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.158,0.3
58
- Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.202,0.37
59
- Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.325,0.485
60
- Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.508,0.649
61
- Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.586,0.514,0.651
62
- Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.122,-0.219,-0.048
63
- Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.263,0.053,0.474,-0.04,-0.085,-0.008
64
- Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.158,0.026,0.316,-0.041,-0.076,-0.014
65
- Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.447,0.289,0.606,-0.028,-0.064,-0.0
66
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
- Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.579,0.368,0.763,0.001,-0.059,0.046
68
- Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.842,0.027,-0.097,0.128
69
- Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.104,0.052,0.174
70
- Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.179,0.119,0.24
71
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.172,0.106,0.239
72
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.206,0.128,0.276
73
- Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.268,0.196,0.342
74
- Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.32,0.454
75
- Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.571,0.5,0.636
76
- Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.574,0.505,0.64
77
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.124,-0.23,-0.033
78
- Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.041,-0.068,-0.014
79
- Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.042,-0.082,-0.001
80
- Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.474,0.289,0.684,-0.029,-0.062,0.004
81
- Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.421,0.237,0.632,-0.001,-0.048,0.056
82
  Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
- Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.579,0.367,0.789,0.026,-0.122,0.16
84
- Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.103,0.018,0.216
85
- Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.178,0.101,0.249
86
- Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.171,0.101,0.243
87
- Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.205,0.128,0.286
88
- Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.172,0.366
89
- Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.293,0.479
90
- Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.57,0.489,0.643
91
- Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.574,0.499,0.642
92
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.154,-0.271,-0.055
93
- TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.069,-0.222,0.062
94
- TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.07,-0.206,0.052
95
- TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.316,0.158,0.526,-0.057,-0.202,0.071
96
- TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.316,0.158,0.526,-0.028,-0.146,0.089
97
- TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.421,0.211,0.633,-0.027,-0.191,0.109
98
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
- TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.684,0.421,0.895,0.079,-0.007,0.177
100
- TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.711,0.5,0.895,0.156,0.039,0.259
101
- TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.149,0.012,0.263
102
- TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.184,0.036,0.298
103
- TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.248,0.125,0.358
104
- TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.868,1.0,0.369,0.265,0.467
105
- TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.558,0.454,0.664
106
- TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.455,0.669
107
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.253,-0.4,-0.15
108
- Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.16,-0.301,-0.077
109
- Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.162,-0.286,-0.092
110
- Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.147,-0.281,-0.069
111
- Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.116,-0.21,-0.055
112
- Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.115,-0.276,-0.018
113
- Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.316,0.105,0.579,-0.086,-0.215,0.007
114
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
- Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.084,-0.037,0.171
116
- Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.684,0.474,0.842,0.076,-0.059,0.179
117
- Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.114,-0.027,0.219
118
- Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.183,0.104,0.253
119
- Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.315,0.257,0.371
120
- Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.438,0.6
121
- Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.525,0.437,0.607
122
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.367,-0.501,-0.249
123
- Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.267,-0.373,-0.171
124
- Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.268,-0.37,-0.175
125
- Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.252,-0.359,-0.163
126
- Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.218,-0.315,-0.135
127
- Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.217,-0.332,-0.113
128
- Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.289,0.105,0.5,-0.185,-0.35,-0.04
129
- Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.091,-0.207,0.036
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.009,-0.065,0.035
132
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.033,-0.028,0.076
133
- Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.109,0.025,0.204
134
- Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.921,0.789,1.0,0.252,0.166,0.346
135
- Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.477,0.38,0.565
136
- Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.481,0.386,0.57
137
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.355,-0.499,-0.23
138
- AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.255,-0.366,-0.162
139
- AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.257,-0.371,-0.163
140
- AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.241,-0.367,-0.149
141
- AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.207,-0.314,-0.118
142
- AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.206,-0.322,-0.112
143
- AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.174,-0.357,-0.012
144
- AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.316,0.158,0.526,-0.082,-0.219,0.056
145
- AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.009,-0.036,0.061
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
- AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.042,-0.003,0.09
148
- AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.117,0.032,0.221
149
- AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.259,0.162,0.361
150
- AutoARIMA,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.481,0.375,0.575
151
- AutoARIMA,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.486,0.38,0.577
152
- AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.414,-0.578,-0.254
153
- AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.31,-0.444,-0.199
154
- AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.312,-0.444,-0.194
155
- AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.295,-0.429,-0.187
156
- AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.26,-0.382,-0.146
157
- AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.258,-0.4,-0.146
158
- AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.226,-0.425,-0.038
159
- AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.129,-0.281,0.026
160
- AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.034,-0.082,0.027
161
- AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.044,-0.099,0.003
162
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
- AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.078,0.003,0.188
164
- AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.226,0.132,0.336
165
- AutoETS,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.459,0.353,0.555
166
- AutoETS,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.464,0.358,0.555
167
- AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.534,-0.765,-0.349
168
- AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.621,-0.268
169
- AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.423,-0.613,-0.276
170
- AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.587,-0.253
171
- AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.367,-0.519,-0.244
172
- AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.365,-0.577,-0.208
173
- AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.33,-0.558,-0.142
174
- AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.225,-0.339,-0.116
175
- AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.122,-0.256,-0.026
176
- AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.132,-0.284,-0.033
177
- AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.085,-0.231,-0.003
178
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
- AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.161,0.106,0.214
180
- AutoTheta,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.413,0.317,0.501
181
- AutoTheta,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.418,0.319,0.509
182
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.828,-1.159,-0.604
183
- Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.693,-0.972,-0.489
184
- Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.696,-0.944,-0.503
185
- Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.674,-0.941,-0.481
186
- Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.629,-0.831,-0.47
187
- Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.627,-0.919,-0.415
188
- Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.053,0.0,0.132,-0.584,-0.876,-0.361
189
- Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.459,-0.589,-0.345
190
- Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.079,0.0,0.211,-0.337,-0.529,-0.199
191
- Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.349,-0.564,-0.193
192
- Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.293,-0.506,-0.152
193
- Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.192,-0.272,-0.118
194
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
- Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.789,0.63,0.947,0.301,0.205,0.392
196
- Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.307,0.196,0.403
197
- Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.613,-2.255,-1.167
198
- Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.421,-1.884,-1.054
199
- Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.424,-1.888,-1.073
200
- Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.394,-1.849,-1.034
201
- Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.328,-1.749,-0.999
202
- Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.325,-1.801,-0.956
203
- Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.265,-1.98,-0.83
204
- Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.086,-1.497,-0.78
205
- Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.912,-1.298,-0.614
206
- Naive,AutoARIMA,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.928,-1.352,-0.6
207
- Naive,AutoETS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.848,-1.246,-0.546
208
- Naive,AutoTheta,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.704,-1.003,-0.464
209
- Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.211,0.053,0.37,-0.43,-0.645,-0.258
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
- Naive,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.009,-0.025,0.029
212
- Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.636,-2.289,-1.195
213
- Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.442,-1.896,-1.082
214
- Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.445,-1.904,-1.084
215
- Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.415,-1.862,-1.056
216
- Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.349,-1.775,-1.019
217
- Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.346,-1.791,-0.994
218
- Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.285,-2.02,-0.835
219
- Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.105,-1.547,-0.776
220
- Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.928,-1.323,-0.628
221
- Drift,AutoARIMA,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.945,-1.366,-0.613
222
- Drift,AutoETS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.864,-1.249,-0.558
223
- Drift,AutoTheta,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.719,-1.035,-0.468
224
- Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.442,-0.675,-0.244
225
- Drift,Naive,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.009,-0.03,0.024
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
1
  model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
2
  Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
3
+ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.07,0.006,0.143
4
+ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.069,0.01,0.138
5
+ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.081,0.017,0.152
6
+ Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.105,0.042,0.17
7
+ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.107,0.033,0.185
8
+ Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.128,0.05,0.205
9
+ Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.197,0.129,0.273
10
+ Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.195,0.329
11
+ Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.179,0.328
12
+ Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.221,0.369
13
+ Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.252,0.418
14
+ Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.448,0.371,0.518
15
+ Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.542,0.686
16
+ Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.621,0.548,0.689
17
+ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.076,-0.167,-0.006
18
  TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
19
+ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.001,-0.021,0.019
20
+ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.012,-0.005,0.029
21
+ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.037,0.007,0.075
22
+ TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.039,0.014,0.062
23
+ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.062,-0.073,0.164
24
+ TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.136,0.071,0.22
25
+ TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.203,0.144,0.264
26
+ TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.139,0.261
27
+ TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.178,0.307
28
+ TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.209,0.369
29
+ TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.332,0.479
30
+ TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.588,0.514,0.651
31
+ TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.522,0.653
32
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.074,-0.161,-0.01
33
+ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.001,-0.019,0.021
34
  TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
35
+ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.475,0.85,0.013,-0.004,0.03
36
+ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.039,0.014,0.065
37
+ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.9,0.041,0.002,0.076
38
+ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.063,-0.06,0.158
39
+ TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.137,0.084,0.213
40
+ TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.204,0.146,0.262
41
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.2,0.139,0.261
42
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.244,0.177,0.311
43
+ TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.21,0.366
44
+ TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.407,0.34,0.474
45
+ TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.589,0.518,0.65
46
+ TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.593,0.524,0.653
47
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.088,-0.179,-0.017
48
+ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.012,-0.03,0.005
49
+ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.525,-0.013,-0.031,0.004
50
  Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
51
+ Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.701,0.026,-0.0,0.057
52
+ Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.028,-0.004,0.056
53
+ Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.051,-0.082,0.152
54
+ Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.126,0.064,0.208
55
+ Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.194,0.134,0.255
56
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.13,0.256
57
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.168,0.303
58
+ Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.28,0.198,0.357
59
+ Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.326,0.47
60
+ Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.509,0.646
61
+ Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.588,0.518,0.647
62
+ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.117,-0.205,-0.044
63
+ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.039,-0.081,-0.007
64
+ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.04,-0.07,-0.015
65
+ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.299,0.625,-0.027,-0.061,0.0
66
  Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
67
+ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.002,-0.054,0.044
68
+ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.026,-0.095,0.112
69
+ Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.103,0.052,0.168
70
+ Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.173,0.115,0.231
71
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.168,0.107,0.232
72
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.213,0.142,0.283
73
+ Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.261,0.19,0.328
74
+ Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.321,0.445
75
+ Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.572,0.502,0.634
76
+ Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.577,0.512,0.637
77
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.12,-0.228,-0.035
78
+ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.041,-0.067,-0.014
79
+ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.425,-0.042,-0.083,-0.002
80
+ Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.029,-0.059,0.004
81
+ Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.002,-0.046,0.051
82
  Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
83
+ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.024,-0.13,0.138
84
+ Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.101,0.02,0.206
85
+ Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.171,0.103,0.244
86
+ Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.166,0.1,0.238
87
+ Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.212,0.139,0.288
88
+ Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.169,0.351
89
+ Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.296,0.466
90
+ Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.571,0.493,0.638
91
+ Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.576,0.499,0.637
92
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.147,-0.257,-0.053
93
+ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.066,-0.197,0.068
94
+ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.068,-0.188,0.057
95
+ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.054,-0.18,0.076
96
+ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.027,-0.127,0.087
97
+ TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.024,-0.16,0.115
98
  TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
99
+ TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.079,0.008,0.166
100
+ TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.151,0.042,0.258
101
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.146,0.021,0.264
102
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.192,0.062,0.31
103
+ TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.242,0.133,0.346
104
+ TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.875,1.0,0.367,0.276,0.452
105
+ TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.561,0.46,0.657
106
+ TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.565,0.468,0.662
107
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.245,-0.375,-0.148
108
+ Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.158,-0.281,-0.077
109
+ Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.159,-0.27,-0.092
110
+ Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.144,-0.262,-0.068
111
+ Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.115,-0.202,-0.054
112
+ Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.112,-0.26,-0.02
113
+ Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.086,-0.199,-0.009
114
  Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
115
+ Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.078,-0.041,0.168
116
+ Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.073,-0.055,0.172
117
+ Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.123,-0.008,0.224
118
+ Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.176,0.105,0.25
119
+ Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.257,0.367
120
+ Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.523,0.445,0.597
121
+ Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.528,0.449,0.602
122
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.49,-0.242
123
+ Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.255,-0.359,-0.168
124
+ Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.257,-0.356,-0.171
125
+ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.241,-0.342,-0.154
126
+ Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.208,-0.3,-0.13
127
+ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.206,-0.322,-0.114
128
+ Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.177,-0.347,-0.044
129
+ Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.084,-0.201,0.04
130
  Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
131
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.005,-0.059,0.039
132
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.049,-0.009,0.106
133
+ Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.107,0.03,0.194
134
+ Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.255,0.176,0.338
135
+ Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.483,0.391,0.567
136
+ Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.488,0.399,0.572
137
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.488,-0.218
138
+ AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.354,-0.162
139
+ AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.25,-0.353,-0.162
140
+ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.234,-0.345,-0.149
141
+ AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.202,-0.302,-0.12
142
+ AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.199,-0.312,-0.111
143
+ AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.171,-0.359,-0.021
144
+ AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.078,-0.208,0.052
145
+ AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.005,-0.04,0.055
146
  AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
147
+ AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.054,0.005,0.11
148
+ AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.112,0.026,0.209
149
+ AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.259,0.166,0.35
150
+ AutoARIMA,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.486,0.386,0.577
151
+ AutoARIMA,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.491,0.395,0.58
152
+ AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.42,-0.584,-0.283
153
+ AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.443,-0.216
154
+ AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.322,-0.451,-0.215
155
+ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.435,-0.202
156
+ AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.271,-0.395,-0.165
157
+ AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.268,-0.405,-0.162
158
+ AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.238,-0.449,-0.066
159
+ AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.14,-0.289,0.008
160
+ AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.052,-0.118,0.009
161
+ AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.057,-0.124,-0.005
162
  AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
163
+ AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.061,-0.025,0.161
164
+ AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.216,0.121,0.317
165
+ AutoETS,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.456,0.355,0.549
166
+ AutoETS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.462,0.365,0.555
167
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.512,-0.719,-0.337
168
+ AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.406,-0.585,-0.264
169
+ AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.408,-0.577,-0.266
170
+ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.389,-0.555,-0.247
171
+ AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.353,-0.488,-0.235
172
+ AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.542,-0.204
173
+ AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.318,-0.529,-0.154
174
+ AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.214,-0.333,-0.118
175
+ AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.12,-0.241,-0.031
176
+ AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.126,-0.264,-0.027
177
+ AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.065,-0.193,0.024
178
  AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
179
+ AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.165,0.111,0.215
180
+ AutoTheta,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.421,0.332,0.503
181
+ AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.427,0.334,0.515
182
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.811,-1.075,-0.59
183
+ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.684,-0.918,-0.498
184
+ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.686,-0.901,-0.515
185
+ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.664,-0.888,-0.484
186
+ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.801,-0.472
187
+ Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.872,-0.42
188
+ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.125,-0.579,-0.824,-0.381
189
+ Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.454,-0.579,-0.346
190
+ Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.341,-0.512,-0.213
191
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.349,-0.539,-0.2
192
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.275,-0.464,-0.138
193
+ Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.198,-0.273,-0.125
194
  Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
195
+ Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.306,0.221,0.392
196
+ Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.314,0.217,0.405
197
+ Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.61,-2.18,-1.183
198
+ Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.427,-1.861,-1.056
199
+ Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.431,-1.857,-1.076
200
+ Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.399,-1.824,-1.038
201
+ Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.337,-1.735,-1.009
202
+ Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.332,-1.759,-0.974
203
+ Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.276,-1.915,-0.852
204
+ Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.097,-1.48,-0.802
205
+ Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.934,-1.31,-0.642
206
+ Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.944,-1.364,-0.629
207
+ Naive,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.838,-1.216,-0.551
208
+ Naive,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.727,-1.011,-0.497
209
+ Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.441,-0.644,-0.284
210
  Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
211
+ Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.011,-0.019,0.03
212
+ Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.638,-2.219,-1.211
213
+ Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.453,-1.88,-1.093
214
+ Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.457,-1.885,-1.102
215
+ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.425,-1.836,-1.076
216
+ Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.362,-1.756,-1.048
217
+ Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.357,-1.757,-0.995
218
+ Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.301,-1.962,-0.88
219
+ Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.119,-1.512,-0.815
220
+ Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.955,-1.336,-0.664
221
+ Drift,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.965,-1.381,-0.653
222
+ Drift,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.858,-1.247,-0.575
223
+ Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.745,-1.06,-0.502
224
+ Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.457,-0.679,-0.276
225
+ Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.011,-0.031,0.019
226
  Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0